THE RUN HOME 2020

[Redleg 37,897]

3 minutes ago, SFebes said:

ahhhh the Melbourne way, rely on others for us to scrape in. It'd be the worst possible thing for us to make finals now, we dont deserve it and members dont deserve Goodwin to continue his contract, gotta laugh though.

But Dogs deserve it playing every game at Metricon and being based a few minutes away?

[SFebes 4,692]

1 minute ago, Redleg said:

But Dogs deserve it playing every game at Metricon and being based a few minutes away?

It doesn't bother me what other clubs do mate, only ours.

[cantstandyasam 700]

13 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Bulldogs won't lose to Hawthorn or Fremantle.

Then again I didn't think GWS would lose to Adelaide.

Having said that Bulldogs will probably drop one of those games, we'll beat GWS but lose to Essendon.

It's the Melbourne way.

I think we should market "The Melbourne Way" it certainly sums us up.

[DeeZee 6,801]

Freo are good enough to beat the Bulldogs 

[3Dee 1,153]

38 minutes ago, Demonland said:

We'll beat GWS but lose to Essendon.

Oh absolutely lock it in

[old dee 22,946]

The worse that could happen is for us to beat GWS 

[titan_uranus 22,622]

Current state of play:

Optimism

If we win both games, then we make finals provided any one of the following happens:

1. Collingwood loses to Gold Coast and Port
2. St Kilda loses to West Coast and GWS (and we bridge the 7% gap between them and us)
3. The Dogs lose to either Hawthorn or Fremantle

If all three of these happen, we can still finish as high as 6th.

Pessimism

If we lose both games, then we can finish as low as 13th if:

1. Carlton beats Adelaide
2. Fremantle beats North Melbourne and the Dogs, or only one of them but bridges the 18% gap between us

2 hours ago, SFebes said:

ahhhh the Melbourne way, rely on others for us to scrape in. It'd be the worst possible thing for us to make finals now, we dont deserve it and members dont deserve Goodwin to continue his contract, gotta laugh though.

If we finish in the top 8, by definition we deserve to play finals.

[SFebes 4,692]

1 minute ago, titan_uranus said:

Current state of play:

Optimism

If we win both games, then we make finals provided any one of the following happens:

1. Collingwood loses to Gold Coast and Port
2. St Kilda loses to West Coast and GWS (and we bridge the 7% gap between them and us)
3. The Dogs lose to either Hawthorn or Fremantle

If all three of these happen, we can still finish as high as 6th.

Pessimism

If we lose both games, then we can finish as low as 13th if:

1. Carlton beats Adelaide
2. Fremantle beats North Melbourne and the Dogs, or only one of them but bridges the 18% gap between us

If we finish in the top 8, by definition we deserve to play finals.

By definition yes mate, but with our own eyes, no. Also great work on the fixture thread, our draw is marginally only slightly worse than Geelongs, what are your thoughts on that? We’ve definitely been given a tougher run but we usually travel well. Good info thanks 

[Pates 9,537]

What has been a constant frustration for me watching Melbourne over the years is that we seldom finish the season well. 2018 was the exception to that and we stormed into finals. Aside from that we mostly end the year on the back of 4+ losses in a row. Look at Roos' final year, we were a chance to make the finals but limped home and gave Roos the send off his heaviest defeat.

Just once I would like to see us finish the year well regardless of whether we make the finals. Force the other teams have to get the job done as well.

[SFebes 4,692]

1 hour ago, Pates said:

What has been a constant frustration for me watching Melbourne over the years is that we seldom finish the season well. 2018 was the exception to that and we stormed into finals. Aside from that we mostly end the year on the back of 4+ losses in a row. Look at Roos' final year, we were a chance to make the finals but limped home and gave Roos the send off his heaviest defeat.

Just once I would like to see us finish the year well regardless of whether we make the finals. Force the other teams have to get the job done as well.

Would love to see stats on this, good point, has been going on for as long as I remember with a couple of exceptions!

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,321]

Saints could easily lose to WC.

Although you’d imagine if GWS somehow lose to us, they won’t bother showing up in rd 18 to St Kilda.

Bulldogs being scheduled to play Freo in Cairns is a mini bonus. That venue appears to be a bit of a “Bermuda Triangle”.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,321]

1 hour ago, Pates said:

What has been a constant frustration for me watching Melbourne over the years is that we seldom finish the season well. 2018 was the exception to that and we stormed into finals. Aside from that we mostly end the year on the back of 4+ losses in a row. Look at Roos' final year, we were a chance to make the finals but limped home and gave Roos the send off his heaviest defeat.

Just once I would like to see us finish the year well regardless of whether we make the finals. Force the other teams have to get the job done as well.

Good point.

I think our record in final round games since 2006 is something like 2-12. I’d imagine our record in second last round games is just as bad.

[Rab D Nesbitt 7,303]

The whole debate about whether we deserve to play finals is a bit of a moot point because by having a final 8 the AFL are rewarding mediocrity. 

By finishing 8th we will have proven to be the best infuriatingly mediocre team over a 17 game season and therefore worthy of a place in the current finals system. 

[Pates 9,537]

6 minutes ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

The whole debate about whether we deserve to play finals is a bit of a moot point because by having a final 8 the AFL are rewarding mediocrity. 

By finishing 8th we will have proven to be the best infuriatingly mediocre team over a 17 game season and therefore worthy of a place in the current finals system. 

I suspect you wouldn’t be a fan of some commentators ideas to have a “wildcard round” to extend it to final 10. 

I think final 8 is fine but it does tend to show that the 7th and 8th teams are mostly making up the numbers for the additional games. 

Given the craziness of the year I would’ve loved the AFL to go a different direction and do top 6 play off. Top two get week off, 3v6 & 4v5 play off. Winners of that play top two. Winners play grand final. 

No double chances and it’s the 6 best teams in the competition. 

[SFebes 4,692]

8 minutes ago, Pates said:

I suspect you wouldn’t be a fan of some commentators ideas to have a “wildcard round” to extend it to final 10. 

I think final 8 is fine but it does tend to show that the 7th and 8th teams are mostly making up the numbers for the additional games. 

Given the craziness of the year I would’ve loved the AFL to go a different direction and do top 6 play off. Top two get week off, 3v6 & 4v5 play off. Winners of that play top two. Winners play grand final. 

No double chances and it’s the 6 best teams in the competition. 

That makes me miss playing footy Pates, those were the days, too fat and slow now. I agree the 8 rewards mediocrity, but if they didn't have that middle bunch vying for a spot there'd be so many one-sided games in the last part of the season. I'm also not a fan of a wildcard either. I do wonder if these hub set ups will get the AFL thinking of a two tier comp or a conference style set up going forward, may never happen but it makes me wonder sometimes, how or if it would even work, people who watch US sports may be better to comment. 

[spirit of norm smith 13,161]

11 hours ago, old dee said:

The worse that could happen is for us to beat GWS 

I’d take that 

[old dee 22,946]

21 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

I’d take that 

Depends what you what you want to achieve before the start of the 2021 season. 

[Rab D Nesbitt 7,303]

12 minutes ago, Pates said:

I suspect you wouldn’t be a fan of some commentators ideas to have a “wildcard round” to extend it to final 10. 

I think final 8 is fine but it does tend to show that the 7th and 8th teams are mostly making up the numbers for the additional games. 

Given the craziness of the year I would’ve loved the AFL to go a different direction and do top 6 play off. Top two get week off, 3v6 & 4v5 play off. Winners of that play top two. Winners play grand final. 

No double chances and it’s the 6 best teams in the competition. 

Hi there Pates. 

Yeah. Definitely not a fan of the more is better argument. I guess my post was about the juxtaposition (and frustration) of following a mediocre team within a competition that actively rewards mediocrity. 

At the end of the day someone mediocre will finish in 8th place. What makes another mediocre side more worthy of that place than us and who gets to decide that ? 

I remember being fascinated by the concept of a finals knockout system at the end of a home and away season when I first moved over here. Elimination finals, qualifying finals, preliminary finals baffled me at first. Surely if you finish top then you win! I then came to really embrace how unique the final five system was to what is a unique game. 

Then we entered an era where everyone has to be seen as a winner and five expanded to six and now eight which appears to have more to do with eliminating dead rubbers at the bottom end of the ladder (and money) at the expense of some integrity at the top end. 

[Coq au vin 754]

1 hour ago, Pates said:

I suspect you wouldn’t be a fan of some commentators ideas to have a “wildcard round” to extend it to final 10. 

I think final 8 is fine but it does tend to show that the 7th and 8th teams are mostly making up the numbers for the additional games. 

Given the craziness of the year I would’ve loved the AFL to go a different direction and do top 6 play off. Top two get week off, 3v6 & 4v5 play off. Winners of that play top two. Winners play grand final. 

No double chances and it’s the 6 best teams in the competition. 

Great idea. Fair and simple.

[titan_uranus 22,622]

11 hours ago, SFebes said:

By definition yes mate, but with our own eyes, no. Also great work on the fixture thread, our draw is marginally only slightly worse than Geelongs, what are your thoughts on that? We’ve definitely been given a tougher run but we usually travel well. Good info thanks 

I don't think it's fair to suggest that the fixture is the sole, or even dominant, reason we're struggling. 

I do, though, think it's a factor that weighs on us when things aren't going well.

Geelong have coped much better and are showing that when you're in form and confident, you can ride out this sort of fixture.

I think it's possible we are showing that if you're slightly off, lacking confidence and form, the fixture could compound those issues significantly.

I also think that, although the numbers are close, the extra four-day break, combined with having no bye in either of the two compressed periods, is quite significant.

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Saints could easily lose to WC.

Although you’d imagine if GWS somehow lose to us, they won’t bother showing up in rd 18 to St Kilda.

Bulldogs being scheduled to play Freo in Cairns is a mini bonus. That venue appears to be a bit of a “Bermuda Triangle”.

Not sure about that.

Assume that in Round 17 we win, St Kilda loses, Collingwood wins and the Dogs win.

You'd then have Collingwood 6th on 9.5, St Kilda 7th on 9, the Dogs 8th on 9, us 9th on 8 and GWS 10th on 8.

GWS would still only be a game behind St Kilda (in 7th) and with the chance to beat them in the last round, take the four points and do percentage damage, theoretically.

GWS plays St Kilda in Round 18 before every game other than North Melbourne v West Coast, so they won't know for sure if their season is done (as, even in the above circumstances, they'll still need the Dogs and us to lose our Round 18 matches). So, if they have the sort of attitude we seem to lack, they could come out and beat St Kilda and then wait to see what we and the Dogs do afterwards.

[SFebes 4,692]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

I don't think it's fair to suggest that the fixture is the sole, or even dominant, reason we're struggling. 

I do, though, think it's a factor that weighs on us when things aren't going well.

Geelong have coped much better and are showing that when you're in form and confident, you can ride out this sort of fixture.

I think it's possible we are showing that if you're slightly off, lacking confidence and form, the fixture could compound those issues significantly.

I also think that, although the numbers are close, the extra four-day break, combined with having no bye in either of the two compressed periods, is quite significant.

 

We had won 4 out of the last 5 so we were in form. However I don't think we had been playing as well as people think, but found a way to win. I do get what you're saying and it's totally fair. But we have also ran out the last two games quite well physically, so I don't buy into the fatigue factor as much. We definitely lack confidence, I personally think this comes from the top (Goodwin). Anyway, we were still playing terribly early in the season without travel, so my lack of confidence in Simon stands. Thanks for proving facts and info, appreciated by all.

Edited September 9, 2020 by SFebes

[3Dee 1,153]

We lost to Brisbane (4pts) and Geelong(3pts), teams I think we match up well against and can compete with.. we just need to make it there. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,321]

We're cooked fellas.

We can throw the "St Kilda losing two games option" out the window. 

 

Eagles missing pretty much their entire midfield tomorrow night including Shuey, Yeo, Sheed and Redden.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/498217/decimated-eagles-make-five-forced-changes-but-no-excuses

 

[Diamond_Jim 11,940]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We're cooked fellas.

We can throw the "St Kilda losing two games option" out the window. 

 

Eagles missing pretty much their entire midfield tomorrow night including Shuey, Yeo, Sheed and Redden.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/498217/decimated-eagles-make-five-forced-changes-but-no-excuses

 

Eagles loss last round combined with Tigers win means no top 4 for them.

The plus is that 5 or 6 gets them their first final in Perth. Fourth would see them play all finals outside Perth.

I think they are content with going home to Perth for almost three weeks and then return to Brisbane or even better Adelaide for the second round of the finals as compared to five more weeks post end of the home and away in the Qld hub.

Their last game for the home and away season is on Thursday night which means they will comfortably make the two week WA quarantine. Of course their competitor is another matter

Edited September 9, 2020 by Diamond_Jim

[Demonland 65,916]

4 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We're cooked fellas.

We can throw the "St Kilda losing two games option" out the window. 

 

Eagles missing pretty much their entire midfield tomorrow night including Shuey, Yeo, Sheed and Redden.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/498217/decimated-eagles-make-five-forced-changes-but-no-excuses