MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 20

[Undeeterred 3,101]

9 hours ago, AdamFphlebeb said:

It might be down to the backs gelling more, but I'd argue it's the pace of Sam Frost and Jayden Hunt. We close down space quicker with these guys in the team. 

Definitely this is helping too. I think there's been a slight structural shift too, though, because earlier in the year we were pushing up much higher, with much less protection, and getting completely smoked on the rebound.

Tom McDonald is the perfect player to play the sweeper role and the fact he has a couple of very quick players to get to the contests up the ground can only help.

I actually really like the way the backline is coming together and the injection of one or two older heads next year (be that Melksham, Hibberd, Vince going down there full time etc) will only help.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

15 minutes ago, old dee said:

Injuries will fix your problem AW.

We have actually had a good run this year.

Yeah very true but to a point we still need a best 22 or even 25 that swap and change based on form and rests hoping mass injuries dont come. Either way it's nice to struggle to fit people in rather than struggle to find people to play.

[Akum 2,660]

It's interesting that in the game against the three-peat premiers we're "protecting" Dawes and "exposing" Weideman. If this doesn't send out a message - that we're relying on the young players, not our old players, to take us forwards - I don't know what does. The polar opposite of Richmond & Norf.

And ... this game could be interesting. Half expecting us to get smashed, but if we start in the right frame of mind and take the game on from the start, we could give it a shake. We've struggled against teams who are hell-bent on nullifying our game - by negating Gawn and Viney/Chunk and crowding the corridor. Hawks don't nullify, they just take teams on, so they won't be trying to "stop" us.

It probably all boils down to how well we execute skills under pressure. There are games this year when we've done this much better than expected (Norf, WCE) and other games when we've been terrible (Ess, Saints, last week). Perhaps the weeks we've been bad are when we've not expected to be put under pressure, and the weeks we've done well, we've been expecting it. We'll definitely be expecting it tomorrow.

[Chris 2,892]

A few stats on the game. 

	MFC	HFC		Diff
Average Age	22.6	26.5		-3.8
Average Games	56.6	137.0		-80.4
Back Line
Ave Age	21.8	28.7		-6.8
Ave Games	46.2	190.5		-144.3
Fol (includes wing)
Ave Age	24.5	28.3		-3.8
Ave Games	101.8	184.0		-82.2
Fwd
Ave Age	22.2	24.8		-2.7
Ave Games	62.2	104.8		-42.7
Int
Ave Age	21.8	22.8		-1.0
Ave Games	38.5	34.3		4.3
Melbourne
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	4	1	4	3	12
51-100	2	3	0	1	6
101-150	0	0	2	0	2
151-200	0	1	0	0	1
200+	0	1	0	0	1
					22
HFC
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	0	1	2	3	6
51-100	1	1	0	1	3
101-150	1	1	3	0	5
151-200	1	0	1	0	2
200+	3	3	0	0	6
					22
	MFC Back	HFC Fwd		Diff
Age	21.8	24.8		-3.0
Games	46.2	104.8		-58.7
	MFC Fwd	HFC Back
Age	22.2	28.7		-6.5
Games	62.2	190.5		-128.3

 

This has to be the youngest side we have put on the field in a long time and the comparison with the Hawks doesn't make pretty reading.

I have a gut feeling something special is on the cards but wont be at all surprised if we lose this by our biggest margin of the year. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

5 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I don't like Harmes so much in the back half though, he looks a little like a fish out of water there and I think I've seen him cough it up way too many times (not that that would make him different from a few others down there though).  Perhaps it's a development thing, where the coaches are prepared to cop some of the turn overs in the interim in order to add versatility to his and the teams game for the future?

Probably Balls. They seem to push the versatility thing alot nowdays. I agree he looks better forward of centre. As you said we already have too many turnover kings in our back half atm.

Nev's about the only reliable one although there has been some  Marginal improvement in last few weeks from the likes of Frost, Omac & Hunt on their earlier stats. Coming off a pretty low base though.

Our general short/medium kicking skills need a massive improvement amongst many players on this list if we Are  to start winning against the top 8 clubs

[PaulRB 6,312]

11 hours ago, AdamFphlebeb said:

Add Salem and that's truly exciting. Only three fringers in that lot and three of them are on the bench and I don't mean Gus.

Vandenberg a "fringer"!!!

I thought you'd have leant that lesson last week...?! 

[Adam The God 29,717]

8 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

Vandenberg a "fringer"!!!

I thought you'd have leant that lesson last week...?! 

He was very effective last week, but he just doesn't have the tools to be a consistently good AFL player for mine.

Edited August 5, 2016 by AdamFphlebeb

[DubDee 24,908]

37 minutes ago, Chris said:

A few stats on the game. 

	MFC	HFC		Diff
Average Age	22.6	26.5		-3.8
Average Games	56.6	137.0		-80.4
Back Line
Ave Age	21.8	28.7		-6.8
Ave Games	46.2	190.5		-144.3

good god. 7 years and 150 games!! 

will be so hard for us to even compete when you look at that.  you can get away with some inexperience in the fwd half or even in the middle but not at the back.  The hawks will smash us once it gets inside 50

it takes years to learn positional play, using your body, when to leave your man etc as a backman

[Cards13 9,117]

50 minutes ago, Akum said:

It's interesting that in the game against the three-peat premiers we're "protecting" Dawes and "exposing" Weideman. If this doesn't send out a message - that we're relying on the young players, not our old players, to take us forwards - I don't know what does. The polar opposite of Richmond & Norf.

And ... this game could be interesting. Half expecting us to get smashed, but if we start in the right frame of mind and take the game on from the start, we could give it a shake. We've struggled against teams who are hell-bent on nullifying our game - by negating Gawn and Viney/Chunk and crowding the corridor. Hawks don't nullify, they just take teams on, so they won't be trying to "stop" us.

It probably all boils down to how well we execute skills under pressure. There are games this year when we've done this much better than expected (Norf, WCE) and other games when we've been terrible (Ess, Saints, last week). Perhaps the weeks we've been bad are when we've not expected to be put under pressure, and the weeks we've done well, we've been expecting it. We'll definitely be expecting it tomorrow.

Hawks will just sweat on our mistakes and kill us in the turnover with their pin point skills. 

Looking forward to seeing how we go but we still someone off.

[Chris 2,892]

7 minutes ago, DubDee said:

good god. 7 years and 150 games!! 

will be so hard for us to even compete when you look at that.  you can get away with some inexperience in the fwd half or even in the middle but not at the back.  The hawks will smash us once it gets inside 50

it takes years to learn positional play, using your body, when to leave your man etc as a backman

This is the comparison of our backs to their forwards:

MFC Back	HFC Fwd		Diff
Age	21.8	24.8		-3.0
Games	46.2	104.8		-58.7

 

Not quite as big a gap but still sizable. Their backs have 6.5 years and 128 games on our forwards. The difference is stark!

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, Akum said:

It's interesting that in the game against the three-peat premiers we're "protecting" Dawes and "exposing" Weideman. If this doesn't send out a message - that we're relying on the young players, not our old players, to take us forwards - I don't know what does. The polar opposite of Richmond & Norf.

And ... this game could be interesting. Half expecting us to get smashed, but if we start in the right frame of mind and take the game on from the start, we could give it a shake. We've struggled against teams who are hell-bent on nullifying our game - by negating Gawn and Viney/Chunk and crowding the corridor. Hawks don't nullify, they just take teams on, so they won't be trying to "stop" us.

It probably all boils down to how well we execute skills under pressure. There are games this year when we've done this much better than expected (Norf, WCE) and other games when we've been terrible (Ess, Saints, last week). Perhaps the weeks we've been bad are when we've not expected to be put under pressure, and the weeks we've done well, we've been expecting it. We'll definitely be expecting it tomorrow.

Very inexperienced so always going to be ups downs and inbetweens.

Roos has brought in solid culture in training, processes and also surrounded the boys with great support/assistants.

Thank goodness we have moved on from the ugly Neeld era.

Just need a few extra senior bods with skills to bolster decision making, execution and on field leadership

[old55 23,120]

We've got an incredibly young line-up and it will be very difficult to win.

I know they keep winning but that is a patchy Hawthorn side IMO.  

HAWTHORN
B Taylor Duryea, James Frawley, Ben Stratton
HB Shaun Burgoyne, Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall
C Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Bradley Hill
HF Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Will Langford
F Tim O'Brien, Ben McEvoy, Cyril Rioli
FOLL Jonathon Ceglar, Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge
I/C Kaiden Brand, Brendan Whitecross, Jonathan O'Rourke, James Sicily
EMG Blake Hardwick, Kurt Heatherley, Dallas Willsmore

Take out Burgoyne, Gibson, Mitchell and Hodge who are very near retirement and Lewis is 31 at the start of next year (only 6 months younger that Bernie)

Add a couple of injuries to remaining key players and that's a pretty ordinary line-up.

 HAWTHORN

Player	Injury	Estimated Return
Paul Puopolo	Hip	Test
Jarryd Roughead*	Illness	Season
Ryan Schoenmakers	Groin	1 week
Liam Shiels	Hamstring	Test
Matt Spangher	Hamstring	1 week

There's a couple of handy players currently injured but it will be interesting when they have to be the front liners.  It seems a long-shot for Roughy to get back, he's 30 next year.

[poita 3,888]

Dawes and Wagner rested? Give me a break. Both have played 3 games in the past 6 weeks. Both need to go back to Casey and work on their shortcomings, in Dawes' case permanently. I'll be ropeable if that bludger plays against Port given his lack of form and fitness.

Our forward structure has not been working with Dawes, so glad to see a change. Would have preferred Pedersen to Weideman for this game, but hopefully Sam can get a few touches.

Not sure why Bugg is back if he didn't play at Casey last week. Why do we no longer reward guys who play well at Casey? I've seen nothing to suggest that Bugg's kicking has improved since he was dropped. Good to see Oliver back - hopefully he can play at least 70% game time this week.

I'm not a Matt Jones fan, but I would have dropped others before him. Harmes and Garlett both lucky. Garlett owes us a big time - he has had less than 10 possessions in six of his seven games since signing his contract.

[Yossarian 1,820]

1 hour ago, poita said:

Dawes and Wagner rested? Give me a break. Both have played 3 games in the past 6 weeks. Both need to go back to Casey and work on their shortcomings, in Dawes' case permanently. I'll be ropeable if that bludger plays against Port given his lack of form and fitness.

Our forward structure has not been working with Dawes, so glad to see a change. Would have preferred Pedersen to Weideman for this game, but hopefully Sam can get a few touches.

Not sure why Bugg is back if he didn't play at Casey last week. Why do we no longer reward guys who play well at Casey? I've seen nothing to suggest that Bugg's kicking has improved since he was dropped. Good to see Oliver back - hopefully he can play at least 70% game time this week.

I'm not a Matt Jones fan, but I would have dropped others before him. Harmes and Garlett both lucky. Garlett owes us a big time - he has had less than 10 possessions in six of his seven games since signing his contract.

Your points are pretty sound, but why so aggressive? Dawes isn't a bludger and Garlett doesn't owe us anything. Drop them if they're playing poorly, but no need to be angry at them personally.

[stuie 7,374]

1 hour ago, poita said:

Dawes and Wagner rested? Give me a break. Both have played 3 games in the past 6 weeks. Both need to go back to Casey and work on their shortcomings, in Dawes' case permanently. I'll be ropeable if that bludger plays against Port given his lack of form and fitness.

Our forward structure has not been working with Dawes, so glad to see a change. Would have preferred Pedersen to Weideman for this game, but hopefully Sam can get a few touches.

Not sure why Bugg is back if he didn't play at Casey last week. Why do we no longer reward guys who play well at Casey? I've seen nothing to suggest that Bugg's kicking has improved since he was dropped. Good to see Oliver back - hopefully he can play at least 70% game time this week.

I'm not a Matt Jones fan, but I would have dropped others before him. Harmes and Garlett both lucky. Garlett owes us a big time - he has had less than 10 possessions in six of his seven games since signing his contract.

- Dawes isn't a "bludger". Runs hard, has a decent tank. If by "fitness" you mean the calf injuries that he's been still playing in spite of, then that goes against your "bludger" tag anyway. Also, his form is better than that of Hogan over the last 2 weeks, no mention of him?

- You talk about lack of form and fitness yet you want Pedersen who's only just back from a fair while out with illness and has had 1 decent game coming in?

- Bugg was rested last week specifically with the intention of him coming in for this game. Roos has spoken about that already, managing players to get the best out of the rest of the season, it's the reason he gave for Dawes being rested this week.

- You talk so much about fitness, but then you hope Oliver can play 70% game time. That's just hypocritical.

- Garlett isn't a high possession player given he's a crumbing forward, and that would suffer even more given he hasn't been having runs in the midfield like previously. He also kicked 3 against WC and 2 against St Kilda. Goals are his job, not possessions.

 

Edited August 5, 2016 by stuie

[M_9 2,041]

I apologise for not reading all of the preceding pages. If Hogan doesn't come up, who comes in - Col to be played as a forward, Pedo the logical choice, and if it's Dawes why wasn't he named as emerg?

[stuie 7,374]

1 minute ago, M_9 said:

I apologise for not reading all of the preceding pages. If Hogan doesn't come up, who comes in - Col to be played as a forward, Pedo the logical choice, and if it's Dawes why wasn't he named as emerg?

Pedo is an emergency, Roos stated Dawes is being rested this week, likely to manage his heavily bandaged calf.

 

[M_9 2,041]

1 minute ago, stuie said:

Pedo is an emergency, Roos stated Dawes is being rested this week, likely to manage his heavily bandaged calf.

 

I assume if Pedo comes in he plays CHF and JW at FF. Pedo back-up ruckman and ??? to CHF.

[stuie 7,374]

11 minutes ago, M_9 said:

I assume if Pedo comes in he plays CHF and JW at FF. Pedo back-up ruckman and ??? to CHF.

Maybe, although the plan this year seems to be everyone plays everywhere...

 

[Je Roos Salem 661]

2 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

We've got an incredibly young line-up and it will be very difficult to win.

I know they keep winning but that is a patchy Hawthorn side IMO.  

HAWTHORN
B Taylor Duryea, James Frawley, Ben Stratton
HB Shaun Burgoyne, Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall
C Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Bradley Hill
HF Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Will Langford
F Tim O'Brien, Ben McEvoy, Cyril Rioli
FOLL Jonathon Ceglar, Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge
I/C Kaiden Brand, Brendan Whitecross, Jonathan O'Rourke, James Sicily
EMG Blake Hardwick, Kurt Heatherley, Dallas Willsmore

Take out Burgoyne, Gibson, Mitchell and Hodge who are very near retirement and Lewis is 31 at the start of next year (only 6 months younger that Bernie)

Add a couple of injuries to remaining key players and that's a pretty ordinary line-up.

 HAWTHORN

Player	Injury	Estimated Return
Paul Puopolo	Hip	Test
Jarryd Roughead*	Illness	Season
Ryan Schoenmakers	Groin	1 week
Liam Shiels	Hamstring	Test
Matt Spangher	Hamstring	1 week

There's a couple of handy players currently injured but it will be interesting when they have to be the front liners.  It seems a long-shot for Roughy to get back, he's 30 next year.

Hawthorn really don't have a ton of depth and not much young talent coming through. They're held together by those five 30+ guys. Probably won't bottom out though since everyone will want to play for them

[P-man 13,366]

They have got a winner in Sicily. He's going to be an exceptionally good player.

Amazing to think that Fantasia, Sicily and Hunt were picks 55, 56 & 57 in the 2013 draft. You'd be forgiven for thinking they were picks 15,16 & 17.

[samcantstandya 1,035]

19 hours ago, bing181 said:

Rested. Regardless of how he plays, it seems pretty clear that his body is fairly shot, and just getting up each week is touch and go.

"Dawesy definitely [needs a rest] with a six-day break, with his body the way it is at the moment,” 

“He came in, after having a weekend off and played really well the first game, but we’ve got to be mindful of that. There are some tough games coming up and we’re going to need all of our players playing well."

Retirement beckons

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

18 minutes ago, P-man said:

They have got a winner in Sicily. He's going to be an exceptionally good player.

It's a shame he's a ducker.

[SPC 3,507]

Did Jesse have another fitness test today? Wondering how he went... Anyone know?

[McQueen 17,864]

Well I've just tipped us to win.