The Run Home

[sue 9,107]

2 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

....

They can now visualise success in Spetmember. last year they couldn't.

I hope they can visualise success in July and August.  This week would be a good start.

[spirit of norm smith 16,478]

R17: against Port at Alice Springs … 50/50. Port have no ruck but otherwise at full strength.  Lots of run and momentum at they recover from horrid start  

R18: against Bulldogs at Marvel.  They play well at the docklands stadium and have midfield back. Tough one. 60/40

R19: Freo at Freo.  Hard to beat at home but we need revenge .  It could define our seasons direction. Win and we stay in top 4 count. 40/60 game 

R20: big one against Collingwood at MCG - expect 75000 (huge ! ) they have our marker right now as their defense owns our inactive forwards - and yes very tough one again 50/50 

R21: against Carlton at MCG. Another very tough game. Expect 80,000 as Blues Mania hits   It will be finals atmosphere  50/50 

R22: against Brisbane at Gabba.  Ouch draw for the Dees.  We destroyed them earthier but they’re a 6 goal better team at home.  Probably a 40/60. 
 

So we could win between 0 and 5 in my view.  
Probably too much optimism to expect we’d win all 6 🤣🤣

[layzie 33,863]

Well...

[JV7 2,351]

Massive danger game IMO tomorrow...

Port are 7-3 over their last 10 & played some good footy. Neutral venue is a tick for them... 

We just need to get the win tomorrow by any means necessary, drop tomorrow & we are in real strife for top 4!

I'm a big believer in needing to time your run as we did last year, no point playing your best footy now as Geelong are. Problem is we may be coming from a long way back & need to produce & sustain our best a little earlier & for longer than expected if we have any speed bumps between now & September. 

Edited July 16, 2022 by JV7

[layzie 33,863]

7 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Massive danger game IMO tomorrow...

Port are 7-3 over their last 10 & played some good footy. Neutral venue is a tick for them... 

We just need to get the win tomorrow by any means necessary, drop tomorrow & we are in real strife for top 4!

I'm a big believer in needing to time your run as we did last year, no point playing your best footy now as Geelong are. Problem is we may be coming from a long way back & need to produce & sustain our best a little earlier & for longer than expected if we have any speed bumps between now & September. 

Correct. One goal tomorrow, get the W.

[JV7 2,351]

Must win next 2 if we are going to secure a double chance 

[Diamond_Jim 12,598]

1 minute ago, JV7 said:

Must win next 2 if we are going to secure a double chance 

You mean to stand a chance of getting the double chance

But yes those are the first two steps

Beating Collingwood is now an 8 point game

[Lucifers Hero 39,975]

It is in our power to shape the top 4 with games vs Freo, Pies, Blues and Lions.  A strong position to be in.

Given the weekend's results, Sydney will most likely make top 4 replacing either Freo or Lions.

[BDA 22,759]

A difficult run home for sure but you know what they say, when the going gets tough the tough get going

Big games all the way starting with the doggies. 2 blockbuster games at the G v the pies and Carlton. Huge rd 23 game at the Gabba to finish the H&A season before embarking on our finals campaign

A great couple of months of footy ahead of us. I can't wait

 

[layzie 33,863]

All roads lead to the Freo game in Rd 20. Take that scalp and then the power to shape the top 4 is firmly in our hands. 

[BDA 22,759]

Bold prediction (not really)

Geelong to win their remaining H&A games and go out of finals in straight sets

[old55 23,625]

5 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

It is in our power to shape the top 4 with games vs Freo, Pies, Blues and Lions.  A strong position to be in.

Given the weekend's results, Sydney will most likely make top 4 replacing either Freo or Lions.

Or us. We need to go 3-2 minimum to lock in top 4. We need the beat the Dogs and they will be primed for us.

[Lucifers Hero 39,975]

2 minutes ago, old55 said:

Or us. We need to go 3-2 minimum to lock in top 4. We need the beat the Dogs and they will be primed for us.

I have my sights firmly on a top 2 finish.

[old55 23,625]

2 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

I have my sights firmly on a top 2 finish.

Good to see you channeling your inner Pollyanna.  It's going to be fascinating to see what happens. It does feel different now that we're Premiers, I have equanimity.  I know now that we can do it, but I don’t have angst that we won't.

[brendan 3,437]

Cats are on an 8 game winning streak they will slip up at some point, I still think they have peaked too early same with Collingwood 

[DubDee 25,921]

Beat the dogs and we are safe for top 4.  we are already 4 points and significant % outside those outside the 4.

Massive game

[dazzledavey36 55,003]

7 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Beat the dogs and we are safe for top 4.  we are already 4 points and significant % outside those outside the 4.

Massive game

I'm probably more confident beating Freo in Perth then I am with the doggies this week for some unknown reason.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,862]

I think we can go as bad as 3-2 (16-6) and still finish second-fourth due to our great percentage. 

It's a pity that out of Brisbane, Fremantle, Sydney and Collingwood, only Sydney and Collingwood play each other. You would've loved more of these sides taking wins away from each other.

I can see a scenario where all of those sides (and Melbourne) finish 16-6 and then percentage deciding top 2, top 4 and elimination sudden death.

We need to have a couple of big percentage boosting wins on the run home and avoid any blow out losses if/when we do lose.

 

[Demon17 5,188]

1 hour ago, brendan said:

Cats are on an 8 game winning streak they will slip up at some point, I still think they have peaked too early same with Collingwood 

David King this morning on SEN was emphatic. on Geelong.

They have done nothing special until they prove themselves in September. Nothing has changed about them till then. They are a very good home and away team.

He said they play  "..tight.."  in finals and this is Scott's challenge.

He has - on current form and potential to improve -  Geelong No. 1 PF seed,  daylight, then Dees. Followed by Pies and swans.

Doesn't see Freo or Lions and Blues now a threat to the top 4. Freo's defence now not finals standard.

Just passing this on for what its worth.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Demon17

[gs77 4,255]

9 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

David King this morning on SEN was emphatic. on Geelong.

They have done nothing special until they prove themselves in September. Nothing has changed about them till then. They are a very good home and away team.

He said they play  "..tight.."  in finals and this is Scott's challenge.

He has - on current form and potential to improve -  Geelong No. 1 PF seed,  daylight, then Dees. Followed by Pies and swans.

Doesn't see Freo or Lions and Blues now a threat to the top 4. Freo's defence now not finals standard.

Just passing this on for what its worth.

Cats have something like 3 of their last 4 at their narrow home ground, last game vs the Eagles. Not the greatest preparation for finals intensity at the MCG. I hope we get to play and thrash them twice this coming finals series.

Edited July 18, 2022 by gs77
Changed f l o g to thrash

[darkhorse72 1,920]

Assuming we beat the dogs, the free game is the most important. Away in Perth, though though the dockers have been playing better away than at home, mental thing.  Hopefully they don't fix that before next week.

All the games are winnable and its good to have a hard run into finals to condition the team to those conditions.  In saying that we can manage the team better in terms of loading etc, due to the work we have already done. 

Teams like pie/blues have to out maximum effort in every week to maintain their position, can they sustain that and not enter the finals exhausted.  Same with the cats, an easy run home is not good prep.

[Redleg 40,976]

Would be great if we beat Dogs and Freo lose to Tigers, putting us 2 games and % ahead of Dockers. Martin and Lynch out for Tigers just to make that more unlikely.

[Sir Why You Little 37,052]

The Club planned for 15 wins (Top 4) at the beginning of the year. So we are still on track. Losing TMac is a big hurdle, but Ben was in better touch yesterday 

 

[BDA 22,759]

Baffles me why people think Geelong are a contender. They’ve tweaked the game plan and are playing well granted but they are a year older again. Watch them wilt come finals time. I really hope we get to play them and knock them out of finals again.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,862]

1 hour ago, gs77 said:

Cats have something like 3 of their last 4 at their narrow home ground, last game vs the Eagles. Not the greatest preparation for finals intensity at the MCG. 

There is something in that.

In 2018 Geelong played Freo and GC in round 22 and 23 at Geelong, and absolutely flogged both of those bottom dwellers.

We had a hard 3 last weeks in 2018 and then had that magnificent finals win over Geelong at the G..