Contenders & Pretenders

[redandbluemakepurple 317]

Petenders unless we have Petty and Schache playing.  Tomlinson couldn't keep up with McKay.  Smith as a defensive key forward didn't work as did Melksham didn't once TMac went down last year.  BBrown, Tmac, no longer can do enough.  Adams not doing much. Turner is too light to release Lever from second key back.  So the normal run of injuries means Pretenders.  Looking forward to being severely embarassed after the GF.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

6 hours ago, rufus said:

I reckon it will definitely come down to 3 three you've mentioned. The 4th team in a preliminary finally is going to be significantly out of their weight division (unless Geelong perks up).

When our intensity and pressure are up we can hang with those top sides, but we have too many lulls and unfortunately we just don't seem to have the ability to execute offensively when under pressure...which hurts in keeping the scoreboard ticking over against good sides.

Yes, we got thrashed by Port Adelaide by 4 points in Adelaide. Also got blown away by 11 points by Brisbane in Brisbane in Round 2 (to be fair I know the final score flattered us greatly, but the point is we came back despite the demoralisation of losing our Captain to what the players thought was a season-ending injury early in the game). Let's see what happens against Collingwood but I see no evidence that we can't keep up with the best sides. A couple of disappointing close losses, yes, but nothing terminal hopefully.

5 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Right now I wouldn’t have the Dees making prelim let alone winning one. 

Of course that could change.

Collingwood, Port, Lions are a lock. Spot 4 is up for grabs and I reckon Cats will make it given their home ground advantage. 

Well, according to @WheeloRatings we're a 73.8% chance of Top 4. If we finish Top 4 we are a very strong chance to make a Prelim given none of the 5th to 8th sides are MCG tenants.

I really don't buy into the Geelong-thing. I would have said if they's lost yesterday they would have almost certainly missed the 8. Basically it's impossible to win from 5th or below (it's happened once in 23 years). 6 home games, 5 away games. Are yet to play Port in Adelaide, Brisbane in Brisbane, Collingwood at the MCG. Looking at their draw they have one easy game (R17 against North at home). 11 games, 8 of them against sides above them on the ladder (they play Port twice), also Sydney (in Sydney), Fremantle (at home) and North as previously mentioned. They need to win 7 of 11 to guarantee finals (they have a good percentages so could get in with 12 wins). I'm not totally writing them off but.... Paying $10 to win the Premiership. Ridiculously short odds. This isn't 2022 when they were gifted 4 games by getting to play both West Coast & North twice.    

5 hours ago, Big Col said:

Where the Premiers were placed after Rd11 in the last 10 years:

2022 6th (1st after H&A)

2021 1st (1st)

2020 6th (3rd)

2019 6th (3rd)

2018 1st (2nd)

2017 5th (3rd)

2016 4th (7th)

2015 6th (3rd)

2014 2nd (2nd)

2013 2nd (1st)

Only us in 2021 and WCE in 2018 were top of the ladder at Rd 11 and 4 of the premiers were placed 6th.

So this is probably saying being on a good run of form going into the finals helps, and that it is hard to be dominant for a whole season. I've included where the teams finished at end of H&A in your table (which is a whole lot more relevant imo). 3 of the 6th teams (Richmond x 2, Hawthorn) had a reasonably modest improvement to 3rd and the other was Geelong last year. There's currently 1 game and percentage between 3rd & 6th. So what's this saying? You need to finish Top 4.

5 hours ago, Big Col said:

Ess were only 6W/5L at Rd11 (now at 7W/5L). Every Premier in the last 10 years was at least 7W/4L at Rbetween d11.
I think we're still in with a shot this year and while I was the most despondent after a win I've ever been after Friday night, I feel better now. The Flag is wide open.

So all the premiers were within striking distance of Top 4 after 11 or 12 rounds, and 9 of the 10 were in the Top 4 at the end of H&A. A sample of 10 is probably not statistically significant though (if it is you don't want to finish 4th, 5th, 6th or 8th 😀). 

4 hours ago, dee-tox said:

Brisbane vs Pies grand final.

I'm not sure about Brisbane. I accept they have improved this year but if they finish 3rd or 4th  (likely) they'll have to win 2 Away Finals to make the Grand Final, which definitely isn't their strength.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Sydney_Demon
Typos

[bandicoot 1,395]

6 hours ago, Bang Bang Bang said:

Five contenders IMO. 

#1 seed: Collingwood - clearly the Premiership favourites and won't have to leave the MCG in September. 

#2 seed: Melbourne - not the second best side in it, but crucially we play the MCG well and should be able to do enough to qualify for 4th. Running games out much better than 2022. 

#3 seed: Port Adelaide - people underestimate them, they probably should have won the flag in 2020 and only had a horror prelim evening in 2021, while 2022 was never a chance for them after the first month. They've bounced back quickly and Butters/Rozee are approaching their prime. They strike me as the most likely to qualify for a GF off the back of two home final wins - but then lose the GF to Collingwood, us or Geelong.

#4 seed: Geelong - they just never go away and can easily get on winning streaks. They won 15 straight on their way to a flag last year. Will be strengthened further when Dangerfield and Duncan among others return. Old as hell, but for whatever reason their older stars never seem to slow down. A real wildcard.

#5 seed: Brisbane - I think everyone kind of feels the same way about Brisbane. They'll put themselves in the conversation but won't be able to get it done deep into September. 

 

If Brisbane finished top 2 then they’ll play both games at home. Good luck trying to beat them. Not sure what they’ll be luck in mcg in the GF

[Dee Zephyr 17,313]

7 hours ago, dee-tox said:

Brisbane vs Pies grand final.

That’s it folks, let’s all go home. 

[Lucifers Hero 36,984]

Recently I posted about remaining 8-pt games and a teams opportunity to gain % boosts ie most likely vs the bottom 6 teams. 

Summary below.  Right hand column shows total 8pt games.

The rationale of the commentators saying we have the hardest draw is flawed imv!!  I reckon we have the easiest draw of contending teams.

Setting aside that any team can win on any given day,

• The 'easiest' draw is Demons, Saints and Bulldogs with six 8pt games only two of which are vs top 4 teams. 
• The 'hardest' draw is Geelong with 10 of the last 11 being 8pt games, 5 of which are vs top 4 teams.  They may not even make the 8 if Sydney and Freo get on a roll. 
• Pies will have to fight out the season with games vs Cats, Lions and Bombers in last 3 rounds.
• Similarly Lions have a challenging last 4 games.
• Cats will have to fight in every game; no resting of players this year.
• Top 4 locked in.  Other contenders not convincing of late.
• Dees will probably be top 2.  We play 5 of the bottom 6 sides to see out the season. (6 of the bottom 7 if we count Sydney).

Suns are the team to watch.  They won't make the 8 but they will have a very big say in who does!!

A very different run home for us than 2022.  We will have the chance to manage injured players enabling us to be one of the 'freshest' contenders going into the finals.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[YearOfTheDees 3,083]

Don't think people understand just how even this comp is now, even Meth Coast on the bottom would push a few sides if they could get a team on the park. 

[DubDee 20,364]

this time last season the narrative was who can beat Melbourne to the flag 

the message, premiership teams usually don’t dominate the first half of the season. you can’t keep that up for 7 months. 

from july i’m hoping we see a fit firing angry team. 

i’m backing us to win the flag

[chookrat 3,774]

I cannot see us losing another game this season. Will beat Pies on Monday in a game for the ages and not look back.

[Lucifers Hero 36,984]

7 minutes ago, chookrat said:

I cannot see us losing another game this season. Will beat Pies on Monday in a game for the ages and not look back.

I'm hoping our top 2 position is locked in by round 23 so the Sydney result won't be too critical.

Yes, a win coming up vs Pies.  Must win to get the monkey off our back and have them question their credentials against us come finals...probably the GF!!

Edited June 4, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[whatwhat say what 18,793]

7 hours ago, ElDiablo14 said:

You seem pretty bullish on Freo.

I still think they can miss finals, and for our draft pick sake I hope they do.

I am unfortunately

It’s very annoying

also worth beating in mind this is based on ranking teams in terms of premiership chance rather then whether they’ll make finals or not - Flagmantle’s start to the year will definitely hurt their chances

[IRW 1,212]

2 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Recently I posted about remaining 8-pt games and a teams opportunity to gain % boosts ie most likely vs the bottom 6 teams. 

Summary below.  Right hand column shows total 8pt games.

The rationale of the commentators saying we have the hardest draw is flawed imv!!  I reckon we have the easiest draw of contending teams.

Setting aside that any team can win on any given day,

• The 'easiest' draw is Demons, Saints and Bulldogs with six 8pt games only two of which are vs top 4 teams. 
• The 'hardest' draw is Geelong with 10 of the last 11 being 8pt games, 5 of which are vs top 4 teams.  They may not even make the 8 if Sydney and Freo get on a roll. 
• Pies will have to fight out the season with games vs Cats, Lions and Bombers in last 3 rounds.
• Similarly Lions have a challenging last 4 games.
• Cats will have to fight in every game; no resting of players this year.
• Top 4 locked in.  Other contenders not convincing of late.
• Dees will probably be top 2.  We play 5 of the bottom 6 sides to see out the season. (6 of the bottom 7 if we count Sydney).

Suns are the team to watch.  They won't make the 8 but they will have a very big say in who does!!

A very different run home for us than 2022.  We will have the chance to manage injured players enabling us to be one of the 'freshest' contenders going into the finals.

The only certainty is that the Dogs are  pretenders...as always.

What a crepe Club they are

[IRW 1,212]

Just now, IRW said:

The only certainty is that the Dogs are  pretenders...as always.

What a crepe Club they are...notwithstanding good old  Bob Murphy and the very good "Bont"

 

[whatwhat say what 18,793]

4 minutes ago, IRW said:

The only certainty is that the Dogs are  pretenders...as always.

What a crepe Club they are

made of tissue paper?

their core - bont, english, naughton, daniel, liberatore, macrae, dale, smith, juh, novax jones - is very strong but their depth falls away

the way bevo has turned lobb into a wingman is an interesting change of role

[layzie 28,524]

It's not going to be about who is the fittest or toughest, it's going to be about who is the fittest and toughest the longest.

As at stands I would have Melbourne as a good but not great side but we all know damn well that this could change in the back end. 

4 main contenders with a smokey to come from somewhere. I can see the Bulldogs doing some damage from outside the top 4 again. 

[Dee*ceiving 862]

We are good enough defesively to keep sides under 12 goals, even good ones. 

Question is can we score more than 12 goals ourselves.

On recent form we are: 

• being beaten in clearances
• displaying poor connection going forward by hand and foot  
• finishing poorly in front of goals 
• and taking fewer marks in the backline and through the middle of the ground than we used to

Lifting in 2 of these areas might be enough to bridge the gap though...remaining optimistic 

Go dees!

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

4 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Recently I posted about remaining 8-pt games and a teams opportunity to gain % boosts ie most likely vs the bottom 6 teams. 

Summary below.  Right hand column shows total 8pt games.

The rationale of the commentators saying we have the hardest draw is flawed imv!!  I reckon we have the easiest draw of contending teams.

Setting aside that any team can win on any given day,

• The 'easiest' draw is Demons, Saints and Bulldogs with six 8pt games only two of which are vs top 4 teams. 
• The 'hardest' draw is Geelong with 10 of the last 11 being 8pt games, 5 of which are vs top 4 teams.  They may not even make the 8 if Sydney and Freo get on a roll. 
• Pies will have to fight out the season with games vs Cats, Lions and Bombers in last 3 rounds.
• Similarly Lions have a challenging last 4 games.
• Cats will have to fight in every game; no resting of players this year.
• Top 4 locked in.  Other contenders not convincing of late.
• Dees will probably be top 2.  We play 5 of the bottom 6 sides to see out the season. (6 of the bottom 7 if we count Sydney).

Suns are the team to watch.  They won't make the 8 but they will have a very big say in who does!!

A very different run home for us than 2022.  We will have the chance to manage injured players enabling us to be one of the 'freshest' contenders going into the finals.

Thanks @Lucifers Hero. Brilliant work. I posted earlier about Geelong's run home. I think it's actually them, rather than the Suns that will potentially have the biggest impact on the Top 8. They actually play all of Collingwood, Port (twice) & Brisbane. I hope they do get on a roll (obviously not until after we play them in R15), but given they play all these teams away I think it's unlikely. The Suns have 5 home games left and 3 of them are against Collingwood, St Kilda & Brisbane so I hope they also get on a roll. They are very hard to beat at home this year.

Back to Geelong. Compare last year to this. Same result in R12, a win against Western Bulldogs. The last 10 games they had last year were against West Coast (twice), Richmond, North, Melbourne (at home as always), Carlton, Port (away), Western Bulldogs, St Kilda & Gold Coast. So 3 gifted games, with probably only the games against Melbourne & Port as danger games. Melbourne weren't traveling well, Port weren't playing like they are this year... and Geelong are 2 games & 10% percentage worse than they were last year. Anyway, I hope I'm wrong and they do do some damage after Round 15 (but definitely not before).

I think you're being a little bit optimistic re Melbourne's run home. Yes, a relatively easy run home, but if we drop both games against Collingwood and Geelong over the nest 2 rounds we will only be able to drop 1 more game for the rest of the season or we miss Top 4. Win 1 of those and we're looking pretty good.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

12 hours ago, DemonWA said:

Our defensive and contest game is finding form. In the heat of finals this is the only part of the game that matters. 

We're still tinkering with the team and trying some new things too. despite the knockers were on of the highest scoring teams this year too. 

I think we're in an incredible position.

I'm becoming a cracked record but I cannot believe how many of our fans are writing us off. 

I wouldn't say incredible. We should be 10-2 (bad kicking meant we lost against Port & Fremantle). Instead we're 8-4 and vulnerable. The next 2 games are important. If we win 1 or both (Collingwood, Geelong) we'll be well-placed. I do agree that it's ridiculous writing us off at this stage.

9 hours ago, bandicoot said:

If Brisbane finished top 2 then they’ll play both games at home. Good luck trying to beat them. Not sure what they’ll be luck in mcg in the GF

We thrashed them in R23 last year in Brisbane when they had everything to play for. Are they that much better this year? I think their finals performances last year were ridiculously overrated. Beat Richmond by 2 points at home in an elimination final, got lucky against Melbourne in a semi-final (the game should have been over at half-time), and got annihilated by Geelong in a prelim. I'd put it another way. If they don't finish Top 2 they're absolutely no chance. If they do finish Top 2 they're a small chance but only if they win their qualifying final. The chances of them playing Port in the GF are minimal. 

3 hours ago, IRW said:

The only certainty is that the Dogs are  pretenders...as always.

What a crepe Club they are

Pretty good in 2016. Beat Port away in a 2021 prelim and made the GF from 5th. Admittedly they gave up a big quarter time against Freo in an eliimination final last year but that game was in Perth, and it was hardly a capitulation. They do get runs of goals against them from opposition sides but that's the way they play.

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,852]

Beat Collingwood on Monday and everything is flipped on its head. All said and done we should really only be concerning our selves with win against 5 other clubs (Pies, Lions. Port, Cats, Freo)and so far we’re 0 from 3.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Bombay Airconditioning

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

1 hour ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Beat Collingwood on Monday and everything is flipped on its head. All said and done we should really only be concerning our selves with win against 5 other clubs (Pies, Lions. Port, Cats, Freo)and so far we’re 0 from 3.

Why only these 5 Clubs? Essendon & Western Bulldogs are above Geelong & Fremantle. And in addition to Western Bulldogs we have beaten 7 other teams. On the positive side the losses against Brisbane & Port were interstate, and we are yet to play Brisbane at the MCG. We don't play Fremantle & Port again. So we play 3 games against the sides you are concerned with. The other 8 are of equal concern to me. Every game is worth 4 points. 

[layzie 28,524]

It's an exciting season for a neutral, best in a while. Any calls about the 8 being 'set' or there only being 3 contenders for the flag are premature. Anyone think Collingwood were a legitimate threat this time last year?

Plenty of twists and turns to go in this one folks. 

[Diamond_Jim 11,681]

This weekend offers some real moving potential with our game and Bulldogs v Port plus three 60/40 games which could see the top 8 shaken up.

Might wait until the bye rounds are concluded before I take a view on the remainder of the season

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,381]

I'm just glad to be in the conversation.

Remember the dark years? At this time of the season all the discussion was about end of season personnel changes either to the playing list, the coaching panel (from the top down) or both.

[whatwhat say what 18,793]

20 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I'm just glad to be in the conversation.

Remember the dark years? At this time of the season all the discussion was about end of season personnel changes either to the playing list, the coaching panel (from the top down) or both.

it's why i'm taking nothing for granted

born in 79, started following footy in the mid-80s, and if we make finals this year it'll be only the second time in my lifetime we've made post-season in three consecutive years since 87-91 under northey

last year was the first time since 59-60 we've finished top two in consecutive seasons

loving the journey - just want us to frank it with some glorious premierships

[whatwhat say what 18,793]

16 hours ago, John Demonic said:

What's our derogatory nickname? Cheeseboards? 

i've seen that one, but the one most people tend to use is 'the dreamons'

[Rab D Nesbitt 7,061]

If it's the considered consensus that top four gets you a shot at the flag then I think we can draw a line through anyone that currently has a six & six record, or worse. Yes, that includes Geelong as they now need to win ten of eleven to get to sixteen wins.