NATIONAL DRAFT PICKS 3 & 7

[Dr. Gonzo 24,297]

Well thats a bit of a stretch though.. if we pick a player at pick 7 and he turns out to be a star and Oliver just a good honest footballer?

The reason why we wont pick Oliver is the the exact comment i made about Mathieson. We have a plethora of inside mids already in Vince Jones Tyson Viney Vandenberg Brayshaw Salem ANB. Plus waiting in the wings is Petracca and Trengove also.

With Parish probably a monty for pick 3 its a no brainer because he will add the outside class that we desperately lack. And with Toumpas being a fail this leaves us with Billy Stretch Matt Jones Salem Vince and thats about who i can think off. Parish will compliment those inside on ballers. Also take into consideration that the possible chance of getting Dion Prestia next year who is another powerful inside midfielder.

With pick 7 i think we will go tall with Weideman Curnow or possibly even Collins. Then again we might go for the class of Darcy Tucker who is a half back wingman type similar to Salem.

Vince and Jones won't be around forever and it's pretty disingenuous to label Salem, Brayshaw and Petracca as "inside mids". You could also add Trengove in the same boat but who knows if he'll ever play again.

I dont think we have enough midfield depth that we can pass on a good thing however I agree we want some class users of the ball which Parish should hopefully assist with.

[Spin-it-to-Goodwin-it 579]

That's a fair summation of the "point of difference" between Parish as a junior and the player Toumpas turned out to be at Melbourne but what concerns me is that if we draft Parish, will we be able to successfully ensure his transition from a "jet" at junior level to an elite player in the AFL?

There are no guarantees but the set up at the club under Paul Roos and the system of development with both coaching and fitness gives me some comfort.

Kevin "Shifter" Sheahan said about Parish that he's the "jet" of this year's draft pool and that in most years there are only one or two such players.

My concern is that in the past we have drafted "jets" but routinely failed the transition process. You can put all of Johnstone, Sylvia, Watts, Scully and Toumpas in that category - for one reason or another be it their temperament, ego, injuries and our own lack of ability, personnel or facilities and the club environment, we never got the best out of them.

Since the arrival of Roos and subsequently McCartney, we appear to be on the path to getting it right which means that whoever we take, the mistakes of the past are less likely to be repeated. Players like Hogan, Salem and Brayshaw are already the beneficiaries, hopefully Petracca, Stretch, Parish and a few others will be added to that list in the very near future.

And lets hope a club was paying him to tank in the combine results, because they are fairly underwhelming for a potential pick 3.

3.07sec 20m sprint and 13.8 Beep - Didn't imagine him being that bad. Results that don't seem to match what you see in the vision and also overall performance/ domination.

Didn't imagine him being that bad?

[DemonLad5 1,642]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-28/27-days-to-the-draft-meet-one-of-the-best-mids-in-the-draft-darcy-parish

Darcy Parish's Draft Trumps video is out this morning.

[Whispering_Jack 30,664]

Those damn tests again.

I want footballers.

Tell me about Jack Watts' 20 metre sprint time again.

[Gator 17,454]

Multiple draft threads but thought this fits best here.

Obviously hard to pick how a player will develop when they're 17-18. It's interesting hearing that people think the likes of Curnow or Francis could develop into a tall midfielder (a la Fyfe). Thought it might be interesting to compare what people were saying about Fyfe around this time of his draft year. For those of you that remember, it was a bit of a surprise Freo taking him as early as 20 - some suggesting young ruck / forward prospects Gawn and Fitzpatrick were on their radar and of course we'd just got Tapscott at 18!

From Quigley on Big Footy - http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2009-big-footy-official-phantom-draft-the-real-deal-selections-only-thread.649044/page-2

Quigley is the best writer about junior footy I've seen on BF (other than Wisbey). Imo, he's a mile ahead of the prolific Knightmare. Unfortunately, I don't think he's done the last couple of years.

[Gator 17,454]

And lets hope a club was paying him to tank in the combine results, because they are fairly underwhelming for a potential pick 3.

3.07sec 20m sprint and 13.8 Beep - Didn't imagine him being that bad. Results that don't seem to match what you see in the vision and also overall performance/ domination.

Didn't imagine him being that bad?

Maybe he just does that football thing really well ?

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

And lets hope a club was paying him to tank in the combine results, because they are fairly underwhelming for a potential pick 3.

3.07sec 20m sprint and 13.8 Beep - Didn't imagine him being that bad. Results that don't seem to match what you see in the vision and also overall performance/ domination.

Didn't imagine him being that bad?

The 18-year-old averaged 28 disposals a game at TAC Cup level (16 contested and 12 uncontested), plus seven clearances and five inside-50 entries.

Main thing i took out of that article.

I remember reading something about Steele Sidebottoms combine, check it out if you can find it, but his results were pathetic, but he can play that guy

[nutbean 8,838]

Beg to differ and in fact am happy to know that Melbourne's recruiters won't be deciding who to select at the national draft on the basis of highlights packages and you tube videos which are in essence one or two minute grabs designed to highlight the good aspects of a player, most often when he has the ball in hand and/or disposing of it. Therefore, you generally see the spectacular stuff but don't learn much about the player himself.

Things like what he's doing when he doesn't have the footy, whether he's inclined to chase and put pressure on his opponent.

And I bet you won't see a player's weaknesses. You won't see the dropped marks, fumbles or when he doesn't (or can't) chase an opponent. You don't necessarily tell whether a player's fit or lazy. All you see is highlights.

Which means you can't tell whether a player is consistent and, without detracting from Francis who I like for his versatility, my viewing of games of Under 18 championships and other games in full tells me that he has nothing like the consistency in performance of a Darcy Parish. From what I've seen of the latter, he consistently produces high quality performances even when his team is being badly beaten. He's all class in the midfield, solid on both left and right sides and a quick thinker.

My reviewing of a couple of Vic Country matches also convinces me that Rhys Mathieson would be a value pick if available at 7. The knock on him from some of those who must be working off highlight reels is that his decision making and disposal are supposed to be poor. I disagree and if you care to check out the game between Vic Country and SA played 26/6/15 at Simonds Stadium and televised live on Foxtel you will see why Weitering, Schache and Parish are strong favourites to take off the draft trifecta and why Mathieson will be a top 10 draft pick. You can also check out Francis playing for SA. He had a bad day and very few highlights.

Actually - you are positively agreeing with what I was suggesting.

I am sure that our recruiters watch plenty of games and do all the homework you are suggesting. Even from your homework of watching more than two minutes of youtube footage you have pointed out that Francis lacks the consistency of Parish. This will never become obvious from a 2 minute highlight reel.

From last years crop - Laverde 2 minute grab was fabulous - Brayshaws, to my mind, was underwhelming. Even the selection of footage is interesting in us forming opinions - there was two lots of highlight footage for Petracca - the most viewed one showed very iffy disposal, the second highlights reel showed the exact opposite.

I live fairly close to the Oakleigh chargers ground - last year there was Melbourne Metro "intra" practice season in the middle of the year and i was blown away that even for a practice season there was 10 groups of recruiters that I actually noticed there.

We have recruiters that watch lots of games and still not get it right and yet we have posters who are quite adamant on who we should take ( and scathing if we don't take said recruit) based on 2 minutes of youtube footage. It is sheer folly.

I will reignite the Wines/Toumpas debate - recruiters see an enormous amount of junior football. There was universal agreement that Toumpas was a top 2-4 pick with Wines being not as highly rated. This is by guys who watch a lot of football. It was not a horrible mistake that Toumpas was selected by us - it is a horrible outcome that Wines turned out to be so good and Toumpas a bust.

[nutbean 8,838]

Nah, that would take a bit. I didn't have Toumpas in my top 20 that year, I can't see us stuffing up this pick, at least not to that extent.

You should be a full time recruiter as you were the only "expert" who didn't have Toumpas going top 5.

[Dinosaur Rover 197]

With it so hard for experienced recruiters to get it right what are the odds of a player getting to 100 games or other worthwhile benchmark?

When discounted for risk do recruiters overvalue them when trading?

[Macca 17,033]

Nah, that would take a bit. I didn't have Toumpas in my top 20 that year, I can't see us stuffing up this pick, at least not to that extent.

IMO Wines was a standout, in yours Whitfield was. No big deal. I wrote my opinion at the time, I am not re-writing history, just rehashing my views.

Yet you had Toumpas ahead of Wines just prior to the draft

In fact, you had Toumpas as a standout of that draft and you wanted the club to draft him ... you had him in front of Stringer as well.

Post #69 of this thread

[nutbean 8,838]

Multiple draft threads but thought this fits best here.

Obviously hard to pick how a player will develop when they're 17-18. It's interesting hearing that people think the likes of Curnow or Francis could develop into a tall midfielder (a la Fyfe). Thought it might be interesting to compare what people were saying about Fyfe around this time of his draft year. For those of you that remember, it was a bit of a surprise Freo taking him as early as 20 - some suggesting young ruck / forward prospects Gawn and Fitzpatrick were on their radar and of course we'd just got Tapscott at 18!

From Quigley on Big Footy - http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2009-big-footy-official-phantom-draft-the-real-deal-selections-only-thread.649044/page-2

From AFL draft info - http://afldraftinfo.blogspot.com.au/2009/10/nat-fyfe-claremontwa-draft-profile.html

It's funny reading some of his weaknesses back then knowing what he's become eg tendency to fumble, concern about ability to bulk up, does not win many possessions etc and his potential was rated as "6-8.5 out of 10" (love to see the player with potential of 9.5!)

Many on here would have passed on Fyfe - "no skinny kids" - we need ready to go footballers !

[nutbean 8,838]

Yet you had Toumpas ahead of Wines just prior to the draft

In fact, you had Toumpas as a standout of that draft and you wanted the club to draft him ... you had him in front of Stringer as well.

Post #69 of this thread

The digital footprint strikes again !

[Bay Riffin 1,480]

Many on here would have passed on Fyfe - "no skinny kids" - we need ready to go footballers !

Hang on fyfe was big enough to take a lot if contested marks at full forward. He would have been a slightly shorter jack watts. Different to being a short very light mid like parish. I will be surprised if they take parish, or they must think he is an out and out gun with pace skills etc. The combine suggests not.

[rjay 25,088]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-28/27-days-to-the-draft-meet-one-of-the-best-mids-in-the-draft-darcy-parish

Darcy Parish's Draft Trumps video is out this morning.

Hang on fyfe was big enough to take a lot if contested marks at full forward. He would have been a slightly shorter jack watts. Different to being a short very light mid like parish. I will be surprised if they take parish, or they must think he is an out and out gun with pace skills etc. The combine suggests not.

Another duel sided player like Brayshaw, I wouldn't be concerned with combine results. A bit of the Sam Mitchell's in the way he distributes the ball quickly by hand.

Anyway, I look forward to see who we pick up. As has been mentioned by a few on here, I will be happy with who we take...this footy department is getting runs on the board.

[jnrmac 20,186]

Yet you had Toumpas ahead of Wines just prior to the draft

In fact, you had Toumpas as a standout of that draft and you wanted the club to draft him ... you had him in front of Stringer as well.

Post #69 of this thread

Snap

[jnrmac 20,186]

Hang on fyfe was big enough to take a lot if contested marks at full forward. He would have been a slightly shorter jack watts. Different to being a short very light mid like parish. I will be surprised if they take parish, or they must think he is an out and out gun with pace skills etc. The combine suggests not.

Maybe he's been told to go easy as he's a lock for a few clubs.....

[jnrmac 20,186]

Anyone see a bit of Stephen Tingay in that Parish video?

Like the farmer work ethic. Very Nat Fyffe as well...

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

Actually - you are positively agreeing with what I was suggesting.

I am sure that our recruiters watch plenty of games and do all the homework you are suggesting. Even from your homework of watching more than two minutes of youtube footage you have pointed out that Francis lacks the consistency of Parish. This will never become obvious from a 2 minute highlight reel.

From last years crop - Laverde 2 minute grab was fabulous - Brayshaws, to my mind, was underwhelming. Even the selection of footage is interesting in us forming opinions - there was two lots of highlight footage for Petracca - the most viewed one showed very iffy disposal, the second highlights reel showed the exact opposite.

I live fairly close to the Oakleigh chargers ground - last year there was Melbourne Metro "intra" practice season in the middle of the year and i was blown away that even for a practice season there was 10 groups of recruiters that I actually noticed there.

We have recruiters that watch lots of games and still not get it right and yet we have posters who are quite adamant on who we should take ( and scathing if we don't take said recruit) based on 2 minutes of youtube footage. It is sheer folly.

I will reignite the Wines/Toumpas debate - recruiters see an enormous amount of junior football. There was universal agreement that Toumpas was a top 2-4 pick with Wines being not as highly rated. This is by guys who watch a lot of football. It was not a horrible mistake that Toumpas was selected by us - it is a horrible outcome that Wines turned out to be so good and Toumpas a bust.

Some good points.

Just on the Toumpas/Wines talk, I still firmly believe that the book is still open.

It'll be interesting to revisit the debate at the end of their careers but I have no doubt Toumpas will eventually show why he was so highly rated. He's a confidence player, we played him too early in his career with a limited pre-season and coming off hip surgery. It was basically a horrible snowball effect.

He will play his best footy with Port and I think the change is what will contribute to that.

Edited October 28, 2015 by stevethemanjordan

[DubDee 26,117]

we should go through the 6-7 possibles to draft and filter them by:

• manic competitiveness
• strong mentally
• willingness to work hard

only the ones who tick all the boxes should be looked at further for their skill/talent.

I think we can all say Watts/Toumpas/Silvia etc would not make it through this checklist. Talent only gets you so far, it is the driven players like Selwood, Fyfe who become stars. I doubt their draft camp stats were off the charts

[wattsindawes 57]

Could be a Sam Mitchell type in Parish. Looks decent on both sides, handballs frequently. Not quick but touted as a 'footballer'. Knocks on Mitchell is that he is slow - been pretty prolific in recent years.

[Gator 17,454]

Some good points.

Just on the Toumpas/Wines talk, I still firmly believe that the book is still open.

It'll be interesting to revisit the debate at the end of their careers but I have no doubt Toumpas will eventually show why he was so highly rated. He's a confidence player, we played him too early in his career. It was basically a horrible snowball effect.

He will play his best footy with Port and I think the change is what will contribute to that.

It's true that he's a confidence player.

In juniors he could get away with being a poor contested ball winner, whereas it has found him out at AFL level. I have strong doubts he'll ever be better than a bog ordinary AFL player.

[H_T 3,049]

Anyone see a bit of Stephen Tingay in that Parish video?

Like the farmer work ethic. Very Nat Fyffe as well...

Yeah I do jnr! Good call IMO.

His ball drop and kicking are very similar.

Thanks for these links on Parish guys and AoB for his recent post on the links yesterday, or day prior. I can see why Parish is highly rated and have no issue with selecting him.

This draft is touted as shallow by many, and I'm pumped that our footy guru's netted picks 3 and 7. Pretty comfortable with all the prospects tbh.

[KingDingAling 3,758]

Yet you had Toumpas ahead of Wines just prior to the draft

In fact, you had Toumpas as a standout of that draft and you wanted the club to draft him ... you had him in front of Stringer as well.

Post #69 of this thread

Wow, that impressive. I didn't realise I was so high on Stringer.

[H_T 3,049]

Wow, that impressive. I didn't realise I was so high on Stringer.

You're surprised about Stringer? Nice side-step.

How about Toumpas?

That's impressive.