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11 hours ago, DubDee said:

~1200 cases in Victoria. more than half have recovered. The curve is flattening for sure (although don't tell the general public).  I reckon Andrews has done pretty well in a tough spot.

hopefully things will be turn around for us soon!

Things will be managed until the vaccine arrives

The 2nd wave of The Spanish Flu was far more vicious btw

Victoria has to be very careful, right now. 
with Winter closing in the right decisions must be made

 

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1 hour ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Things will be managed until the vaccine arrives

unfortunately that is where the arguments will come. How do you manage it when you have the chattering classes screaming that even one death is one death too many not to mention populist State leaders all with their NIMBY agenda.

Other than mass testing which is months off there is no easy way out of this. How long until we see breakdowns in the world supply chains of items that while not essential to our everyday survival provide us with our basic utilities etc. Think for example some item at a power station that is sourced from France who in turn sources parts from five other countries. The supply chain assumes you can fly one to Oz in 48 hours and we carry one spare. The list goes on.

I keep watching China daily. If it can come out of it we should be okay but if it goes the other way ... ah well who knows...I certainly don't.

Here they have closed the breweries as they are not deemed essential services !! Spirits disappeared from the shops weeks ago. Life is tough !!!!

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you have to laugh sometimes...

Just saw an article in the Age where some medico is calling for a halting of burn offs during the non fire season as the smoke haze can lead to respiratory problems which might put pressures on hospitals during the pandemic.

To think... three months ago we were ringed by bushfires such that the Indian chai wallahs I met all thought the whole of Australia had burnt down and then there were floods and now this.

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1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

unfortunately that is where the arguments will come. How do you manage it when you have the chattering classes screaming that even one death is one death too many not to mention populist State leaders all with their NIMBY agenda.

Other than mass testing which is months off there is no easy way out of this. How long until we see breakdowns in the world supply chains of items that while not essential to our everyday survival provide us with our basic utilities etc. Think for example some item at a power station that is sourced from France who in turn sources parts from five other countries. The supply chain assumes you can fly one to Oz in 48 hours and we carry one spare. The list goes on.

I keep watching China daily. If it can come out of it we should be okay but if it goes the other way ... ah well who knows...I certainly don't.

Here they have closed the breweries as they are not deemed essential services !! Spirits disappeared from the shops weeks ago. Life is tough !!!!

We're having this issue already.... techs at power generators are earning their $$$$ at the moment. Cost of parts are getting very $$ as well.

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On 4/5/2020 at 10:19 PM, Accepting Mediocrity said:

Yeah nah, that article is cherry picking at it's finest. Opinion is one thing, facts are another. Can we please stop comparing it to the flu? 

We don't know the case/ fatality rate, but no-one is pretending that we do. What we do know with absolute certainty is that allowing the virus to spread unchecked will result in a lot of preventable deaths.

Yes the mortality rate is low for young, healthy people. But if you're talking about millions of potential infections, a low mortality rate is still a disturbingly high number of deaths. That's not hysteria, that's just maths. 

Right now, we've really got 2 choices. Option 1: stay in lockdown and hope for the best. Option 2: relax restrictions, watch the number of cases increase exponentially, then say "Oh [censored], we shouldn't have done that!", and then go back to lockdown, now with overflowing hospitals and morgues.  

If we get to choose between the New York and South Korea options, why on earth would you choose New York?

 

For too long we have been accepting mediocrity, not you specifically,but our acceptance of mediocre,I would say incompetent government.

We have seen the corona virus crisis promoted into a n economic crisis and now into an ideological social change exercise.

We allowed our health system to be whittled away until it is deemed it cannot handle 100 people into intensive care,that our treatment and tracking systems cannot test and identify treatment regimes. We have accepted an erosion of our health research  facilities so they cannot respond to a health threat quickly.

We have accepted mediocre decisions related to manufacturing and supply facilities so that we cannot quickly provide respirators made in Australia.

We have accepted a mediocre border protection that could stop the boats but could not stop the boat that bought a huge impact to our infections

The government action has bought us time,but this action cannot nor does it need to last forever, or even six or three months.

As our health system responds  and our populations actions change we can return to a society that tests people who  associate,protects the most vulnerable and tracks contacts of any identified infectious people.

With our borders closed we can test and quarantine any new arrivals,and after self imposed isolation we should eliminate spread.

We are not China., we are not US,  we are not Italy. We have totally different cultural and societal structures. We should be anaylising our data and ensuring our health systems can respond to the realnumbers. We are only just reaching that point but this government has chosen to follow models that keep us in fear.

i look forward to the end game but fear how this will be done while our goverment continues its arrogant and incompetent actionsto keep us fearful while they erode our democratic systems.

 

perhaps I've been isolated too long.

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42 minutes ago, dpositive said:

For too long we have been accepting mediocrity, not you specifically,but our acceptance of mediocre,I would say incompetent government.

We have seen the corona virus crisis promoted into a n economic crisis and now into an ideological social change exercise.

We allowed our health system to be whittled away until it is deemed it cannot handle 100 people into intensive care,that our treatment and tracking systems cannot test and identify treatment regimes. We have accepted an erosion of our health research  facilities so they cannot respond to a health threat quickly.

We have accepted mediocre decisions related to manufacturing and supply facilities so that we cannot quickly provide respirators made in Australia.

We have accepted a mediocre border protection that could stop the boats but could not stop the boat that bought a huge impact to our infections

The government action has bought us time,but this action cannot nor does it need to last forever, or even six or three months.

As our health system responds  and our populations actions change we can return to a society that tests people who  associate,protects the most vulnerable and tracks contacts of any identified infectious people.

With our borders closed we can test and quarantine any new arrivals,and after self imposed isolation we should eliminate spread.

We are not China., we are not US,  we are not Italy. We have totally different cultural and societal structures. We should be anaylising our data and ensuring our health systems can respond to the realnumbers. We are only just reaching that point but this government has chosen to follow models that keep us in fear.

i look forward to the end game but fear how this will be done while our goverment continues its arrogant and incompetent actionsto keep us fearful while they erode our democratic systems.

 

perhaps I've been isolated too long.

A lot of garbage amongst this.

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5 hours ago, Cards13 said:

Think for example some item at a power station that is sourced from France who in turn sources parts from five other countries. The supply chain assumes you can fly one to Oz in 48 hours and we carry one spare. The list goes on.

 

5 hours ago, Cards13 said:

We're having this issue already.... techs at power generators are earning their $$$$ at the moment. Cost of parts are getting very $$ as well.

This is exactly why we cannot put our faith in Globalisation.   To the detriment of our own manufacturing industry.

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17 hours ago, drysdale demon said:

A lot of garbage amongst this.

Certainly but which bits?

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On 4/7/2020 at 4:51 PM, daisycutter said:

even leading scientists are pulling figures out of their arrrz.

They're not though - every relevant health expert is saying "At this early stage, we don't really know. But based on x and y, our best guess is z." Huge difference.

On 4/7/2020 at 4:51 PM, daisycutter said:

if life or death choices are made in the future it will not just be science based......science. ethics, economics and politics will all play a part.

Of course ethics/ economics etc come into it, but we can't hit the big red button and send everyone back to work until we've got a bit of an idea as to what the likely health ramifications will be. Jumping back into a pandemic won't magically fix the economy, either.

On 4/7/2020 at 11:14 PM, DubDee said:

The curve is flattening for sure (although don't tell the general public).

I don't think anyone's trying to hide it from the public. It's an encouraging sign, sure, but nothing has changed, really. The moment the public stop taking it seriously, we'll be back in exponential growth territory - with no guarantees we can get it under control again. It shouldn't be cause for celebration.

On 4/7/2020 at 11:14 PM, DubDee said:

I reckon Andrews has done pretty well in a tough spot.

I think most of us are in a state of shock as to how well all sides of Aus politics have handled this so far (aside from the cruise ship fiasco). Amazing, really, what can be achieved when politicians actually act in the interests of the people they're supposed to represent rather than the usual petty infighting and point-scoring.  It'd be nice if we remember that when we come out the other side of this.  

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On 4/7/2020 at 4:40 PM, bing181 said:

We could just cut the middle man here and go straight for human sacrifice.

Needs a poll. Demonland chooses between Spargo, OMac or Goodwin. Loser gets burned at the stake, Princess Shireen style. 

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On 3/26/2020 at 9:56 PM, faultydet said:

https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-warned-that-china-was-a-time-bomb-for-novel-coronavirus-outbreak-in-2007/

Coronaviruses are well known to undergo genetic recombination, which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks. The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored

 

Still think we might have a problem.

Things are changing,  a little.

https://www.worldanimalprotection.org.au/news/shenzhen-permanently-bans-wildlife-trade-consumption?id=G92G2020E&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJFMk9ERXdPV05tTTJFeCIsInQiOiJnNjBBOXliVW9JMk9cL1Y2SER5NzdxQ1wva3c5em4yT2ltdXpcL0lRNDRpWFBycGY2Y0E0VlJ3eHF3eFB6cGkrQWdsenQzY1hnY1wvSjI0bG5NT1FmMXB3c1FwN0RJb0NJVm1xVEluKzZGdUtFRk16Nm5HWVdYZ0Z5WWZKZFRac3FISHkifQ%3D%3D

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11 minutes ago, MyFavouriteMartian said:

but it's not just china, many (most) asian countries are big on eating/handling/butchering exotic wildlife in uncontrolled, unhygienic circumstances

let's hope they too do something about it or globalisation will be death of all of us

Edited by daisycutter
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On 4/8/2020 at 11:18 AM, Sir Why You Little said:

Things will be managed until the vaccine arrives

The 2nd wave of The Spanish Flu was far more vicious btw

Victoria has to be very careful, right now. 
with Winter closing in the right decisions must be made

The jury is still out on whether the seasonal changes have anything to do with increases/decreases in cases of COVID-19...
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239380-will-the-spread-of-covid-19-be-affected-by-changing-seasons/

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19 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

but it's not just china, many (most) asian countries are big on eating/handling/butchering exotic wildlife in uncontrolled, unhygienic circumstances

let's hope they too do something about it or globalisation will be death of all of us

Yes.  There has to be a start somewhere, 'dc'.

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masks not required here by law but social custom almost demands you wear one. Easily ordered 50 online but hell they're hot to wear on the equator . Week four of the lockdown about to start and no real sign of it being lifted.

My State of three million only has one hundred cases.

Biggest danger is that with little traffic many drive like maniacs as the speed limit is as fast as you can go !!!

Somewhat amusing that the model state of Singapore is suffering outbreaks amongst its migrant worker population who live in very small and cramped accomodation. Usually there would be ten to a room with the other ten out working their shift. They would then swap over but with the construction closed there are now twenty to a room.

The West has never really understood how Asia and the Middle East is so dependent upon cheap migrant labour.

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4 hours ago, daisycutter said:

but it's not just china, many (most) asian countries are big on eating/handling/butchering exotic wildlife in uncontrolled, unhygienic circumstances

let's hope they too do something about it or globalisation will be death of all of us

Reminds me of the Hendra Virus, passed from bats and fatal in humans that started in (checks notes) Brisbane.

Adventurous eaters those Queenslanders.

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Must confess I'm finding this whole isolation thing a bit of a challenge, so much so that I've started to talk to inanimate objects around the house.

I tried to discuss the situation with the microwave but it just keeps going around in circles.

The toaster thinks we’re toast.

I didn’t mention anything to the washing machine as it puts a different spin on everything. Certainly not to the fridge as it is acting cold and distant.

The iron straightened me out and said no situation is too pressing, but it still left me feeling a little flat.

The vacuum was very unsympathetic… told me to just suck it up but the fan was more optimistic and hoped everything would blow over soon.

The toilet looked a bit flushed when I asked its opinion and the doorknob told me to get a grip.

I lost it when wheelie bin gloated it’d been out more than me, the front door said I was becoming unhinged and the curtains told me to pull myself together.

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1 hour ago, bing181 said:

Reminds me of the Hendra Virus, passed from bats and fatal in humans that started in (checks notes) Brisbane.

Adventurous eaters those Queenslanders.

are you saying queenslanders eat bats?   yuk, i didn't know that. but nothing surprises me about queenslanders

anyway we were talking about wet markets of exotic wildlife, i'd be horrified if any existed here, even in qld

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2 hours ago, daisycutter said:

are you saying queenslanders eat bats?   yuk, i didn't know that. but nothing surprises me about queenslanders

anyway we were talking about wet markets of exotic wildlife, i'd be horrified if any existed here, even in qld

Some countries might consider kangaroo, crocodile or camel meat exotic. Yet I can get all three from the Vic Market most weeks!

They aren't butchered in front of me, but  I believe a virus in animals are often difficult to spot throughout the meat supply chain. An avian virus may not present symptoms in the bird, but can make a human sick. Does the animal have to be eaten to transfer a virus? Could it be feacal contact (hendra from bat s**t)?

Yesterday I heard an interview with a imunologist where he expressed surprise that a major pandemic of this scale hadn't happened sooner. After SARS and MEARS a broadbased vaccine should've been a priority years ago for world leaders and WHO.

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1 hour ago, Moonshadow said:

Some countries might consider kangaroo, crocodile or camel meat exotic. Yet I can get all three from the Vic Market most weeks!

They aren't butchered in front of me, but  I believe a virus in animals are often difficult to spot throughout the meat supply chain. An avian virus may not present symptoms in the bird, but can make a human sick. Does the animal have to be eaten to transfer a virus? Could it be feacal contact (hendra from bat s**t)?

Yesterday I heard an interview with a imunologist where he expressed surprise that a major pandemic of this scale hadn't happened sooner. After SARS and MEARS a broadbased vaccine should've been a priority years ago for world leaders and WHO.

moonie. obviously a new virus could evolve anywhere in the world even in a well regulated market and with normal regulated farmed animals but the chances are minimised and could be identified quicker 

but wet markets where exotics are sold live and either slaughtered at the market while you wait or taken home to slaughter all mixed up in an unhygienic environment with no health officials or any controls is just a disaster waiting to happen and largely preventable. I understand it is a long standing custom and if we didn't now live in such a connected global world i'd say it was their business, but that's not the reality of most of the world now so it becomes our concern too

and no the animal sourced virus doesn't necessarily have to be eaten to be transmitted 

after sars china undertook to abolish the wet markets but failed to do so. And as i said it's not just china. i think (hope) this will be the death knell for such markets (wherever they are). maybe the who can stop politicking and do something about it

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36 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

but wet markets where exotics are sold live and either slaughtered at the market while you wait or taken home to slaughter all mixed up in an unhygienic environment with no health officials or any controls is just a disaster waiting to happen

When the West was broadly wealthy,  and wanted to remain so,  it was an in-house scheme.  And WE kept the others out of it, and down on their LUCK.   Mostly Asians and Africans and Sth Americans.

We kept them down to maximise our wealth.

 

36 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

and if we didn't now live in such a connected global world i'd say it was their business, but that's not the reality of most of the world now

so it becomes our concern too

Then our top enterprise leaders wanted to outsource our industries to gain further margins as our middle classes grew to take more.

 We were a part of their backwardness,  in education and development, and then,  all of a sudden,  we were a part of their fast growth and desire for wealth.

We have been a part of their lives and customs for centuries.  And so have influenced them from afar.  We are responsible for what they do,  to a fair degree,  for what we've done,  and what we didn't do to help them along the journey.

Call it religion differences,  philosophical differences, or just plain rivalry,  but we were adversaries in our minds,  and took that stance against them.  In a combative world of fear.

 

So as much as we are connected Now,  we always were,  even if we thought differently.  Modern technology only shows it more apparently. 

We all share a very small rock...  with other Life.

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