TEAMS: Rd 15 vs Essendon

[Guest]

We've followed the rules of good gardening with these picks. Surely, vines are preferable to weeds in the verdant foliage of the Melbourne football club.

I actually like this. While I would prefer BBB in the team as I felt he was harshly treated compared to the extended run Weed got, there are definitely more than one way to skin a cat. While Tom Lynch has been invaluable since 2019, remember that Richmond were just as imposing with a mosquito fleet, small forward line in 2017. Since we play a similar game to them, this makes sense to at least experiment with before trying again with a 3rd tall in the forward line.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Colin B. Flaubert

[Lord Nev 13,512]

7 minutes ago, binman said:

Sorry, Dazzler, objectively that is simply not true.

Max has been incredible this season. Sure he seems to have flagged a bit in the las few games but even in them he has been extremely influential  nd the amount of work he does is crazy.

One indicator of his level this year is that he is number one in the AFL by a mile in contested marks, which is particularly impressive given how much [censored] illegal spoils and blocks he has to fight though.

But better evidence of his level this year is that he is 7th in the coaches award, the best measure of performance in my opinion. Coaches don't give votes to players who have been poor.

Here is the top 15 as it stands atm. Some bloody good players in this list, and all in top form:

68	Clayton Oliver	MELB
66	Marcus Bontempelli	WB
60	Ollie Wines	PORT
55	Hugh McCluggage	BL
55	Darcy Parish	ESS
52	Touk Miller	GCFC
49	Max Gawn	MELB
48	Zach Merrett	ESS
48	Samuel Walsh	CARL
44	David Mundy	FRE
43	Rory Laird	ADEL
42	Dustin Martin	RICH
42	Nic Naitanui	WCE
42	Christian Petracca	MELB
42	Jack Steele	STK

I think where the split is though, is that his ruckwork seems a bit 'off' this year.

His around the ground work is still absolutely unmatched for a ruckman, but his hitouts to advantage are only rated as 'average' this year.

Statistically this year, only half of the hitouts he wins are going to advantage. I'm guessing that perhaps he's carrying a niggle that is affecting his ruck work, especially at centre bounces. Anecdotally he seems to protect that leg/shin/knee kinda area so I wonder if that's what it is and why it's more prevalent in the middle rather than around the ground.

In a handful of games this year, usually later in games, we've gone one a run of goals (from the centre) when Max was on the bench and Jacko in the ruck, and in a couple of them the opposition has clawed back goals (form the centre) once Gawn came back on. Could be that teams have worked him out, could be he's not 100%, could be form - but I don't believe it's coincidence.

He's still playing good footy overall because his contribution around the ground is amazing, but the centre ruckwork is definitely not firing like it normally would be for him.

 

[Pennant St Dee 13,118]

15 minutes ago, binman said:

Sorry, Dazzler, objectively that is simply not true.

Max has been incredible this season. Sure he seems to have flagged a bit in the las few games but even in them he has been extremely influential  nd the amount of work he does is crazy.

One indicator of his level this year is that he is number one in the AFL by a mile in contested marks, which is particularly impressive given how much [censored] illegal spoils and blocks he has to fight though.

But better evidence of his level this year is that he is 7th in the coaches award, the best measure of performance in my opinion. Coaches don't give votes to players who have been poor.

Here is the top 15 as it stands atm. Some bloody good players in this list, and all in top form:

68	Clayton Oliver	MELB
66	Marcus Bontempelli	WB
60	Ollie Wines	PORT
55	Hugh McCluggage	BL
55	Darcy Parish	ESS
52	Touk Miller	GCFC
49	Max Gawn	MELB
48	Zach Merrett	ESS
48	Samuel Walsh	CARL
44	David Mundy	FRE
43	Rory Laird	ADEL
42	Dustin Martin	RICH
42	Nic Naitanui	WCE
42	Christian Petracca	MELB
42	Jack Steele	STK

Max was made look very ordinary by young Lynch against Collingwood in the first half and he needs to get back to early season form, because Draper is hard at it and will bang into him for 4 quarters. He’s no mug and IMO along with Darcy at Freo going to be one of the top ruckman in a few years

[Grapeviney 9,712]

5 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I think T Mac’s mind was elsewhere against Collingwood which was understandable.

New bub is healthy and well, and even visited dad at work today, as per MFC twitter.

 

Unfortunately, Jack Viney's little one was also there, and the Viney family don't play well with others, which led to this.

[binman 42,683]

51 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

 

Statistically this year, only half of the hitouts he wins are going to advantage. I'm guessing that perhaps he's carrying a niggle that is affecting his ruck work, especially at centre bounces. Anecdotally he seems to protect that leg/shin/knee kinda area so I wonder if that's what it is and why it's more prevalent in the middle rather than around the ground.

 

 

I reckon this is where stats can be misleading.

I suspect that the key reason only half of the hit outs he wins are going to advantage is a function of how we are set up at stoppages and our clearance systems. If they wanted to increase that ration they could choose to do so easily enough. 

In around the ground stoppages, most other teams bring an extra to the stoppages to try and negate our mid filed and ruck strengths (like the blues did) or becuase that is what they always do (eg the lions and dogs). So it makes sense that less taps would go to one of our players.

And in the center square set up, we are looking to be more aggressive with our clearances, so any win we get gives us a clean inside 50 entry. So the objective is quality taps to a moving player rather than simply winning it, for winnings sake.

And both in the center and around the ground, if Max can't get a clean tap to moving player, he usually avoids hitting it to space and instead drops it close to the ruck contest (if possible to the opposition's defensive side of the contest), where there is a greater chance of it going to the opposition, because often that is where their extra is.

If he chose to hit the ball forward to space more often he might increase his hit outs to advantage, but hit outs that go to an opposition player out in space create a big rebounding risk.

Its all about playing the percentages.

The real stat to worry about is not hit outs to advantage, but what happens after we get a hit out to advantage. Nice clean inside 50's or exits from stoppages is the goal.

Tap outs to advantage that result in a pressured hack kick that gets picked off up the ground is what they are tying to minimise. 

As noted in the thread about Petty, we are keeping opposition points from turnovers under control and are ranked No.2 in this stat, where we were 11th last year. I reckon a big factor why this is the case is that whilst hit outs to advantage are down, so are the number of times a mid has to jam it on the boot under pressure and in dong so turning the ball over. 

Conversely a big reason we are miles ahead at the op of the intercept table is when the opposition win a hit out or shark one of ours, more often than not it is in tight and under intense pressure.

So a Max hit out that isn't initially to advantage, often ends up creating a post clearance win because we pressure the ball carrier, force a rubbish kick, intercept it and rebound brilliantly from our back 50 (we are 4th in the AFL in rebound 50s). 

Sure they are no doubt continually trying to perfect their set up etc but our intercepts, rebounding and much improved inside 50 to scoring ratio are all evidence the current model is working pretty effectively.  

And being 11-2 is pretty good evidence too i might add.

Edited June 25, 2021 by binman

[Lord Nev 13,512]

16 minutes ago, binman said:

I reckon this is where stats can be misleading.

I suspect that the key reason only half of the hit outs he wins are going to advantage is a function of how we are set up at stoppages and our clearance systems. If they wanted to increase that ration they could choose to do so easily enough.

Not sure that's true, Goodwin has talked about wanting to improve it for weeks.

  

16 minutes ago, binman said:

In around the ground stoppages, most other teams bring an extra to the stoppages to try and negate our mid filed and ruck strengths (like the blues did) or becuase that is what they always do (eg the lions and dogs). So it makes sense that less taps would go to one of our players.

And in the center square set up, we are looking to be more aggressive with our clearances, so any win we get gives us a clean inside 50 entry. So the objective is quality taps to a moving player rather than simply winning it, for winnings sake.

This is about stoppage setup, not about Max's ruck work though. It's not new that teams try to combat Gawn's ruck strengths, but what is new is how much we're getting beaten at clearances.

  

16 minutes ago, binman said:

If he chose to hit the ball forward to space more often he might increase his hit outs to advantage, but hit outs that go to an opposition player out in space create a big rebounding risk.

Then it wouldn't be classed as a 'hitout to advantage'. A hitout to advantage isn't one that gains territory, it's defined as one that goes to one of our players.

  

16 minutes ago, binman said:

As noted in the thread about Petty, we are keeping opposition points from turnovers under control and are ranked No.2 in this stat, where we were 11th last year. I reckon a big factor why this is the case is that whilst hit outs to advantage are down, so are the number of times a mid has to jam it on the boot under pressure and in dong so turning the ball over. 

Conversely a big reason we are miles ahead at the op of the intercept table is when the opposition win a hit out or shark one of ours, more often than not it is in tight and under intense pressure.

So a Max hit out that isn't initially to advantage, often ends up creating a post clearance win because we pressure the ball carrier, force a rubbish kick, intercept it and rebound brilliantly from our back 50 (we are 4th in the AFL in rebound 50s). 

Sure they are no doubt continually trying to perfect their set up etc but our intercepts, rebounding and much improved inside 50 to scoring ratio are all evidence the current model is working pretty effectively. 

This is irrelevant to Max's ruck work, unless you're saying Max intentionally loses ruck contests so that we can have the ball in the hands of our defenders?

 

If losing clearances is our strategy according to you, then:

- Why the difference when Jackson rucks?
- Why has Goodwin spoken of wanting to fix that?
- Why would we rush Viney back in?
 

Sorry mate, but just can't agree. It's pretty clear from both stats and observation that Gawn's ruckwork is nowhere near the level it normally would be this year. I think he's doing more than enough around the ground to still be one of our best, but all the factual evidence says he's not dominating it like he has in 2021.

 

[binman 42,683]

16 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Not sure that's true, Goodwin has talked about wanting to improve it for weeks.

  

This is about stoppage setup, not about Max's ruck work though. It's not new that teams try to combat Gawn's ruck strengths, but what is new is how much we're getting beaten at clearances.

  

Then it wouldn't be classed as a 'hitout to advantage'. A hitout to advantage isn't one that gains territory, it's defined as one that goes to one of our players.

  

This is irrelevant to Max's ruck work, unless you're saying Max intentionally loses ruck contests so that we can have the ball in the hands of our defenders?

 

If losing clearances is our strategy according to you, then:

- Why the difference when Jackson rucks?
- Why has Goodwin spoken of wanting to fix that?
- Why would we rush Viney back in?
 

Sorry mate, but just can't agree. It's pretty clear from both stats and observation that Gawn's ruckwork is nowhere near the level it normally would be this year. I think he's doing more than enough around the ground to still be one of our best, but all the factual evidence says he's not dominating it like he has in 2021.

 

Well, lets agree to disagree Nev

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by binman

[Tom Dyson 1,633]

17 hours ago, DubDee said:

Just me or does it feel like a loooong 2 weeks Viney was missing for?!

That's a classic Dave Misson two weeks if ever i've seen one. 

[Brownie 5,969]

4 hours ago, DeeZee said:

Viney can run with Merrett, Harmes to Parish and Hibberd on Stringer should get the job done.

Stringer seemed to be the stand out last week. Shut him down and we're half way there.

[D Rev 629]

14 minutes ago, Brownie said:

Stringer seemed to be the stand out last week. Shut him down and we're half way there.

Good shout Brownie.  I reckon fitness will play a big part in this.  We almost won the Pies game through just sticking with it, despite being off pressure-wise.  Stringer probably doesn't have the fitness to play out a VFL game.

That being said, Im not too confident about this one.

[Big Col 1,347]

4 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

To be honest Max needs to lift. He's been poor this year and I watched young Sam Draper last week who was very very impressive. I have more concerns around Max then I do with their rucks.

Draper is a huge ruckman who loves the physical side. Something Max doesn't like. 

Max is currently sitting 7th in the AFLCA champion player award and a shoe-in for another All-Australian berth. Lotfy standards indeed!

[Kick_It_To_Pickett 3,291]

8 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Harsh but fair call.

He really let us down last game and I thought he’d be omitted. There was another youngster with a much higher profile that would also want to make amends this week.

Kozzy Pickett?

[Kick_It_To_Pickett 3,291]

1 hour ago, D Rev said:

Good shout Brownie.  I reckon fitness will play a big part in this.  We almost won the Pies game through just sticking with it, despite being off pressure-wise.  Stringer probably doesn't have the fitness to play out a VFL game.

That being said, Im not too confident about this one.

He is a lot fitter this year than last. 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,685]

21 hours ago, Big Col said:

Goodwin said the Dees “don’t give anyone guarantees to play”.

“What we will do is pick the best team that is available and the best team that is in form, no matter who the name is,” 

I  wholeheartedly support this. Although hampered by the lack of VFL opportunities, B Brown doesn't come into the team just because of who he is. That was one of the first things Roos changed when he came to our club. In the Neeld days, we'd drop someone only to bring them back 2 weeks later when we dropped someone else, regardless of their form.
Beat the door down, Benny and you'll get as game.

You raise some good points Big Col, until we see some rock solid form from BBB in the 2's he can't just lob into the team on previous years form.

Will be interesting to see how we perform against the cheats with the 2 tall forward line and Vines back in the line up.

The better back 6's in the comp tend to double team Tmac when Weed has been playing this year, whilst when BBB played his 3 game stint they tended to pay him more respect.

But a with Gawn rotating through the forward line on a more prominent basis it's a tantalising prospect in a Jacko - Tmac set-up.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Win4theAges

[DubDee 25,671]

2 hours ago, Brownie said:

Stringer seemed to be the stand out last week. Shut him down and we're half way there.

be wary of Stringer during contract negotiations.  He'll be on until he signs and then he can put in another 3 crap years

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,778]

50 minutes ago, Kick_It_To_Pickett said:

Kozzy Pickett?

Yes.

[Swooper1987 3,322]

6 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Max was made look very ordinary by young Lynch against Collingwood in the first half and he needs to get back to early season form, because Draper is hard at it and will bang into him for 4 quarters. He’s no mug and IMO along with Darcy at Freo going to be one of the top ruckman in a few years

In the last three games he's polled 15 coaches votes - he's played one average half in the last three matches.  I reckon he's going alright.

[picket fence 17,056]

4 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

Not sure that's true, Goodwin has talked about wanting to improve it for weeks.

  

This is about stoppage setup, not about Max's ruck work though. It's not new that teams try to combat Gawn's ruck strengths, but what is new is how much we're getting beaten at clearances.

  

Then it wouldn't be classed as a 'hitout to advantage'. A hitout to advantage isn't one that gains territory, it's defined as one that goes to one of our players.

  

This is irrelevant to Max's ruck work, unless you're saying Max intentionally loses ruck contests so that we can have the ball in the hands of our defenders?

 

If losing clearances is our strategy according to you, then:

- Why the difference when Jackson rucks?
- Why has Goodwin spoken of wanting to fix that?
- Why would we rush Viney back in?
 

Sorry mate, but just can't agree. It's pretty clear from both stats and observation that Gawn's ruckwork is nowhere near the level it normally would be this year. I think he's doing more than enough around the ground to still be one of our best, but all the factual evidence says he's not dominating it like he has in 2021.

 

Ive lost count of the amount of times Max has put it down the throat of the opposition at Centre Bounces. Thats why we lose this stat.

[daisycutter 29,604]

max's ruckwork has been down somewhat this year.....proof?......my eyes

but that's not all bad......it just means he (and therefore the team) can still improve

good times ahead?..........hopefully

as for lack of talls in fwd line.......we did quite well for last part of 2018 without hogan

[dino rover 710]

8 hours ago, Dwight Schrute said:

I'm pretty confident he will Daz, i think the bye has probably helped a few players dealing with Niggles (I'm assuming that's the case with Max) 

 

It’s like our team is the only one with “niggles”.

[COOLX 207]

Someone stated we can't select BB because he has not had a great deal of game time . Yet we select Viney after 8 weeks (approx.)  what is the real difference ?

[CHF 2,720]

12 minutes ago, COOLX said:

Someone stated we can't select BB because he has not had a great deal of game time . Yet we select Viney after 8 weeks (approx.)  what is the real difference ?

Fitness?

[Chook 15,012]

38 minutes ago, COOLX said:

Someone stated we can't select BB because he has not had a great deal of game time . Yet we select Viney after 8 weeks (approx.)  what is the real difference ?

Viney is a force of nature and Ben Brown is a sideshow, bub.

[Pates 9,660]

1 hour ago, COOLX said:

Someone stated we can't select BB because he has not had a great deal of game time . Yet we select Viney after 8 weeks (approx.)  what is the real difference ?

Because Viney has runs on the board of when picked he hits the ground running. Look at the St Kilda game, he kicked to opening goal in 20sec of game time and had a cracker of a first quarter. 

BB when he’s played has looked slow and lumbering, with Jack you know what you’ll get. A beast!

I’m also pleased we’re going down the smaller forward line path, I can picture Harmes and Viney rotating through midfield and half forward. 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

I’ll be stoked if we can beat Essendon.

Step one is trying to break even at clearances, if we do that then we are a chance.