The Dan Houston Thread

[Jibroni 4,907]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

We aren’t getting value for Oliver but if we pay a bit of the contract I still think a team takes the risk for an early 2nd. Geelong, Adelaide they aren’t going to get an A grade midfielder in his prime age any other way.

Or perhaps with some conditioning we back him in to be great again in 2025; as opposed to just giving him away?

[I'va Worn Smith 949]

2 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

Or perhaps with some conditioning we back him in to be great again in 2025; as opposed to just giving him away?

100% agree.  Let's not waste any draft picks we may get, in what is supposed to be a very deep draft this year, for the sake of trading to get one player, who may not be the answer anyway.  Bolster our running mid stocks first, IMO.

[Sydee 4,174]

I know we have had a bad run with injuries and unforeseen retirements etc but if you have watched much of Casey this season you would have to conclude that we have quite a few players on our list that are not likely to make it. There are plenty of holes to fill so that we have reasonable depth on our list particularly in certain positions (ruck, midfield and key forward)

This team feels like it needs an injection of some talented fresh faces - I’d like to see us trade into this draft so that we add as many quality youngsters as possible (Windsor is an example of the impact quality young players can have) 

[Gawndy the Great 9,008]

2 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Of course he’s not Cameron but the point is the 3 first rounds Geelong gave up turned out to be next to nothing when they got 2 early 2nds back.

If we gave up 2 late firsts and got at least 1 early second back it would be a similar kind of result where the price isn’t really the price. 

We aren’t getting value for Oliver but if we pay a bit of the contract I still think a team takes the risk for an early 2nd. Geelong, Adelaide they aren’t going to get an A grade midfielder in his prime age any other way.

Net result, Oliver out, Houston in and we’ve shuffled back in the draft from late firsts to early seconds. Doesn’t read well on paper but could be really good for the team. 

But we’ll see if Port are willing to accept that deal and it relies upon us bouncing back next year and the year after. So it’s still less likely than likely. 

That is a ridiculous take. Oliver may never get back to his best - I will concede that - but selling now is akın to shorting Apple stock right before they released the 1st gen iPhone.  You never sell low and right now Oliver cannot get much worse. Even if he ‘misbehaved’ it will likely nullify his contract and he’d be off our books - that to me is worst case. 
 

If he somehow becomes a top 20 ranked player again next year AND we had to do a trade, then I think we at least get 1st round pick with no salary concessions. At least with a solid pre season, we’d know where he is truly at.

As for Houston, he’s the type of player you’d take on your way up the mountain not on the way down. I’m convinced we are on the way down -  not in free fall but mini rebuild territory. Need to restock our mids with better ball users and more athletic types - Butters / Serong are the types we are in need of.  
 

Decisions like giving up 2 first rounders for Houston now may get us back in finals but it will be short lived and the implications will be a longer and deeper rebuild right when Tassie comes in.

 

[BW511 2,564]

I’m firmly in the camp that even two later first rounders is too much, given there seems to be plenty of talent.

Of course we would love to land the next Trac or peak Clarry but I’d argue we only need to improve on Viney/Sparrow/ANB to significantly improve our mix. 

Interestingly, I saw a BigFooty draft contributor mention in his thread that he thought the draft was very even because he doesn’t think any/many become match winners at AFL level from this crop - noting i’m paraphrasing. Again, take it with a grain of salt.

Perhaps there’s plenty of good honest players but a known elite quantity eclipses good honest toilers. 
 

If the club thinks we are an elite HBF away from being back in contention, then no amount of draft picks will help us.

 

Edited August 4 by BW511

[layzie 32,686]

3 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

That is a ridiculous take. Oliver may never get back to his best - I will concede that - but selling now is akın to shorting Apple stock right before they released the 1st gen iPhone.  You never sell low and right now Oliver cannot get much worse. Even if he ‘misbehaved’ it will likely nullify his contract and he’d be off our books - that to me is worst case. 
 

If he somehow becomes a top 20 ranked player again next year AND we had to do a trade, then I think we at least get 1st round pick with no salary concessions. At least with a solid pre season, we’d know where he is truly at.

As for Houston, he’s the type of player you’d take on your way up the mountain not on the way down. I’m convinced we are on the way down -  not in free fall but mini rebuild territory. Need to restock our mids with better ball users and more athletic types - Butters / Serong are the types we are in need of.  
 

Decisions like giving up 2 first rounders for Houston now may get us back in finals but it will be short lived and the implications will be a longer and deeper rebuild right when Tassie comes in.

 

Agree, absolutely idiotic take.

[spirit of norm smith 15,035]

@BW511 Plenty of excellent mids in this draft.  Houston would be a heavy price to pay

[No10 434]

This is nonsensical. Houston is not Lever; an incredibly promising young intercept defender.

Houston is a good player with excellent development, now in his playing prime. Put the development into Howes and at 27 he’s every chance to be equal or better.

Oliver is a supreme talent with a competitive edge that will drive him back to his best. Connecting him to this trade is insanity.

If we trade for Houston, on his own merit, a high first round or low second. Before anything, he needs to want to come, then a trade gets done. We don’t raid a club/player for Dan Houston.

[John Demonic 5,481]

5 hours ago, No10 said:

This is nonsensical. Houston is not Lever; an incredibly promising young intercept defender.

Houston is a good player with excellent development, now in his playing prime. Put the development into Howes and at 27 he’s every chance to be equal or better.

Oliver is a supreme talent with a competitive edge that will drive him back to his best. Connecting him to this trade is insanity.

If we trade for Houston, on his own merit, a high first round or low second. Before anything, he needs to want to come, then a trade gets done. We don’t raid a club/player for Dan Houston.

Nope. Dan Houston is currently the 4th ranked player in the entire comp by Champion Data and probably about to get a 2nd AA gong in a row. He's an absolute gun that will make us a far better team for the next 3 or 4 seasons while our aging superstars push for a 2nd flag. Blake Howes might become a serviceable defender that holds down a position in defence, but he's not going to be leading the competition in anything.

Port will demand a high price because he's contracted for 3 years and can tell us to gagf. I suspect we're just going to have to do the deal of two firsts while trying to get Ports pick 14-18 in return somehow . Or as DeeSpencer said, Split Pick 7 into two mid teens picks and give them one AND next years first and get a 2nd or whatever back. They have the upper hand unfortunately. 

If the club have identified him in filling a hole and helping other players also play in their ideal position, and he wants to come to us, then thats half the battle over. We will get it done with no fuss

Edited August 4 by John Demonic

[No10 434]

1 hour ago, John Demonic said:

Nope. Dan Houston is currently the 4th ranked player in the entire comp by Champion Data and probably about to get a 2nd AA gong in a row. He's an absolute gun that will make us a far better team for the next 3 or 4 seasons while our aging superstars push for a 2nd flag. Blake Howes might become a serviceable defender that holds down a position in defence, but he's not going to be leading the competition in anything.

Port will demand a high price because he's contracted for 3 years and can tell us to gagf. I suspect we're just going to have to do the deal of two firsts while trying to get Ports pick 14-18 in return somehow . Or as DeeSpencer said, Split Pick 7 into two mid teens picks and give them one AND next years first and get a 2nd or whatever back. They have the upper hand unfortunately. 

If the club have identified him in filling a hole and helping other players also play in their ideal position, and he wants to come to us, then thats half the battle over. We will get it done with no fuss

4th best in the AFL??!

I would’ve thought maybe 4th best at Port?  Butters, Rozze, Horne-Francis… I’d take Georgiades before Houston.

Maybe I don’t watch enough Port games.

My comparison to Howes is just that Houston seems unremarkable to me, but has developed so well that makes him elite. He doesn’t seem like Trac, or Kossie, in his level of gifts.

I can’t imagine this being worth it at two firsts. But I’m sure there’s more than I see if everyone is behind it, club and all.

[dazzledavey36 52,641]

1 hour ago, John Demonic said:

Nope. Dan Houston is currently the 4th ranked player in the entire comp by Champion Data and probably about to get a 2nd AA gong in a row. He's an absolute gun that will make us a far better team for the next 3 or 4 seasons while our aging superstars push for a 2nd flag. Blake Howes might become a serviceable defender that holds down a position in defence, but he's not going to be leading the competition in anything.

Port will demand a high price because he's contracted for 3 years and can tell us to gagf. I suspect we're just going to have to do the deal of two firsts while trying to get Ports pick 14-18 in return somehow . Or as DeeSpencer said, Split Pick 7 into two mid teens picks and give them one AND next years first and get a 2nd or whatever back. They have the upper hand unfortunately. 

If the club have identified him in filling a hole and helping other players also play in their ideal position, and he wants to come to us, then thats half the battle over. We will get it done with no fuss

I think that speaks more on champion data then it does with Houston...

For instance, Champion data graded us as having the number one list in the entire competition at the start of 2019.

I'm still very hesitant with splitting put pick6/7 for a a couple of pick in the teens.

With Tasmania coming into the competition in a few years, we'll need to make sure we're continue to stock pile on talent and rebuild along the way.

With Jason Taylor, you've got a potential 10-12 year player with our earlier pick.

[middleagedemon 324]

1 hour ago, John Demonic said:

Nope. Dan Houston is currently the 4th ranked player in the entire comp by Champion Data and probably about to get a 2nd AA gong in a row. He's an absolute gun that will make us a far better team for the next 3 or 4 seasons while our aging superstars push for a 2nd flag. Blake Howes might become a serviceable defender that holds down a position in defence, but he's not going to be leading the competition in anything.

Port will demand a high price because he's contracted for 3 years and can tell us to gagf. I suspect we're just going to have to do the deal of two firsts while trying to get Ports pick 14-18 in return somehow . Or as DeeSpencer said, Split Pick 7 into two mid teens picks and give them one AND next years first and get a 2nd or whatever back. They have the upper hand unfortunately. 

If the club have identified him in filling a hole and helping other players also play in their ideal position, and he wants to come to us, then thats half the battle over. We will get it done with no fuss. 

Houston is not worth two first round picks under any circumstances and there's no world I can see us giving two up unless we're planning on completely compromising our ability to regenerate our list before draft picks are taken by Tassie. 

It would be utter lunacy. 

Also, that champion data stat is pointless. We all know hes not the fourth best player in the comp. In fact, there are a handful of half backs I'd take ahead of him. 

 

[Theo 272]

1 hour ago, middleagedemon said:

Houston is not worth two first round picks under any circumstances and there's no world I can see us giving two up unless we're planning on completely compromising our ability to regenerate our list before draft picks are taken by Tassie. 

It would be utter lunacy. 

Also, that champion data stat is pointless. We all know hes not the fourth best player in the comp. In fact, there are a handful of half backs I'd take ahead of him. 

 

 

I would not even give one first round pick for Houston considering he is 28 next year and you may only get 3 good years of football out of him. We are on the slide at the moment let's get some quality kids in from the draft.

[whatwhat say what 22,031]

we took two first round picks to the draft last year; i have no issues with trading out

houston is an absolute jet

we're in it to win it, regardless of our fall from the pointy end this season

he'll help replace the brayshaw role immediately

[von 1,493]

20 hours ago, Jeremy said:

100%. This is the way it feels like it’s going and it would be a disgrace 

Based on what? A bunch if people who know nothing and their speculation/dreams?

[von 1,493]

19 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

There’s 2 firsts and then there’s ‘2 firsts’.

If it’s picks in the mid to late teens and in return we get one or more 2nd or 3rd rounders then that could be a heist.

The cats gave 3 for Jezza Cameron and got pretty much the same picks back with 2nd rounders as valuable some of the firsts would’ve been.

There’s also a question of what else we do with the list. I’d have Oliver and Fritsch sold to the highest bidder assuming the reserve prices are met. 

And if that happens then it would almost be imperative that we bring in some experience and quality in the Houston age range.

Our first rounder this year should be off the table (aside from splitting it back a few picks). Anything else should be available.

Oliver and Fritsch? Our best mid and best forward?

[von 1,493]

Those wanting to trade Clarry. Imagine this is his absolute worst. He is basically the entire midfield and he is under done. He’s still getting tagged and having mid 20s disposals and impacting the game having not played much last year and having no pre season. There’s no way he’s not better next year than this year. He is still a top 5 mid in the league when fit. Just watch.

[KingDingAling 3,737]

I wouldn’t be trading 6/7 for a guy who will be 28 next year. We have improvement in Windsor and McVee, who next year, won’t be far off Houston’s level. 

[DeeSpencer 24,669]

1 hour ago, von said:

Oliver and Fritsch? Our best mid and best forward?

I’m not going to speculate on Oliver but the footy he’s currently serving up is horrendous.

Petracca, Pickett and ANB are better overall forwards than Fritsch. JVR should be soon. Heck I wouldn’t be surprised if Chandler finishes higher in the B+F.

We are playing with 17 on the field when one guy constantly tries to get out the back, never chases, tackles with no intent or technique so consistently gives away free kicks and can’t play in any other role. 

[Dee Boys 424]

19 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Of course he’s not Cameron but the point is the 3 first rounds Geelong gave up turned out to be next to nothing when they got 2 early 2nds back.

If we gave up 2 late firsts and got at least 1 early second back it would be a similar kind of result where the price isn’t really the price. 

We aren’t getting value for Oliver but if we pay a bit of the contract I still think a team takes the risk for an early 2nd. Geelong, Adelaide they aren’t going to get an A grade midfielder in his prime age any other way.

Net result, Oliver out, Houston in and we’ve shuffled back in the draft from late firsts to early seconds. Doesn’t read well on paper but could be really good for the team. 

But we’ll see if Port are willing to accept that deal and it relies upon us bouncing back next year and the year after. So it’s still less likely than likely. 

Well you're right about one thing - that certainly doesn't read well on paper. It reads absolutely disastrously on paper.

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,283]

32 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I’m not going to speculate on Oliver but the footy he’s currently serving up is horrendous.

Petracca, Pickett and ANB are better overall forwards than Fritsch. JVR should be soon. Heck I wouldn’t be surprised if Chandler finishes higher in the B+F.

We are playing with 17 on the field when one guy constantly tries to get out the back, never chases, tackles with no intent or technique so consistently gives away free kicks and can’t play in any other role. 

Fritsch is a prolific goal scorer, but I agree he needs to up his pressure game for next year.

The best sides have 3-4 high pressure players in their forward line and with ANB and Kozzy going through the middle more, we really only have Chandler.

[von 1,493]

57 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I’m not going to speculate on Oliver but the footy he’s currently serving up is horrendous.

Petracca, Pickett and ANB are better overall forwards than Fritsch. JVR should be soon. Heck I wouldn’t be surprised if Chandler finishes higher in the B+F.

We are playing with 17 on the field when one guy constantly tries to get out the back, never chases, tackles with no intent or technique so consistently gives away free kicks and can’t play in any other role. 

We’re losing more games than we have if he isn’t kicking all the goals he kicks. When the rest of the ground functions correctly Fritsch is perfectly fine. What does over all forwards mean? They dont kick as many goals, two of them are closer to mids than goal kicking forwards and one is a small forward while Fritsch is a mid forward and compares favourably to the other key forwards of the comp in goal kicking over the last five years.

[adonski 10,774]

Imagine if Tim Lamb put forward the suggestion to trade Fritta, he'd be walked to his car

[von 1,493]

2 minutes ago, adonski said:

Imagine if Tim Lamb put forward the suggestion to trade Fritta, he'd be walked to his car

Some on here would end up having a rebuild and a new coaching panel every year if they had their way and then they would be left wondering what went wrong.

[The Taciturn Demon 340]

6 hours ago, John Demonic said:

Nope. Dan Houston is currently the 4th ranked player in the entire comp by Champion Data and probably about to get a 2nd AA gong in a row. He's an absolute gun that will make us a far better team for the next 3 or 4 seasons while our aging superstars push for a 2nd flag. Blake Howes might become a serviceable defender that holds down a position in defence, but he's not going to be leading the competition in anything.

Port will demand a high price because he's contracted for 3 years and can tell us to gagf. I suspect we're just going to have to do the deal of two firsts while trying to get Ports pick 14-18 in return somehow . Or as DeeSpencer said, Split Pick 7 into two mid teens picks and give them one AND next years first and get a 2nd or whatever back. They have the upper hand unfortunately. 

If the club have identified him in filling a hole and helping other players also play in their ideal position, and he wants to come to us, then thats half the battle over. We will get it done with no fuss

You've argued for him really well, but I think the club is edging into the delusional if they think one (or even two) very  good 28 year olds can help us return to the top 2 or 4. 

Yes, a lot has gone wrong this year. No, we no longer have an excellent list capable of winning the 15 to 19 games you need to guarantee a double chance, let alone win finals.

We need to plug lots of holes, not one or two.