Farewell Jesse Hogan

[WAGSLEFTFOOT 40]

"We're not close to having a conversation with melbourne at the moment" - Rosich

I dont mind either way if he stays or goes, however i think he is genuinely just taking his sweet sweet sweet sweet time in making up his mind

[John Crow Batty 8,295]

2 hours ago, Graeme Yeats' Mullet said:

It's itching for a naming rights sponsor

An opportunity for hot dog manufacturers. I wonder if they cooked up a sausage sizzle for his lunch whilst there? 

Edited October 5, 2018 by america de cali

[Ted Lasso 17,084]

10 minutes ago, WAGSLEFTFOOT said:

"We're not close to having a conversation with melbourne at the moment" - Rosich

I dont mind either way if he stays or goes, however i think he is genuinely just taking his sweet sweet sweet sweet time in making up his mind

What a load of garbage. They wouldn’t bother giving Jesse a tour of Fremantle if Melbourne hadn’t given them the all clear. The reality is we can just say no deal and walk away at any stage. 

[Dockett 32 1,213]

21 minutes ago, faultydet said:

Dockers playing hard ball on Neale. Assume they play just as hard with what they give up for Hogan.

Maybe it's a sign that they know what they need to cough up for Hogan,  and are trying to ease the pain with an extra pick for Neale

Freo are ‘desperate’ for a key forward.

Posturing for a sweetener.

Our blokes won’t be waiting all day on Freo or Jesse ,as we obviously have business to attend to  as well.

No panic necessary, Freo understand how the games played. 

We wont blink first.

 

 

 

 

[McQueen 17,864]

11 minutes ago, WAGSLEFTFOOT said:

"We're not close to having a conversation with melbourne at the moment" - Rosich

I dont mind either way if he stays or goes, however i think he is genuinely just taking his sweet sweet sweet sweet time in making up his mind

 Because Melbourne thinks we’re being stupid and doesn’t want to lower themselves to our state of ineptitude. 

[DeeSpencer 23,417]

Freo's desire for Neale to go - 25%
Brisbane's desire to get Neale - 70%

Melbourne's desire for Hogan to go - 45%
Freo's desire to get Hogan - 80%

Just guessing on these figures but I think Freo would want to keep Neale so are keen to see if they can get Brisbane to over pay. Brisbane won't be as desperate as GC last year but they know Neale gives their rise up the ladder huge momentum. I can see them throwing in a little sweetner in addition to pick 4.

I also think they are very keen on Hogan whilst we are on the fence about keeping him if we get a good return. We won't hold out for the maximum because we need to get moving on May and other deals. As long as we hold a fair position it should work out.

[KysaiahMessiah 725]

Hilarious Freo won't accept pick 4 for Neale and in the same breath won't offer any more than a first rounder for Hogan ?

[Gator 16,921]

1 minute ago, DeeSpencer said:

Freo's desire for Neale to go - 25%
Brisbane's desire to get Neale - 70%

Melbourne's desire for Hogan to go - 45%
Freo's desire to get Hogan - 80%

Just guessing on these figures but I think Freo would want to keep Neale so are keen to see if they can get Brisbane to over pay. Brisbane won't be as desperate as GC last year but they know Neale gives their rise up the ladder huge momentum. I can see them throwing in a little sweetner in addition to pick 4.

I also think they are very keen on Hogan whilst we are on the fence about keeping him if we get a good return. We won't hold out for the maximum because we need to get moving on May and other deals. As long as we hold a fair position it should work out.

I disagree on Melbourne's desire.

In my view it's crystal clear that Melbourne are driving this.  They could easily quash any talk of a trade, but it feels like to me the Dees are almost encouraging Hogan to explore his options.

They've decided May is the missing piece that could secure a flag in 2019, they rate McDonald and Weideman as a forward combination, and think they can get adequate compensation from Freo.

Just my take, but I think Melbourne are more 60-70% in their desire to do a deal on Hogan.

[beelzebub 22,282]

@freobrainstrust

 

[KysaiahMessiah 725]

53 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

Wallace said something that makes sense?? What's the world coming to.....

[Stretch Johnson 2,600]

2 minutes ago, FrostyBeast said:

Hilarious Freo won't accept pick 4 for Neale and in the same breath won't offer any more than a first rounder for Hogan ?

Says who?

[Fat Tony 4,514]

I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO.

In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick.

I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years.

Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.

[sue 8,475]

1 minute ago, Fat Tony said:

I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO.

In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick.

I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years.

Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.

I'm disappointed that you have us finishing no better next year than this!

[DeeSpencer 23,417]

8 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I disagree on Melbourne's desire.

In my view it's crystal clear that Melbourne are driving this.  They could easily quash any talk of a trade, but it feels like to me the Dees are almost encouraging Hogan to explore his options.

They've decided May is the missing piece that could secure a flag in 2019, they rate McDonald and Weideman as a forward combination, and think they can get adequate compensation from Freo.

Just my take, but I think Melbourne are more 60-70% in their desire to do a deal on Hogan.

I initially had 60% written there but I decided I'd pull it back a bit, I didn't want to sound provocative. I'm also strong in believing we initiated it for him to go look at a deal. But actually doing the deal is contingent on May and on fair value, it's not a Stringer situation. We're certainly in a trickier spot with Hogan than Freo are with Neale.

Edited October 5, 2018 by DeeSpencer

[Fat Tony 4,514]

5 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I disagree on Melbourne's desire.

In my view it's crystal clear that Melbourne are driving this.  They could easily quash any talk of a trade, but it feels like to me the Dees are almost encouraging Hogan to explore his options.

They've decided May is the missing piece that could secure a flag in 2019, they rate McDonald and Weideman as a forward combination, and think they can get adequate compensation from Freo.

Just my take, but I think Melbourne are more 60-70% in their desire to do a deal on Hogan.

Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.

[Uncle Fester 2,840]

1 minute ago, DeeSpencer said:

I initially had 60% written their but I decided I'd pull it back a bit, I didn't want to sound provocative. I'm also strong in believing we initiated it for him to go look at a deal. But actually doing the deal is contingent on May and on fair value, it's not a Stringer situation. We're certainly in a trickier spot with Hogan than Freo are with Neale.

We want him to commit long term, but if he doesn't then we want full value. That's it and that is all. May can be done with or without Jesse.

[sue 8,475]

Keep Hogan, put him on the backline and then we can see if he's needed forward or if we need a May-type gorilla in the backline. I'm not sure if I am serious.

[Fat Tony 4,514]

2 minutes ago, sue said:

I'm disappointed that you have us finishing no better next year than this!

I have us winning the flag, but wanted to be conservative in the valuation.

[Gator 16,921]

5 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.

I think things have shifted.

[sue 8,475]

8 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

I have us winning the flag, but wanted to be conservative in the valuation.

you're forgiven then.

[Marty 419]

12 minutes ago, sue said:

I'm disappointed that you have us finishing no better next year than this!

Agree! 4th is par next year.

[Jaded No More 58,885]

He refuses to sign a long term deal. No point holding on to something that is never going to happen. 

The club is right to push him to leave now. Max value, injury an unknown and still contracted. We hold the cards. Time to go. 

[Dee tention 611]

23 minutes ago, FrostyBeast said:

Hilarious Freo won't accept pick 4 for Neale and in the same breath won't offer any more than a first rounder for Hogan ?

And they squeezed Pick 2 from the Gold Coast for Lachie Weller...

Freo is a joke and need to be bashed around the head! 

I hope no club deal with them...

[sue 8,475]

tea leaf readers can perhaps tell us what this means:

Although Rosich confirmed that the Dockers met with Demon Jesse Hogan, he conceded that a there was still a lot to play out before any move would be made for the Melbourne forward.

"Firstly he (Hogan) needs to make the call that he's interested in coming to Fremantle," Rosich said. 

"We're not close to having a conversation with Melbourne just yet."

[beelzebub 22,282]

Just now, sue said:

tea leaf readers can perhaps tell us what this means:

Although Rosich confirmed that the Dockers met with Demon Jesse Hogan, he conceded that a there was still a lot to play out before any move would be made for the Melbourne forward.

"Firstly he (Hogan) needs to make the call that he's interested in coming to Fremantle," Rosich said. 

"We're not close to having a conversation with Melbourne just yet."

Can you smell it Sue....that aroma ? It's called Bullshlt !!