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Contenders & Pretenders


ElDiablo14

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So we find ourselves mid-way through the season (how time flies!).

To me this season has been particularly hard to identify the real contenders from the pretenders.

What does DL think?

Are Collingwood, PA and Brisbane the only solid candidates so far?

Are we closer to the contenders or the pretenders based on current form?

Looking forward to KB game, I can't help but feel we are a chance.

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I reckon it will definitely come down to 3 three you've mentioned. The 4th team in a preliminary finally is going to be significantly out of their weight division (unless Geelong perks up).

When our intensity and pressure are up we can hang with those top sides, but we have too many lulls and unfortunately we just don't seem to have the ability to execute offensively when under pressure...which hurts in keeping the scoreboard ticking over against good sides.

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Five contenders IMO. 

#1 seed: Collingwood - clearly the Premiership favourites and won't have to leave the MCG in September. 

#2 seed: Melbourne - not the second best side in it, but crucially we play the MCG well and should be able to do enough to qualify for 4th. Running games out much better than 2022. 

#3 seed: Port Adelaide - people underestimate them, they probably should have won the flag in 2020 and only had a horror prelim evening in 2021, while 2022 was never a chance for them after the first month. They've bounced back quickly and Butters/Rozee are approaching their prime. They strike me as the most likely to qualify for a GF off the back of two home final wins - but then lose the GF to Collingwood, us or Geelong.

#4 seed: Geelong - they just never go away and can easily get on winning streaks. They won 15 straight on their way to a flag last year. Will be strengthened further when Dangerfield and Duncan among others return. Old as hell, but for whatever reason their older stars never seem to slow down. A real wildcard.

#5 seed: Brisbane - I think everyone kind of feels the same way about Brisbane. They'll put themselves in the conversation but won't be able to get it done deep into September. 

 

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Collingwood got beaten in 2 of their 3 finals last year playing this exact game plan. Melbourne lost both finals and we justifiably have a question mark on us. Port Adelaide’s most important players haven’t played finals, and they looked horrible on the G a couple of months back. Brisbane away from Brisbane are always 50/50. Geelong can’t afford to make a single mistake from here, and you have to question their desire given their aging list got their flag.

This is a very open season. It will come down to who does the hard work week in and week out, and who can keep their best players on the park and playing well in September.

My money is on Melbourne. Our defensive game plan holds up, our best players are equal or better than any other teams, and, most importantly, I really, really want to see us win a flag in person.

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Might reserve my thinking til   ...well...   after our next game.

All will be revealed then I'm thinking.

Ironically the game is often mocked as a psuedo Grand Final.

It wont be....   a Grand Final Test ?   Perhaps.

Ought to be a humdinger 

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Where the Premiers were placed after Rd11 in the last 10 years:


2022 6th

2021 1st

2020 6th

2019 6th

2018 1st

2017 5th

2016 4th

2015 6th

2014 2nd

2013 2nd

Only us in 2021 and WCE in 2018 were top of the ladder at Rd 11 and 4 of the premiers were placed 6th.

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42 minutes ago, rufus said:

I reckon it will definitely come down to 3 three you've mentioned. The 4th team in a preliminary finally is going to be significantly out of their weight division (unless Geelong perks up).

When our intensity and pressure are up we can hang with those top sides, but we have too many lulls and unfortunately we just don't seem to have the ability to execute offensively when under pressure...which hurts in keeping the scoreboard ticking over against good sides.

So can we make the prelim if we "perk up"?

This time last year no one expected Collingwood to make a prelim and if you had thought it, you'd have added that they would have been "significantly out of their weight division".

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2 minutes ago, Big Col said:

Where the Premiers were placed after Rd11 in the last 10 years:


2022 6th

2021 1st

2020 6th

2019 6th

2018 1st

2017 5th

2016 4th

2015 6th

2014 2nd

2013 2nd

Only us in 2021 and WCE in 2018 were top of the ladder at Rd 11 and 4 of the premiers were placed 6th.

So Essendon for 23 premiers lol

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8 minutes ago, brendan said:

So Essendon for 23 premiers lol

Ess were only 6W/5L at Rd11 (now at 7W/5L). Every Premier in the last 10 years was at least 7W/4L at Rd11.
I think we're still in with a shot this year and while I was the most despondent after a win I've ever been after Friday night, I feel better now. The Flag is wide open.

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This is a wide open season. Much like last year and 2021.

We were absolutely not seen as a serious contender halfway thru the season in 2021. Demonland was full of dreamers and non believers. 

Round 13 onwards is when things start to crystallize. 

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54 minutes ago, brendan said:

So Essendon for 23 premiers lol

There are some things we simply DO NOT joke about, Brendan. This is one of ‘em.

🤨

 

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Butters and Rozee, and to a lesser extent JHF, are small bodied light midfielders who I think will struggle physically when targeted later in the year. 
they still have Wines, an ageing Boak, and PP as bigger midfielders, but not sure they are good  enough to get it done. 
will be top 4 id say, but not impossible to beat, even at Adelaide Oval 

 

 

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The fewer the injuries the better the chance of winning the flag.

Moore and NDaicos do hammies or concussion during finals and the pies look shakey. Butters and Wines. Neale and Dunkley. Oliver and Petracca. Bont and English. Cameron and Danger

2021 was the beautiful, perfect storm for us

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i think you can throw a blanket over a bunch of teams

personally the notion of playing bears up there or the pear at the oval in a final would make me feel nauseous, as would the sound of the filth's braying mob

if i had to rank sides as likely contenders at this stage i'd have the order as:

  1. the filth
  2. the pear
  3. the bears
  4. us
  5. puddy tatts
  6. flagmantle
  7. footscray
  8. crom
  9. gc17
  10. peptides
  11. aints
  12. bloods
  13. tiggas
  14. gw$
  15. carltank
  16. poos&wees
  17. kangas
  18. meth coke

other than the bottom three or four, it's a pretty even competition and any team could surprise on their day

it's good for football

Edited by whatwhat say what
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Our defensive and contest game is finding form. In the heat of finals this is the only part of the game that matters. 

We're still tinkering with the team and trying some new things too. despite the knockers were on of the highest scoring teams this year too. 

I think we're in an incredible position.

I'm becoming a cracked record but I cannot believe how many of our fans are writing us off. 

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1 hour ago, whatwhat say what said:

i think you can throw a blanket over a bunch of teams

personally the notion of playing bears up there or the pear at the oval in a final would make me feel nauseous, as would the sound of the filth's braying mob

if i had to rank sides as likely contenders at this stage i'd have the order as:

  1. the filth
  2. the pear
  3. the bears
  4. us
  5. puddy tatts
  6. flagmantle
  7. footscray
  8. crom
  9. gc17
  10. peptides
  11. aints
  12. bloods
  13. tiggas
  14. gw$
  15. carltank
  16. poos&wees
  17. kangas
  18. meth coke

other than the bottom three or four, it's a pretty even competition and any team could surprise on their day

it's good for football

What's our derogatory nickname? Cheeseboards? 

Edited by John Demonic
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1 hour ago, whatwhat say what said:

i think you can throw a blanket over a bunch of teams

personally the notion of playing bears up there or the pear at the oval in a final would make me feel nauseous, as would the sound of the filth's braying mob

if i had to rank sides as likely contenders at this stage i'd have the order as:

  1. the filth
  2. the pear
  3. the bears
  4. us
  5. puddy tatts
  6. flagmantle
  7. footscray
  8. crom
  9. gc17
  10. peptides
  11. aints
  12. bloods
  13. tiggas
  14. gw$
  15. carltank
  16. poos&wees
  17. kangas
  18. meth coke

other than the bottom three or four, it's a pretty even competition and any team could surprise on their day

it's good for football

You seem pretty bullish on Freo.

I still think they can miss finals, and for our draft pick sake I hope they do.

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