Welcome to Demonland - Pick 17

[Axis of Bob 11,855]

17 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

About the same odds as Hawthorn and the Dogs missing it in 2009 and 2017.

Given that these were the only two occasions in the last 20 years, the odds are about 10%.

Not high enough to worry about a hypothetical future first round pick being 8 spots lower.

[BAMF 4,387]

Tim Lamb: "Hey Jase, pick 17 this year or our first round pick next year?"

Jason Taylor: "17"

Tim Lamb: "Done"

All I need to know.

[Jaded No More 68,974]

18 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

Given that these were the only two occasions in the last 20 years, the odds are about 10%.

Not high enough to worry about a hypothetical future first round pick being 8 spots lower.

And one could argue that the Dogs were no where near as dominant in 2016 as we were in 2021. Their flag was quite an aberration. 

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,902]

2 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

17,37 and 49 Taylor and his team are just brilliant at what they do. I think Taylor will go best available. A mid that can go forward like Laurie and a midfielder that can go back like Bowey. I don't know if he will risk going for a big man at mid range picks. The last time he did was on King and Hulett who were flops. He has a great record with midfielders mid range like Bowey, Sparrow and Jordon.

Big Maxy Gawn was a mid range pick 34 and the four picks before him we had who we selected on-ballers were flops.

Sometimes it's all a little bit luck of the draw, but I'll happily back Taylor with whatever type of player he thinks is best value at any pick, 17, 37 or anything.

[ChaserJ 5,167]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

He's come through our Bushies system since school boys days. His under 16 yearr was very impressive also which shot him in recruiters eyes.

From Shepparton and was an absolute gun soccer player. To the point where he was with one of the Melbourne development squads and actually had to choose between football and soccer.

He's a powerful and strong athlete bit like Petracca with his low gravity strength in being able to brush off opponents. 

There'll be other names around this pick that will be highly considered. Names like Matthew Roberts, Josh Sinn, Jacob Van Rooyen, Joe Amiss etc.

Some serious talent will slep through to our pick.

It’s a very sweet spot in the draft. Zac Taylor, Darcy Wilmot & Blake Howes are others in the mix at that spot & would happily have any of them at the Dees.

[DEE fence 5,039]

What I love, is that it is not just words about our team, our culture, our coaches and support staff, they are all competition benchmark. So you know that we have the ability yo take a later pick and realise the maximum potential of that recruit, in effect making them better than a higher draft pick in an inferior system. It also means when we trade out players later (something I hate but concede will happen) that we will get slight overs for them, benefiting from that same superior system we have.

And if Pert wanted to be really clever, find a way to monetize our IP in the form of coaches who leave for other clubs. Not sure this has even been done anywhere and I might be delusional. But just imagine if Hawthorn had been able to get some sort of return on all the coaches they have produced and exported. They would have made some cash. Anyway forgive tired ramblings.

Personally I hope pick 17 goes on a KPP/forward. 

[DeesFlag2020 90]

7 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

Richmond didn't trade picks for either of them. We're doing what Richmond didn't do.

The counter argument is much more compelling, which is that Richmond should have brought forward their first round picks from 2021 (when they missed the finals an got best value .... currently pick 7) through to 2017 when they won the flag (pick 18). By continually bringing picks forward during the flag window, you are betting that a player drafted at pick 18ish in 2017 would have more impact on Richmond winning flags than pick 7 in 2021, since that the difference in the trades. There are several players drafted at around pick 20 in 2017 that could have seriously helped Richmond win flags, like Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Noah Balta, Oscar Allen, Brandon Starcevich and Jack Higgins. The play they draft this year, albeit with pick 7, will have far, far less impact.

I would argue that pick 17 in the first year of you premiership window is far more likely to impact your ability to win flags than pick 7 in the year after your premiership window closes. The value of a good kid contributing to a flag diminishes ever year closer you are to the end of your flag window.

Yes, we must always consider what environment these guys are being brought into. Entering a list when that team is on top or near the top is a totally different learning environment than those teams in the bottom 15 in the ladder.
 

It is also a far more attractive environment in which to attract elite players who may be playing at less successful clubs (a situation the Dees know only to well). It is also an environment in which it makes it easier to attract the elite, whether they be coaches, training, medical staff or management. 
 

In short success builds on success, and this will be so for the next 5-7 years. Let’s not stuff it up by petty thinking, lack of ambition or complacency in Management. Certainly the most exciting time in my 60 or so years following the Dees. 

[Wrecker46 3,039]

Jason Taylor will dominate with pick 17. With covid cancelling alot of footy and making it impossible at times to travel interstate lots of teams will struggle with the picks before us.

JT only ever goes for 1 type of player, highly competitive. Other teams will make the mistakes we used to make and look for "leadership qualities" The person with just about the least leadership qualities we have drafted in the last 20 years just captained us to a premiership.

Or they will go for a skinny, skillful kid with "upside"

JT will have alot sitting there for him that he won't believe and will get a competitive jet.

 

[rpfc 28,788]

7 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

About the same odds as Hawthorn and the Dogs missing it in 2009 and 2017. Easy to look at the reasons they missed out now in hindsight and say they won't apply to us but I doubt anyone was saying they would before the start of those years. I'd put missing the finals next year as not much less likely than us winning the flag by 70 points before this year.

The inability to land a big fish and the possibility of ending up with a pick somewhere between 10-14 next year and having a top 5 guy on JT's board fall to that range are probably more compelling reasons not to do this trade than our pick being in the single figures.

 

I’m not sure I’m following; you are worried that we won’t land a top 5 talent next year even though we will have picks in the teens because we traded that probable pick in the the teens for a pick in the teens?

What if this kid we take with ND17 is another Bowey? Helps us win a flag. Next years draft ain’t helping [censored] in 2022.

[BDA 22,905]

7 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

Given that these were the only two occasions in the last 20 years, the odds are about 10%.

Not high enough to worry about a hypothetical future first round pick being 8 spots lower.

The doggies and hawks won flags ahead of time. We are more mature than they were. Saw a stat that we have on average 20 games more experience compared to the doggies in 2016. That's roughly one season more experience. Not sure what the hawks average games experience was but relatively low as well i bet. Unless injuries are severe next year (always possible of course) we are about 0% chance of missing finals next year

[dazzledavey36 55,372]

6 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

It’s a very sweet spot in the draft. Zac Taylor, Darcy Wilmot & Blake Howes are others in the mix at that spot & would happily have any of them at the Dees.

I'm a huge wrap for Zac Taylor. There's a bit of Zac Merrett about him. Classy outside mid who racks up the footy with ease.

Sam Butle is another as well should be around this range.

[durango 2,023]

Let us get facts straight in the 2008 Grand Final Geelong Kicked 11 goals 23 behinds to Hawthorn 18 goals 7 behinds, Geelong lost because during the 2nd Quarter they kick 1 goal 9 behind to 3 goals 1 behind and some of the misses where lamentable.

To sum up Hawthorn did not win because they were better but Geelong lost because they were incompetant at the art of goal kicking, if you read about some of the misses from the goal square which any U9 could kick.

The 2016 Grand Final was won on adrenaline and teams desire to brake 62 years lack of success and some times when you get to the top of the mountain the only way is down because you think the team had a long injury list and with all the players returning in 2017 your recruiting does not have to be spot on.

Tom Boyd played a great game which the following season he could not repeat with injuries and mental health problems eventually retired.

The premiers are number one team the year after the premiership and recuiting, training standards and recovery protocols have to be the best in the AFL to maintain that position.

To sum up we are premiers and the draft period has been A Grade to date we have recruited a midfielder who at very worst is a B+ midfielder who will put pressure on the incumbents to be better or lose their spot.

If the Grand Final has taught us anything its that a great midfield and great defence is the reason we are premiers fast exit from the middle allow forwards to be one on one and opposition backs are under extreme pressure and each mistake is costly and deadly disposal makes the forwards job easier when the kicks are their advantage.

[dee-tox 4,835]

With TMac, Max, BBB and May in the twilight of their careers will we try and go tall with pick 17?

Or do we think Weed, Petty, Tomlinson, Jacko, etc are sufficient?

[DemonLad5 1,642]

15 minutes ago, dee-tox said:

With TMac, Max, BBB and May in the twilight of their careers will we try and go tall with pick 17?

Or do we think Weed, Petty, Tomlinson, Jacko, etc are sufficient?

Given where the list is at I reckon we just go best available no matter what position

[Dee-licious 1,954]

Just now, DemonLad5 said:

Given where the list is at I reckon we just go best available no matter what position

JT’s mentality. 1st round is best available. Later in the draft you can draft needs. I’d try not to guess too much on who we will take. It’ll be the best player on our board. Just hoping it’s closer to our thought at 10 rather than 20 =)

[adonski 12,474]

Who was the last mid we took in the first round? Clarry?

Reckon they'll want the best available mid imo, with that being said if one of the more highly rated talls slide, their hand may be forced 

[Adam The God 30,434]

10 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

And one could argue that the Dogs were no where near as dominant in 2016 as we were in 2021. Their flag was quite an aberration. 

And Geelong were the best team in 2008 as well.

[ChaserJ 5,167]

3 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I'm a huge wrap for Zac Taylor. There's a bit of Zac Merrett about him. Classy outside mid who racks up the footy with ease.

Sam Butle is another as well should be around this range.

Yep, would be very happy with Butler too.  Bit of Butters about his play and excelled at the combine.

[TheoX 1,222]

Not much upside to this trade, other years when we've traded our future first we've finished much lower on the ladder so got better picks. 

But who cares, we won the flag! 

[MrFreeze 1,995]

Don't underestimate the value of an extra year of development into a young player.

Let's say we picked Kozy (or another small forward) in the same draft year as Bowey, much less likely that he'd be playing the same grade of footy he is now

 

[dazzledavey36 55,372]

10 minutes ago, A F said:

And Geelong were the best team in 2008 as well.

That grand final was the biggest choke of all time by a team.

Geelong had only lost 1 game that year leading into the grand final.

Please let that not be us next year..

[picket fence 17,557]

26 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

That grand final was the biggest choke of all time by a team.

Geelong had only lost 1 game that year leading into the grand final.

Please let that not be us next year..

It wont be Daz, because we AINT JEELONG!!! They are and thats why they choke, year after year after year!

[deelusions from afar 1,861]

Interesting comment on the theage real footy podcast - for a number of years we have sacrificed our future first to get into the first round of the current year (or to satisfy a trade in the case of Lever).  The year we didn't is after 2018 where we fell to 17th and our first pick netted us Jackson.

Lucky we didn't do it in 2018 - was this just luck?  Or did our list management team know we were likely to slide (due to injuries, over achieving in 2018 etc)?

[Adam The God 30,434]

9 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

Interesting comment on the theage real footy podcast - for a number of years we have sacrificed our future first to get into the first round of the current year (or to satisfy a trade in the case of Lever).  The year we didn't is after 2018 where we fell to 17th and our first pick netted us Jackson.

Lucky we didn't do it in 2018 - was this just luck?  Or did our list management team know we were likely to slide (due to injuries, over achieving in 2018 etc)?

I think it has become strategy since the 2019 off season and since it reaped such rewards in 2019 and 2020, it seemed likely we'd try it again this year.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

15 hours ago, manny100 said:

No way we miss finals next year. Don't rule out further trades to move up on draft night.

Chandler in talks with Crows?? May get a late pick or late future?

Is this even possible? Isn't Chandler a rookie? And haven't I read somewhere that rookies can't be traded (ie, are the equivalent of free agents)?