Welcome to Demonland - Pick 17

[FlashInThePan 1,893]

I love this pick swap. Not only does it get us into the first round but the later swaps are entirely illusory. All of the slightly higher picks we swapped (and more) will go in bid matching. 37 could actually be as high as a pick in the late twenties or early  thirties. When you consider that there will be bid matching on both Daicos and Darcy

[dazzledavey36 48,646]

I already have my eyes set on Josh Rachele from the Murray Bushrangers with this pick

Small forward/midfielder with A ton of X factor about him.

Think of a Toby Greene/Alan Didak

Edited October 6, 2021 by dazzledavey36

[picket fence 15,059]

1 minute ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I already have my eyes set on Josh Rochele from the Murray Bushrangers with this pick

Small forward with A ton of X factor about him.

Think of a Toby Greene/Alan Didak

Any footage Daz??

[DeeSpencer 23,060]

11 minutes ago, A F said:

The point is we get a first rounder this year, so continue to build our list. A year in our system for a young, hopefully elite draftee. It's a no brainer.

As for giving Taylor the best possible picks, thats what we're doing. 17 is infinitely better than a pick in the mid 30s...

We had the best injury run ever and lost Burgo. We’ve lost the ability to trade for Cerra this year by not having our pick, next year that means no Ben King or other highly rated player most likely. And Collingwood probably though getting 2 nice picks was better than their first rounder this year until they tumbled from finals to second last.

Having seen the locked in deal I’ll say it’s fine, maybe even good, but have to at least consider this won’t be good if we miss finals. 

[Deetention 86]

Can we trade P17 to Collingwood for Maynard

[dazzledavey36 48,646]

1 hour ago, picket fence said:

Any footage Daz??

 

 

[ucanchoose 1,803]

9 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I already have my eyes set on Josh Rachele from the Murray Bushrangers with this pick

Small forward/midfielder with A ton of X factor about him.

Think of a Toby Greene/Alan Didak

Much like Brad Green, he was once much better at soccer lol

[picket fence 15,059]

2 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

https://youtu.be/_ZqOryjWtZM

Yerrrrr like a lot Daz can see a lota Didak in him and silky smooooooooth delivery!!

[Cheap Seats 3,300]

18 minutes ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

Good to see that we are decisive and swift in our actions in the trade period still post Josh Mahoney. We target what we want to do and execute efficiently without  haggling over a couple of draft spots. I dont care for the trading out of next years draft. Keep doing it and next year never comes :)

Probably not the thread for this but... Now with Mahoney at Essendon will be interesting to see what they get up to this trade period. 

[Axis of Bob 10,168]

2 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

We had the best injury run ever and lost Burgo. We’ve lost the ability to trade for Cerra this year by not having our pick, next year that means no Ben King or other highly rated player most likely. And Collingwood probably though getting 2 nice picks was better than their first rounder this year until they tumbled from finals to second last.

Having seen the locked in deal I’ll say it’s fine, maybe even good, but have to at least consider this won’t be good if we miss finals. 

If we miss finals next year, then our future pick will also be worth more if we trade it forward. 

Also, each year further into our flag window makes the pick less and less valuable because the player we select will have less and less chance to impact on our ability to win a flag. Look at Jamarra Ugle-Hagan this year .... how much impact does he have on the Dogs winning a flag? We're better off getting a good player (pick 17) earlier than a slightly better (pick 10) player a year later. That player will be playing his first year in 2023 and probably not make any real AFL impact until 2024-5. 

We are in a situation where we need to bring the draft value forward because we want our draft assets to impact on our team whilst we are still a top team competing for flags.

[Rab D Nesbitt 7,058]

19 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

That's it!

And it means we get next years player in this year and can put 12 months of development into them. 

What don't people understand about being in a Premiership window? 

It is about the now, we make the team better NOW. 

We would only "lose" at the draft if we drop to the bottom of the ladder in 2022.  Do any of the critics of this tactic think that will happen next year?

Yeah, I like to keep things simple George. If only for my own sake. We have no idea where we will finish next year or who is available in the draft so why worry about it. As Donald Rumsfeld might say it's a known unknown. 

[CityDee 738]

Being the premier team

perhaps trading up again is an option to get in the top 10 . 

[drysdale demon 4,143]

27 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

We had the best injury run ever and lost Burgo. We’ve lost the ability to trade for Cerra this year by not having our pick, next year that means no Ben King or other highly rated player most likely. And Collingwood probably though getting 2 nice picks was better than their first rounder this year until they tumbled from finals to second last.

Having seen the locked in deal I’ll say it’s fine, maybe even good, but have to at least consider this won’t be good if we miss finals. 

Always the pessimist.

[DeeSpencer 23,060]

15 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

If we miss finals next year, then our future pick will also be worth more if we trade it forward. 

Also, each year further into our flag window makes the pick less and less valuable because the player we select will have less and less chance to impact on our ability to win a flag. Look at Jamarra Ugle-Hagan this year .... how much impact does he have on the Dogs winning a flag? We're better off getting a good player (pick 17) earlier than a slightly better (pick 10) player a year later. That player will be playing his first year in 2023 and probably not make any real AFL impact until 2024-5. 

We are in a situation where we need to bring the draft value forward because we want our draft assets to impact on our team whilst we are still a top team competing for flags.

I disagree, Richmond drafted Thomson Dow and Riley Collier Dawkins who are both talented but haven’t helped them. Nothing beats top level talent which is far easier to find right at the top. 

I’m certainly backing Jason Taylor in but there’s definitely a tipping point where the higher pick is just flat out better.

Anyway, let’s go out and draft a superstar and then win the flag again. That sounds good. I am pro that idea! 

[The Stigga 879]

29 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

We had the best injury run ever and lost Burgo. We’ve lost the ability to trade for Cerra this year by not having our pick, next year that means no Ben King or other highly rated player most likely. And Collingwood probably though getting 2 nice picks was better than their first rounder this year until they tumbled from finals to second last.

Having seen the locked in deal I’ll say it’s fine, maybe even good, but have to at least consider this won’t be good if we miss finals. 

If we missed finals next year a downgrade from pick 18-8 is the least of our problems...

[Demons1858 1,657]

58 minutes ago, FritschyBusiness said:

Surely this is to try and get Mac Andrew

Part of the deal might also be that the other 3 clubs involved in the swap don't pick Mac Andrews. Not part of the trade rules but it happens

[WERRIDEE 5,198]

Should we go for a developing ruckman or just best available? A developing ruck is the only spot we haven't focused on we have Jackson and that's it. Is there a ruckman that will go around that pick?

[adonski 9,102]

Just now, WERRIDEE said:

Should we go for a developing ruckman or just best available? A developing ruck is the only spot we haven't focused on we have Jackson and that's it. Is there a ruckman that will go around that pick?

Best available mid hopefully 

[Axis of Bob 10,168]

14 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I disagree, Richmond drafted Thomson Dow and Riley Collier Dawkins who are both talented but haven’t helped them. Nothing beats top level talent which is far easier to find right at the top. 

Richmond didn't trade picks for either of them. We're doing what Richmond didn't do.

The counter argument is much more compelling, which is that Richmond should have brought forward their first round picks from 2021 (when they missed the finals an got best value .... currently pick 7) through to 2017 when they won the flag (pick 18). By continually bringing picks forward during the flag window, you are betting that a player drafted at pick 18ish in 2017 would have more impact on Richmond winning flags than pick 7 in 2021, since that the difference in the trades. There are several players drafted at around pick 20 in 2017 that could have seriously helped Richmond win flags, like Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Noah Balta, Oscar Allen, Brandon Starcevich and Jack Higgins. The play they draft this year, albeit with pick 7, will have far, far less impact.

I would argue that pick 17 in the first year of you premiership window is far more likely to impact your ability to win flags than pick 7 in the year after your premiership window closes. The value of a good kid contributing to a flag diminishes ever year closer you are to the end of your flag window.

Edited October 6, 2021 by Axis of Bob

[Fat Tony 4,369]

The trade has cost us value in the range of pick #4-65 to shift the pick forward, but assuming we finish in the top 8, the cost is worth #40-65.

One side advantage of holding a pick inside 20 is it slightly increases the chance of Andrew falling out to 21. (We won't get him otherwise.)

We have been doing draft swaps which look bad in terms of value but then nailing the draft (Pickett and Bowey). It would be a terrible strategy if Taylor and co were not so successful.

 

[Demon Disciple 10,902]

3 hours ago, Deefiant said:

One of these years this will come back to bite us....

Yep, being premiers really really hurts.

[Demon Disciple 10,902]

1 hour ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

Good to see that we are decisive and swift in our actions in the trade period still post Josh Mahoney.

Given that Dodo is notorious for strewing trades out, Josh probably figures he may as well help us with our trading early , given he’d otherwise have nothing else to do until the last hour of trade week.

[Demonland 64,416]

 

[Dwight Schrute 16,722]

I really like this approach from us, it's very different to the Tigers/Hawks/Cats dynasties, where when they reached the peak they look to top up to stay in the window

we're backing in our core and leaders and looking to build from underneath. i think this is incredibly smart and a great formula to keep us contending for a long time to come/avoid running off the edge of the cliff like the Cats are about. 

I also think winning the flag this year with the side/core so young takes a huge amount of weight and expectation off them having been there and done that, i reckon we're a chance to be right up there for the next 8-10 years and potentially win another 3-4 

[manny100 1,001]

No way we miss finals next year. Don't rule out further trades to move up on draft night.

Chandler in talks with Crows?? May get a late pick or late future?