My calculations have the Dees needing to win 7 from the last 12 games and a similar % to clinch a spot in the finals.

We were in the same situation last year but could only manage 5 wins. 

Our second half this season should be better assuming we front up with a ruckman.

im penciling in:

Pies, sydney (h), Carlton, north (tas), saints, lions, pies. 

Eagles also looking shaky without Kennedy.

I'll be counting down game by game for our first appearance in a decade. 

Yeah, I agree with the 'coot. My AFL ladder predictor has us on 12 wins also, ahead of the Saints either by 4 points or percentage.

Tassie may be a struggle. The coin toss, given the inevitable howling wind down the ground, could well be a factor.

BTW the Crows won the last three quarters of their game at BA, but the 10 goal start was too much to claw back. Of course we nearly did it last year.

I like your optimism gents. It seems doable. 

I also like the optimism. Its seems this year is still the best chance in the last 10. We should have at least 1 ruckman pretty soon. At some stage we will get on a roll, that will lift the boys enormously and if that happens....who knows.

I can't wait for the bulldogs game when we have both gawn and hoges back and hopefully our full best 22 side in... if we win that game, i'll be confident of finals. 

7 hours ago, bandicoot said:

My calculations have the Dees needing to win 7 from the last 12 games and a similar % to clinch a spot in the finals.

My calculations indicate that to achieve this we will have to win 2 in a row  at least once!!

 

I think that even though we're similarly placed at this point as we were at the same point last year, those above and around us aren't as good. Freo's percentage is shocking and they will drop down, even if they win today and go 2 games ahead. Eagles are incredibly shaky and imo we need to beat them in Perth. They're average imo. Richmond appears set for finals but they can go on long binges of average football. St Kilda still gets belted when they lose, which hurts their percentage. Essendon Collingwood and North aren't playing finals, although Bombers could push. Sydney still worries me but I think them along with the Hawks are shot.

We are in the box seat and it would be so disappointing if we missed. We could certainly push and finish top 4. Maybe I have the red and blue tinged glasses on but I can see us finishing ahead of every team in the 8 bar the top 3. How good would it be to go up against GWS first up and beat them in Sydney?

How odd.. I just did a predictor.. I wasn't that kind to us...I'm a realist and we've struggled at certain venues, certain teams and stringing wins.

Did it twice.. came in 7th and 8th.

As much as you want it to be about what WE do..I can't help but sense in this very strangely 'even' year it's more about what others do.

we've a 50/50 return currently...11 wins will get someone just falling into the 8...depending on outcomes.

Personally if you've just fallen into finals thats not a great preparation and you WILL get monstered.

As ever it will revolve around one game.....the one coming up...lose that...dont bother ( personally )

end of round 15 and we will have a good idea. Win two or dare I say three of the next three games and we are solidly on our way. Win one or none and life becomes about the draft period.

13 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Personally if you've just fallen into finals thats not a great preparation and you WILL get monstered.

Bub, we just fell into the finals in '87 and it was us doing the monstering. It is a highly even year, and with a week off before the finals anyone in it can win it, I reckon.

I did the ladder predictor 'on gut feeling' game by game and end up with us finishing in 5th, playing St Kilda (8th) in an elimination final. Which we will win after Fraser Gehrig gets crunched trying to run around Nathan Carrol.

My result is clearly accurate because I've also got Richmond having a late season fade-out to finish 9th, on percentage.

15 minutes ago, small but forward said:

Bub, we just fell into the finals in '87 and it was us doing the monstering. It is a highly even year, and with a week off before the finals anyone in it can win it, I reckon.

Was there...we got to finals with a series of really good wins ..5 on trot no less. That's serious momentum, a great head of steam.

You're a lot closer to the sharp end at 5th.

We were scarey good that year and SHOULD have a flag ( we know why we don't )

We put games together... we're a serious chance.

Thing is....we can't even put 4 qtrs together 

In -  Melbourne, St Kilda

Out - West Coast, Freo

No way I'm ruling it out when Richmond are a top 4 side.

Richmond ffs.

One thing is for sure we will knock off either bulldogs, Adelaide, west coast and lose to Brisbane at the G 

Freo is the danger. They can win 12 or 13 games. Derby v eagles will be huge.

My old man keeps banging on about the Hawks and Freo games and how they will probably cost us finals. 

I still think we'll get there, because I can't see any teams really finding any sort of consistency that puts them ahead of the rest. 

With Gawn and Hogan back, if we can maintain our best 22 from Round 13 onwards, we'll win 7-8 remaining games.

I'm far from convinced.

Our best footy is bloody good but we just don't produce it consistently.

Still .... I live in hope. A finals appearance (even it is only one ) would be a terrific boost for the club, supporters and players on so many levels.

 

hmm just fiddled with another predictor...we could lob as low as 11th.  I didnt change much from before...many a teams fortunes are built on a house of cards

This thread is seriously delusional. I do however hope most of you are right about us making the finals but I don't believe we will. It is a pity coz when we play decent footy we are a top 4 side.

There are serious mental problems at Melbourne and until we can start shutting the door on them we will never be consistent.

as Oscar once said to Miss Steenkampf- "never jump the gun or dearly will thou pay."

 

Edited June 4, 20178 yr by Biffen

18 hours ago, bandicoot said:

My calculations have the Dees needing to win 7 from the last 12 games and a similar % to clinch a spot in the finals.

We were in the same situation last year but could only manage 5 wins. 

Our second half this season should be better assuming we front up with a ruckman.

im penciling in:

Pies, sydney (h), Carlton, north (tas), saints, lions, pies. 

Eagles also looking shaky without Kennedy.

I'll be counting down game by game for our first appearance in a decade. 

"Pencil in"? I dont pencil in any game with the Dees

4 hours ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

I'm far from convinced.

Our best footy is bloody good but we just don't produce it consistently.

Still .... I live in hope. A finals appearance (even it is only one ) would be a terrific boost for the club, supporters and players on so many levels.

 

We've won one more quarter than Richmond having played one less game.

How many teams would be fourth on the quarters won ladder without their two most important players ?  To check the significance of this stat go back through previous years of the QW ladder and you'll know what I mean.

I really don't think we're getting enough credit for our year to date given we've been playing with no ruckman or key forward.

You can't tell me we wouldn't at least 7 wins (and top 4) if we hadn't been cruelled by injuries to our two most important players.

QB is vital for our finals chances.

3 hours ago, dl4e said:

This thread is seriously delusional. I do however hope most of you are right about us making the finals but I don't believe we will. It is a pity coz when we play decent footy we are a top 4 side.

There are serious mental problems at Melbourne and until we can start shutting the door on them we will never be consistent.

I think the mental problems are more prevalent on DL than they are in the team.

the team remind me of my year 9 school report - easily distracted and distracts others. When they're  not distracted, they are the best team in the league. Need to either improve their focus skills pre quarter starting, or get hit with a cattle prod (or maybe both).

We were still in the chase for the finals up until the last 2 rounds of the season last year.

I think we are a much better side this year, apart from the Geelong lose when we lost Gawn in the second quarter and kicked 19 points the most we have lost by is 2 Goals. 

We have lost two of our best key position players and we're still finding a way to win games.

Considering we are only one game out of the top 8 with out Gawn and Hogan, I think we deffenitly have chance to make the finals.