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Posted (edited)
On 8/17/2019 at 9:15 PM, 640MD said:

Probably get howled down for this but

why not May for captain if he comes back with the correct skin folds ?

he does not take a back ward step, goes hard at it !  And he had some experience .

What are u talking about? I had him pegged for this in another thread about 6 weeks ago!!

And its not a popularity, good service, my dad works at club etc, etc

its based on ability TO DO THE JOB!!

NUFF SAID!

Won't happen though... We are too conservative and nice!

Edited by picket fence

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Appreciate all the work mate, love this kind of post.

What are your 'selected stats' though? As I reckon even the non-fans of Petracca would admit he's played better this year than last.

Harmes has been ok this year, but would have though holistically he was far better last year. Not totally sold on the system mate.

Petracca being rated in the top 3 general forwards this year by the AFL's Player Ratings also says he's been better this year.

FWIW here's the heat map:

 

Screen Shot 2019-08-21 at 10.58.20 pm.png

In short LN ....

I am not 'fully' convinced either as..

1.  Rubbish in rubbish out effect... eg; we don't have access to the better stuff the club's get from Champion data.

2.  Player's roles and other nuances of the game aren't captured including off days, on days, a bad domestic dispute ... a freaky bounce that favours one player over another.(Milne in 2010 1st GF), crowd / umpire effect etc etc etc.

Having said that the weighted scores do tend to reflect, more often then not, D'lander views of who has played well / mediocre/average, poor, shizen etc reasonably accurately week to week (player of year votes, general views in 3 word summary / coaches votes etc).

As mentioned....i'm not totally in the "For or Against"  Tracc camp.  I just call things as i see them from match to match.

Hence why im suggesting

1.  He is playing a better season generally , albeit in a fairly different role vs 2018 and the weighted model is unable to effectively capture that nuance/change; or

2.  He is playing better in short spurts at a much higher level during those short bursts vs 2018, yet not sustaining that level.  In 2018 he wasn't hitting the heady bursts/peaks as often however he was playing at a (lower impact) level that was sustainable for longer (which impacts in a different way...maybe more effective in the long haul!??).  This difference might have arose purely from being asked to play a fairly diff role this season?  Or

3.  He is giving the appearance (at times) that he is better than 2018 but this appearance is due to the "steaming pile of dung" effect rubbing off from so many around that are playing at a much worse level than Tracc vs their 2018!

My gut feel is the answer is mostly a combo of 2 & 3 but more than likely it is also being impacted by point 1 to some degree.

As for Harmes that is a TBC for another separate convo tomorrow or when i can find the time/focus lol.  Ditto on the selected stats.

Thanks for the heat map.  I'm assuming that's this season.  I'm guessing there's no way you could also grab his 2018 map? 

Edited by Rusty Nails
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9 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

In short LN ....

Wasn't able to track down a 2018 heat map unfortunately, so that one is just this year. Gut feel is Trac has covered more area this year, last year being more based around high half forward. Definitely agree his role is a bit different this year, last year it seemed to me more like a connector between midfield and forward, whereas this year he seems more of a ground level player (exemplified by him leading the league for ground balls won inside 50).

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On 8/21/2019 at 9:19 AM, Bombay Airconditioning said:

And there in lies the problem,  Dunkley, Bont and McRae have had great years. How does Petracca’s compare to any of those 3? He doesn’t even come close, he can’t even dominate the weaker sides. If the majority of supporters think he’s had a great year that’s one thing, but if FD concur then we are in trouble. I’d rather Liam Ryan in our side right now. 

I don't know why you think comparing 3 mids who have had a great season to a forward who has the odd run through the middle.

It just doesn't stand up...

How many forwards have won a Brownlow?

It's a much easier position to dominate and get noticed.

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Wasn't able to track down a 2018 heat map unfortunately, so that one is just this year. Gut feel is Trac has covered more area this year, last year being more based around high half forward. Definitely agree his role is a bit different this year, last year it seemed to me more like a connector between midfield and forward, whereas this year he seems more of a ground level player (exemplified by him leading the league for ground balls won inside 50).

That feels about right LN.  Possibly last years 'connector' role spending a bit more time between the arcs as there's a massive drop off in R50s, intercepts & 1%ers that defenders tend to rack up.  And a drop off in i50s which would suggest (leading ground ball i50 as you have pointed out & tackles i50 up substantially on last season) he is being asked to play almost like a small forward higher towards the arc as well as getting into space to offer marking options (marks i50 up).

And last week in the ruck also!  He's now more versatile than Lewis!

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Here are some select (publicly available) stat averages on Harmes for this season vs 2018 (just highlighting a few players who have come up in discussions here for those interested... LN etc)...

image.png.366ac2192e6feba92e323a8fa2de1d48.png

Legend:  CP - Contested Possessions  UP - Uncontested  ED - Effective Disposals  DE% - Disposal Efficiency %  CM - Contested Mark  Mi50 - Marks inside 50   1% - One Percenters  CL - Clearances  R50 - Rebound 50  i50 - inside 50s   T - Tackles  Si - Score Involvements  MG - Meters Gained  TO - Turnovers  ITC - Interceptions  T5 - Tackles inside 50  TOG% - Time on Ground %  G - Goals

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And Gus...

image.png.d31e33ce5bf383e2bed5f2db88e5a08a.png

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28 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

And Gus...

image.png.d31e33ce5bf383e2bed5f2db88e5a08a.png

EAsy to see where some of the problem lies> Brayshaw is not a happy chappy at the demons

Thanks Rusty really good stats analysis

Can you do Viney??

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Kent said:

EAsy to see where some of the problem lies> Brayshaw is not a happy chappy at the demons

Thanks Rusty really good stats analysis

Can you do Viney??

I'm really just reworking / parroting stuff that's already out there Kent but thanks.  Happy to put this up on any player requested...

image.png.c6830ab135cd5826a16c260d57256206.png

 

Is it possible (pure speculation just putting it out there) that Gus has decided, at some point, after signing till 2022 that he now wants to return home (homesick) and/or to play out the rest of his career with his bro, sooner than 2022?  Or maybe the club has looked at him and to some degree agree with the article below and are looking to trade also.  Or they are both in agreement and as an assist to help get him back home we are looking at a win/win package deal for Langdon ( one of Freo’s key ball movers in 2018, trailing only Lachie Neale for inside 50s, Nathan Wilson for metres gained and Luke Ryan for marks)?

Excerpts from ESPN article in June....

..."Looking at the individuals in the Demons' midfield isn't pretty reading either.

Oliver, Harmes, Viney, Brayshaw, Nathan Jones and Christian Petracca are the club's top six for centre bounce attendances from 2018-19. All are ranked by Champion Data as average in terms of kicking efficiency, except Oliver (below average). In terms of uncontested possession percentage, Jones is listed as above average, with Brayshaw and Harmes average, Petracca and Viney below average and Oliver poor.

It's obvious Melbourne's strength on the inside is now being outweighed by the lack of spread and skill on the outside.

Which brings us to Brayshaw. The 2014 No. 3 draft pick is averaging a healthy 25 possessions, 3.2 tackles and 3.7 clearances per game, and has gained the 14th-most meters in the league this year.

But Brayshaw personifies Melbourne's midfield issues - fantastic in the contest, tough as old boots and able to find the pill, but unreliable by foot. He has committed the 11th most turnovers in the league this year, with his disposal efficiency under implied pressure and physical pressure the second-worst and fourth-worst of the league's top 50 ball-winners.

But as a high draft pick coming off a third-place finish in the Brownlow, and in the prime of his career at 23, he would still command some serious trade currency if the Demons were so inclined.

Would the Dees consider dangling his name out there to a team lacking someone of his skillset? If so, who should they target in return?".

Edited by Rusty Nails

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14 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

I'm really just reworking / parroting stuff that's already out there Kent but thanks.  Happy to put this up on any player requested...

image.png.c6830ab135cd5826a16c260d57256206.png

 

Is it possible (pure speculation just putting it out there) that Gus has decided, at some point, after signing till 2020 that he now wants to return home (homesick) and/or to play out the rest of his career with his bro, sooner than 2020?  Or maybe the club has looked at him and to some degree agree with the article below and are looking to trade also.  Or they are both in agreement and as an assist to help get him back home we are looking at a win/win package deal for Langdon ( one of Freo’s key ball movers in 2018, trailing only Lachie Neale for inside 50s, Nathan Wilson for metres gained and Luke Ryan for marks)?

Excerpts from ESPN article in June....

..."Looking at the individuals in the Demons' midfield isn't pretty reading either.

Oliver, Harmes, Viney, Brayshaw, Nathan Jones and Christian Petracca are the club's top six for centre bounce attendances from 2018-19. All are ranked by Champion Data as average in terms of kicking efficiency, except Oliver (below average). In terms of uncontested possession percentage, Jones is listed as above average, with Brayshaw and Harmes average, Petracca and Viney below average and Oliver poor.

It's obvious Melbourne's strength on the inside is now being outweighed by the lack of spread and skill on the outside.

Which brings us to Brayshaw. The 2014 No. 3 draft pick is averaging a healthy 25 possessions, 3.2 tackles and 3.7 clearances per game, and has gained the 14th-most meters in the league this year.

But Brayshaw personifies Melbourne's midfield issues - fantastic in the contest, tough as old boots and able to find the pill, but unreliable by foot. He has committed the 11th most turnovers in the league this year, with his disposal efficiency under implied pressure and physical pressure the second-worst and fourth-worst of the league's top 50 ball-winners.

But as a high draft pick coming off a third-place finish in the Brownlow, and in the prime of his career at 23, he would still command some serious trade currency if the Demons were so inclined.

Would the Dees consider dangling his name out there to a team lacking someone of his skillset? If so, who should they target in return?".

Tracks as captain. 

He can give a maccas voucher out after game for best effort on the field. 

Like auskick 

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17 hours ago, picket fence said:

What are u talking about? I had him pegged for this in another thread about 6 weeks ago!!

And its not a popularity, good service, my dad works at club etc, etc

its based on ability TO DO THE JOB!!

NUFF SAID!

Won't happen though... We are too conservative and nice!

I cannot disagree with your comments in any way.   I think our decision makers, on and off the field need to be better and think more deeply than they have,  Not enough deep thought this year at all.   Be extremely glad when its finished and I will eventually look forward to 2020    Cheers

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Should be a poll...

TMAC for Captain - I think his season was cooked with his foot, but nowhere have i seen that he does not care or try, he is just Greg Chappell in his run of six ducks. He is as articulate as Lever or Gawn, generally much less injured and until this season has been very reliable for getting on the park. Doesn't sook, is plenty tough. Also he prospered under every coach, even Neeld, he has a Gen X brain/heart, in a Gen Y/Millennials body.

Gawn is awesome, but I worry the Captain thing would be a poison chalice for him some reason, I live in permanent fear that his knee will blow up if he is made Captain (i do already to be honest, it is just the neuroses would be worse). That he is a Leader is without doubt.

I love Viney deeply, but never thought he is a leader, to me he will still be a kid even when he is 30. This guy is the foot (no pun intended) soldier everyone likes, that dies in the final reel of the movie (Archy/Mark Lee)

Melksham i respect but i think he can go missing.

I wouldn't mind Nev as leader either probably equal 2nd maybe 3rd choice. Would be left field for some and i am a little bit worried about his injuries this year I think his hard as nails style has caught up with him. But he is a Boss.

Lever has the brain for it, but he is a bit too much of an Arabian horse (likely to break down).

Jones plays another year off the bench doing midfield/forward things. 

So my list:

1, TMAC

2, GAWN

2/3, LORD NEV

4, LEVER

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A solid hint from Goodwin that Max will be captain next year?

"He's someone who has worked his way through to a space where he wants to be great. That's a great thing for our footy club to have someone who can pick up the boys that are coming through, lead them in the right way and demand the behaviours that we need to take this club forward again." Captain Max?

Can't wait till it happens!

As an aside, found his kicking boots today: 3.1.  Great leading from the front!

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3 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

A solid hint from Goodwin that Max will be captain next year?

"He's someone who has worked his way through to a space where he wants to be great. That's a great thing for our footy club to have someone who can pick up the boys that are coming through, lead them in the right way and demand the behaviours that we need to take this club forward again." Captain Max?

Can't wait till it happens!

As an aside, found his kicking boots today: 3.1.  Great leading from the front!

I get the same feeling (fingers crossed!)

Completely agree! Today was a dead rubber after a terrible year. Most had already thrown in the towel, but Maxxy fought to the end. One of the things we need to become great (again) is pride and that has to come from the top!

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Has to be Maxy

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Forget the personalities and let us look at what we want the captain to do and what abilities should he have. Let us treat it as a job application.

1. In absence of runners, someone who can weigh up the game and organise the team. Footy smarts to put it bluntly and the respect of players so they will do what he demands. Think Hodge, Selwood, Cotchin and Hurn. In the event of a run or when the opposition is on top someone who can re-organise on field and is the extension of the coach

2. Someone who provides leadership on and off the field. The position is Club Captain not match day captain. Leads by example in games, at training and away from the club

3. Media savvy. No potting players in public, ability to front the cameras and take the heat and questions. Being articulate and able to speak in public is good

4. Ability to develop and grow into the role and commit to further training and development

5. Have some leadership experience 

Having said this I am happy for others to add to the job description and requirements for the job. There is no-one on the list who satisfies all those requirements but some who cauldron grow into it. I suspect the idea behind Viney and Jones is the hope between them they provide the above and create a succession plan. I think the Viney/Jones hybrid lacks footy noise and ability to lift and lead. 

If need be leave Viney there but add Max and develop him as he has most of the skills and the potential to grow in the job. Then groom others in the group for the role IMO Lever is a natural born leader but has dodgy knees, T Mac and Melksham come to mind

Comments requested

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Max is the only one who can pick up the team and drag it over the line. 

Viney has had a good crack, but he like Jones is a Blue Collar hard Worker

Max to Captain on his own

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Posted (edited)

I now believe Gawn is the ideal candidate but conditional we play two ruckman. Today he was far more effective with Preuss to share the ruck burden with him  WC and Brisbane have shown that the modern game can have two big fellas every game.

Edited by america de cali
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Jones has been captain for 3 years too long, really. 

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3 minutes ago, praha said:

Jones has been captain for 3 years too long, really. 

I would have made Lewis Captain when he arrived. 

4 Flags talks. 

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3 minutes ago, praha said:

Jones has been captain for 3 years too long, really. 

most posts infuriate me @praha, and on this one - I concur.

apols for the backhander...

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Gawn is clearly the man for next year. If Lever can get through all the games next year I'd make him co-captain in 2021.

Captain - Gawn

VC - Lever

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Max has been the de facto leader all year and it is time to admit the co-captain experiment has failed. 

Nathan I feel will step down and Jack should also do the same, announcing that he will be concentrating on developing his game. 

A million thanks to Nathan for all his hard work through dismal years but surely time to step down and be prepared to step back a bit and help develop the young brigade at Casey. 

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Yep has to be max and only max... Sorry Viney you need to focus on your game because the best use for you currently is being used as a tagger 

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