Saturday Talking Point: How far can we improve in 2016?

[Whispering_Jack 29,174]

At this time of year there's always speculation about how the various AFL clubs will fare in the season to come. Will they climb the ladder or go into decline? 

Earlier in the week, I was listening to a discussion on SEN between Mark Robinson (yes ... I know) and Andy Maher on this very topic and, in relation to Melbourne, Robbo said he doubted whether we would see very much improvement in the Demons this year, if at all.

 

Despite the progression of wins in recent seasons from 2 to 4 to 7, Robbo was unconvinced that the club would remain on an upward trajectory - not even if someone like Jesse Hogan or one or more of the many other players recently introduced into the line up had stand out seasons.

 

The reason he gave was that he was unimpressed by the defensive style of play under Paul Roos.

 

I think he might have misunderstood the basis of Roos' thinking and underestimated the recent work, particularly in this preseason of coach-in-waiting Simon Goodwin.

 

I remain always the eternal optimist (at this time of year at least) and I can easily see us with a 50/50 record or better in 2016 which would place us on the cusp of a finals appearance. The Bulldogs went from 7 wins in 2014 to 14 in 2015.

 

Is there any reason why the Demons can't come close to achieving the same?

[beelzebub 23,196]

Not sure how to deal with a topic where Robbo is quoted as the baseline

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

I'm genuinely optimistic this year of continued improvement and to credibly contend for a finals spot ( if not just sneak in), like most of us have not felt this way in 10 years....  but I haven't yet heard anyone I'm the media say we will improve on last year which I have found surprising. King, Ralph and now slobbo have all said we will go backwards albeit they haven't suggested any logical reason for why  this to be the case. 

I don't think we are being biased or looking through rose colored glasses, but are they just missing something? 

I'll be more concerned when I hear a credible journalist write us off this year 

[jnrmac 19,890]

Go and give yourself a good flogging for listening to Mark Robinson....

[beelzebub 23,196]

How will will do....a lot better then that Windy Hill mob !!

12 wins...( there..ive said it ) 

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

Problem with picking a top 8 is that many think the cats port Collingwood and gws will all step up and push for finals spots. I'm not as convinced. Even some still think the sun's are on the rise - I think their culture is stuffed and players want out. So who falls away ? The pretender tigers,  surely norf can't fluke another prelim.  Will freo or the swans drop away ? Dogs and crows and west coast could go either way? 

I could see why we don't necessarily features in anyone's thinking. But I also know that there's always at least one if not two smokeys each year that no one expects. I'm hoping we'll be one if them that takes the comp by surprised.  We are primed for this 

[KingDingAling 3,737]

I think we can - and will - make the 8. No excuses this year, boys are ready. Its finals time.

[Whispering_Jack 29,174]

32 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Go and give yourself a good flogging for listening to Mark Robinson....

Apologies for that but my car radio is locked on SEN, Robbo and the rest notwithstanding because I prefer sports news over jaundiced political discussion, inane babbling, rap music and heavy metal. If I want to listen to music, I have my own collection that I can connect to. 

[Roger Mellie 3,873]

On our long list of streaks to be broken, is winning two games in a row.

We need to get our confidence up and get on a roll and for me that could be the key.

[Chelly 808]

 

According to the bookies, we are going to fall to 14th and are a long way off contention for a final eight position:-

$4.25 Hawthorn

$6.00 West Coast

$9.00 Fremantle Geelong

$12.00 Port Adelaide Sydney

$15.00 Richmond

$21.00 North Melbourne

$26.00 Western Bulldogs

$34.00 Collingwood

$51.00 Adelaide GWS Giants

$67.00 Gold Coast Suns

$201.00 Melbourne

$251.00 St Kilda

$301.00 Brisbane Lions

$501.00 Carlton Essendon 

[The Backyard Charizard 1,202]

Like most, I am genuinely optimistic between January and April when it comes to our beloved Demons.  

I don't believe we will make finals this year, of course I hope like hell that the club proves me wrong, but I just can't see too many of the other teams above us slipping.

I just want to see 2 of the younger bunch (18-24) have huge breakout years.  For instance, I want the footy world to be talking about Melbourne as a legitimate threat from 2017 onwards.

So, basically, this is what I want to see....

• 100% competitive in ALL games
• 8-11 wins
• Last year's "break out" players to continue upward trend
• 2 youngsters to blow the competition away to the point where there is some actual HYPE around our 2017 season (which in turn helps trade prospects)
• A MFC player to finish Top 5 in the Brownlow
• A few big signatures on locked in by August

If the above happens then it's tissues and lube all round in this household! 

[John Dee 445]

I think that this is an 8-10 year. Much of this depends on us keeping our best team on the ground and the general improvement of our younger brigade. I expect us to be in the throng just outside the eight.

I also don't get the hype around Collingwood and Geelong, I think they will struggle to make the eight and that we might even finish above them.

[Deeoldfart 7,993]

55 minutes ago, Chelly said:

According to the bookies, we are going to fall to 14th and are a long way off contention for a final eight position:-

Even in my worst nightmares that doesn't happen!  Unless we have a hellish run with injuries, I am very confident we will finish with somewhere between 9 and 12 wins for the season, and the bookies will be far more positive about our prospects for 2017 and beyond.

[george_on_the_outer 7,427]

Thanks to the lop-sided AFL fixturing it is going to be difficult for us to move up the ladder this year, despite what I think will be improved performances on-field.

As Chelly has shown the bookies have 4 teams below us.  We play each of them only once.  Maybe that gives us 4 wins

Above us in the betting we have Suns, Giants, Adelaide, Collingwood, and Bulldogs.  2 games against Collingwood and the Suns. Adelaide game is fortunately in Melbourne.

Can we win half of those games?  That gives us 3-4 wins.  Win them all? Gives us 7.

So beating all these teams gives us 11 wins.

I don't think we are at the stage of beating Hawthorn, Fremantle, WCE, or Sydney. 

To really progress we have to start putting wins up against North, Richmond, Port and Geelong.  We have shown we can beat or compete against these. 

So with our draw we need to beat 2 or 3 of these sides, not drop games against Bulldogs,Adelaide, Suns, Giants and Collingwood, and definitely win against Carlton, Essendon, Saints and Lions.  A big call in anyones book. 

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Mark "Robbo" Robinson is genuinely a fat fool.

I don't think he's ever expressed a view, on anything, that I've respected.

The whole focus of the preseason this year seems to have been on ball movement and introducing an attacking dimension to the game plan. A journalist could research this in less than one minute. It's all over the club's official website.

That this fat idiot is seemingly unaware of this shows what a fat, lazy moron he really is.

I'm not sure where we will finish this year, but I will be super disappointed with anything less than 9 wins. And I'm actually expecting a couple more than that.

[beelzebub 23,196]

The thing about bookie odds is that they are relational to the money being wagered. This in turn reflects a parochial perception of what MIGHT happen. 

As with any horse race it seldom pans out that way.

[whatwhat say what 22,086]

It may seem strange, but we could actually win less games in 2016 than 2015 and be a better side, simply by being in games for longer.

 

If we can bridge the gap btw our best and our worst footy then we will have improved significantly as a side.

 

Like most, I think the #1 aim is to be in games to win them deep into the last quarter, rather than being blown away early on as has been the case for too many years.

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

Odds of leceister city winning the EPL at the start of the season were 500-1 

Now top in februray abd likely to win it. Anything can happen ...just saying 

[beelzebub 23,196]

Really not fussed what the odds are regarding where this should influence where we finish. Might see what silly money is on offer for us making finals

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,207]

6 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Really not fussed what the odds are regarding where this should influence where we finish. Might see what silly money is on offer for us making finals

Doesn't sound silly at all. 13 wins got North in 8th spot last year. We won 7 plus if we weren't so ......... up we should of beaten Saints/Carlton/Essendon. That's only an improvement of 3, 4 to be safe.

[Willmoy1947 3,957]

WJ does any other supporter site purposely hurt (with words of derision) the rabid media as much as what ours does?

With that in mind do they have an excuse?

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,207]

4 hours ago, Chelly said:

 

According to the bookies, we are going to fall to 14th and are a long way off contention for a final eight position:-

$4.25 Hawthorn

$6.00 West Coast

$9.00 Fremantle Geelong

$12.00 Port Adelaide Sydney

$15.00 Richmond

$21.00 North Melbourne

$26.00 Western Bulldogs

$34.00 Collingwood

$51.00 Adelaide GWS Giants

$67.00 Gold Coast Suns

$201.00 Melbourne

$251.00 St Kilda

$301.00 Brisbane Lions

$501.00 Carlton Essendon 

Stupid question....that's the odds for making the 8?....the bookies will go broke

[beelzebub 23,196]

Premiership odds I'd say

[beelzebub 23,196]

Sportsbet offering $9 for Dees to make 8

Might just throw a C-note on that

[Sir Why You Little 36,602]

We can make the 8 this year

but we are thin at CHF & in the Ruck so we need the injuries to be low

i am hoping that some unknown players force their way into the side..