THE RUN HOME 2020

[Whispering_Jack 27,978]

1 PORT ADELAIDE Played 14, 44 pts, 128.4% 

TO COME: Bye North Melbourne Essendon Collingwood 

2 GEELONG Played 14, 40 pts, 138.7% 

TO COME Bye Essendon Richmond Sydney

3 BRISBANE LIONS Played 13, 40 pts, 117.4% 

TO COME Collingwood Gold Coast Sydney Carlton 

4 RICHMOND Played 14, 38 pts, 121.0% 

TO COME Fremantle Bye Geelong Adelaide 

5 WEST COAST Played 13, 36 pts, 115.3%

TO COME Essendon Western Bulldogs St Kilda North Melbourne

6 COLLINGWOOD Played 14, 34 pts, 111.7%

TO COME Brisbane Lions Bye Gold Coast Port Adelaide

7 ST KILDA Played 14, 32 pts, 113.3%

TO COME Bye Hawthorn West Coast GWS Giants 

8 MELBOURNE Played 13, 28 points, 111.7%

TO COME Sydney Fremantle GWS Giants Essendon 

9 GWS GIANTS Played 13, 28pts, 101.8% 

TO COME Carlton Adelaide Melbourne St Kilda

10 W. BULLDOGS Played 14, 28 points, 100.1% 

TO COME Bye Hawthorn West Coast  Fremantle 

11 ESSENDON Played 13, 26 points, 88.9%

TO COME Geelong West Coast Port Adelaide Melbourne

12 CARLTON Played 13, 24 points, 97.1%

TO COME GWS Giants Sydney Adelaide Brisbane Lions

13 GOLD COAST Played 14, 22 points, 101.8%

TO COME Bye Collingwood Brisbane Lions Hawthorn 

14 FREMANTLE Played 13, 20 points, 89.1% 

TO COME Richmond Melbourne North Melbourne Western Bulldogs 

15 HAWTHORN Played 13, 16 points, 82.6%

TO COME Adelaide St Kilda Western Bulldogs Gold Coast 

16 SYDNEY Played 13, 16 points, 80.2% 

TO COME Melbourne Carlton Brisbane Lions  Geelong

17 NORTH MELBOURNE Played 14, 12 points, 76.3% 

TO COME Bye Port Adelaide Fremantle West Coast

18 ADELAIDE Played 13, 0 points, 54.9% 

TO COME Hawthorn GWS Giants Carlton Richmond

[Alex Flood 245]

I think we win all 4 games & finish 6th if I’m being honest.

I expect this to be the ladder when it’s all said & done.

1 Port 56

2 Brisbane 56

3 West Coast 52

4 Richmond 50

5 Geelong 48

6 Melbourne 44

7 GWS 40

8 Collingwood 38

9 St Kilda 36

10 Bulldogs 36

11 Carlton 32

12 Essendon 26

13 Fremantle 24

14 Hawthorn 24

15 Gold Coast 22

16 Sydney 16

17 North Melbourne 12

18 Adelaide 0

[DubDee 20,639]

did the predictor, have us winning 3 and dropping the GWS game.  Play the Saints in the first final!

can't see anyone getting in on 9 wins

                        W  L  D
 1. Port Adelaide      14  3  0  131.2%
 2. Brisbane Lions     14  3  0  119.6%
 3. West Coast         13  4  0  121.5%
 4. Richmond           12  4  1  126.0%
 5. Geelong            12  5  0  131.0%
 6. Melbourne          10  7  0  110.6%
 7. St Kilda           10  7  0  110.6%
 8. GWS                10  7  0  104.4%
 9. Collingwood         9  7  1  105.8%
10. Western Bulldogs    9  8  0  102.4%
11. Carlton             8  9  0   97.2%
12. Gold Coast          6 10  1   98.6%
13. Essendon            6 10  1   87.2%
14. Fremantle           6 11  0   88.7%
15. Hawthorn            5 12  0   85.8%
16. Sydney              4 13  0   80.0%
17. North Melbourne     3 14  0   74.2%
18. Adelaide            0 17  0   59.5%

[Whispering_Jack 27,978]

5 minutes ago, DubDee said:

did the predictor, have us winning 3 and dropping the GWS game.  Play the Saints in the first final!

can't see anyone getting in on 9 wins

                        W  L  D
 1. Port Adelaide      14  3  0  131.2%
 2. Brisbane Lions     14  3  0  119.6%
 3. West Coast         13  4  0  121.5%
 4. Richmond           12  4  1  126.0%
 5. Geelong            12  5  0  131.0%
 6. Melbourne          10  7  0  110.6%
 7. St Kilda           10  7  0  110.6%
 8. GWS                10  7  0  104.4%
 9. Collingwood         9  7  1  105.8%
10. Western Bulldogs    9  8  0  102.4%
11. Carlton             8  9  0   97.2%
12. Gold Coast          6 10  1   98.6%
13. Essendon            6 10  1   87.2%
14. Fremantle           6 11  0   88.7%
15. Hawthorn            5 12  0   85.8%
16. Sydney              4 13  0   80.0%
17. North Melbourne     3 14  0   74.2%
18. Adelaide            0 17  0   59.5%

Based on this, Melbourne wins three games and loses only one of the remaining games but drops percentage which suggests the wins are by narrow margins and the defeat reasonably heavy.

I’ll take the place in the top 8 but it’s not the best way to enter a finals series. 

[DubDee 20,639]

5 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Based on this, Melbourne wins three games and loses only one of the remaining games but drops percentage which suggests the wins are by narrow margins and the defeat reasonably heavy.

I’ll take the place in the top 8 but it’s not the best way to enter a finals series. 

I had us beating bombers by 2 points. The other three games were around the 15-20 point mark. Aside from north and crows there are no easy beats in the league

[Pates 9,537]

This really is where beating the Saints puts us in a good position to make finals. The GWS game is the one to be feared the most but we have to take the momentum of the the on Sunday into the Sydney game. 

I can’t see us winning all four of our remaining games, mainly because it’s just isn’t what we do! But I can see us winning 3 of the 4. 10 wins gets us in I’d say, 9 and we’re probably finishing 9th. 

[Lucifers Hero 37,043]

12 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

A lot depends on whether the Giants have turned a corner and are back, or if it was just a one-off against a flat Freo. If it's the former, the Giants will finish above us given their soft draw.

Collingwood have to beat one of Port or Brisbane to get to 9.5 (assuming they beat GC).

They won't get many of their stars back for the Brisbane game next week, but they traditionally play well against Brisbane. If they lose that, they'll have to beat Port in the final round to get to 9.5. No guarantee there.

I had us losing to the Giants not because they 'are back' but because we haven't one 4 in a row since Aug/Sept 2018 and even then there was a bye in the middle of those 4.  Also, it will be our 4th game in 14 days including 4 consecutive flights.  Giants have similar breaks but not the burden of travelling to each game and have a softer draw.  Simply put we will be tired.  Hopefully not too tired to beat Ess in the last round.

Collingwood are already on 8.5 wins.  If they beat GCS it will put them on 9.5 without needing to beat Port or Lions. 

Tbh, I don't really care who makes it as long as we do.

[titan_uranus 22,363]

4 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I had us losing to the Giants not because they 'are back' but because we haven't one 4 in a row since Aug/Sept 2018 and even then there was a bye in the middle of those 4.  Also, it will be our 4th game in 14 days including 4 consecutive flights.  Giants have similar breaks but not the burden of travelling to each game and have a softer draw.  Simply put we will be tired.  Hopefully not too tired to beat Ess in the last round.

Collingwood are already on 8.5 wins.  If they beat GCS it will put them on 9.5 without needing to beat Port or Lions. 

Tbh, I don't really care who makes it as long as we do.

I expect us to lose to GWS as well. But then again, I expected us to lose to St Kilda.

You're right about Collingwood - they just need to beat GC to get to 9.5 and that should be enough.

[GCDee 3,006]

9 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I expect us to lose to GWS as well. But then again, I expected us to lose to St Kilda.

You're right about Collingwood - they just need to beat GC to get to 9.5 and that should be enough.

I think the pies don't win another game this season. I think GCS will get them, however if port have locked away a top two spot prior to round 18 they may rest some players for the pies game.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,196]

24 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I had us losing to the Giants not because they 'are back' but because we haven't one 4 in a row since Aug/Sept 2018 and even then there was a bye in the middle of those 4.  Also, it will be our 4th game in 14 days including 4 consecutive flights.  Giants have similar breaks but not the burden of travelling to each game and have a softer draw.  Simply put we will be tired.  Hopefully not too tired to beat Ess in the last round.

Agreed. You can just sense that there will be one game that we'll be severely fatigued and as flat as a pancake and it will cost us a win. Could even be as early as the Freo game.

I'm annoyed we have to fly-in-fly-out for the 2 Cairns games. Feels like we've made as many sacrifices as anyone with the scheduling. I see a few VIC teams have'n't really left the QLD hub.

At least we get GWS when they have a 4 day break.

Hopefully we play Essendon on at least a 7 day break (for us) which will probably be a "Win and In" game for us.

 

[Lucifers Hero 37,043]

To avoid the current top 5 team that misses the top 4, in the first final we need to finish 6th or 7th. 

10 wins and a good %'age should do it.

[DubDee 20,639]

If Melbourne GWS and saints are finish on 10 wins which is quite possible then Collingwood would miss the 8 on 9.5 wins

[Lucifers Hero 37,043]

1 minute ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Agreed. You can just sense that there will be one game that we'll be severely fatigued and as flat as a pancake and it will cost us a win. Could even be as early as the Freo game.

I'm annoyed we have to fly-in-fly-out for the 2 Cairns games. Feels like we've made as many sacrifices as anyone with the scheduling. I see a few VIC teams have'n't really left the QLD hub.

At least we get GWS when they have a 4 day break.

Hopefully we play Essendon on at least a 7 day break (for us) which will probably be a "Win and In" game for us.

I'm not sure if we definitely fly in and out for both the Syd and Freo games.  As our Sydney game is at 4.40pm (a time slot set for teams to fly back to hubs on the same day), suggests we do. 

But as no other team is flying to/from Cairns it doesn't make sense to charter a plane for just us.  So hopefully sanity prevails and we stay in Cairns. 

[DubDee 20,639]

If we make the 8 it will be an impressive effort considering our start. We’ll have to have won at least 7 out of 9 games. Playing away and flying around the country without a bye. Not to mention the heat in Cairns and short breaks

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,196]

11 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I'm not sure if we definitely fly in and out for both the Syd and Freo games.  As our Sydney game is at 4.40pm (a time slot set for teams to fly back to hubs on the same day), suggests we do. 

But as no other team is flying to/from Cairns it doesn't make sense to charter a plane for just us.  So hopefully sanity prevails and we stay in Cairns. 

Yeah I’m not 100% we fly in fly out but someone mentioned we are so I assume that’s the case.

[titan_uranus 22,363]

4 minutes ago, DubDee said:

If Melbourne GWS and saints are finish on 10 wins which is quite possible then Collingwood would miss the 8 on 9.5 wins

For St Kilda to get to 10 they have to beat one of West Coast or GWS (whilst beating Hawthorn).

If they beat GWS, that means GWS has to win its other three games (Carlton, Adelaide, and us).

That means we have to beat Essendon as well as Fremantle/Sydney.

Whilst that's all possible, I think it's more likely that GWS will beat St Kilda, meaning the Saints finish on 9 wins. I also think the Dogs will finish on 9 wins too (beating Hawthorn and Fremantle but losing to West Coast).

At this point I see Collingwood getting to 9.5 (beating GC), St Kilda and the Dogs getting to 9, and GWS getting to 10 without beating us. I also see Essendon losing at least two of its final four, meaning it will finish on 8.5 at most. 

If all that is correct, then if we beat both Fremantle and Sydney, we'll also be on 9, and will just need to rely on percentage to finish above St Kilda and the Dogs and take 8th spot. We're currently 11.6% in front of the Dogs but 1.6% behind St Kilda.

So that's a scenario in which we could finish on 9 wins and make it (need to bridge the 1.6% gap to St Kilda). But that leaves both the GWS and Essendon games as losses - win either of those and we're in for sure in this scenario.

[DubDee 20,639]

20 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

For St Kilda to get to 10 they have to beat one of West Coast or GWS (whilst beating Hawthorn).

If they beat GWS, that means GWS has to win its other three games (Carlton, Adelaide, and us).

That means we have to beat Essendon as well as Fremantle/Sydney.

Whilst that's all possible, I think it's more likely that GWS will beat St Kilda, meaning the Saints finish on 9 wins. I also think the Dogs will finish on 9 wins too (beating Hawthorn and Fremantle but losing to West Coast).

At this point I see Collingwood getting to 9.5 (beating GC), St Kilda and the Dogs getting to 9, and GWS getting to 10 without beating us. I also see Essendon losing at least two of its final four, meaning it will finish on 8.5 at most. 

If all that is correct, then if we beat both Fremantle and Sydney, we'll also be on 9, and will just need to rely on percentage to finish above St Kilda and the Dogs and take 8th spot. We're currently 11.6% in front of the Dogs but 1.6% behind St Kilda.

So that's a scenario in which we could finish on 9 wins and make it (need to bridge the 1.6% gap to St Kilda). But that leaves both the GWS and Essendon games as losses - win either of those and we're in for sure in this scenario.

Yep that could definitely happen. I reckon the Saints are filthy and will beat GWS who are pretty flakey. 

[dl4e 5,583]

I have a permanent case of MFCSS. I just love the way everyone is assuming we will win against sydney and freo. I feel a cold slither up my spine.?

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,089]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

For St Kilda to get to 10 they have to beat one of West Coast or GWS (whilst beating Hawthorn).

If they beat GWS, that means GWS has to win its other three games (Carlton, Adelaide, and us).

That means we have to beat Essendon as well as Fremantle/Sydney.

Whilst that's all possible, I think it's more likely that GWS will beat St Kilda, meaning the Saints finish on 9 wins. I also think the Dogs will finish on 9 wins too (beating Hawthorn and Fremantle but losing to West Coast).

At this point I see Collingwood getting to 9.5 (beating GC), St Kilda and the Dogs getting to 9, and GWS getting to 10 without beating us. I also see Essendon losing at least two of its final four, meaning it will finish on 8.5 at most. 

If all that is correct, then if we beat both Fremantle and Sydney, we'll also be on 9, and will just need to rely on percentage to finish above St Kilda and the Dogs and take 8th spot. We're currently 11.6% in front of the Dogs but 1.6% behind St Kilda.

So that's a scenario in which we could finish on 9 wins and make it (need to bridge the 1.6% gap to St Kilda). But that leaves both the GWS and Essendon games as losses - win either of those and we're in for sure in this scenario.

If we manage to beat Swans by 4 goals we will move above the Saints on the ladder on Thursday night! We'll be on equal games played then as well as they have the bye. 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,409]

20 hours ago, DubDee said:

did the predictor, have us winning 3 and dropping the GWS game.  Play the Saints in the first final!

can't see anyone getting in on 9 wins

                        W  L  D
 1. Port Adelaide      14  3  0  131.2%
 2. Brisbane Lions     14  3  0  119.6%
 3. West Coast         13  4  0  121.5%
 4. Richmond           12  4  1  126.0%
 5. Geelong            12  5  0  131.0%
 6. Melbourne          10  7  0  110.6%
 7. St Kilda           10  7  0  110.6%
 8. GWS                10  7  0  104.4%
 9. Collingwood         9  7  1  105.8%
10. Western Bulldogs    9  8  0  102.4%
11. Carlton             8  9  0   97.2%
12. Gold Coast          6 10  1   98.6%
13. Essendon            6 10  1   87.2%
14. Fremantle           6 11  0   88.7%
15. Hawthorn            5 12  0   85.8%
16. Sydney              4 13  0   80.0%
17. North Melbourne     3 14  0   74.2%
18. Adelaide            0 17  0   59.5%

So, if it pans out like this, as the higher ranked team we'll host our first final at the MCG, right?

[whatwhat say what 18,958]

if we do qualify for a 'home' elimination final, i wonder what ground we'll nominate - gabba or gold coast? i get the impression the latter might suit us slightly more?

[titan_uranus 22,363]

33 minutes ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

if we do qualify for a 'home' elimination final, i wonder what ground we'll nominate - gabba or gold coast? i get the impression the latter might suit us slightly more?

Adelaide Oval?

Traeger Park?

We struggled at Metricon vs the Dogs. Not sure of its dimensions but if it's wide, we probably won't want to play there if there are narrower grounds available.

[Deeko2 698]

8 hours ago, dl4e said:

I have a permanent case of MFCSS. I just love the way everyone is assuming we will win against sydney and freo. I feel a cold slither up my spine.?

I’ve heard of a cold shiver up ones spine but a cold slither is even more haunting!! I completely understand it however (oddly) following our boys for years and years.

I’m oddly confident against Swans and Freo but worry against GWS and big time against the bombers as who knows what those oxygen thieves will bring in the final round. 

[dl4e 5,583]

3 hours ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

if we do qualify for a 'home' elimination final, i wonder what ground we'll nominate - gabba or gold coast? i get the impression the latter might suit us slightly more?

Alice Springs.

[deanox 8,619]

1 hour ago, dl4e said:

Alice Springs.

We don't always have the best support in the NT with crowds often seeming to lean towards Adelaide and others, but I hope that if we nominate an Alice Springs final, that the whole state gets in behind us.

I actually hope we do too. Its probably the only time Alice will ever see an AFL final,  it would be an amazing gesture.