GAMEDAY: Rd 19 vs Adelaide

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

3 minutes ago, layzie said:

More often than not this year when people here have said we should win by a certain margin it hasn't happened. Whether it's 4 goals over Freo/GWS, 6 or 7 goals against Carlton or 100 points plus against Hawthorn or North. 

Temper the expectations and remember there's two teams playing. A win is still a win.

I'm confused... as you wrote this "

Need to go out there and win the football game today. Probably getting to the point where we can only drop one or none more in 2023 to be realistic shot at anything. This simply must be a win. "

The fact that a win gives us 2 matches on 5th and percentage, would also mean, its not a must win.

[Elwood 3184 1,301]

This game is a bit of a fork in the road event. We can either take the path that’s heading straight for a top finish or we join a large pack that could finish anywhere and perhaps even miss out on making the finals.

People say it should be an easy win because Adelaide is no good away from home but it was less than a month ago that they almost beat Collingwood at the MCG. If we think we can take this lightly we have another thing coming.

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

6 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

Of course it counts, but beating the lions and then losing to a couple of bottom 8 teams in the lead in to finals isn’t intimidating anyone. Footy is a mental sport as well as a skill and tactics contest. 

Are the pies miles ahead? No, but if you don’t think teams are gonna be worried sitting a couple of goals in front of them with a quarter to go I don’t know what to tell you.. winning builds belief and I don’t think you can go into the finals on patchy form and flick a switch, I want to see solid wins from here on

We will have to disagree... the evidence is, we have lost 2, won 2, lost 2, and the inconsistent form - driven by the training methodology, didn't impact on our ability to come from behind in the final quarter and still persist. The outcome quite likely could have been different.

The winning builds belief concept only works, if you subscribe to the fact that you 'need' it.

For what it's worth - I appreciate the sentiment - and having worked in the space, it's not a useful theory to buy into. It's ideal if you have confidence/belief....but you don't need it. As an example, we lost two in a row... not winning form I suppose. Then we won... so what happened... we didn't have winning form AND still won?

We don't need to intimidate anyone... we just need to win on the days that it counts.

Go Dees ❤️💙

Edited July 22, 2023 by Engorged Onion

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

31 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Best of luck to Tommo today.

He will probably need 40 possessions, 20 marks and to kick eight goals from the backline for Goodwin to not drop him next week so long as Petty can still stand upright. 

[Brownie 5,981]

3 hours ago, Males said:

 *Crows to win the Free kick count with Nicholls umpiring.

*Gawny blocked and punched in the back of the head whenever Tex is near him, will get 0 frees.

*Trac held at every clearance, will get 1 free.

I really hope we turn up for this game, Crows are a dangerous team if we let them get on a roll. Hold them to under 60pts and kick straight.

Dees by 30pts...hopefully. 

If only there was a Sportsbet multi for those dot points. Dead set certain.

Time to put the foot down Dees.

Really happy to finish comfortably 4th and play the Pies first week.

Let's do it.

[MO FINE 171]

12 minutes ago, Elwood 3184 said:

This game is a bit of a fork in the road event. We can either take the path that’s heading straight for a top finish or we join a large pack that could finish anywhere and perhaps even miss out on making the finals.

People say it should be an easy win because Adelaide is no good away from home but it was less than a month ago that they almost beat Collingwood at the MCG. If we think we can take this lightly we have another thing coming.

IIRC Rory Laird played a blinder for the Crows that day and he’s out injured today. 

[layzie 33,805]

21 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

I'm confused... as you wrote this "

Need to go out there and win the football game today. Probably getting to the point where we can only drop one or none more in 2023 to be realistic shot at anything. This simply must be a win. "

The fact that a win gives us 2 matches on 5th and percentage, would also mean, its not a must win.

It's about form and the run in more so than mathematics for me, teams that win the flag don't drop too many games in the last month of the season. The reality is if we want a proper chance to win it all I think we have 1 defeat left in the bank at most to give. 

This was the same thing I thought after losing to the Dogs in 2021. If we were going to win it that year, then that was probably the last time we could afford to lose a football game including finals. 

Edited July 22, 2023 by layzie

[Fromgotowoewodin 1,606]

17 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

We will have to disagree... the evidence is, we have lost 2, won 2, lost 2, and the inconsistent form - driven by the training methodology, didn't impact on our ability to come from behind in the final quarter and still persist. The outcome quite likely could have been different.

The winning builds belief concept only works, if you subscribe to the fact that you 'need' it.

For what it's worth - I appreciate the sentiment - and having worked in the space, it's not a useful theory to buy into. It's ideal if you have confidence/belief....but you don't need it. As an example, we lost two in a row... not winning form I suppose. Then we won... so what happened... we didn't have winning form AND still won?

We don't need to intimidate anyone... we just need to win on the days that it counts.

Go Dees ❤️💙

Agree to disagree it is then.

Do we ‘need’ to go into finals where we need to win 3 or 4 in a row against the best teams in the comp in good solid winning form? Yeh maybe not but I don’t like going in on a couple of losses would much prefer to come in hot.

Do we ‘need’ Clarry to win those 3/4 games in a row? No we can probably do it without him but I’d like our chances much better if he’s out there. 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Fromgotowoewodin

[BDA 22,755]

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

Sounds dangerous.

As long as they get there chips at halftime they’re no trouble 

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

A side sitting 4th shouldn’t be losing to a side sitting 13th who probably aren’t going to make finals. I expect a solid win.

Dees by 30

[Deeoldfart 8,033]

Heading into the pointy end of the season with belief, confidence and momentum is vital.  Our outstanding ‘come from behind’ win against the Lions last weekend was a great starting point, and I’m hoping that we continue building from today.  Winning each quarter, with a 6+ goal final margin will do that.  Go Dees!  It’s time to get on a roll!

[DubDee 25,868]

Their fwd line is very good but we should win it in the middle and score freely as their defence is poor

50 point win

[forever demons 2,220]

17 minutes ago, BDA said:

As long as they get there chips at halftime they’re no trouble 

Are they little seagulls

[Roy Boy 373]

If worst case we lose (yes it can happen eg Giants, Freo etc), the only benefit is it helps the DEATH RIDE!

😝

[Kent 2,909]

Luke Dunstan 1 goal 1 behind 17 kicks 24 handballs 41 disposals 8 marks 5 tackles 141 dream team points

 

Great to see we have a competent inside mid if we have the need He is having a great season!

[dees189227 12,394]

We just need to bank the points.

But on a side note come along for the bluey entertainment. The kids will love it. 

[Demonland 72,193]

 

[Watson11 2,240]

51 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

We will have to disagree... the evidence is, we have lost 2, won 2, lost 2, and the inconsistent form - driven by the training methodology, didn't impact on our ability to come from behind in the final quarter and still persist. The outcome quite likely could have been different.

The winning builds belief concept only works, if you subscribe to the fact that you 'need' it.

For what it's worth - I appreciate the sentiment - and having worked in the space, it's not a useful theory to buy into. It's ideal if you have confidence/belief....but you don't need it. As an example, we lost two in a row... not winning form I suppose. Then we won... so what happened... we didn't have winning form AND still won?

We don't need to intimidate anyone... we just need to win on the days that it counts.

Go Dees ❤️💙

Statistics say the premiers win an average of 80% of their last 11 H&A games.  So usually, if you are not winning consistently, for whatever reason, you will be unlikely to win 3 finals in a row.

It’s interest to think that you would expect to perform on the day (finals), if you haven’t practiced (H&A).  It’s like goalkicking.  Why practice as you will be able to perform when you need it (Not!). 

[Superunknown 4,217]

Liked the article. Nothing wrong with a bit of Tour tie in

The comparison with Jonas’ ITT is apt. Time to drop the hammer. Just not sure it needs to be this game. 

[Tarax Club 3,914]

Crows V Demons at the 'G

Are you serious?

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

6 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Statistics say the premiers win an average of 80% of their last 11 H&A games.  So usually, if you are not winning consistently, for whatever reason, you will be unlikely to win 3 finals in a row.

It’s interest to think that you would expect to perform on the day (finals), if you haven’t practiced (H&A).  It’s like goalkicking.  Why practice as you will be able to perform when you need it (Not!). 

I'd argue you are  misinterpreting an outcome (a win) as the evidence that you have or have not played in a particular way.

There have been very very tight matches between the top 4 all year. Now, some people will have a look at expected scores - say us and port vs Collingwood and Collingwood should have lost both by around 5-7 goals.

I guess it's about how we as individuals look at whether performing means getting the win, and by/or by not taking into account the other team.

I come back to my point earlier about having lost 2 in a row and then suddenly winning... whats that about? We hadn't 'practiced winning for the previous two weeks'- so it had zero baring on the outcome of the 3rd game of those matches that we ultimately won.

[DeeZone 9,842]

Looking forward to this game today prefer the Crows at the G although 3:20 is a bit late and it will be very cold. May was a bit off last week but that may have been due to having a handicapped Petty not able to play his role after a couple of heavy hits. Hoping for a 20 - 30 point win but will accept any win, really need to keep Cats out of the Top 4. Good luck Thommo and Kade Chandler we could use a bit of extra zip around the ground. Let’s get in behind the team and make some extra noise to support the DA and our team, Milkshake mentioned the crowd noise in the last quarter let’s not disappoint them.!!!!

[binman 42,972]

3 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Sprint finish: Time for Max’s Melbourne to make their mark

From the article, in regard to our yo yo form in the last 8 weeks:

'That’s not the record of a serious premiership threat, particularly when compared to the Magpies'

Dies Pierek's memory not go back two seasons?

Given his cycling analogy, you might think he might have pointed to our 2021 season, and 2022 for that matter, and pondered whether our efforts to peak at exactly the right time is a feature not a bug. 

At least ponder if trying to peak at the right time is goody's modus operandi?

After a dominant first half of the 2021 the season, we had the almost identical run of yo yo wins and losses in the same block of games and we were more than a 'premiership threat'.

We won the flag in 2021 on the back of winning our last four home and away games and then playing what many called the most dominant finals ever.

The pattern was almost exactly the same last year - the difference being how tough our last few games were in terms of the opponents we faced and the intense, finals like pressure of those game because of the stakes. 

When it came time for the final summit, we were gassed.

The flag was won by a team copying our approach, who were able to win games in the middle part of the season (aided by their massive home ground advantage).

And maybe pierek might have looked a bit further back for a historical guide to test his hypothesis that a dominant home and away season equals being a serious premiership threat.

The last time a team was as dominant as the pies are this year in terms of the win loss ratio was the tigers in 2018.

The 2018 tigers were even more dominant than the the pies this year, as evidenced by their much higher percentage.

They entered the 2018 finals series at a prohibitive 1.70 to win the flag.

And didn't even make the grand final, let alone win it, getting bundled out in the prelim against, you guessed it Jon - the pies.

In the wash up of that season, hardwick pondered if they had been up too long. That would have been something pirek might have at least touched on in his article.

Stretching the cycling analogy, winning the Giro d'talia (the McClelland Trophy) is nice.

But the goal is to win the Tour de France (the flag).

History suggests winning both is possible (dees say hi), but very rarely happens.

Edited July 23, 2023 by binman

[BDA 22,755]

53 minutes ago, forever demons said:

Are they little seagulls

very expensive seagulls

[dazzledavey36 54,944]