The problem with being too definitive about the winning margin the Swans need to overtake us is that when dividing the quotient (the answer) varies according to the size of the divisor (bottom number).

The Saints' average tally over the last five matches is 70.4 points. Over the last two games against top four aspirants (cats and lions) it is 65.5.

For simplicity's sake let's give them 66 points this week which would make the Swans' divisor 1608 (currently Swans' points against of 1542 + 66).

If the Swans win by 60 points which is the margin Fox suggested, they romp it in. The calculation is 2105 (points for of 1979 plus the Saints' 66 and plus 60) divided by 1608 = 130.9 which is enough.

But if the Saints only score 50 points and lose by 60 the calculation is 2089 divided by 1592 (still a 60 point winning margin for Sydney) and the answer is 131.2 which is even better for Sydney; 

And this is the really bad news, if the Swans hold the Saints to just 50 points, and win by 51 points, they overtake us with a percentage of 130.6. So Rupert Murdoch's Fox is wrong (again). The calculation is Swans pts against 1542 + 50 = 1592. Swans points for of 1979 plus Saints 50 plus 51 winning margin = 2080. Then divide 2080 by 1592 and we are third.

On the other hand  if the Saints score 60 points and lose by 51 we stay in second spot with our percentage of 130.4. The Swans would need a nine goal margin to overrun us.

SO the key here is that the Saints score as heavily as possible. If the Swans defence holds tight they might overtake us with an eight goal win. I've never been keener on Dean Kent kicking a bag, although I hope we don't have to rely on that.

 

I’ll just watch the live ladder and let the AFL do the calculations for me. No way am I trying to calculate percentage on the fly.

Is there any chance that Sydney might prefer to play us at the MCG? We are travelling so well on the road...🤔

Anywhere, anytime- bring it on

It doesn't matter, the dees will win the QF wherever it is.

We could be playing the cats again in a prelim.

I bet Max would be smiling about that.

Loved the 10 goal win.  Hated the last 2 goals that the Lions got.  Especially the shocker of an ump that gave them the free in the last minute.  Could be costly … or not!! I agree it’s “anywhere anytime”.  Hope we get 2nd and eventually it’s a Cats v Dees grand final.  Bring it!! 

Hopefully the fast deck at Marvel means a free flowing and high scoring game. If Saints score about 70 we are home

4 minutes ago, Grapeviney said:

This is the cheatsheet I needed, blooming legend!!

1 hour ago, Deenooos_ said:

It doesn't matter, the dees will win the QF wherever it is.

True, but an MCG final will save me lots of $$ in airfares and accom in Sydney.

After last year, we deserve having a massive final on our home deck. Been a long time since battering the Hawks in 2018…

50 minutes ago, Grapeviney said:

Brilliant!

 

2 hours ago, pitmaster said:

The problem with being too definitive about the winning margin the Swans need to overtake us is that when dividing the quotient (the answer) varies according to the size of the divisor (bottom number).

The Saints' average tally over the last five matches is 70.4 points. Over the last two games against top four aspirants (cats and lions) it is 65.5.

For simplicity's sake let's give them 66 points this week which would make the Swans' divisor 1608 (currently Swans' points against of 1542 + 66).

If the Swans win by 60 points which is the margin Fox suggested, they romp it in. The calculation is 2105 (points for of 1979 plus the Saints' 66 and plus 60) divided by 1608 = 130.9 which is enough.

But if the Saints only score 50 points and lose by 60 the calculation is 2089 divided by 1592 (still a 60 point winning margin for Sydney) and the answer is 131.2 which is even better for Sydney; 

And this is the really bad news, if the Swans hold the Saints to just 50 points, and win by 51 points, they overtake us with a percentage of 130.6. So Rupert Murdoch's Fox is wrong (again). The calculation is Swans pts against 1542 + 50 = 1592. Swans points for of 1979 plus Saints 50 plus 51 winning margin = 2080. Then divide 2080 by 1592 and we are third.

On the other hand  if the Saints score 60 points and lose by 51 we stay in second spot with our percentage of 130.4. The Swans would need a nine goal margin to overrun us.

SO the key here is that the Saints score as heavily as possible. If the Swans defence holds tight they might overtake us with an eight goal win. I've never been keener on Dean Kent kicking a bag, although I hope we don't have to rely on that.

 

Thanks.

I was texting with a mate at half time. He was hoping for us to keep attacking and pile on the goals.

I replied we were more likely to try and shut the game down and maintain their lead, as keeping their score down was the key to maximising our percentage boost.

Goody will have been annoyed with the two late goals, but they did brilliant to limit the lions scoring in the second half, particularly given the lions never threw in the towel and continued to get inside 50s.

1 hour ago, adonski said:

AFL staffer working out last round %?

1 minute ago, deebunked said:

AFL staffer working out last round %?

That'd be a team of monkeys 

3 hours ago, ElDiablo14 said:

Is there any chance that Sydney might prefer to play us at the MCG? We are travelling so well on the road...🤔

Given that Sydney are 10-2-1 against us at the G from 2002, I think there’s some merit in your question.

11 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Given that Sydney are 10-2-1 against us at the G from 2002, I think there’s some merit in your question.

From 2002? What about the last 3 years? With the current lists.

From memory the last time we played them at the SCG, we beat them, Nathan Jones was still playing.

25 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Given that Sydney are 10-2-1 against us at the G from 2002, I think there’s some merit in your question.

I get I’m still haunted for Richard Osborne, I’m not sure the playing list is…

Scary huh, and this guy's head of the Spaceology Department at the Correspondence College of Tampa!

 

 

Home qualifying final is an enormous advantage. Big home crowds are like an extra player come finals. It's silly to think Sydney would prefer to play us at the G. Even if they have a favourable history there.

And if we get them at the G, it will be heaving with red and blue as opposed to the poor crowds we generally get in h/a games against them. 

It's a completely different environment. And we've all been dying to see our boys play a home qualifying/prelim final at the G. Anyone remember how much the boys thrived off us during the 2018 elim final against Geelong? 

All fingers crossed that results go our way tomorrow because if they do, the rest of the comp are going to be slightly concerned with a charging MFC playing in September back at their spiritual home. 

Genuinely scary. 

Does anyone know how the finals fixturing usually goes? Need to plan my weekend! Complicated by Father’s Day a little. 

cats v Freo/pies Friday night?

dees v swans Sat night?

EF Sat arvo and sun arvo?

just realised cats might get to play at Mordor if they play Freo 🤢

11 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Does anyone know how the finals fixturing usually goes? Need to plan my weekend! Complicated by Father’s Day a little. 

cats v Freo/pies Friday night?

dees v swans Sat night?

EF Sat arvo and sun arvo?

just realised cats might get to play at Mordor if they play Freo 🤢

Well at least there's good sample data on the last time they played a final there!

14 minutes ago, DubDee said:

just realised cats might get to play at Mordor if they play Freo

I'm sure I read somewhere that there will be no finals played at Kardinia Park this year due to the redevelopment of a large section of the stands and the subsequent limit on attendance.