Bit of a head scratcher that Trac wasn't in the middle at the last centre bounce 

2 minutes ago, binman said:

He should have gone for goal. He had to pick out roo with a tricky kick - open goal square 40 metres our have a ping and let it slide thru.

Agree. He could have run an extra 10 or so metres and had a shot. Its the thought process in the heat of the moment that gets up my nose. And we see it time and time again. Players consistently taking the wrong option. Its frustrating, its bloody hard to watch, and I probably wont for much longer

The piece of play where Windsor gathers and then dodges 2 GWS players and hits up Jefferson lace out was worth the price of admission. He wasn't prolific but boy oh boy was he good. If Max had dished off to him like he should have we may well have won today. The other gold was Xavier Lindsay, not only is he clean, calm and skilled he doesn't mind backing into a pack. Those 2 alone will see us improve this year. I had a great day with my kids. My Fifteen year old daughter who's a Demon but never been a massive fan said, and I quote "I get it now, let's go every week" Bugger for losing but my confidence in what lies ahead hasn't diminished because of a 3 point loss to the GF favourite.

3 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Here is my Stats Files post:

 

Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney (Round 1, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20250108

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Efficiency	69.7	70.0	-0.2
Kicking Efficiency	59.9	59.6	+0.3
Territory/Attack
Inside 50s	56	52	+4
Shots At Goal	29	24	+5
Shots Per Inside 50	51.8	46.2	+5.6
Marks Inside 50	5	7	-2
Contest
Contested Possessions	149	133	+16
Ground Ball Gets	96	97	-1
Post Clearance Contested Possessions	59	55	+4
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	37	45	-8
Centre Clearances	12	12	+0
Stoppage Clearances	24	36	-12
Contested Marks	7	5	+2
Defense
Intercepts	77	72	+5
Intercept Marks	17	10	+7
Tackles	60	71	-11
Tackles Inside 50	9	8	+1
Def One On One Loss %	22.2	16.7	+5.6
Ruck
Hitouts	51	26	+25
Hitouts To Advantage	16	7	+9

Player Ratings

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match
Max Gawn	4.7	6.2	6.9	1.4	19.2
Christian Petracca	3.3	9.8	2.1	1.5	16.8
Tom McDonald	5.6	2.4	3.7	4.7	16.4
Tom Sparrow	0.3	1.9	9.0	3.1	14.3
Jake Lever	3.6	2.5	5.6	1.5	13.1
Harrison Petty	3.1	6.1	2.0	1.7	12.9
Kade Chandler	0.5	6.7	2.5	2.5	12.2
Jake Bowey	2.3	2.7	4.3	2.5	11.8
Xavier Lindsay	1.9	3.4	1.5	4.2	11.0
Caleb Windsor	0.9	1.9	5.6	1.8	10.2
Jack Henderson	3.9	3.1	1.6	1.4	10.1
Ed Langdon	5.5	0.3	1.5	2.4	9.7
Christian Salem	4.9	−0.1	2.4	2.2	9.4
Clayton Oliver	2.2	0.8	4.4	1.4	8.9
Aidan Johnson	1.0	−0.5	8.6	−0.5	8.6
Jacob van Rooyen	0.8	1.1	3.4	2.8	8.1
Matthew Jefferson	2.6	0.0	0.4	3.3	6.4
Jack Viney	5.5	3.1	0.5	−2.8	6.2
Trent Rivers	2.5	1.1	0.8	1.1	5.5
Bayley Fritsch	0.8	−1.8	3.5	1.9	4.4
Harry Sharp	0.7	2.5	−0.4	1.6	4.4
Blake Howes	2.6	−1.1	2.1	0.0	3.6
Harvey Langford	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.2	3.2

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	6	4	+2
Loose Ball Get	11	16	-5
Contested Mark	1	2	-1
Ruck Hard Ball Get	0	1	-1
Gather From Hitout	3	2	+1
Contested Knock On	4	0	+4
Free For	3	1	+2
Total	28	26	+2
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	4	4	0
Loose Ball Get	18	19	-1
Contested Mark	2	0	+2
Contested Knock On	1	4	-3
Free For	2	1	+1
Total	27	28	-1
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	8	5	+3
Loose Ball Get	29	40	-11
Contested Mark	3	2	+1
Contested Knock On	4	3	+1
Free For	15	5	+10
Total	59	55	+4
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	14	10	+4
Loose Ball Get	45	42	+3
Contested Mark	4	3	+1
Ruck Hard Ball Get	3	1	+2
Gather From Hitout	12	7	+5
Contested Knock On	7	5	+2
Free For	5	10	-5
Total	90	78	+12

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.
• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.
• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	81.8	74	67%	+7.9
Greater Western Sydney	73.9	77	33%		+3	+10.9

	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	29	11.6 72	37.9%	81.8	−9.8	2.82	−0.34
Greater Western Sydney	24	11.8 74	45.8%	72.9	+1.1	3.04	+0.04
General Play
Melbourne	18	10.2 62	55.6%	54.1	+7.9	3.00	+0.44
Greater Western Sydney	15	6.5 41	40.0%	40.4	+0.6	2.70	+0.04
Set Position
Melbourne	11	1.4 10	9.1%	27.8	−17.8	2.52	−1.61
Greater Western Sydney	9	5.3 33	55.6%	32.5	+0.5	3.61	+0.06

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.
• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.
• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
• +/-: total score above or below expected score.
• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

 

 

Territory (time in zones)

Region	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	Season
Half
Forward	53%	48%	61%	42%	51%	51%
Defensive	47%	52%	39%	58%	49%	49%
Region
Forward 50	22%	18%	32%	22%	23%	23%
Attacking Midfield	31%	30%	30%	21%	28%	28%
Defensive Midfield	25%	24%	19%	28%	24%	24%
Defensive 50	22%	28%	19%	30%	25%	25%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	0.0 0	1.0 6	-6
Centre Bounce	4.2 26	1.1 7	+19
Stoppage (Other)	3.1 19	3.2 20	-1
Turnover	4.5 29	6.8 44	-15

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	0	0.0	6	6.0
Centre Bounce	26	26.0	7	7.0
Stoppage (Other)	19	19.0	20	20.0
Turnover	29	29.0	44	44.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Score Source	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	26	26.0	7	7.0
Kick-in	D50	0	0.0	6	6.0
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	18	18.0	13	13.0
Stoppage (Other)	F50	1	1.0	7	7.0
Turnover	D50	1	1.0	7	7.0
Turnover	Centre	0	0.0	7	7.0
Turnover	Wing	21	21.0	22	22.0
Turnover	F50	7	7.0	8	8.0

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	1	1.0	13	13.0
Centre	26	26.0	14	14.0
Wing	39	39.0	35	35.0
F50	8	8.0	15	15.0

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	1	1.0	13	13.0
Defensive midfield	6	6.0	13	13.0
Centre bounce	26	26.0	7	7.0
Attacking midfield	33	33.0	29	29.0
Forward 50	8	8.0	15	15.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
7	7.0	26	26.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	24	92%	92.3%	85.0%
Christian Petracca	21	81%	80.8%	55.8%
Clayton Oliver	19	73%	73.1%	70.7%
Jack Viney	18	69%	69.2%	69.1%
Tom Sparrow	9	35%	34.6%	37.7%
Trent Rivers	8	31%	30.8%	29.9%
Aidan Johnson	2	8%	7.7%
Harvey Langford	2	8%	7.7%
Ed Langdon	1	4%	3.8%	0.7%
Christian Salem	0	0%	0.0%	12.3%
Harrison Petty	0	0%	0.0%	7.5%
Jacob van Rooyen	0	0%	0.0%	17.8%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	77	75%	75.5%	81.1%
Aidan Johnson	25	25%	24.5%
Harrison Petty	0	0%	0.0%	7.9%
Jacob van Rooyen	0	0%	0.0%	17.6%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2025)	To Adv. % (2024)
Max Gawn	77	46	15	32.6%	27.9%
Aidan Johnson	25	5	1	20.0%
Harrison Petty	0	0	0		24.4%
Jacob van Rooyen	0	0	0		24.7%

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Lachlan Keeffe	75	14	4
Callum M. Brown	27	12	3

29 Points from Turnover is not great for us . What was our average last season? 44 points against from turnover is also not great. But i was surprised by their low back half scoring. That is quite an achievement.

I thought A J played a terrific game.

l was there.

He played in the back line and the forward line and In the ruck.
 

AND kicked a goal - in his first game.

 

15 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

Maybe he should use the "closing speed" a bit sooner? Just sayin

 

Nup. When they know you are coming at speed it's easy to change angles and walk around them. If you can get them by surprise it's a talent

7 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

The piece of play where Windsor gathers and then dodges 2 GWS players and hits up Jefferson lace out was worth the price of admission. He wasn't prolific but boy oh boy was he good. If Max had dished off to him like he should have we may well have won today. The other gold was Xavier Lindsay, not only is he clean, calm and skilled he doesn't mind backing into a pack. Those 2 alone will see us improve this year. I had a great day with my kids. My Fifteen year old daughter who's a Demon but never been a massive fan said, and I quote "I get it now, let's go every week" Bugger for losing but my confidence in what lies ahead hasn't diminished because of a 3 point loss to the GF favourite.

Windsor will be a very good player.... almost Cadman like in my view but probably not as much inside. We have to keep off half back as he'll allow us much better run and scoring from turnover. Lindsay too. Not going to happen overnight, but in the next few seasons Lindsay and Windsor will be our main ball movement players. 

Just watched the last 2 minutes. Didn't actually realise how quickly they got it down the other end. They actually had another free player down there to.

That last centre bounce was a mess. Trac put himself to chf & yes we had gawn & Oliver in there but Greene put himself in there. There captain wanted to do the job for his team & he got the clearance.

Something that cost us was not having someone on the goal line.  They got 3-4 scappy goal as a result - at least 2 from Cogniglio could have been stopped had we had someone behind the pack.

Happy with the first up for the new players.  Not happy with Goodwin on making Lindsay the sub as I choose him over Xavier for my dream team rookie spot! :(    I assume in the wet he went with speed early in the game? 

GWS are expected to be top4, coming off a good win over the pies, so they were one game ahead of us in game time, which can make a difference especially for young players.  team pressure was good over the 4 quarters.

Need work on patterns in the forward line as Jeffo was spoiled a couple of times when in the best position by other dee's going up when they should not have.  Also, gee he looks bloody young in the face.  

Highlight of the day was Windsor, goal on the run and breaking 2 tackles

Looking forward to a better year than last. 

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Something that cost us was not having someone on the goal line.  They got 3-4 scappy goal as a result - at least 2 from Cogniglio could have been stopped had we had someone behind the pack.

The turn over goal in the 2nd quarter from Petty kicking across the 50 arc was criminal.

 

I’m only up to page 7 after attending today’s game. I’m surprised that no one has mentioned, in detail, how the elements affected the second half. We kicked 5 goals in the third assisted by a strong breeze. They kicked 2 to the Punt Rd end in that quarter. I knew we would have to play well in the final Qtr to defend our 3/4 time lead of 11 points. We did play well, but not quite well enough. They kicked 3;4 to our 1;2 in the last. The kicks that Mac and Johnno had in the last were extremely difficult into that swirling wind. Max’s went straight as an arrow but didn’t quite have the legs! We were gallant! We had the best stats sheet. I agree with all here who have noted that our final 45 seconds was a bust. The rest of the game we were very competitive in all aspects of the game.

39 minutes ago, Wrecker45 said:

I love the way Jeffo jogs at the player with the ball then when they think he's not coming for them he puts on the burners and has really quick closing speed

Yep, the challenge is knowing when to do that and when you have to take away the option to begin with.

But I liked the look of his speed. There’s an afl player in there, just got to keep developing it 

12 minutes ago, GS_1905 said:

29 Points from Turnover is not great for us . What was our average last season? 44 points against from turnover is also not great. But i was surprised by their low back half scoring. That is quite an achievement.

We averaged 40.8 points from turnover last season, and we conceded an average of 48.7 points.

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

The McAdam injury is so underrated because he was the path to playing just 2 talls. But I thought Jeffo’s defensive pressure was really solid for a young tall and has come along way. I think we’ll persist with him and 2 others but I think Turner will come back for AJ sooner than later. Contest wise I thought Jeffo exceeded expectations. The big challenge for him (and all our forwards) is to draw the footy in good spots by upping his work rate to lead and present. 

I really liked AJ’s game until the last quarter ruck spell where he was caught doing a long stint when he was knackered. My takeaway is he should be good depth this year but could be more than this with a full preseason. 

We were too top heavy up forward especially on a day not suited for high marking.  We should have had another late withdrawal and given Langford a full game (take your pick on a sub) 

If AJ stays in as the 2nd ruck I can't see a spot for Jefferson.  Nor did I think that Jefferson was particularly hard at the contest or chased with intent

Kicked a couple of handy goals but apart from that, he did very little

And JVR is not a proven KPF (yet) so to be effectively playing 3 rookie talls up forward is at least 1 too many.  Poor selections

We probably need to recruit in a KPF from elsewhere if we are looking for B+ or A grade

In the meantime, one of AJ or Jeffo plays but not both.  We could get away with it against teams like North but against the Pies, Lions, Sydney or GWS and the like? 

I don't think so

It's JVR & AJ for mine with Fritsch as the 3rd tall ... Turner or Jeffo as replacements if AJ doesn't fire (JVR can ruck for 5 minutes per quarter)

Petracca & Kozzy up forward so we end up medium/tall.  Melksham? 

Just now, Macca said:

Kicked a couple of handy goals but apart from that, he did very little

7 minutes ago, Macca said:

We were too top heavy up forward especially on a day not suited for high marking.  We should have had another late withdrawal and given Langford a full game (take your pick on a sub) 

If AJ stays in as the 2nd ruck I can't see a spot for Jefferson.  Nor did I think that Jefferson was particularly hard at the contest or chased with intent

Kicked a couple of handy goals but apart from that, he did very little

And JVR is not a proven KPF (yet) so to be effectively playing 3 rookie talls up forward is at least 1 too many.  Poor selections

We probably need to recruit in a KPF from elsewhere if we are looking for B+ or A grade

In the meantime, one of AJ or Jeffo plays but not both.  We could get away with it against teams like North but against the Pies, Lions, Sydney or GWS and the like? 

I don't think so

It's JVR & AJ for mine with Fritsch as the 3rd tall ... Turner or Jeffo as replacements if AJ doesn't fire (JVR can ruck for 5 minutes per quarter)

Petracca & Kozzy up forward so we end up medium/tall.  Melksham? 

Jefferson is our future, with no disrespect to AJ, we didn’t defend well enough in the last qtr to a more polished team, positives yes though frustrated we lost 

49 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

We did not loose the game because of fitness, one less game that GW$, the kids, the umpires, yadda, yadda, yadda . . .

We lost because:

• there was ZERO on-field leadership during the last 100 seconds of the game, and
• the off-field catastrophy of 2024 most definitely, probably, cost us Houston.

So utterly *&%#ing Melbourne.

take a very big chill pill. 5 newbies against a premiership favourite. What were we expecting?. To win that would be one for the ages. It wasnt to be, but it took GWS till the last minute to steal it back. Anyone looking negatively does not understand the our side today. 

54 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

At what point in the play from the kick out did the opportunity arise for anyone to spoil let alone punch it over the fence. 
 

At least watch the vision before commenting 

I watched the game on my phone as I was attending a function, yes it was a miss kick. 

We made 2 glaring defensive mistakes from the miss kick they are as follows and should be dissected and not allowed to happen again. 

Sparrow was 2-3 meters away from his opponent if he was touching distance he's getting a fist in towards the boundary side to disrupt clean possession to GWS.

Ball falls in the lap of Kelly who gathers clean and quick fires a handball into Jones who handballs a hail mary into the center circle.

Henderson needed to go through Callahan to disrupt forward momentum doesn't (Welcome to league footy young lad) who then fires a handball to Ward who hits O'Keeffe (who won't kick a goal for the rest of his Career).

Yes I watched the whole [censored] n thing

But yes it was a miss kick.

@Pennant St Dee

The ease that GWS moved the ball out of our forward line was at times, startling.  On a drier day, they might have really cleaned us up (there again, we might have clunked a few more marks on a dry day ... with our oversized forward line) 

And GWS are not the only team that can move the ball quickly on the counter-attack.  

Whilst we're trying to lock the ball in our forward line by employing the press, the good teams only need one accurate, quick disposal and they are off to the races

It's not a new thing either

We need to back ourselves into using the corridor more with faster ball movement so as we can advance the ball into a more open forward line

Our style is gritty and we are hard at the contest.  Our strength is winning contested ball but we seem to have to work too hard in order to score

By contrast (today at least) GWS' method of scoring was highly efficient.  Helps that they are highly skilled but that's what we have to beat

Will AJ get looked at for the tackle on Brown?

Should JVR have played? Looked no-where near it today. 

Don’t have time to read all this - kid about to take phone for flight home. 

We are good, we are trying to be more exciting - Petracca immense and the new boys good especially X Lindsay ( mea culpa) 

Fritsch horrible.

But looking forward to the year!

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

The ease that GWS moved the ball out of our forward line was at times, startling.  On a drier day, they might have really cleaned us up (there again, we might have clunked a few more marks on a dry day ... with our oversized forward line) 

And GWS are not the only team that can move the ball quickly on the counter-attack.  

Whilst we're trying to lock the ball in our forward line by employing the press, the good teams only need one accurate, quick disposal and they are off to the races

It's not a new thing either

We need to back ourselves into using the corridor more with faster ball movement so as we can advance the ball into a more open forward line

Our style is gritty and we are hard at the contest.  Our strength is winning contested ball but we seem to have to work too hard in order to score

By contrast (today at least) GWS' method of scoring was highly efficient.  Helps that they are highly skilled but that's what we have to beat

My only reservation is the level of foot skills among the team.

A few times we were 'on', but a miskick (usually overkicking) across the ground led to costly turnovers.

6 minutes ago, Demonsone said:

Jefferson is our future, with no disrespect to AJ, we didn’t defend well enough in the last qtr to a more polished team, positives yes though frustrated we lost 

Well, I'm not convinced Jeffo is our future and I'm not convinced that AJ is either.  But AJ can ruck

JVR a future topline Key forward?  That's not a given either

But whilst our list is what it is, I'm happy to give plenty of opportunities to Jeffo, AJ & Turner.  Maybe one of them will turn out to be very good (or better) 

I'm not sacking anyone here.  You can't do that in our sport.  Unless they allow clubs to trade in season (which should be a thing)