The Pick 1 Thread

[Rab D Nesbitt 7,247]

I'd keep Petty if only to spite Kane Cornes. 

[DeeSpencer 23,198]

1 hour ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I could see a 3 way trade with North & WCE happening.

Melb Give: pick 6, pick 11 and future first.

Melb Receive: Pick 3, pick 15 & future 2nd (WCE)

North Give: pick 3 & pick 15

North Receive: Pick 1

WCE Give: Pick 1 & future 2nd round

WCE Receive: Pick 6, pick 11 & future first (Melb)

Maybe North give their future second to Eagles also, but that seems a pretty fair deal to me.

I reckon the Eagles can squeeze North out of another first round pick, Reid really is that valuable.

But I’ve said for a while now I think:

1. North: Reid
3. Dees: Duursma (or McKercher)
6. Eagles: Curtin 

Makes the most sense for all 3 clubs.

The concern will be the Hawks or Dogs getting in the way, the same framework of a deal makes sense for the Hawks moving to 3 and the Eagles taking Curtin at 4. 

[old55 21,361]

2 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

Reported in the Age over the weekend @old55:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/hawk-brockman-flying-west-to-the-eagles-20231014-p5ec87.html

Thanks Chaser.

Hawthorn's 4 + F1st is closest to the pin currently and hard to beat.  The F1st will be a top 10 pick, Hawthorn won't play finals next year. WC could even on trade it for more early picks this year. 

Our 6 + 11 + F1st doesn't top it and neither does 2 or 3 plus 17 from North IMO.

[Demon Dynasty 15,591]

52 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I was always suspicious on it. Apart from the grass is greener effect that happens every year the so called ‘super’ draft was a lot of mid sized or super skinny talls and light on for bonafide mids.

Caddy hasn’t fully come on. Archie Reid not at all. Moir fallen in a heap. Mitch Edwards meh. Will Lorenz unremarkable.

 

Reckon Caddy will be fine.

Moir should also make it and would be a great non risk with a low pick

[Garbo 1,332]

1 hour ago, bandicoot said:

Are you comparing pick 4, and hawthorns FF to 6,11, and dees FF? 
dees are giving an extra top 20 pick. 

2x pick 4 is better than 6 11 and 10-18 imo 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Garbo

[DeeSpencer 23,198]

2 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Reckon Caddy will be fine.

Moir should also make it and would be a great non risk with a low pick

I reckon some teams will have Caddy in the elite crop, some teams wouldn’t even have him in the second tier. With the likelihood a team in the second tier (8-14) takes him on upside, which could even be us. Either way he’s not really contributing to the ‘super draft’

[Demonland 65,639]

 

[ChaserJ 3,964]

1 hour ago, BangBnagBang said:

 

What's your sight on next years crop? @ChaserJ  If Curtain is there at Melbourne's pick and WCE offered up there F1 would Melbourne do the deal or take Curtain???

Will be more midfield talent next year, but again some of the best are tied to clubs as f/s. 

There isn’t the clear no.1 prospect that we have with Reid, maybe not as good at the top end, but more even.

Historically we prefer to get the talent in, so would think we’d take Sanders/Curtin now. Only thought would be whether we have a trade target on the hook and we’d like the asset, but would go against our previous behaviour (e.g. get the asset in, deal with next year when it comes as too much can change).

[bandicoot 1,395]

58 minutes ago, old55 said:

Thanks Chaser.

Hawthorn's 4 + F1st is closest to the pin currently and hard to beat.  The F1st will be a top 10 pick, Hawthorn won't play finals next year. WC could even on trade it for more early picks this year. 

Our 6 + 11 + F1st doesn't top it and neither does 2 or 3 plus 17 from North IMO.

4th and and undetermined future 1st (could easily be 12) from hawks is in no way better than a guaranteed 6,11 and dees future first. 
 

[old55 21,361]

40 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

4th and and undetermined future 1st (could easily be 12) from hawks is in no way better than a guaranteed 6,11 and dees future first. 
 

OK, I'll trade you 6, 11 and MFC F1st for 4 and Hawthorn's F1st. Bookmark it.

Edited October 16, 2023 by old55

[KingDingAling 3,613]

31 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

4th and and undetermined future 1st (could easily be 12) from hawks is in no way better than a guaranteed 6,11 and dees future first. 
 

Yeah I think clubs would be cautious doing a FF1 pick with Hawthorn. They are the most well drilled side in the competition. West Coast need picks this draft. 6 and 11 would be ideal for them. But I’m not sure 6, 11, and our FF1 2024 would be enough.

[Demon Dynasty 15,591]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

 

Another DL fan it seems.

Some astute draft watcher already made this point here.

[Garbo 1,332]

1 hour ago, KingDingAling said:

Yeah I think clubs would be cautious doing a FF1 pick with Hawthorn. They are the most well drilled side in the competition. West Coast need picks this draft. 6 and 11 would be ideal for them. But I’m not sure 6, 11, and our FF1 2024 would be enough.

Hawks still a few years off, this year is these lowest finish ever, I think ppl are under estimating how long there build will take, if they play finals inside next 3 years I’ll be surprised 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Garbo

[Stiff Arm 4,412]

3 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Another DL fan it seems.

Some astute draft watcher already made this point here.

@Mach5 strikes again!

[Ted Lasso 16,865]

5 hours ago, bandicoot said:

4th and and undetermined future 1st (could easily be 12) from hawks is in no way better than a guaranteed 6,11 and dees future first. 
 

Yes it is, we would trade our future first in a heart beat to upgrade pick 6 to pick 4. our future first is likely to be between 16-18 and after all the academy picks will probably blow out to early 20's 

the Hawks deal would be extremely compelling because if North don't want Curtin, the Eagles are almost guaranteed to get him.

 

[bandicoot 1,395]

32 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

Yes it is, we would trade our future first in a heart beat to upgrade pick 6 to pick 4. our future first is likely to be between 16-18 and after all the academy picks will probably blow out to early 20's 

the Hawks deal would be extremely compelling because if North don't want Curtin, the Eagles are almost guaranteed to get him.

 

Thankfully you have no involvement with our recruiting.. 

[Demon Dynasty 15,591]

6 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

I reckon some teams will have Caddy in the elite crop, some teams wouldn’t even have him in the second tier. With the likelihood a team in the second tier (8-14) takes him on upside, which could even be us. Either way he’s not really contributing to the ‘super draft’

Always hard to say how some draftees will cope with the step up.

Outside of Reid, who looks to be pretty good to go, i really do like the looks of Sanders and/or Caddy.

Sanders filling our needs a little more in terms of being a classy (somewhat  outside biased) mid who can also hit the scoreboard and kicks are relatively good coming inside 50 as well.

Caddy will be a ripper though as well imho.

[samcantstandya 934]

9 hours ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I could see a 3 way trade with North & WCE happening.

Melb Give: pick 6, pick 11 and future first.

Melb Receive: Pick 3, pick 15 & future 2nd (WCE)

North Give: pick 3 & pick 15

North Receive: Pick 1

WCE Give: Pick 1 & future 2nd round

WCE Receive: Pick 6, pick 11 & future first (Melb)

Maybe North give their future second to Eagles also, but that seems a pretty fair deal to me.

Why would we do that?

[1964nowMORE 449]

I heard from a coach of a 18u Coates League team that Reid was miles ahead of everyone else this time last year, but felt he not developed as much due to not playing AFL this year. Others catching him.

he thinks he’s an absolute gun in the Oliver, Selwood, Bont, Trac level of gun.

love to get him.

[The Jackson FIX 2,293]

9 hours ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

I'd keep Petty if only to spite Kane Cornes. 

throw Petty an 8 year contract to really bait him 

[H_T 2,941]

9 hours ago, old55 said:

Thanks Chaser.

Hawthorn's 4 + F1st is closest to the pin currently and hard to beat.  The F1st will be a top 10 pick, Hawthorn won't play finals next year. WC could even on trade it for more early picks this year. 

Our 6 + 11 + F1st doesn't top it and neither does 2 or 3 plus 17 from North IMO.

I’d consider North to keep making offers, so I’m thinking we could broker deals with west coast with teams that would want to split pick(s) or possibly with a view to next years draft (Giants?). 
Example:-

Hawks have 4,33,44,54,63
Dees have 6,11,42
Eagles have 1,23,37,58.
GWS have 7,16,43,59,77,79

• Eagles receive 4,7,16
• Hawks receive 6,11
• GWS receive F1 (Dees), F1 (Hawks),33
• Dees receive 1

[Rab D Nesbitt 7,247]

6 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

throw Petty an 8 year contract to really bait him 

His head would explode. I like it. 

[The Jackson FIX 2,293]

3 hours ago, Dwight Schrute said:

Yes it is, we would trade our future first in a heart beat to upgrade pick 6 to pick 4.

Nobody knows if this is right or wrong. If Taylor has a player he wants that won’t make it to 6 but would likely be there at 4 then he might decide to trade up but Melbourne have been pretty tight lipped on who we want (aside from obvious attempts to get closer to Reid at #1).

We’re not trading up and shedding a future 1st without a specific player in mind.

[Ethan Tremblay 28,436]

Bear with me.. 

 

We give: 6, 11, FF, Petty to Adelaide. 
Adelaide give us: McAdam. 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Ethan Tremblay

[Stiff Arm 4,412]

3 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Bear with me.. 

 

We give: 6, 11, FF, Petty to Adelaide. 
Adelaide give us: McAdam. 

Heck, I'd even throw in the jousting sticks as a sweetener