CHANGES: Rd 22 vs Carlton

[SFebes 4,694]

59 minutes ago, John Demonic said:

We need to improve, but I'm sick of seeing this stat and not the full list of 18 clubs ranked by pressure. it's just a cherry picked champion data headline for fox footy from 1-2 months ago at this point that get bandied about by all talking heads. I want to CD to show us the context of it v our rivals: Where do Geel, Syd, Coll, Freo, Bris all rank in pressure?

How does our pressure rank in the past two weeks? Month? etc

Yes I'd love to see it and if it actually means anything. I do know that the in game "pressure rating" is very pivotal for momentum shifts and whether a side is "on" however its very frustrating to not know whether this is the actual rating. When we are "on" our pressure rating is 200+

[Stiff Arm 4,415]

Kossie out

Chandler in

[640MD 2,999]

In my opinion not much will change,

we were unlucky, undisciplined, and the pies were lucky and kicked straight . 
 

I think Harmes will come in and they should consider Bowey and Smith 

who goes out now that’s another question

perhaps ANB and Hunt  but for Smith I don’t know just see the possibility of him playing forward back and on the pine.

but goody does not like change. Especially if we have played well. Not great but very well. 
 

play that game again and we could win by 30 points but for stuff ups at very crucial times 

go Dees next Saturday 

[mo64 5,260]

8 minutes ago, 640MD said:

In my opinion not much will change,

we were unlucky, undisciplined, and the pies were lucky and kicked straight . 
 

I think Harmes will come in and they should consider Bowey and Smith 

who goes out now that’s another question

perhaps ANB and Hunt  but for Smith I don’t know just see the possibility of him playing forward back and on the pine.

but goody does not like change. Especially if we have played well. Not great but very well. 
 

play that game again and we could win by 30 points but for stuff ups at very crucial times 

go Dees next Saturday 

Why don't people consider goal kicking a skill? Luck has nothing to do with it when we're missing easy set shots, and they are kicking theirs. It's not like we've been accurate all year and just had an off night.

[adonski 9,291]

OUT: ANB, Melksham, Hibberd, Sparrow
IN: Bedford, JVR, Bowey, Harmes

[Fat Tony 4,533]

6 hours ago, old55 said:

Selection will be very interesting this week.  Will we stick with the same structure - one tall forward plus Melky as a defensive mid size, Angus in the middle rather than back; and if we do, will we stick with the same personnel to execute it?

I think we've been exposed by 3rd talls forwards against the Dogs' JUH 5.0 and the Pies' Ash Johnson 4.0.  We've held their key forwards well but the 3rd tall has gotten away and kicked very accurately.  This is somehow related to Jake Lever's role.

We're lacking composure when the ball hits the ground inside forward 50 and Jamie Elliott took full advantage.  We did defend the small playmakers well - Elliott's goals were not the result of making the play and Ginnivan was not a factor.  The balance is not quite right though.

We do need to change things up from last year and we now have a strategy to handball through traffic, if we want to play that way then inevitably, because of his role, ANB is going to get involved in a lot of chains.  He's the anti-Clarrie in that sense, he will always be tackled without getting a clean disposal.  That does usually results in a stoppage which is not a disaster, but I'm sure that's not the intent.  In high pressure games Alex is an asset with his pressure and a liability with the ball - we need to address this.

I think Goodwin is generally conservative, but he was definitely unhappy on Friday night.

Not sure it’s a balance in defence issue. The Dogs and Pies just kicked very straight and JUL and Johnson are both up and coming stars who held their marks.

I am more worried about our inability to connect the midfield and forward line.  

[titan_uranus 22,775]

40 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Why don't people consider goal kicking a skill? Luck has nothing to do with it when we're missing easy set shots, and they are kicking theirs. It's not like we've been accurate all year and just had an off night.

It is a skill.

But Collingwood isn't so good as it as to be repeating 15.6 all the time.

Think of it this way. Against us, they were +9 goals compared to behinds. They average 12.11, so they average +1.

Think of it another way. Their score of 96 points was their highest since Round 7. But in the games since Round 7, they've had more scoring shots than the 21 they had against us 8 times (and a further 2 times they had the same number of shots).

15.6 is an outlier that can't be explained by them being amazingly good set shots, because they don't do it every week.

[Fat Tony 4,533]

Just now, titan_uranus said:

It is a skill.

But Collingwood isn't so good as it as to be repeating 15.6 all the time.

Think of it this way. Against us, they were +9 goals compared to behinds. They average 12.11, so they average +1.

Think of it another way. Their score of 96 points was their highest since Round 7. But in the games since Round 7, they've had more scoring shots than the 21 they had against us 8 times (and a further 2 times they had the same number of shots).

15.6 is an outlier that can't be explained by them being amazingly good set shots, because they don't do it every week.

It was actually 15.4 with 2 rushed.

[GCDee 3,074]

GCDee is out for this week… my little one is dancing at the Ekka so I’ll be missing the game. 
 

see you all on the other side. 

[Harrisonrules 273]

In Harmes out ANB 

Move Hunt to forward flank or wing. Combine his defensive play with his goal kicking power.He has kicked goals in the past when he has played forward. 

[IRW 1,273]

51 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Why don't people consider goal kicking a skill? Luck has nothing to do with it when we're missing easy set shots, and they are kicking theirs. It's not like we've been accurate all year and just had an off night.

Yep hitting the post 3 times from the boundary on a windy day is unlucky  after that it's mostly skill and focus.

 

[mo64 5,260]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

It is a skill.

But Collingwood isn't so good as it as to be repeating 15.6 all the time.

Think of it this way. Against us, they were +9 goals compared to behinds. They average 12.11, so they average +1.

Think of it another way. Their score of 96 points was their highest since Round 7. But in the games since Round 7, they've had more scoring shots than the 21 they had against us 8 times (and a further 2 times they had the same number of shots).

15.6 is an outlier that can't be explained by them being amazingly good set shots, because they don't do it every week.

Their accuracy was relative to the lack of pressure we put on them. The looked like scoring every time they went onside 50.

[mauriesy 6,859]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

15.6 is an outlier that can't be explained by them being amazingly good set shots, because they don't do it every week.

They had a lot of shots from close range without much angle. Several came from HTB free kicks close to or in the goal square.

It probably says more about our somewhat-panicked defence on the night rather than their goal kicking accuracy.

[640MD 2,999]

2 hours ago, mo64 said:

Why don't people consider goal kicking a skill? Luck has nothing to do with it when we're missing easy set shots, and they are kicking theirs. It's not like we've been accurate all year and just had an off night.

Sorry you missed my point  or points  They had a lucky run with the bounce and perhaps decisions

and (separate point)  they kicked straight.   thats not luck

[Simon Port 157]

In: Harmes Bowey Smith Chandler

Out: Sparrow Hunt Melksham Nibbla 

[Simon Port 157]

8 minutes ago, Simon Port said:

In: Harmes Bowey Smith Chandler

Out: Sparrow Hunt Melksham Nibbla 

Harmes takes Sparrow's role as that rotating mid/forward as Sparrow had just 9 touches and isn't influencing games at all. Bowey comes in for Hunt to clean up our ball use and brings some more creativity into the side coming off the half back line. Chandler comes in for Nibbla who is very out of form and isn't getting enough of that link in the chain possession like he was earlier in the year. He isn't hitting the scoreboard enough and Chandler brings some x factor and more goal kicking power to the side. Lastly, I know this may seem controversial but, bringing in Smith as a wildcard forward marking option could present opposition defences with a few headaches. He will command respect in the air and gives the smalls a front and centre point of reference. We desperately need another marking target up forward without Tmac in the side and I feel like if you just unleash Smith and let him make a contest, at least the ball won't come out of our back half so easily. There's a recent article on the Melbourne website about Smith's move forward and we've seen it before in pre season games to good effect. Would be a risk but, one I think is worth taking like the pies have with ash johnson.

Edited August 8, 2022 by Simon Port

[rpfc 27,638]

I would t go holistic but I would move Sparrow out in favour of someone who is a forward. With Brayshaw there, it makes his primary function a forward more and more. Harmes struggles to play roles other than mid or run with roles. Maybe he can find a place. I would want to see Chandler but I also think Melksham has made us better up forward…

ANB won’t be dropped IMO. But he needs an understudy for the work he does for the mids around stoppages because his decision making has devolved.

But really, moves those deck chairs around all you want - Oliver and Petracca need to calm down and go short or hit space and trust their teammates or we are done. 

[WERRIDEE 5,251]

We are really missing that 2nd tall. Gawn just doesn't kick straight enough to be a threat. I think it's time to unleash the Rooy. In van Rooyen and Harmes out Melksham and Sparrow.

[NeveroddoreveN 1,034]

15 hours ago, John Demonic said:

We need to improve, but I'm sick of seeing this stat and not the full list of 18 clubs ranked by pressure. it's just a cherry picked champion data headline for fox footy from 1-2 months ago at this point that get bandied about by all talking heads. I want to CD to show us the context of it v our rivals: Where do Geel, Syd, Coll, Freo, Bris all rank in pressure?

How does our pressure rank in the past two weeks? Month? etc

Well i saw Sydney have had an average pressure rating of 201 over a 6 week period......The highest recorded over that period.

We generally look ok when we are pressuring the ball carrier.....Unfortunately this has been sadly lacking most games this year even our 10 in a row period.

We do run back hard though like vs Collingwood....

Just all seems pretty ineffectual when you got no pressure on the guy delivering the ball.

Adversely we crumbled with this mysterious pressure the ball carrier at all costs tactic in the 2nd half applied by Collingwood.

Our tactic lately seems to flood everyone back and let them waltz up the field, easily picking through the zone.

[old dee 22,983]

8 hours ago, rpfc said:

I would t go holistic but I would move Sparrow out in favour of someone who is a forward. With Brayshaw there, it makes his primary function a forward more and more. Harmes struggles to play roles other than mid or run with roles. Maybe he can find a place. I would want to see Chandler but I also think Melksham has made us better up forward…

ANB won’t be dropped IMO. But he needs an understudy for the work he does for the mids around stoppages because his decision making has devolved.

But really, moves those deck chairs around all you want - Oliver and Petracca need to calm down and go short or hit space and trust their teammates or we are done. 

That covers it rpfc, I don't think there will be mass changes. Sadly for Smith I think he will be at Casey this weekend. The stupid bye robbed him of any chance of being selected after one average game after a long time out injured. 

[layzie 29,765]

12 hours ago, GCDee said:

GCDee is out for this week… my little one is dancing at the Ekka so I’ll be missing the game. 
 

see you all on the other side. 

Break a leg! 😀

[old55 21,638]

14 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

Not sure it’s a balance in defence issue. The Dogs and Pies just kicked very straight and JUL and Johnson are both up and coming stars who held their marks.

I am more worried about our inability to connect the midfield and forward line.  

Contrary to popular belief I don’t think we've got a scoring problem. We did have an accuracy problem last week.

We lost last week because Collingwood kicked too many goals. We restricted their i50 entries well but the scored too easily and too accurately.

[poita 3,706]

Harmes for Sparrow should be a given.

We then need to bring in another tall up forward. Van Rooyen for Spargo is my preference.

Spargo plays too far up the ground and too wide, and consequently is rarely a factor either offensively or defensively. Melksham can equally deliver the ball inside 50, but will also keep Docherty more honest. Van Rooyen, assuming he can stay out of Brown's way, will provide another marking target inside forward 50.

[poita 3,706]

10 minutes ago, old55 said:

We lost last week because Collingwood kicked too many goals. We restricted their i50 entries well but the scored too easily and too accurately.

This is where McRae clearly outcoached Goodwin. Collingwood were happy to use Mihocek and (largely) Ginnivan to drag May and Lever out of the play. That left Hibberd and Petty to flounder one out against Elliott and Johnson. We should have stuck to our preferred structure even if it didn't give us the match ups we wanted.

[Pennant St Dee 11,481]

18 hours ago, picket fence said:

Spargo does not get the ball enough orhit the scoreboard enough. Out he goes for Chandler. Melksham is not the now nor the future, he goes out for Smith. Any one of Jordan, ANB , or Rivers or Hibbo for Harmes

What a surprise Picket calling for Spargo to be dropped,

Must be permanent cut and paste, unbelievable what you can’t see or more likely too pigheaded to acknowledge you don’t understand 

Your footy IQ is severely lacking