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GAMEDAY: Rd 17 vs Geelong



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3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Based on The AGE, AFL and some Fox tipsters we are the underdogs.

We'll show 'em!

Dees by 3-5 goals.

Evil sentiment does exist - directed at MFC and our surprising, recent successes. Sells more copies to those needing a newspaper columnist to sort out opinions. Perhaps Trump, amazingly, was correct; fake news is in abundance.

 

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Their changes from the Prelim are Henderson, Kaladjazjnee (?) and Ratagalea bringing in De konig, O'Connor and Stengle

We're missing TMac and Rivers with JJ and Bedford coming in

Last year we smashed them in stoppages, this year they move the ball much more quickly into their fwd line.

Will be a very interesting game

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I am off to the cattery tonight.  I am confident................... but I have learnt that means nothing when it comes to the result.

I feel if our mids get on top we will win. Geelong relies on a winning midfield to supply their very strong forward line.  If our mids can restrict clean entry we win .

Pumped for tonight!

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21 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Their changes from the Prelim are Henderson, Kaladjazjnee (?) and Ratagalea bringing in De konig, O'Connor and Stengle

That's probably a net profit for Geelong.

De Koning and Stengle have been influential additions to their side.

Henderson was on his last legs and Ratagalea has minimal influence in most games.

JK and O'Connor are useful soldiers to their side so net each other out.

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I live 20km from Kpark but can't be there tonight. I'll catch a ball-by-ball commentary on the radio at noon - from Greece (Corfu). 

BTW if you're coming to Europe in the next few weeks, pack your togs. It's stinking hot.

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Posted (edited)

Some things to watch from Geelong:

  • They used O'Connor to tag Oliver in April list year but it didn't work.  Oliver had a good game and Petracca was BOG.   Can't keep a good player down for long.
  • Cameron is playing up around the midfield a fair bit then races back i50 trying to catch his opp out.
  • Stengle is a wild card re their forward line.
  • They have changed their game plan to be more direct and 'play on'.
  • They have Shannon Byrnes who may give them good intel on our key players strengths/weaknesses
  • They have set themselves all year for this game by resting players, experimenting with players with different positions, different ball movement etc.
  • Scott very often pulls last minute changes an hour before the game or even during the warm up.
  • Scott could manufacture a minor injury to bring the fresh sub in the last quarter
  • They want revenge

Other than Richmond a few weeks ago they haven't played a good defensive side nor a high pressure side since Freo in late April.  We are back to our best in both defence and pressure.  Despite all their actions above they won't deal with our pressure and defence for 120 minutes.  When they lapse that will be our time to score.

Hopefully, we kick straight early and take the crowd out of reckoning.

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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14 minutes ago, Kozzie4PM said:

I'm driving down tonight - normally get the train. What's the best bet re parking?

You may snag a park in the small streets behind {eastern side} of the Barwon Club Hotel. 10 min walk.

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Posted (edited)

Im loving this scenario because we don't need to prove anything but Geelong need to prove everything, especially if this new game style can match it with the best.

They have gone away over Summer and apparently changed their game style and system, well lets see how this holds up on your own deck.

Lets see if they revert back to their chippy chippy style of footy when the pressure is at its hottest.

Judging by the Geelong biased commentary from certain quarters of the media, they don't like the Dees as reigning Premiers and top of the pops.

I say its just another game for the Dees to remain rent free consistently inside another pretenders minds.

Edited by YesitwasaWin4theAges
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Just now, chook fowler said:

Could you please visit the Cats dressing room?

So we have to hear for another 12 months how a virus got them? No thanks.

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10 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

Could you please visit the Cats dressing room?

Strange that no player across the AFL has recently had the dreaded covid given how prevalent the latest strain is.

Three players out of the Sri Lankan test side due to catching it

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This match all comes down to us and ability to apply sustained defensive pressure. If we can put pressure on for the majority of the match as we did against Brisbane, especially through the middle of the ground, then we'll win. Our best is the best in the league. If we're not able to apply pressure for long enough, then Cameron and Hawkins will get a lot of opportunities and get the Cats the win. We generally go ok against tall forwards, but Cameron and Hawkins are both elite. If they're getting good quick entries, no defender or team can stop them.

This all comes down to midfield pressure.Big games required from players like Harmes, Neal-Bullen, Sparrow to apply pressure and  allow Petracca and Oliver to get on their bike going the other way on counter.

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2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Their changes from the Prelim are Henderson, Kaladjazjnee (?) and Ratagalea bringing in De konig, O'Connor and Stengle

We're missing TMac and Rivers with JJ and Bedford coming in

Last year we smashed them in stoppages, this year they move the ball much more quickly into their fwd line.

Will be a very interesting game

Cats are significantly smaller based on those three changes. 3 talls out for 1

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4 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

It was the same on RSN this morning. Geelong this, Geelong that...........

We got 'em.

Lots of commentators are still anti Demons, see last year as a one off.

Not sure why, some obviously just don’t like Melbourne - Dermott & Ross Lyon at top of list. Imagine another reason is outright stating Demons are best doesn’t generate much excitement about what is to come.

Anyway just get to top 4, with few injuries and a little luck and we will be very hard to beat, as our best is still the best!!

Tonight not that big a deal, a win would be great, as who can like the umpires pets from Geelong!!

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Does anyone know what driving to Kardinia for a game is like? Trying to decide if I should train it or drive it. I live west side so would get on the train at Footscray. 

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It's not been explicitly called out but I think what the Cats have changed in both personnel & method this year is in direct retaliation to our matches & flag salute.

For that reason, I think they'll be absolutely primed for this and ready to make a statement (unfortunately). They've built their side this year to knock off Melbourne. 

The fact pattern is pretty clear:

  • For years Geelong relied on slow chip play to set up the ground & then strong marking forwards (Hawkins, Cameron, Rohan/Esava/other to a lesser extent) to kick a score (3+ tall setup forward). This was good enough against most teams but they then witnessed both Richmond & Melbourne go past them, despite persistent top 4 finishes, as full ground pressure systems collectively outweighed their star power up forward.  
  • Fool them once with Richmond - they backed in their system & went back to the well, doubling down with another elite KPF (Cameron). Didnt work. 
  • Fool them twice though...I dont think so. Our rise has made them take notice:
  • Our comeback goals at KP in Rd 23 was largely ground ball and/or small/medium forward/midfield goals. Spargo did damage (2), Pickett (3),  Oliver (2), Fritsch got out the back for the important one. Brown kicked 2, but Gawn's mark & goal after the siren was actually the aberration - it wasnt he, Tom Mac or Ben Brown that got us over the line. 
  • Fast forward to the Prelim - the smalls went to work again - Pickett 3, Fritsch 2, Spargo 2, ANB 1 and 4 goals out of the midfield. Max taking them to the cleaners was a by product of them being worried (rightly so) about our smalls against their slow/strong/tall backline (& of course, an outlier virtuoso performance no one could have stopped in any case)
  • Our strength last year was full ground defense and in particular, key backs / aerial balls into the 50. Their traditional slow gamestyle played into our hands, as has been widely reported. 
  • Their plan B for attack was lacking - they had very little by way of crumber/non set-shot goals, particularly with an ageing midfield that cant get forward & back as much as other teams to add scoreboard pressure. Cue - Stengle, Atkins, Close all in the same fwd line with Miers on the bench & reversion to a 2 tall / even 1 tall setup with Cameron roaming around the ground. That is the same number of small forwards we have in the side (4 - Spargo, Pickett, Bedford, ANB).
  • If our strength is/was aerial balls into the D50, this would appear a poor strategy if they continued to play slowly - so of course they've upped the speed of ball movement across the ground - quicker, less chipping & more playing on, creating more space for the speed of these small forwards to be a weapon. Hawkins & Cameron are the trump cards and threatening under any system of play which gives them a constant competitive baseline as/when smalls have down days (common for all but the very best).
  • That ties into their defense. Traditionally dour in a 1v1 sense with strong, tall, slow-ish but tight checking lockdown defenders (when your smallest defender is Bews, you know that's a big backline) as opposed to interceptors - this year their quicker ball movement means they can't rely on their back 6 to be in position all the time. Cue - a roaming & intercepting game plan utilising the height they have in Henry (a very good player), Blicavs and most importantly De Koning for this role. Stewart can play any role & we're lucky he's not in their side at the moment. Kolojashnij is the exception to this role as he still plays a lockdown role. They're better off without Henderson who never had the craft to go with Fritsch. 
  • The comparison above shows they're significantly smaller across the ground - 3 talls out for 1. This enables all of the above & means their running power is improved on last year. 

I trust the FD has studied them in anticipation for this game but don't expect it to play out like last year - they're a different side.

In their forwardline alone - Hib was always our matchup for Rohan. Bowey will therefore have to play on one of Stengle, Atkins, Close or Miers. All would back themselves to beat him 1v1 & for pace/craft.

Our remaining 'small' defenders are Salem and Brayshaw, neither of whom are close checking, so it wouldnt surprise me to see one of their smalls kick 3 or 4. Hunt for all his flaws could have been a good option in this game. Ditto Rivers who played on their smalls in the equivalent games last year. If Hawkins/Cameron add their customary 2/3+ each, they'll go a long way to getting the job done.  

Dees by 85

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

It's not been explicitly called out but I think what the Cats have changed in both personnel & method this year is in direct retaliation to our matches & flag salute.

For that reason, I think they'll be absolutely primed for this and ready to make a statement (unfortunately). They've built their side this year to knock off Melbourne. 

The fact pattern is pretty clear:

  • For years Geelong relied on slow chip play to set up the ground & then strong marking forwards (Hawkins, Cameron, Rohan/Esava/other to a lesser extent) to kick a score (3+ tall setup forward). This was good enough against most teams but they then witnessed both Richmond & Melbourne go past them, despite persistent top 4 finishes, as full ground pressure systems collectively outweighed their star power up forward.  
  • Fool them once with Richmond - they backed in their system & went back to the well, doubling down with another elite KPF (Cameron). Didnt work. 
  • Fool them twice though...I dont think so. Our rise has made them take notice:
  • Our comeback goals at KP in Rd 23 was largely ground ball and/or small/medium forward/midfield goals. Spargo did damage (2), Pickett (3),  Oliver (2), Fritsch got out the back for the important one. Brown kicked 2, but Gawn's mark & goal after the siren was actually the aberration - it wasnt he, Tom Mac or Ben Brown that got us over the line. 
  • Fast forward to the Prelim - the smalls went to work again - Pickett 3, Fritsch 2, Spargo 2, ANB 1 and 4 goals out of the midfield. Max taking them to the cleaners was a by product of them being worried (rightly so) about our smalls against their slow/strong/tall backline (& of course, an outlier virtuoso performance no one could have stopped in any case)
  • Our strength last year was full ground defense and in particular, key backs / aerial balls into the 50. Their traditional slow gamestyle played into our hands, as has been widely reported. 
  • Their plan B for attack was lacking - they had very little by way of crumber/non set-shot goals, particularly with an ageing midfield that cant get forward & back as much as other teams to add scoreboard pressure. Cue - Stengle, Atkins, Close all in the same fwd line with Miers on the bench & reversion to a 2 tall / even 1 tall setup with Cameron roaming around the ground. That is the same number of small forwards we have in the side (4 - Spargo, Pickett, Bedford, ANB).
  • If our strength is/was aerial balls into the D50, this would appear a poor strategy if they continued to play slowly - so of course they've upped the speed of ball movement across the ground - quicker, less chipping & more playing on, creating more space for the speed of these small forwards to be a weapon. Hawkins & Cameron are the trump cards and threatening under any system of play which gives them a constant competitive baseline as/when smalls have down days (common for all but the very best).
  • That ties into their defense. Traditionally dour in a 1v1 sense with strong, tall, slow-ish but tight checking lockdown defenders (when your smallest defender is Bews, you know that's a big backline) as opposed to interceptors - this year their quicker ball movement means they can't rely on their back 6 to be in position all the time. Cue - a roaming & intercepting game plan utilising the height they have in Henry (a very good player), Blicavs and most importantly De Koning for this role. Stewart can play any role & we're lucky he's not in their side at the moment. Kolojashnij is the exception to this role as he still plays a lockdown role. They're better off without Henderson who never had the craft to go with Fritsch. 
  • The comparison above shows they're significantly smaller across the ground - 3 talls out for 1. This enables all of the above & means their running power is improved on last year. 

I trust the FD has studied them in anticipation for this game but don't expect it to play out like last year - they're a different side.

In their forwardline alone - Hib was always our matchup for Rohan. Bowey will therefore have to play on one of Stengle, Atkins, Close or Miers. All would back themselves to beat him 1v1 & for pace/craft.

Our remaining 'small' defenders are Salem and Brayshaw, neither of whom are close checking, so it wouldnt surprise me to see one of their smalls kick 3 or 4. Hunt for all his flaws could have been a good option in this game. Ditto Rivers who played on their smalls in the equivalent games last year. If Hawkins/Cameron add their customary 2/3+ each, they'll go a long way to getting the job done.  

Dees by 85

Ha. Great summary. Great prediction. Rolicking good read. Thanks for that.

 Imo, im surprised by the confidence in this thread. Closest to a 50.50 game for us for quite a while.  Wont be surprised by the overreactions and meltdowns should we lose. Our fate will be decided in September no matter what happens tonight in reality. 

Edited by Jjrogan
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Should we lose tonight and I’m expecting to win! Unless Maggots give 40-5 frees, I think our 500 strong supporters should walk out singing, we had a virus, we had the flu, we had diarrhoea that’s why we lost, to show we can be good losers like coach Scott!!!

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I’m feeling pretty confident that the whole team will play out of their skins tonight and meet Geelongs ferocity with some Demon brutality. 
 

Us by 15 points. 

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