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Demons rise up in the betting odds

The Third Eye
in Melbourne Demons

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Posted

Now 6th in line for the premiership -

Sportsbet Premiership Odds

$3.75 Adelaide 
$4.00 GWS Giants 
$7.50 Geelong 
$9.00 Port Adelaide 
$12.00 West Coast
$16.00  Western Bulldogs Melbourne
 
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    I think the power are a MUCH better chance than the cats. 

    You don't win big finals when you're so reliant on a couple of stars 

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    Betting more reflects the willingness of others as opposed the chances of some.

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    45 minutes ago, Abe said:

    I think the power are a MUCH better chance than the cats. 

    You don't win big finals when you're so reliant on a couple of stars 

    Power hasn't beaten anyone above 10th and are 0-5 against top 8.

    Edited by praha

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    As a non punter are the odds just reflective of the money actually placed or do they weight it at this stage for things like the ladder and an assessment of the draw?

     

     

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    10 minutes ago, Robbie57 said:

    As a non punter are the odds just reflective of the money actually placed or do they weight it at this stage for things like the ladder and an assessment of the draw?

     

     

    A bit of both - bookmakers will shorten odds in anticipation of $$$$ being bet on teams like us. It's why Collingwood are usually shorter than they should be before the start of each season as their supporters tend to back them, more than supporters of most other teams.

    Edited by Clintosaurus

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    16 hours ago, The Third Eye said:

    Now 6th in line for the premiership -

    Sportsbet Premiership Odds

    $3.75 Adelaide 
    $4.00 GWS Giants 
    $7.50 Geelong 
    $9.00 Port Adelaide 
    $12.00 West Coast
    $16.00  Western Bulldogs Melbourne
     

    And Richmond are nowhere to be seen!

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    17 hours ago, The Third Eye said:

    Now 6th in line for the premiership -

    Sportsbet Premiership Odds

    $3.75 Adelaide 
    $4.00 GWS Giants 
    $7.50 Geelong 
    $9.00 Port Adelaide 
    $12.00 West Coast
    $16.00  Western Bulldogs Melbourne
     

    Beat MethCoke over there and those odds will plummet...

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    47 minutes ago, Robbie57 said:

    As a non punter are the odds just reflective of the money actually placed or do they weight it at this stage for things like the ladder and an assessment of the draw?

    In no way are the odds representative of percentage liikelihood.

    Much more to do with money actually bet. (Specifically, hedging to reduce payouts.)

    But even then ... the bookies have their own assessments (based on computer projections using a range of models) of what's likely and they will shorten the odds on anyone who is actually likely to win it, and lengthen them for those who they think isn't ... to lure in the mugs.

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    1 minute ago, Ted Fidge said:

    t ... to lure in the mugs.

    like me....Thanks.

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    17 hours ago, Wrecker45 said:

    I don't mind the $16. Don't fear any of those teams around us.

    Yet we share those odds with a team that we absolutely mauled on the weekend, on their home turf, whilst resting two key players for the final quarter, and also having key players out who will return for the run home and finals (i.e. Gawn, Hogan).

    They did win the flag last year though ...

     

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    it really is a year where a team could nick a flag.  no-one is dominant or even consistent.  GWS having so many injuries opens it up

    why not Dees!  just have to make finals first though!

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    1 minute ago, DubDee said:

    it really is a year where a team could nick a flag.  no-one is dominant or even consistent.  GWS having so many injuries opens it up

    why not Dees!  just have to make finals first though!

    We're playing great football...and the club has set itself for these 3 weeks. But the team that wins the flag this year will be the team peaking in September. So so even....form and injuries will be everything come that time of year. Heres hoping we're there and come in injury free and pumping. dreaming of 87 all over again ( could do without losing the equivilent of gary lyon in the last game though) 

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    Have noticed sometimes that the odds which show up on AFL website during a game can fluctuate wildly especially after a few goal run on.

    I find it difficult to accept that these moving odds reflect wagers actually placed so there is obviously a lot of algorithms at play as to likelihoods of say a team coming from 40 pints down etc. (Given the algorithms that are written for the derivative trading world I suspect they have some complicated ones as well.)

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    2 hours ago, Ted Fidge said:

    In no way are the odds representative of percentage liikelihood.

    Much more to do with money actually bet. (Specifically, hedging to reduce payouts.)

     

    Not true at all. 

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    3 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    Have noticed sometimes that the odds which show up on AFL website during a game can fluctuate wildly especially after a few goal run on.

    I find it difficult to accept that these moving odds reflect wagers actually placed so there is obviously a lot of algorithms at play as to likelihoods of say a team coming from 40 pints down etc. (Given the algorithms that are written for the derivative trading world I suspect they have some complicated ones as well.)

    They are the same algorithms usually weighting about 150 data points. 

    I have friends who run against the bookies with algorithms weighting about 800 data points (and moving towards 5000). 

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    1 hour ago, Wolfmother said:

    They are the same algorithms usually weighting about 150 data points. 

    I have friends who run against the bookies with algorithms weighting about 800 data points (and moving towards 5000). 

    5000 built in factors .... wow that is some list of variables with differing weighting on each data point

    Are there places that sell the various data points as I assume they vary weekly not to mention with each team.

    The combinations make the mind boggle but I suppose that is what a good quant is all about

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    Agreed it confused the sh^t out of me. I just looked at the end result.  They are bringing the work from American sports which have been analysis to death. 

     

    I believe getting the data is the hardest part. They have their own database but it is from mainly public data that is scrapped. They would love access to the champion data feeds but their is issues due to gambling uses (they were working with the storm for a while)

     

    i believe the data points do not change per team but the data is store per ground(and weather) and this plays the biggest difference in odds, more than most people realise. 

    Edited by Wolfmother

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