Round 1 predictions

[InVINCEable 358]

What does everyone think? I honestly think we'll win by about 18 points, everyones saying how bad how forward line is looking but to be quite honest not one of St Kildas positions look up to par, GO THE DEES! :D

[RalphiusMaximus 6,012]

We should win, but I and probably everyone else on here am hesitant to make the call given how badly we've been let down before. Don't want to jinx it.

[InVINCEable 358]

We should win, but I and probably everyone else on here am hesitant to make the call given how badly we've been let down before. Don't want to jinx it.

Yeah true, but i've never been as confident about winning a match as i am now.

[Ted Lasso 18,797]

Us by 35, we saw last year what not having an AFL standard midfield does to a team, they don't even have a Nathan Jones to prop them up,

the biggest thing will be about if we can kick a winning score, i reckon we will get it out of the middle enough and have so much more of the ball that we will get plenty of opportunity

[sydneydee 684]

Melbourne by 31 points. Fitz with 5, Watts BOG

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,655]

Melbourne by 31 points. Fitz with 5, Watts BOG

No pressure

[hardtack 10,426]

Saints minus a midfield and Dees for once with a midfield means we should win purely by weight of numbers (of forward 50 entries). I'm thinking we will get this by 6 to 8 goals.

[Ted Lasso 18,797]

Tipping a good mix of goals

Howe to kick 4-5

One of Bernie Vince or Nathan Jones to have a day out and get the three votes.

[BarnDee 287]

im picking us to get it done by 8-10 goals , cross BOG

[jazza 1,323]

sitting 3 rows back from dugout.see you all there and have a great night.

31 points

[Rob Mac...... 635]

Ok I'll tip the Saints to surprise us and lead most of the day. Our boys won't drop their heads, will hang in and come from behind to win a thriller by 4 points! ..and we'll all go nuts. :-)

[Sir Why You Little 36,679]

I wish i was as confident as all of you guys!!!

[Guest]

This place will go into meltdown if we lose

[Bossdog 2,002]

I too am nervous......But then I remember that it is only a game....a form of entertainment to look forward each weekend

If we lose, its not the end of the world......as long as you have a roof over your head and some food in the pantry and your loved ones are ok......then you look forward to next week and the week after

Have I convinced anyone yet????

[Chook 14,998]

I too am nervous......But then I remember that it is only a game....a form of entertainment to look forward each weekend

If we lose, its not the end of the world......as long as you have a roof over your head and some food in the pantry and your loved ones are ok......then you look forward to next week and the week after

Have I convinced anyone yet????

You can keep your roofs and your food and your loved ones. I just want a win.

[Pennant St Dee 12,712]

Expecting better because of Roos influence and hardened mids, but as with most of you have been burnt to many times. Really nervous and just hope I am not watching this game thinking "Here we go again"

[Vipercrunch 2,820]

Rohan Bail starting to win back some fans. The guys has had a really rough 12 months with the multiple concussions and I hope he can get some consistent footy early this year and become a dependable player for us.

Hoping for a win. Any size will do me.

[Little Goffy 14,082]

But by bit, picking apart St Kilda.

Let's start with the St Kilda midfield stats for 2013

Top 5 (Average per game, lazily rounded)

Disposals: Montagna 29, Steven 27, Dal Santo 25, Hayes 23, Armitage 21

Clearances: Steven 5, Hayes 5, Armitage 4, Montagna 4, Dal Santo 4

Tackles: Armitage 5, Hayes 5, Steven 4, Montagna 4, Jones 4

Inside 50s: Montagna 4, Hayes 4, Steven 4, Armitage 4 Ray, 4

Goal Assists: Milera 1.1, Schneider 0.8, Hayes 0.7, Steven 0.7, Montagna 0.7

Hitouts: McEvoy 20, Hickey, 12

Sorry, didn't do much formatting, looks like a jumble. So to simplify I highlighted the players who will be on the field on saturday...

So... Armitage it is.

An extra note on just what has been lost - for their center-clearance figures, only Jones and Armitage are left who averaged more than 1 per game in 2013. Schneider and McEvoy were also in their top 10. Aside from those named above, the entire rest of the Saint's team combined for not quite 3 center clearances a game.

The Saint's aren't just missing players, they are missing their entire infrastructure and midfield system. They've gone from a midfield core that has been playing together for ten years to a midfield core that has never, ever, set up together before.

Incredibly, Tom Hickey vs Jake Spencer is looking like an even match-up in the ruck, and Hickey will have even less relief options than Spencer will. Even Spencer's extra 7 kilos might tell by the end of the game.

This game was tailor-made for our new midfield to enjoy itself and really crunch in hard, denying all initiative to what will be a St Kilda on-ball group that is physically lighter, inexperienced, and which has almost entirely played as a support act to the guns which have dominated the Saint's midfield for most of a decade.

Further compounding the problem for the Saints, the Demons have by necessity put together a list with midfielders on almost every line.

In defence, Georgio appears to be a more stalwart type than one with flair and run (though his disposal efficiency is excellent), but with Frawley and McDonald both being among the most mobile tall defenders in the game, the scene is set for a lot of running.

This is mirrored by the Demon forward line's minimal presence of talls, just the steady grind of Pederson and the classic young tall forward mystery of Fitzpatrick. Howe, who was billed at the start of preseason as playing more time up the ground and in the midfield given our wealth of tall forward options (cry about that later), is named as a forward pocket. Byrnes and Kennedy-Harris provide small forward targets, but again, Byrnes career has been spent with regular rotations through the midfield. He may not be especially inspiring, but he will get a lot of time on ground.

Also named up forward for the Demons are the known running machines Bail and Cross. Some my argue that Bail should indeed focus on cross country, but the 'whole-team odometer' just keeps climbing. And it all adds up, especially with the ball expected to be sailing in from the midfield on a regular basis.

St Kilda's forward line looks traditionally structured, with Riewoldt the prime CHF, a couple of true talls (Maister and Stanley) and a selection of potentially dangerous young mosquitoes to send in. But keeping the likes of Templeton, Billings and Saunders up forward where they can dangerous means eating into the rotations for the depleted Saints midfield. Or it means running them the length of the ground over and over.

All three of them, plus Tom Curren, would be candidates for the sub's vest; basically skinny teenagers with barely a game between them, all four under 80kgs, in a team which must keep as many of it's 'full time' midfielders and especially onballers out there for as much of the game as possible. You'd have to feel for poor Dunstan, who'll be asked to not just contribute but be one of the key figures at most stoppages for the game.

And there's the rub.

Not only are St Kilda missing their best midfielders and their ruck, through trade, injury and suspension, they simply don't have even the solid contributors to the midfield that they need to sustain the game. W'ere talking about a scenario where, if it were Melbourne, Salem, Jones and Kennedy-Harris would be asked to carry the main on-ball load. Talented or not, it just can't work and will get uglier and uglier.

Listing the 'true midfielder' rotation options ends the story.

Melbourne

Jones, Vince, Michie, Tyson, Cross, Trengove, Toumpas, Grimes, Watts,

St Kilda

Jones, Armitage, Ray, Dunstan, Newnes, Savage, Geary

It is going to be a killing. I'd be surprised if the margin was even respectable. They simply don't have anyone capable of doing damage in there.

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

Any Landers going and sitting in lev 1 Aisle 41??

[John Crow Batty 8,792]

This place will go into meltdown if we lose

All the melting down has occured. Only oxidising and vaporising left.

Edited March 21, 2014 by america de cali

[InVINCEable 358]

Any Landers going and sitting in lev 1 Aisle 41??

I'll go check my ticket

[Damo 3,257]

All the anticipation, draft picks and pre-season training is over.

Now the reality is almost upon us.

Winter is coming.

[InVINCEable 358]

Any Landers going and sitting in lev 1 Aisle 41??

Nah i'm in level 3

[InVINCEable 358]

All the anticipation, draft picks and pre-season training is over.

Now the reality is almost upon us.

Winter is coming.

Haahhahhaha

[InVINCEable 358]

I've never been to Etihad stadium, does anyone know where level 3 is there?