Game plans, tactics and all that jazz

[Chook 14,470]

22 hours ago, DEE fence said:

Two Rucks seems to be the key now days, Saints have two, smash Hawks who lost McEvoy and had one ruck. Dogs went in without a spare, got touched up by us. I haven't looked across all games but just watching the Dees and a couple of other matches I really feel like the game has turned a bit and the so called demise of the ruck was premature. Also kudos to us for our use of wingers as well, we are trend setters. 'Pat's self on back for something he had nothing to do with'.

And dare I say it, but the one thing the rules committee got right. 

I reckon the Lions started doing it with Robinson and McLuggage in 2019 and we were left very much behind the pack. I was screaming for us to get wingers all year. Goody must have heard me.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Added % goals conceded and number of i50s conceded.  Some teams are conceding lots of i50s, and lots of scores from them.

I think the goals conceded per inside-50 stems back to 2017. I recall we were okay to let the opposition take shots but pushed them into low % areas as much as possible (undermined by endless easy entries on the rebound). What seems to have improved in the stats and by eye is not letting them get in there in the first place, and nullifying more shots on goal through aerial interceptions. Really need to somehow find the current range and type of shots taken, by mark or at ground-level, compared to previous years. 

[layzie 28,708]

14 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Added % goals conceded and number of i50s conceded.  Some teams are conceding lots of i50s, and lots of scores from them.

Thanks Watson that's brilliant!

[DEE fence 4,448]

We are witnessing Coaching brilliance, truly remarkable era. Am going early but sincerely believe at the end of his career it will be Goodwin > Sheedy or even Scott and = with Clarkson. 

I think of these players (ANB/Spargo/Harmes/Fritsch/Bowey/Petty/Langdon/Smith/Sparrow/Jordan) elsewhere and they would be solid players, not part of the most lethal team defence of all time. I have to go back to Carlton when Doull was playing to think of a peer. This is directly a product of Goodwin and co.

I know our A graders are amazing  but was looking at GWS with brilliance on every line and the thing that parses the two is the role playing, a product of coaching. We are like Golden State ATM.

I really want everyone to understand that it is a full ground defence, and the idea that small forwards ha e to kick goals is yesterday's news. I am happy for ANB Spargo and Kozzie to kick none because their play is setting up feasts for everyone. Some posters need to understand the new metrics.

[Watson11 1,882]

Latest defensive numbers update after round 5.  An interesting stat mentioned by Gerard Healy is that if you redid the 2021 ladder based on expected goal kicking accuracy, Freo would have finished 5th last year.  They may be looking at a top 4 spot, although their wins are all against teams sitting bottom 4 defensively, and they did struggle to score against the Saints.    

[binman 37,989]

Such a great table Watson, many thanks for updating it regularly.  

Blimey - the bombers concede a score every second time their opposition get the ball inside their fifty.

I thought their defence was pretty good last year in terms of implementing a solid zone - was the main reason why i thought they would do ok. Probably more a function of lazy mids. 

And the tiger's have fallen off a cliff defensively. I'm sure they would have been top 4 in this table in 2017 to 2020.

The other interesting one is the blues.

To my eye they don't look fit enough, and as result struggle to maintain strong all team defense the whole game, as evidenced by the huge margins Port and the hawks almost ran down. Omac and Mc Govern out have probably hurt them too. 

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by binman

[Dee Zephyr 17,428]

Wasn’t sure where to post the below, came across it browsing ESPN. I found it an interesting read, I realise Champion Data isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but all that really stood out to me was our rankings.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/33768562/afl-2022-champion-data-deep-dive-stats-reveal-premiership-contenders-fremantle-dockers-melbourne-biggest-danger

[Watson11 1,882]

11 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Wasn’t sure where to post the below, came across it browsing ESPN. I found it an interesting read, I realise Champion Data isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but all that really stood out to me was our rankings.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/33768562/afl-2022-champion-data-deep-dive-stats-reveal-premiership-contenders-fremantle-dockers-melbourne-biggest-danger

Thanks.  Interesting stats.  I don't mind it when analysts dig for stats which show your game plan will stand up.  For those who don't read the article, we are top 4 in all 7 of the key stats.  Carlton are top 5 in none of them and bottom 8 in 5!  Will be a fascinating game between Carlton and Freo this week.  

[binman 37,989]

6 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Thanks.  Interesting stats.  I don't mind it when analysts dig for stats which show your game plan will stand up.  For those who don't read the article, we are top 4 in all 7 of the key stats.  Carlton are top 5 in none of them and bottom 8 in 5!  Will be a fascinating game between Carlton and Freo this week.  

The blus will not be able to score enough tobeat freo.

I rate freo very highly. Longmuire has based their game plan on ours.

But crucially has been implementing it since he took the reins.

It is a model that takes a long time to get it to the level we did last season. 

Freo are a couple of years behind us, but very much on the right track. 

They probably need to add some quality forwards though. 

[Watson11 1,882]

21 minutes ago, binman said:

The blus will not be able to score enough tobeat freo.

I rate freo very highly. Longmuire has based their game plan on ours.

But crucially has been implementing it since he took the reins.

It is a model that takes a long time to get it to the level we did last season. 

Freo are a couple of years behind us, but very much on the right track. 

They probably need to add some quality forwards though. 

Agree re Freo.  I expect the wheels to fall off Carlton this year.  Take away Curnow and McKay goals (through good defence, bad winter weather, more pressure on Carlton mids or injury) and Carlton are bottom 6 in my opinion.

Gerard Healy had an interesting stat re Freo.  If their kicking for goal was at the "expected accuracy" rate in 2021, they would have finished 5th (in front of the bulldogs).  They have improved their defence again this year and are kicking straight.  

[binman 37,989]

1 minute ago, Watson11 said:

 They have improved their defence again this year and are kicking straight.  

And have a gun midfield, and in Darcy a genuine elite ruck.

[Roger Mellie 3,487]

32 minutes ago, binman said:

The blus will not be able to score enough tobeat freo.

I rate freo very highly. Longmuire has based their game plan on ours.

But crucially has been implementing it since he took the reins.

It is a model that takes a long time to get it to the level we did last season. 

Freo are a couple of years behind us, but very much on the right track. 

They probably need to add some quality forwards though. 

Agree! Even though Freo really haven't beaten a decent side, I think they're a solid finals contender. The game against the Blues will be telling. They certainly need more punch in the forward line. I can't remember if they bagged a decent forward with thier boon draft picks. One thing I do remember is they got the fitness guy who spent a year here under Burgess. I'm sure that'll serve them very well. I think they might struggle if Darcy is injured for any length of time.

[tiers 2,761]

41 minutes ago, binman said:

I rate freo very highly. Longmuire has based their game plan on ours.

Freo are a couple of years behind us, but very much on the right track.

Freo's leading midfielders are Fyfe and Mundy, both on the way out in terms of age.

No matter how hard they try to copy us, without players like Clarry, Trac, Gawn, Jackson, Viney, Langdon, Brayshaw, Sparrow, Jordon, ANB, Kozzie, who all have plenty of footy life left, rotating through the midfield they will be struggling.

It's not just the system, it's the right players for the roles. We have them in place, no one else has.

[Fat Tony 4,403]

4 minutes ago, tiers said:

Freo's leading midfielders are Fyfe and Mundy, both on the way out in terms of age.

No matter how hard they try to copy us, without players like Clarry, Trac, Gawn, Jackson, Viney, Langdon, Brayshaw, Sparrow, Jordon, ANB, Kozzie, who all have plenty of footy life left, rotating through the midfield they will be struggling.

It's not just the system, it's the right players for the roles. We have them in place, no one else has.

The Blues won in 1995 with veterans Madden, Kernahan, Williams, Bradley, Dean and Spalding but also needed the injection of youth in Koutoufides, Christou,  Camporeale and Ratten. Our list profile is obviously much better than the Dockers, but it is possible for ships to align and to win it with a mix of veterans and young rising stars.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,089]

I haven't read much of this thread so apologies if this has been raised.

I've been to 3 games live this year and paid close attention to opposition kick outs from our goals. We are absolutely toying with them. We allow them to do almost what they want inside our 50. 

It's once they get to half back/ wing where we clamp down and literally wait for them to make a mistake. They have to take some risky kicks to get through or they kick to a contest which is what we want.

I used to get frustrated with the ease teams would run the ball out, but now just watch and admire how much faith the players have in their system.

[Engorged Onion 9,262]

The match against the Tigers reinforced to me that Goodwin and Co has a plan B (yes I am being cheeky here). But really that Plan B, is an extension of Plan A.

The way I see it, if we assume teams will 'back their system' against ours, it plays into our hands of our (Plan A)...things such as

• Our rolling defensive system cuts down opportunities to kick on the 45 to switch play across the centre and spread us (creating gaps for free players)
• Due to this, we force long kicks down the line, to wherever Gawn, Jackson, Brown, May Lever is on slow plays
• On fast plays exiting our F50, opposing teams get dump kicks, typically mopped up by our defensive pressure by our forwards and mids, and repeat entries into F50 occur...typically towards the pockets if it is defensively packed.
• If a team gets it out moving towards our D50, due to our strength of the back 6 - we can then typically rebound quickly and find space to accurately deliver a ball to a forward
• Our strength inside AND then outside on the spread  (post contested ball) allows us deep entries that either gives us another opportunity to keep the ball in (set up when a point occurs) or it's out of bound and we set up for dump kicks and also the expectation that we're likely to win the clearance.

All this works in our favour if a team chooses to try to negate all that (which moves them away from backing their system presumably)..and you get what we saw last night.

• 3 times the amount of scoring shots due to an inability for the team to get the ball regularly beyond centre square with any 'real intent', due to all players parked between our goal square and center square - with May or Petty acting as sweeper
• The challenge then becomes for the team to switch, and with Jordon, Brayshaw, Spargo, ANB, Langdon all valuing defense, typically slowing down, and then we are back to a slow play where by it falls to Plan A again (for us) - forcing long kicks down the line. Alternatively trying to go up the center, but risking interceptions and the quick rebound into our F50

Anyway, that's why I think our system is pretty amazing.... because our one woods of Plan A are are better than any other teams, and if teams go to trying to do something alternate, it still plays into our strengths, quite inadvertently.

It'll take either injury, masses of individual brilliance, or umpires, or inaccurate kicking to stop us.

Feel free to add any other thoughts on how the system works please.

 

[Watson11 1,882]

Update of defensive stats.  Definitely seems to be locked in to some averages now with only minor movement each week. 

Freo are putting up impressive numbers.  Carlton were ranked third for i50s before last week (56 per game).  Freo restricted them to just 38 i50s which is pretty impressive.  If Freo's system stands up against Geelog this week then I'll call a Freo v Melb grand final.  Brisbane are dangerous offensively but when finals pressure hits their mids are too loose and slow (bottom 6 at conceding i50s).

[Binmans PA 26,021]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Update of defensive stats.  Definitely seems to be locked in to some averages now with only minor movement each week. 

Freo are putting up impressive numbers.  Carlton were ranked third for i50s before last week (56 per game).  Freo restricted them to just 38 i50s which is pretty impressive.  If Freo's system stands up against Geelog this week then I'll call a Freo v Melb grand final.  Brisbane are dangerous offensively but when finals pressure hits their mids are too loose and slow (bottom 6 at conceding i50s).

Carlton are also toast for this season as Pittonet is out for 3 months. Of course, they could always change their strategy for the better to compensate, like we did when Max went down in 2017 (we became less obvious from clearance), but in both games where Pittonet effectively hasn't played, the Blues have been nowhere. They struggle to win clearance without his taps to advantage. 

[layzie 28,708]

11 hours ago, Watson11 said:

 

This is my favourite chart of anything at the moment. 

Edited April 26, 2022 by layzie

[Engorged Onion 9,262]

If we were watching a press conference after a loss, and a question was asked to opposition coach -

"You looked as though you prepared really well, and you were able to really nullify their strengths"

What strengths would most likely be nullified, and what strategy(ies) would be used to do so?

TIA...

[Ollie fan 2,125]

“At selection, we chose defenders who were very strong and had very quick reflexes which meant that they were able to withstand the Melbourne forward pressure and get kicks out of the backline fast and accurately. We then moved the ball into our forward line low, fast and hard, and our defenders moved up to create a press and lock the ball in.” 
 

(and we paid the umpires a LOT of money)

[WheeloRatings 906]

First time poster here. For anyone interested, I have set up a website where I publish a wide variety of AFL stats for the last couple of seasons (among other things). @binman suggested I post the links to my site on this thread, which looks like a great read.

Team Stats

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html

Player Stats

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html

[Fat Tony 4,403]

I wonder if Langdon gets a hard tag, we should shift him to half back and play a 7 man defence and push Kossie, ANB, TMac or Fristch to the wing (with just 5 on 5 in our forward line). Or we could subtly switch Bowey or Hunt onto the open wing, which will be a better option when Salem returns.

Tagging a half back is more difficult in a team defence and against us it means Lever or May will be loose if they push an extra forward into the stoppages.

As much as we won't Langdon to out run his opponent, we also want to have some tactics to counter him getting a hard tag.

[jnrmac 18,953]

On 4/29/2022 at 7:43 PM, WheeloRatings said:

First time poster here. For anyone interested, I have set up a website where I publish a wide variety of AFL stats for the last couple of seasons (among other things). @binman suggested I post the links to my site on this thread, which looks like a great read.

Team Stats

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html

Player Stats

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html

Nice work, thanks

[Watson11 1,882]

Update to defensive stats courtesy of @WheeloRatings.  We were bad against the Hawks conceding scores from 52% of inside 50s.  We also broke the 50% barrier against the bombers in round 3.  We only did it once last year (Pies game). 

Freo have jumped above us for scores conceded per i50 (but not goals). The site has an interesting stat Play On %.  Freo are #1 defensively in that stat (stopping opponents playing on).  We are #3.  We are #1 on the other side (offensively playing on), while Freo are #18.