Have we had the easiest draw? (Rds 1 - 7)

[Demonland 65,478]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-05-11/draw-holds-no-favours-for-struggling-magpies

Have we had the easiest draw from Rounds 1 to 7 and if so are you happy with 4 - 3?

	ROUND 1-7		ROUND 8-23
Rank	Club	Difficulty	Club	Difficulty
1	Brisbane Lions	+137.6	North Melbourne	+43.1
2	Hawthorn	+95.0	Collingwood	+30.9
3	Fremantle	+77.0	Western Bulldogs	+18.5
4	St Kilda	+72.1	Fremantle	+12.9
5	GWS	+59.0	Sydney Swans	+12.3
6	Essendon	+46.7	Port Adelaide	+8.5
7	Adelaide	+30.9	Melbourne	+5.7
8	Richmond	+3.9	Carlton	+5.0
9	Port Adelaide	-33.0	Adelaide	+3.1
10	Collingwood	-36.6	Richmond	+1.1
11	West Coast	-36.6	Geelong	-1.1
12	North Melbourne	-39.6	Gold Coast	-1.9
13	Gold Coast	-53.0	Essendon	-14.1
14	Geelong	-53.4	Hawthorn	-17.9
15	Sydney Swans	-64.0	GWS	-21.2
16	Western Bulldogs	-65.0	West Coast	-25.7
17	Carlton	-70.4	St Kilda	-28.1
18	Melbourne	-70.6	Brisbane Lions	-30.9

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

Obv.

 

[Pates 9,537]

I was thinking about this going into the game this weekend. GWS is the only team of note we've beaten and we lost to the Bombers who we should've destroyed. This is where this week's game is so important, it is a chance to stamp ourselves as a real team and not just a team making up numbers.  

[Moonshadow 16,238]

GWS and Norf are not easy at all this year.

[beelzebub 22,225]

The Pies are crap...it just slews the graph somewhat.  It is what it is

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

We should be 5-2 at the very least.

[Bossdog 2,002]

In hindsight it is easy to say we have had the easiest draw but at the start of the year games against Rich, Coll, Gold coast, GWS, North looked imposing

[drdrake 3,038]

10 teams a year don't play finals football, for a club like us you get to play 14 odd games against those sides, you win them you play finals.  we have a top 8 side win in the bank against GWS that covers Essendon loss, we need another this week to cover St Kilda loss. We then have 8 matches against teams out side the 8.  We beat the sides below us we play finals. 

That is the way the fixture is designed, we need to take advantage of this.

[Demonland 65,478]

15 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Obv.

 

What I was trying to say was is our form really that impressive considering the draw we've had?

[beelzebub 22,225]

5 minutes ago, Bossdog said:

In hindsight it is easy to say we have had the easiest draw but at the start of the year games against Rich, Coll, Gold coast, GWS, North looked imposing

Its all about Eddie  making excuses for his rabble    poor darlings !!! 

[beelzebub 22,225]

2 minutes ago, Demonland said:

What I was trying to say was is our form really that impressive considering the draw we've had?

what is it they say....you can only play who fronts up. We dont control that ergo....wgaff

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

4 minutes ago, Demonland said:

What I was trying to say was is our form really that impressive considering the draw we've had?

This week is the test and will answer a lot of questions.

[PaulRB 5,969]

Theres something retrospective about those stats, that messes with my head.

As in if we'd lost to Tiger and Pies and GWS, then they'd be ranked higher and our draw would have been deemed "harder"...

Is that weird, or just me? 

[beelzebub 22,225]

4 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

Theres something retrospective about those stats, that messes with my head.

As in if we'd lost to Tiger and Pies and GWS, then they'd be ranked higher and our draw would have been deemed "harder"...

Is that weird, or just me? 

exactly...logistical semantics of a fashion..    aka  gobbledigook !!

Its revisionist.....good fodder for any wanting an excuse...........

[Radar Detector 1,339]

I think the stats are slightly misleading but somewhat informative. They are basically just ranking the draw based on % instead of W-L.

I think our draw has been pretty soft to date. The fact remains that we have only beaten teams this year that we also beat last year. The real measure of our improvement will be starting to beat those sides that have historically given us trouble. That is why a win against North or the Saints would have been so valuable.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,177]

I think we've had a pretty generous draw, however we have played interstate twice and played the top of the table team along with the 5th placed team.

[Chris 2,892]

That is an incredibly flawed way of looking at it, basically they are saying that if a team gets beaten by lots then they are easier to beat, no matter who they have played. Essentially every time you give someone a shellacking you are making the draw seem easier for yourself whether that is against a bottom side or top side.

So if you are playing brilliant footy and have only played the top teams but beaten them convincingly then you have had the easier draw as their average margin will be made higher (in the losing sense) due to you winning, yet in reality that may have been the hardest draw and you are about to win everything by 100+ against the bottom teams. 

Really is using stats to say what you want them to say!

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,246]

The GWS win is looking better by the week.

[DemonLad5 1,640]

Yeah but our record does not show it. Outplayed a better team in North

Was outplayed against a worse opponent against bombers. Those games can go either way

[DeeSpencer 23,189]

We've played 4 of the bottom 7 teams in Rich, Coll, Ess and Gold Coast (given injuries). We've played 1 other 9-11 team in St Kilda. And 2 top 8 teams in GWS and North.

5 games - Bottom 7 teams left: Bris, Coll, Freo, Gold Coast, Carl

3 games - 9 - 11 teams left: Port twice, St Kilda

7 games - Top 8 teams left: Dogs, Haw - twice, Syd, Adel, Geel, West Coast

If we can pinch another 1 or 2 from the top 8 sides to counter the 1 or 2 that we will invariably lose from the bottom 7 teams then our season probably comes down to showing we are better than Port and can put in a better effort against the Saints.

If we truly are the 9th best team in the comp then we've got more games against sides below us on the ladder left than games against sides above us. So whilst the draw gets harder it's likely we only have to beat the sides below us to keep our spot.

I'm not convinced GWS have the experience required to win the flag or that North are good enough. I do think the flag winner will come from the 6 teams we are yet to play in the 8 and that's kind of exciting that we get to serve it up to them all. 

[Lord Travis 10,178]

It was already acknowledged the first half of our draw was very easy. The second half was where it gets tough. Realistically we need to beat some top 8 teams to be with a chance of finals in second half of the year. We have squandered an easy draw and realistically should be 6-1 or 5-2 at worst. Until we learn to show up every game and stop dropping games like the Essendon one we won't be a challenger. We have definitely improved but it's all about consistency now.

[DeeSpencer 23,189]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

What I was trying to say was is our form really that impressive considering the draw we've had?

The ability to stage a strong comeback and win against GWS and the North game are the 2 games more than the others that give me confidence in our form. Punishing bad sides is a good indicator but not really anything definitive. 

The Saints are travelling as well if not better than we are but they didn't get the win against GWS or North (or Port, Haw or the Dogs). 

It's hard to work out if we are going to be an 8 win team with a lot of work to do to compete with the best or if we can push as high as 12 wins and be right in finals contention. 

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

What I was trying to say was is our form really that impressive considering the draw we've had?

I think our form has been 'good' or 'positive' throughout certain games this year for sure but my 'obv' line was tongue-in-cheek and was just a response based on the info the article provides. (Which is silly info as others have pointed out).

I don't necessarily think our draw has been the 'easiest'. It has only looked that way because a we've played Richmond, Collingwood and Gold Coast who were all out of form and injury hit and I don't think anyone would have predicted them to be where they are on the ladder right now. 

That's not to say that we didn't play well in those games, which I think we absolutely did.

Regardless, the second half of the year will undoubtedly be more difficult for us and one thing we've got going for us is having next to no injuries which you'd think will change at some point and start having an effect on games. 

I'm just happy we're 4-3, sitting 9th on the ladder and that the young players are really gelling and are playing with some confidence.

It's exciting.

[ManDee 7,089]

Surely North have the easiest draw, they have only played sides beneath them on the ladder. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

What was it you wanted to prove? Find the stat that suits.

[Garbo 1,330]

Interesting fact the Dees are the only side out side the 8 to have beaten a team in the 8.