The Age Writers 2018 Predictions

[Jaded No More 68,974]

We had some massive injuries last year too. Gawn and Hogan effectively missed the season, Viney and Jones were injured throughout the year, Tyson started the year injured. Then we had issues with suspensions, namely Lewis missing 3 very important games.

A bit of luck, a lot more discipline, plus Lever, plus a healthy Gawn and Hogan, certainly make us 0.5% ahead of last year, but last year is just that, it's the past. We need to look at 2018 as a fresh start, with new challenges. We will face teams who have gotten better over the summer, and some who have gotten weaker, just as we will face injuries and suspensions. As long as the sum of those parts is not greater than our overall output and effort, then we should make the 8 comfortably.

Unfortunately with Melbourne, so much of our fortunes are mental, and we can't predict whether we have gotten mentally stronger and whether we will clean up those silly losses to poor teams that ultimately cost us heavily last year. 

[Deeoldfart 8,082]

 

27 minutes ago, hemingway said:

Year after year we peak early and run out of steam in the latter part of the season. Last year, the team was physically and mentally destroyed by season end. 

No point starting the race in a sprint when we are running a marathon.

This year, we have an improved list and better depth.  Hopefully, the coaching staff and players know what is needed this season.

In particular, the importance of "peaking" at season end.

The GF is our Olympics. 

 

Totally agree Ernie..............  but last year the issue a little different imo. The 'burn-out' was exacerbated by 3 x 6 day breaks (with travel) and significant injuries to key players.  Without the impact of these issues, I don't think "the team would have been physically and mentally destroyed".  We may not have played deep into September, but I'm convinced we would have tasted footy in the Spring. C'est la vie.

[Its Time for Another 4,293]

15 minutes ago, Jaded said:

We had some massive injuries last year too. Gawn and Hogan effectively missed the season, Viney and Jones were injured throughout the year, Tyson started the year injured. Then we had issues with suspensions, namely Lewis missing 3 very important games.

A bit of luck, a lot more discipline, plus Lever, plus a healthy Gawn and Hogan, certainly make us 0.5% ahead of last year, but last year is just that, it's the past. We need to look at 2018 as a fresh start, with new challenges. We will face teams who have gotten better over the summer, and some who have gotten weaker, just as we will face injuries and suspensions. As long as the sum of those parts is not greater than our overall output and effort, then we should make the 8 comfortably.

Unfortunately with Melbourne, so much of our fortunes are mental, and we can't predict whether we have gotten mentally stronger and whether we will clean up those silly losses to poor teams that ultimately cost us heavily last year. 

Love your work Jaded. That pretty much covers every comment I was going to make.

Will just say when you look at the Ins and Outs it is nice to see the ongoing weeding out of weak players, no losses of good players and the progressive filling in of specific holes. Bit by bit the lists being filled in very nicely. 

Agree with most who say outside run is our missing factor now. To me we have it but he's sitting on the HBF. Hunt has the speed to break lines and is unstoppable on the run. By all accounts he's worked on his final kick into the forward 50. Having said that I'm very surprised to see him still being played off HBF. Thought it was a no brainer to move him onto the wing especially with Bernie and Lewis playing HBF. Will be interesting to see if they try him out on a wing tonight.

[praha 11,240]

53 minutes ago, hemingway said:

Year after year we peak early and run out of steam in the latter part of the season. Last year, the team was physically and mentally destroyed by season end. 

No point starting the race in a sprint when we are running a marathon.

This year, we have an improved list and better depth.  Hopefully, the coaching staff and players know what is needed this season.

In particular, the importance of "peaking" at season end.

The GF is our Olympics. 

 

Disagree. Some of the games we lost late were no different than some of the games we lost early (Freo, Hawks, North). And we played good footy right up until round 23, and even then it was bad shocking quarter that killed us and ended our season. We kick 2 more goals in that quarter and we're playing finals. What caused that first quarter was not being us being destroyed after a long season. 

We were killed by injuries. I have a far greater concern of the demons (pardon the pun) that cause lapses like we saw in 3-4 games last season. They always came at the worst time. If we can get rid of them, even with a few injuries, i think we have the depth to compete.

That said as I've mentioned in another thread, I'm not excited yet because there's been no opportunity for them to break that.

[The Chazz 4,077]

5 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Oh what difference a strong pre-season doth make...

Sorry if I've heard that before

Most of the players in Round 23 had been back for 4-6 weeks ... about the same as a pre-season

Just saying the jury is quite rightly out on this team and its coach.

Had we made finals last year we would probably have another 5,000 members at this time... we would probably have had a better draw from a FTA exposure viewpoint.

By the way for a club struggling like we are, merely making the 8 is not a great thing in an 18 team competition. Time says we have to hit it lucky some time. Success is needed at a high level over a sustained period.

PS... and of course we had a great game against Carlton in 2016 when the future was on the line.

 

5 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Careful DJ you can’t be too negative around here, even though your just quoting facts

Wiseblood will be upset now....

SWYL, there is some truth in what Diamond Jim wrote, but not everything there is fact.

How can it be fact that we'd "probably" have an extra 5k members if we made finals last year?

How can it be fact that we would "probably" have a better draw?

How can it be fact that merely making the top 8 isn't a great thing?

[Demon trucker 1,800]

Our average losing margin last year was about 23 points, even the games we lost we should not have lost were within 12 points, the game that hurt as the most was the Darwin game where we had our weakest side for the year, our best side would have not lost by more then 25 points or even won.

This is how the world works, you can do 9 things correct and make 1 really bad mistake and everyone points to the mistake and criticise it, but very few will say well done for getting 9 correct, almost everyone looks at the losses to  the bottom side as mental weakness  no one ever points to the wins against the good sides,  and the wins interstate, and say that's a sign of mental strength.

[beelzebub 23,384]

Stop reading the papers

[Sir Why You Little 37,220]

2 hours ago, The Chazz said:

 

SWYL, there is some truth in what Diamond Jim wrote, but not everything there is fact.

How can it be fact that we'd "probably" have an extra 5k members if we made finals last year?

How can it be fact that we would "probably" have a better draw?

How can it be fact that merely making the top 8 isn't a great thing?

Of course you are right Chazz

But if we had made it into September and had a crack, we would have more members signed up, you and i both know momentum would have made that real...

It didn’t happen sadly, so as usual we get fixtured a B grade season. 

We have the talent, attitude is the gamble

[nosoupforme 3,085]

One year wiser, stronger and better prepared. and the first proper against Geelong  we need to win. If that can be achieved most sceptics will believe . WE ARE BETTER PREPARED and ready to go!

[Cassiew 1,903]

I’d say what they can do, but I guess you all know by now

[D4Life 2,571]

I reflect on going into last season and hoped with everything going right we would make the eight, meaning:

- not too many injuries, instead we lost our key forward Hogan, #1 Ruck Gawn, #1 midfielder Viney, then Jones, Hibberd missed about 5 each, some poorly timed suspensions of Lewis, Vince & Hogan

- beat most of the weaker teams, as has been mentioned often, we coughed up 5 bad losses North*2, Hawks, Freo & Pies

- rack up wins very early because younger teams statistically fall away as the season continues, then we fell of a cliff from round 15 v Swans and the 3 * 6 day break games

Going into this year:

- fair drawer

- positive pre season, most key players in good shape, hopefully Viney comes good, last season he didn’t have a great season either

- You can see a lot of the young guys have improved like ANB, Harmes, OMac, Salem etc and have another pre season behind them

- Max, Hibberd, Hogan, Petracca all strong pre seasons

- Depth looks better, try pick your best 22, it’s much harder

Going into the season we have no excuses and should do very well, and win at least one final!

[Demon17 5,208]

14 hours ago, Is Dom Is Good said:

Jake Niall is petty spot on with his assessment. Hibberd & Hunt give us elite half backs. Lever is an elite intercept mark. Oliver, Tyson, Viney & Jones are all fantastic inside mids. Petracca gives us forward X factor. Hogan & Mcdonald are solid key talls. 

I think the missing piece is really that outside runner, which is why I think we should be going after Gaff at the end of this year.

The missing piece is between the ears and killer instinct

[daisycutter 29,784]

20 hours ago, beelzebub said:

Stop reading the papers

esp the age for sports - they can't even hold the presses to get the evening sports results in

what will they do when we get a night grand final