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Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 20

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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On 8/1/2018 at 7:17 PM, Deemania since 56 said:

Long overdue - it is and should be our fortress. It once was...

hmmn, 50+ Yrs ago...

We need to find another recipe for success, because the culture we've used, has failed us for sooooo long.

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    1 hour ago, deanox said:

    Some in the football community subscribe to the goals per minute theory: as long as there are more minutes than goals you can still win (or lose). It's a reasonable assessment for the last 1-4 minutes,  but longer than that time period you need a better measure.

    That's where the Chris Sullivan Line comes in. Basically, we aren't assured the win unless we are 48+ points up at some time within the past quarter.

    http://demonwiki.org/Round+6+1992

    Chris Sullivan kicked the first goal of the last quarter to put us to 47 in the lead. No need for two guesses what happened next. 

    I'm not sure if it's the worst last quarter lead lost ever,  but pretty sure it's ours. 

     

    1 hour ago, Brownie said:

    http://demonwiki.org/Round+6+1992

    Oh god ?

    I had forgotten that game, but now you’ve reminded me I remember listening to it on the “wireless “

    We are cursed for sure! 

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    1 hour ago, deanox said:

    Some in the football community subscribe to the goals per minute theory: as long as there are more minutes than goals you can still win (or lose). It's a reasonable assessment for the last 1-4 minutes,  but longer than that time period you need a better measure.

    That's where the Chris Sullivan Line comes in. Basically, we aren't assured the win unless we are 48+ points up at some time within the past quarter.

    http://demonwiki.org/Round+6+1992

    Chris Sullivan kicked the first goal of the last quarter to put us to 47 in the lead. No need for two guesses what happened next. 

    I'm not sure if it's the worst last quarter lead lost ever,  but pretty sure it's ours. 

    I am pretty happy that there are others who think like this and that I’m not crazy. 

    Over the years I’ve sort of built up the idea that a 60 point lead is the mental breaking point for the opposition so that almost always garuantees a win (unless the wise guys out there want to cite that Bombers and Roos match in 2001).

    a 30 point lead at 3 qtr time is usually great but would want to kick that first of the last quarter or at least juice the first 5 minutes and then kick one. A 3 goal lead has basically meant nothing to me.

    Another crazy mathematician here.

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    1 hour ago, deanox said:

    http://demonwiki.org/Round+6+1992

    Chris Sullivan kicked the first goal of the last quarter to put us to 47 in the lead. No need for two guesses what happened next.

    Yeurgh. Was there sandwiched between two EFC-supporting mates who spent the first 3 quarters scoffing at the MFC "luck" ... every goal was an arse, MFC playing above themselves, so-and-so just threw it on his boot without looking and it sailed through ... they were not impressed. Delicious.

    Then of course came the deluge. They didn't even celebrate, just treated it as the expected comeback and win. Smug acceptance of their rightful due. Made it very very hard to take.

    I don't think I liked them much before that, but I have absolutely hated EFC since.

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    2 hours ago, bingers said:

    Good on avb coming back. But really ... he's not that good. I saw a lot of his matches ... he's an OK player but hardly the second coming !!! 

    ps.   ?   I have adopted brace position in anticipation of the responses to this post !! 

    Disagree.  If not for injury he would have been well and truly entrenched in the best 22 long ago.  

    Hes an absolute bull in the contest, tackles like a maniac, can kick a goal and marks well overhead.  And hes shown he can do all that at AFL level when he made an immediate impact for us in 2015.

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    The new team selection thread assessment system in honour of the Demonland centre-line bug:

    ?Bernie Vince, Sam Frost, Neville Jetta
    ?Christian Salem, Oscar McDonald, Jordan Lewis
    ? Dom Tyson, Clayton Oliver, James Harmes
    ? Aaron vandenBerg, Jesse Hogan, Bayley Fritsch
    ?Jeff Garlett, Tom McDonald,  ?Jay Kennedy Harris
    ? Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Angus Brayshaw
    ?(from): Christian Petracca, Charlie Spargo, Dean Kent, Cameron Pedersen, Jayden Hunt, Alex Neal-Bullen, Tim Smith, Joel Smith

    ? Aaron vandenBerg, Dean Kent, Cameron Pedersen, Jayden Hunt, Tim Smith
    ?Jake Melksham (hamstring)

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    • Haha 4
    11 minutes ago, Skuit said:

     

    ?The new team selection thread assessment system in honour of the Demonland centre-line bug???????

    Haha, love your work.

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    8 hours ago, MSFebey said:

     

    Oh god ?

    I had forgotten that game, but now you’ve reminded me I remember listening to it on the “wireless “

    We are cursed for sure! 

    Unfortunately I was there, dragged along a mate from NSW who had never been to the footy before, to rub salt into the wound he started to barrack for Essendon based on that 'quarter'.

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    3 hours ago, Skuit said:

     

    The new team selection thread assessment system in honour of the Demonland centre-line bug:

    ?Bernie Vince, Sam Frost, Neville Jetta
    ?Christian Salem, Oscar McDonald, Jordan Lewis
    ? Dom Tyson, Clayton Oliver, James Harmes
    ? Aaron vandenBerg, Jesse Hogan, Bayley Fritsch
    ?Jeff Garlett, Tom McDonald,  ?Jay Kennedy Harris
    ? Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Angus Brayshaw
    ?(from): Christian Petracca, Charlie Spargo, Dean Kent, Cameron Pedersen, Jayden Hunt, Alex Neal-Bullen, Tim Smith, Joel Smith

     

    ? Aaron vandenBerg, Dean Kent, Cameron Pedersen, Jayden Hunt, Tim Smith
    ?Jake Melksham (hamstring)

     

    it's a shortcut rather than a bug.   A C and a colan will give you an emoticon 

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    10 hours ago, bingers said:

    Good on avb coming back. But really ... he's not that good. I saw a lot of his matches ... he's an OK player but hardly the second coming !!! 

    ps.   ?   I have adopted brace position in anticipation of the responses to this post !! 

    AvB for some reason has always hit me as a player who will be essential to us lifting the cup. There’s no logic to it, it’s just a gut feeling. 

    On his day, he hunts and hurts the opposition and pops up for key goals in a congested forward line. Built for the intensity and agro of finals. 

    Hope he has a huge 8 weeks of footy. 

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    10 goals is the absolute minimum we need to win by this week given the opposition, and a 100 point margin is certainly achievable if we are serious for four quarters.

    Good luck to Vandenberg on his return, but I hope he has improved markedly from his last run of AFL games in 2016 - he is a decidedly average footballer at times. It concerns me that four weeks out from finals, and with a relatively small injury list, the likes of Kennedy-Harris, Kent, Vandenberg and both Smiths are still in the mix. Our depth is still almost non-existent, particularly through the midfield.

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    46 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    From memory VDB is almost impossible to tackle. I reckon that's his main asset.

    I've never tackled him, so so far your theory is holding up

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    53 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    From memory VDB is almost impossible to tackle. I reckon that's his main asset.

    Along with his tackling. 

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    Our bottom six-eight players are interchangeable depending on form.  vandenBerg is one along with Hannan, Spargo, Kent, Kennedy-Harris, etc.  Bottom tier players can hit a rich vein of form and become very important. 

    vandenBerg strikes me as a player who could make us better if he hits his straps. He had a limited preseason when he first came to us, so his only full preseason was prior to the 2016 season.  I also don't know when this most recent injury occurred.  Could it have affected his form in 2016 prior to post season surgery ?  I don't know the answer, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was a little lame. 

    At 26 his body may be in the best nick it's been in since he came to the club. 

    I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do. 

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    I like the inclusion of VDB, he was in my pre-season best 22. 

    I'm nervous with JKH, Garlett and Spargo all in the side going into finals - and they have weaker opposition this week to consolidate their positions.

    I'd like to see at least some bigger bodies - Melksham and maybe Kent to come in for one or two of them.

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    33 minutes ago, ProDee said:

    Our bottom six-eight players are interchangeable depending on form.  vandenBerg is one along with Hannan, Spargo, Kent, Kennedy-Harris, etc.  Bottom tier players can hit a rich vein of form and become very important. 

    vandenBerg strikes me as a player who could make us better if he hits his straps. He had a limited preseason when he first came to us, so his only full preseason was prior to the 2016 season.  I also don't know when this most recent injury occurred.  Could it have affected his form in 2016 prior to post season surgery ?  I don't know the answer, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was a little lame. 

    At 26 his body may be in the best nick it's been in since he came to the club. 

    I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do. 

    This is a good question Pro, thought he showed a fair bit early days, then started to struggle. Wonder if he was trying to play through the injury which then got worse.

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    While I don't think he's done enough I am wondering if Hunt could be a real selection chance for the GCS match.

    Going forward an in form Hunt probably offers much more than the other candidates over the next 3-4 weeks.

    Could it be that the coaching panel want to roll the dice on this one?

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    9 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    While I don't think he's done enough I am wondering if Hunt could be a real selection chance for the GCS match.

    Going forward an in form Hunt probably offers much more than the other candidates over the next 3-4 weeks.

    Could it be that the coaching panel want to roll the dice on this one?

    I reckon he's in serious consideration, yes his form has been poor this year but and up and firing Jayden Hunt could be the key to our road to success!

    If it's one game I think we can get away with him being underdone but also gain match fitness then this would be it.. 

    For me I'd bring in Hunt for Smith.

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    4 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

    I reckon he's in serious consideration, yes his form has been poor this year but and up and firing Jayden Hunt could be the key to our road to success!

    If it's one game I think we can get away with him being underdone but also gain match fitness then this would be it.. 

    For me I'd bring in Hunt for Smith.

    my thinking exactly DD.

    Perhaps it's time to take a risk.

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    7 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    my thinking exactly DD.

    Perhaps it's time to take a risk.

    My concern is taking in both Hunt and VDB into agame we must win. Take it lightly and we'll do "old Melbourne" and neither of these players have played much football lately.  In the case of Hunt in particular, we have struggled to get a settled back 6 this year and I'm loath to disrupt it again. 

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    23 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

    I reckon he's in serious consideration, yes his form has been poor this year but and up and firing Jayden Hunt could be the key to our road to success!

    If it's one game I think we can get away with him being underdone but also gain match fitness then this would be it.. 

    For me I'd bring in Hunt for Smith.

    I think that would be doing Hunt a great disservice. We all want him in our side, but bringing him straight back after 4 weeks off, and after average form in the 2’s is setting him up to fail. 

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    • Like 3
     

    This game should be a big test of:

    • the hunger of the playing group. easy to get up for big games but has our mentality changed over the past 12 months. Will we kill them or limp over the line?
    • The motivational power of Goody
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