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The Premiership Window Closing?


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5 hours ago, Roost it far said:

No one rates us. They saw are underbelly last year and it’s up to us to come out breathing fire. I’m not overly confident but if we get it on, stay fit and say no to drugs who knows. I do know I’d love to prove some [censored] wrong.

It's funny because I think Port once again showed their weak underbelly more than us.

We lost finals by 7 and 2, both where really we should've won except for poor kicking and skill execution.

Port lost finals by 48 and 23 (at home v GWS). That is much worse, plus also if we take into account their 71 point thrashing from the Dogs in the 2021 prelim it tells a tale.

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10 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

It's funny because I think Port once again showed their weak underbelly more than us.

We lost finals by 7 and 2, both where really we should've won except for poor kicking and skill execution.

Port lost finals by 48 and 23 (at home v GWS). That is much worse, plus also if we take into account their 71 point thrashing from the Dogs in the 2021 prelim it tells a tale.

And that's why the majority of the Port fan base are in disbelief that Hinkley is still in charge.

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Something in this thread reminded me of the 'A pair of unlikely heroes embrace' Bruce & Green moment in the 2000 final vs Carlton

I can't help but notice the potential similarity with Windsor and Tholstrup, right down to sizes and roles.

The main differences being we haven't yet had the wave of retirements, that our depth is already much stronger than we had going into 2000, and Woewodin is only in his second season instead of 4th.

Our current team is so much better than the 2000 squad. On the one hand a testament to what youthful enthusiasm, momentum and the inspirational power of Neale Daniher can do, and on the other hand a testament to how much remains possible with out current group and the surprisingly large wave of youngsters already pushing into our 22.

I'm starting to look forward to the season and it isn't even Tet yet.

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9 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Jeez Stevie J doesn’t even mention us in the top 13, that should stir the hornets nest up, a bit of ammo for the coaches. We have the backs and midfield pretty well covered with sufficient depth to cover for some injuries, however need Clayton back at some stage. What we do need is a bit of luck with our forwards both Fritta and Petty are critical to our structure, JVR will keep getting better. Kozzie, ANB and Spargs have been strengthened by Jack Billing’s and Shane McAdam plus we have Sestan, Fullarton, Jefferson and Verrall building at Casey. When you throw in Woewodin, Laurie, Disco, Howes, Adams, Farris-White the Kolt, the Duke and young Brownie plus Jake Melksham come finals I am thinking top 4 in ‘24. I am also expecting several of our youngsters to have breakout seasons this year and will more than cover for the players that we have lost. Go Dees.

Like Macca and 58er I am a bit bullish about our chances in 24 - 28 and also very keen to see what McQualter brings to the table.

Highly doubt the coaches will even bat a eye lid over this stuff.

Rarely are coaches owning social media platforms like Twitter, so they wouldn't even see this nor should they be caught up in comments like this.

No different to any other journo that has an opinion that has us missing top 4 or even finals.

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9 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Highly doubt the coaches will even bat a eye lid over this stuff.

Rarely are coaches owning social media platforms like Twitter, so they wouldn't even see this nor should they be caught up in comments like this.

No different to any other journo that has an opinion that has us missing top 4 or even finals.

I meant that figuratively Dazzle36.

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Bookies have us at 1.50 to make the 8 and 2.50 to miss the 8

3.00 Top 4

9.00 to win the flag

 

#GambleResponsibly

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 01/02/2024 at 09:22, durango said:

I have looked at the first 6 rounds and this will setup the whole season because if we get a good start then top 4 will become easier but if we start poorly then it will make it that much harder.

Starting the season poorly makes finishing in the top 4 more difficult?

Huge if true, durango.

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On 01/02/2024 at 09:22, durango said:

I have looked at the first 6 rounds and this will setup the whole season because if we get a good start then top 4 will become easier but if we start poorly then it will make it that much harder.

Yep

we need to go 4-2 or 3-3 at least. Less and we're playing catch up from around position 7-10

Last year we go off to a better start than I had hoped for so let's hope we can do 6-0

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20 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Who’d take 3-3 right now?

I would Roost it in a heartbeat Would be an ok result imv given the improvements of other teams and our challenges of kicking a winning score

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List and profile-wise, our window is about the widest open it has ever been, although there's a cliff coming in a few years from now, probably in the dreaded four-to-six, with hopefully (but problematically) little in the way of draft capital over that time. The majority of our key players are right in their peak 25-28 y/o age career bracket, with between 100 to 200 games under their belts and premiership experience:

Petracca
Oliver
Lever
Salem
Brayshaw
Langdon
Fritsch

Apologies to ANB. 

We only currently have three blokes above 30 (or soon to be) who might still be considered important cogs: Gawn, May and Viney. This is a very low number compared to recent flag winners outside of 2021. A quick calculation puts that figure at at least a third of the premiership teams for Collingwood, Geelong and Richmond from 2019 to 2023.

None of those players are easily replaceable and I love them all, but I think most of us appreciate that we can get on without a premiere ruck and Viney in the middle. Losing a back like May will disrupt our rock-solid defensive approach. 

In three to four years from now, should they stay (most are on long contracts), we'll have a very seasoned line-up of AFL superstars still competing. Then it gets interesting. At present we have just the following first round draft recruits on our list: Jefferson, Tholstrup and Windsor. They will build around other proven under-25 entities in: 

Pickett
JVR
Petty
Rivers
Sparrow
McVee
Bowey
Chandler

Is that latter crew, plus additions, enough to sustain us in keeping the window open beyond 2028? My summary, we are in the window for at least the next four years, but need a big midfield refresh to keep it open. The loss of Gawn and May will hurt but not be a big issue in the scheme of things. 

 

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I'd give us the points in the first three games - we were much better than Sydney in Sydney last year; dogs hold no fears for us and neither should Hawthorn. Port away in Rd 4 is 50/50, Adelaide again away in Adelaide on a 5 day break is probably 40/60 as is Brisbane at the G. I'd be happy with 4/2 but I'd take 3/3. Hopefully we don't win three then lose three. Not great for confidence/momentum and the rubbish that will get published in the H'sun.

But a Wednesday night, two Thursday night and a Saturday night game in the first 6 rounds is unreal for TV exposure (even if three of them are interstate and I can't go).

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On 11/02/2024 at 08:12, Roost it far said:

Who’d take 3-3 right now?

We don't have an easy start to the season but let's be simple about it - we are at least an even competitor against any team.

I might be feeling positive because I think each of the Swans, Bulldogs, Crows, and Hawks are overrated.

So the way I'm looking at it is "Knock off those 4 like we should, and win either one of the Port/Brisbane games, and we are absolutely rioting our way to the mid-season."

We're still the hunter.

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On 11/02/2024 at 19:21, Skuit said:

At present we have just the following first round draft recruits on our list: Jefferson, Tholstrup and Windsor. They will build around other proven under-25 entities in: 

Pickett
JVR
Petty
Rivers
Sparrow
McVee
Bowey
Chandler

I think it's a good well thought out post @Skuit but I'm not sure what point you're trying to make about "first round draft recruits"? Yes, we've got 3 from the past two years. How many do you expect to have?

In total, we have 7 first round draft picks under 23yo - Pickett, Laurie, Bowey, JVR, Jefferson, Windsor and Tholstrup. That's 7 from the last 5 drafts while we've been contending for the flag.  That's a pretty good harvest.

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19 hours ago, old55 said:

I think it's a good well thought out post @Skuit but I'm not sure what point you're trying to make about "first round draft recruits"? Yes, we've got 3 from the past two years. How many do you expect to have?

In total, we have 7 first round draft picks under 23yo - Pickett, Laurie, Bowey, JVR, Jefferson, Windsor and Tholstrup. That's 7 from the last 5 drafts while we've been contending for the flag.  That's a pretty good harvest.

Forgot Kynan Brown. 

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7 minutes ago, 58er said:

Forgot Kynan Brown. 

He wasn't a first round draftee, though let's hope he performs like one!

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19 hours ago, old55 said:

I think it's a good well thought out post @Skuit but I'm not sure what point you're trying to make about "first round draft recruits"? Yes, we've got 3 from the past two years. How many do you expect to have?

In total, we have 7 first round draft picks under 23yo - Pickett, Laurie, Bowey, JVR, Jefferson, Windsor and Tholstrup. That's 7 from the last 5 drafts while we've been contending for the flag.  That's a pretty good harvest.

We've done well getting so much talent in while still being competing for a flag. We do need some midfield bulls though. Midfields win premierships. Our premiership was mostly built off the back of Petracca and Oliver. We need to find our next gun inside mids, and they usually come in the first round. 

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39 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

We've done well getting so much talent in while still being competing for a flag. 

We need to find our next gun inside mids, and they usually come in the first round. 

Well this should start at the next draft,  I thought we had some picks already, plus the 18th of course.

But they will take time to develop Surely Sparrow and Rivers might get a run, but then they have to be replaced.

Its like dominos,  all dough and not a lot of meat.   Who the hell would want to be a Talent scout,  how the hell do you put all the pieces into one player.

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42 minutes ago, 640MD said:

Well this should start at the next draft,  I thought we had some picks already, plus the 18th of course.

But they will take time to develop Surely Sparrow and Rivers might get a run, but then they have to be replaced.

Its like dominos,  all dough and not a lot of meat.   Who the hell would want to be a Talent scout,  how the hell do you put all the pieces into one player.

Time for Sparrow to go to the next level I reckon.

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2 hours ago, 640MD said:

Well this should start at the next draft,  I thought we had some picks already, plus the 18th of course.

But they will take time to develop Surely Sparrow and Rivers might get a run, but then they have to be replaced.

Its like dominos,  all dough and not a lot of meat.   Who the hell would want to be a Talent scout,  how the hell do you put all the pieces into one player.

We need to find the next crop of superstar inside mids soon so they can learn from our best and have enough experience to take over when Trac, Clarry etc retire. 

Sparrow won't be that player. He's an important dog in the rotation, but he'll likely never become a superstar of the comp who breaks games open most weeks. 6th season coming up and hopefully he goes up a level. Same goes for Rivers, though he's already at a good level, has a higher ceiling, and could hit All Aus level.

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Cant believe its on again in a few weeks time. March 7 is crazy but thats AFL for you. How many of our players wont be ready; Petty for sure  Salem Oliver and Brown.Cant see tmac doing much in '24.

I think this year could be dominated by interstate sides as its been a long while since thats happened. One flag in 10 years or 2 in 17 years!

Lions GWS certainly.  Crows  Swans Port are wobbly but their home advantage will help. Suns ? Theyre going to make 8 sooner or later. Maybe current Suns list is that time.

No Vic side is a lock in for the 8 incl Pies. Definetely not top 4 anyway.

Dees will have to get off to a good start otherwise were in trouble. We've got a tough fixture in the first 6 or 7 weeks.

Suns fixture couldnt be easier if the AFL tried. I think they' ll make 8.

 

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