PREGAME: QF vs Collingwood

[Deemania since 56 6,141]

4 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

I hope he plays. He will last about 3 minutes. 

That is an upside. Hope he is picked if he's still suspect...

[Deemania since 56 6,141]

1 hour ago, fr_ap said:

Our 'defence' isn't ground ball...it's aerial. Lever and May are both very poor in the wet as it becomes very easy to prevent them (anyone) taking marks...ball hits deck, they're below average and our weapon is no more 

Results in the wet speak for themselves this year, not sure why you would question the theory when it's already been proven 

It does not sound like much rain, anyhow. If it is damp throughout the game, McV and Ginger Bowey are going to be required to play some big footy all game - even Salem will be expected to lift for the occasion. Rivers might be required to take over once again, and he should be a great foil for all things 'Collingwood'. 

[WalkingCivilWar 31,794]

47 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

Proven is commonly used as a verb, for what it's worth. 

That doesn’t mean it’s correct. It simply means it’s used incorrectly much of the time. Again, you’re welcome. 😁

[dazzledavey36 48,771]

16 minutes ago, Kick_It_To_Pickett said:

Genuine question, what games in the wet have we lost this year..the two I recall are GWS and Essendon 

 

16 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Geelong 

Carlton game was wet up until the game 

Port

[McQueen 17,863]

1 hour ago, fr_ap said:

? This isn't hard to understand. You know it and every semi-informed Melbourne supporter knows it, including those choosing to ignore it in favour of hope. Let me spell it out for you. 

May and Lever's intercept and contested marking is one of our main weapons. When it's wet, this weapon is somewhat nullified. 

Nearly all marking players are less impactful in the wet, this is true. But some cope better with this being taken away from them - for example they might have a terrific ground ball game with which they can offset. Rivers is one such player and Quaynor would be another. Darcy Moore is an intercepter, but he is more accomplished at ground level than most key backs of his size due to his athletic profilr. Ergo, poor conditions would arguably impact his performance less. May and Lever, who have different athletic profiles that serve them in different ways, are at best average ground ball players. Lever in particular is considered a poor ground ball player by a lot of opposition coaches, with many quoting over the years that going in fast and low is the key to getting around him. This is a reference to his speed (or lack thereof), and by extension, how his strengths as a player diminish somewhat when the ball isn't in the air. 

Given their prominence to our gameplan in normal weather, and how their demise often correlates with our teams demise, yes - May and Lever come in for special consideration as a discussion point. I'm not attacking their character, but discussing their strengths and weaknesses and how conditions impact those. 

I'm not going to source "comprehensive" stats because 1) I don't have the time and 2) I don't need to. I can have an opinion - which I know many would share - without needing to cite supporting evidence. This isn't a news article or, as you point out, a scientific journal. Find your own stats if you're keen. I wasn't under the impression I needed to research before posting.

Proven is commonly used as a verb, for what it's worth. 

It’s all relative - wet, greasy whatever the weather and conditions present, it affects both teams. 
All great talking about our intercept defenders as being ordinary in the wet and that’s totally fine. 

The contested ground ball is where it’s gonna be decided but I’m also convinced that our tall defenders will be apt enough to punch and spoil whatever threats come in. 

[fr_ap 2,148]

42 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

That doesn’t mean it’s correct. It simply means it’s used incorrectly much of the time. Again, you’re welcome. 😁

Wonderful. Well done 

[WalkingCivilWar 31,794]

5 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

Wonderful. Well done 

Why, thank you! So kind of you to say so. This certainly has proved to be a pleasant little conversation. 🙃

[WalkingCivilWar 31,794]

56 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

That is an upside. Hope he is picked if he's still suspect...

I also hope he is picked because this little fellah wants to belt out this chant he’s composed…

https://streamable.com/dr7ph6

Come to think of it, little Benny boy should sing it regardless. 

[Jaded No More 57,945]

48 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

 

Port

I reckon we lost that game because Butters was off the charts (and we didn’t shut him down hard enough), and because Clarry was clearly hampered in the last quarter with his hammy. 
Essendon game was a disaster. Poor preparation with the game in Perth the week prior. Just horrible. Rain or no rain we don’t win it. 
 

Geelong and GWS games were the ones where the rain killed us. Ball use and skills were atrocious. Geelong and GWS just adapted far better. Although kick straight and don’t lose Fritta and we win that GWS game comfortably. 

[Roost it far 6,150]

2 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

I reckon we lost that game because Butters was off the charts (and we didn’t shut him down hard enough), and because Clarry was clearly hampered in the last quarter with his hammy. 
Essendon game was a disaster. Poor preparation with the game in Perth the week prior. Just horrible. Rain or no rain we don’t win it. 
 

Geelong and GWS games were the ones where the rain killed us. Ball use and skills were atrocious. Geelong and GWS just adapted far better. Although kick straight and don’t lose Fritta and we win that GWS game comfortably. 

GWS didn’t adapt better, by any metric we beat them. We kicked for goal woefully and that lost us the game.

[DubDee 20,645]

3 hours ago, BDA said:

people getting very fixated on the weather. we'll win regardless. 

i would say we’ll win irregardless 

[DubDee 20,645]

Pies fans are nervous. they deservedly finished first but get the worst draw of all. suck it. 

Mates i’ve spoken too are not confident 

This QF for me is as big as a PF. whoever wins has one hand on the premiership cup 

[censored] im fired up!!!

[dl4e 5,585]

This bazarre fixation of the weather has me wondering if some people are looking for an excuse before it happened. People we are playing the filth in a final and losing to them is not an option.

[YearOfTheDees 3,092]

Jeremy Howe got a little bit to say. Tomorrows Hun

Even Jeremy Howe knew Brodie Grundy as a forward wasn't going to work.

Get out now: Pie’s pointed message to Grundy

Brodie Grundy is set for his third club in three years after the failed trade to Melbourne. What do his former teammates think of his treatment by the Demons? 

 

This win is going to feel even better now.

Edited September 3, 2023 by YearOfTheDees

[Jaded No More 57,945]

6 minutes ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Jeremy Howe got a little bit to say. Tomorrows Hun

Even Jeremy Howe knew Brodie Grundy as a forward wasn't going to work.

Get out now: Pie’s pointed message to Grundy

Brodie Grundy is set for his third club in three years after the failed trade to Melbourne. What do his former teammates think of his treatment by the Demons? 

 

This win is going to feel even better now.

Says the man who left Melbourne because he didn’t want to be a defender 

[YearOfTheDees 3,092]

5 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Says the man who left Melbourne because he didn’t want to be a defender 

And of course they were closer to a flag. 

[Great Northern Summer 688]

28 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

I reckon we lost that game because Butters was off the charts (and we didn’t shut him down hard enough), and because Clarry was clearly hampered in the last quarter with his hammy. 
Essendon game was a disaster. Poor preparation with the game in Perth the week prior. Just horrible. Rain or no rain we don’t win it. 
 

Geelong and GWS games were the ones where the rain killed us. Ball use and skills were atrocious. Geelong and GWS just adapted far better. Although kick straight and don’t lose Fritta and we win that GWS game comfortably. 

Some dodgy umpiring calls arguably cost us the Port game. The bump ball mark in the last quarter; a few questionable high tackles on the 1/4 and 3/4 time sirens... That being said, Port had enough chances to put the game away in the first half before we switched on in the 3rd quarter - we were lucky to still be in the contest at 1/2 time.

The Essendon game - I just put down to it being 'one of those games'. Probably the only game we've played in the last 3 years where we were never in the game. Happening in Round 5 is no big deal. There's no other side that's only had 'one of those games' in 3 years.

We were all over Geelong up until 3/4 time. I suspect we were following a heavy 'loading' program around the time that game was played, and the reason we ran out of legs in the last quarter.

We won every single aspect of the GWS game, bar the scoreboard in the end. If that same game was played again, we would win it 9 out of 10 times the way we played that day. Unfortunately, our forward line wasn't functional, GWS kicked goals against the run of play and from very difficult positions (namely, the Josh Kelly winner), when we couldn't even compose ourselves to win the game in the dying minutes (Neal-Bullen just kicked it nowhere with no pressure on him when he had teammates free 15 metres out from goal).

We may play better in the dry, but I wouldn't be too worried playing in the wet. The 'contest and defence' ethos aligns itself with more chaos ball movement, which means skills are never going to be pretty anyway. It'll be congested throughout, like finals generally are. I watched the replays of the Swans and Lions finals losses last year - they were exactly that way. We just have to play four quarters and run the game out and we will be ok - something we couldn't do in the finals last year and the only reason we lost both games.

 

 

[Great Northern Summer 688]

27 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Pies fans are nervous. they deservedly finished first but get the worst draw of all. suck it. 

Mates i’ve spoken too are not confident 

This QF for me is as big as a PF. whoever wins has one hand on the premiership cup 

[censored] im fired up!!!

I suspect both teams may still make it to the GF. If so, the team that has the week off next week will be advantaged, getting rest and also avoiding a a road trip the week before the GF.

[Wodjathefirst 2,285]

3 hours ago, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

I think you'll get a better indication of the weather on Tuesday, to far out to be following weather patterns far to inaccurate.

Don't stress yourselves out to early peoples.

 

Geez I wish I heeded your advice. It has been doing my head in. Been looking over the past few days and it was all getting progressively worse….. but I just looked now for an update…… seems less bad.

Note to myself- do not look again till Wednesday!🤞

[Binmans PA 26,117]

5 hours ago, bandicoot said:

This forecast is disastrous.. our whole game fab falls apart in the wet

Contest and defence falls apart in the wet? Could have fooled me.

[Binmans PA 26,117]

4 hours ago, Chook said:

Contest and defence fall apart in the wet? Interesting.

Sorry Chook. Beat me to it.

[Binmans PA 26,117]

1 hour ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Jeremy Howe got a little bit to say. Tomorrows Hun

Even Jeremy Howe knew Brodie Grundy as a forward wasn't going to work.

Get out now: Pie’s pointed message to Grundy

Brodie Grundy is set for his third club in three years after the failed trade to Melbourne. What do his former teammates think of his treatment by the Demons? 

 

This win is going to feel even better now.

Interesting that he's running off the mouth. Last time Langdon did that, they hit him.

[WalkingCivilWar 31,794]

3 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

MFCSS but make it meteorology 
 

And very happy meteorology by the looks of things. 😉 

[Winners at last 4,733]

What does Jane Bunn think?

[titan_uranus 22,365]

Yes, we’ve lost a bunch of times in the wet this year. 

But did we lose because of the wet? I’m not sure we did. 

The GWS game is a great example. Our game plan stood up all say despite the rain. It wasn’t the game plan that led to the loss, it was goal kicking. Our “contest and defence” was fine. 

We were a kick off beating Port in the rain and played one of our best quarters of the season when it poured. That loss didn’t at all suggest to me our game doesn’t work in the wet. We just got beat by a fop 4 side with an AA mid playing out of his skin.