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A Day at the Races

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Just watched the fourth race at Caulfield. Fantastic run from a horse called Sistine Demon. Set a frantic pace and hung on to run 3rd at a SP of 50/1. Really worth following especially with a name like that.

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Think one of the Payne girls usually rides that? I always look out for it....always puts in.

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WINX going around again today, going for number 21. She will go past Sunlines 14 group 1 wins if she salutes today. These horses dont come along very often, if at all!

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Caulfield Cup Day 2017.   Inference - Harlem - Humidor - Bonneval

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On 10/7/2017 at 2:37 PM, Wadda We Sing said:

WINX going around again today, going for number 21. She will go past Sunlines 14 group 1 wins if she salutes today. These horses dont come along very often, if at all!

Winx should win by 6 lengths tomorrow too ... a mate of mine likes the 2 roughies (Kaspersky & Hardham) to feature in the race for the minor placings. 

I doubt whether I'll have a bet in the race but if Winx somehow manages to not win, the 'first 4' could pay a bundle. 

How was that Caulfield cup first 4 dividend?  The hidden Hayes horse strikes again. 

 

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13 hours ago, Macca said:

Winx should win by 6 lengths tomorrow too ... a mate of mine likes the 2 roughies (Kaspersky & Hardham) to feature in the race for the minor placings. 

I doubt whether I'll have a bet in the race but if Winx somehow manages to not win, the 'first 4' could pay a bundle. 

How was that Caulfield cup first 4 dividend?  The hidden Hayes horse strikes again. 

 

Yeah Mr Hayes has certainly come back from nowhere a few years ago. DK Weir continues to impress. Has Humidor and Galileo Chop in the big race. Yes Winx should win by 6 and you can get 6/1 on 10 lengths! Hey Doc getting up in the Manikato  last night continues the trend of outsiders getting up in the big races. I think the trend might end to day though. This ones a freak.

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So what is considered the best WFA race in the world these days for the classic mile and a half.

Is it the Arc de Triomphe, the Laurel international or the Dubai race (forget the name) or the Cox Plate.

Cannot really see the Cox plate ever being at the top because of the flight times to Australia and our quarantine rules.

Seems that Winx is on a hiding to nothing today. The field is weak according to the pundits. Hope she wins.

Cheers

Edited by Diamond_Jim
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1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah Mr Hayes has certainly come back from nowhere a few years ago. DK Weir continues to impress. Has Humidor and Galileo Chop in the big race. Yes Winx should win by 6 and you can get 6/1 on 10 lengths! Hey Doc getting up in the Manikato  last night continues the trend of outsiders getting up in the big races. I think the trend might end to day though. This ones a freak.

The only worry for Winx might be interference but the field is down to 8 now.  It's a race for 2nd & 3rd for the rest.  There's 440k up for grabs for 2nd place which easily covers the total acceptance fees of $30,590. 

Even 8th place receives 100k ... and conveniently,  there are only 8 runners. 

Winx should win easing up - 10 lengths is a stretch but you never know. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Macca said:

The only worry for Winx might be interference but the field is down to 8 now.  It's a race for 2nd & 3rd for the rest.  There's 440k up for grabs for 2nd place which easily covers the total acceptance fees of $30,590. 

Even 8th place receives 100k ... and conveniently,  there are only 8 runners. 

Winx should win easing up - 10 lengths is a stretch but you never know. 

 

Yeah it would be harder now for them to gang up on her i guess. Thats a pretty good prize for last place!

I notice they give Winx a rating of 132.....well it would have to be 132 out of 132 would it? She aint done a real lot wrong!

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9 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah it would be harder now for them to gang up on her i guess. Thats a pretty good prize for last place!

I notice they give Winx a rating of 132.....well it would have to be 132 out of 132 would it? She aint done a real lot wrong!

I still remember Bill Collins proclaiming that "Kingston Town can't win" ... it duly flew home and won!  Won 3 Cox Plates all up so Winx would be joining exalted company if she wins today.

I've been to the Cox Plate a few times but have always gone to the trouble of getting decent seats.  Saw Northerly & Sunline win

 

Edited by Macca
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2 hours ago, Macca said:

I still remember Bill Collins proclaiming that "Kingston Town can't win" ... it duly flew home and won!  Won 3 Cox Plates all up so Winx would be joining exalted company if she wins today.

I've been to the Cox Plate a few times but have always gone to the trouble of getting decent seats.  Saw Northerly & Sunline win

 

Wow!! ....Sunline was my favourite horse for ever......so dependable. Dr Turf was just saying on the radio, because of her 132 rating, if she ran in a Melbourne Cup She wuld have to carry 63.5.

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2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

So what is considered the best WFA race in the world these days for the classic mile and a half.

Is it the Arc de Triomphe, the Laurel international or the Dubai race (forget the name) or the Cox Plate.

Cannot really see the Cox plate ever being at the top because of the flight times to Australia and our quarantine rules.

Seems that Winx is on a hiding to nothing today. The field is weak according to the pundits. Hope she wins.

Cheers

Found this link ... Weight For Age Championships: The Best Global WFA Events By Region

For the reasons you've outlined,  I'm not sure we'll ever see a truly world class field in the Cox Plate.  Other incentives could be introduced but that would almost certainly involve some hefty dollars.

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48 minutes ago, Macca said:

Found this link ... Weight For Age Championships: The Best Global WFA Events By Region

For the reasons you've outlined,  I'm not sure we'll ever see a truly world class field in the Cox Plate.  Other incentives could be introduced but that would almost certainly involve some hefty dollars.

Thanks for the link Maca.

I see the Laurel is no longer run being overtaken by the Breeders Cup.

Interesting to see what is the next race Winx is set for assuming she wins today.

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10 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Thanks for the link Macca.

I see the Laurel is no longer run being overtaken by the Breeders Cup.

Interesting to see what is the next race Winx is set for assuming she wins today.

It seems there are big plans ahead DJ ... Cox Plate a Winx farewell to Melbourne?

According to Chris Waller ...

Quote

"I would say one possibly two more in Sydney and then down to Melbourne for her grand final which is the Cox Plate,"

"And then after that I would say she'd come back in the autumn - all going well - and have a few runs in Sydney then we probably owe it to the world to take her over there and have a shot in England."

The overseas tilt with Winx is likely to be for Group 1 races at the Royal Ascot Carnival such as the Prince Of Wales's Stakes (2000m) and Queen Anne Stakes (1600m) in the middle of next year.

 

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Interesting  Macca

those two English races are not on the classics list ... the English Classic (King George VI) is 2400 metres so I assume she likes it a little shorter.

Surprised that she is missing the Dubai Cup at US$10M which is 2000 metres.

Oh to have such choices !

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29 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Interesting  Macca

those two English races are not on the classics list ... the English Classic (King George VI) is 2400 metres so I assume she likes it a little shorter.

Surprised that she is missing the Dubai Cup at US$10M which is 2000 metres.

Oh to have such choices !

Humidor might have won if it didn't hang in late ... but when you're chasing a champion horse that can happen. 

Edit: Bowman just said Winx kicked again when threatened so maybe a bit of both. 

Was a good race and an exciting finish all the same. 

2000 is her distance down to 1600 so the 2 English races targeted makes sense.

 

Edited by Macca

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9 Group races on Saturday (Derby day) ... the best betting day on the calendar. 

I'll be doing the form on Friday night in a comprehensive way with a view to finding some first 4 combinations. 

3 horses to win,  5 horses to come second & third with 7 horses to come fourth is my usual multiple combination. 

It used to be 3,  5 & 5 for trifectas but the lure of the big dividends for a first 4 is too strong. 

 @Wadda We Sing  @Diamond_Jim  @ProperDee @Toorak... got any ideas,  suggestions or tips? 

Edited by Macca
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Hi Macca.  I have owned 5 racehorses over the years. 4 in Melbourne and 1up here in Brisbane.  My punting days go back to the time when the ladies in the TAB’s around Melbourne hand wrote the tickets! I really don’t have a bet very often nowadays but do enjoy lashing out at this time of the year.  

Gee, those First 4’s are hard but as you said, the potential dividends are huge.  I have a good mate that boxes 2x4xFxF but only for a low percentage. He often jags a decent return because he leaves the favourite right out of selections 1and 2.

What I have noticed over the years watching Spring Carnivals is that horses that finished 1st or 2nd at their most recent start, regardless of where that may have been, figure prominently in most races.  Moreso than at the average race meeting.  Of course, often there are quite a few runners in a race with that form, sometimes not so many.  I have had some good results by basing trifectas and particularly quinellas, around them.

Off to get my copy of the Sportsman now and will drop some selections for tomorrow in later. I already like Shillelagh in whichever race it goes round in. Huge run last start.

Cheers

PD

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10 hours ago, Macca said:

9 Group races on Saturday (Derby day) ... the best betting day on the calendar. 

I'll be doing the form on Friday night in a comprehensive way with a view to finding some first 4 combinations. 

3 horses to win,  5 horses to come second & third with 7 horses to come fourth is my usual multiple combination. 

It used to be 3,  5 & 5 for trifectas but the lure of the big dividends for a first 4 is too strong. 

 @Wadda We Sing  @Diamond_Jim  @ProperDee @Toorak... got any ideas,  suggestions or tips? 

 

1 hour ago, ProperDee said:

Hi Macca.  I have owned 5 racehorses over the years. 4 in Melbourne and 1up here in Brisbane.  My punting days go back to the time when the ladies in the TAB’s around Melbourne hand wrote the tickets! I really don’t have a bet very often nowadays but do enjoy lashing out at this time of the year.  

Gee, those First 4’s are hard but as you said, the potential dividends are huge.  I have a good mate that boxes 2x4xFxF but only for a low percentage. He often jags a decent return because he leaves the favourite right out of selections 1and 2.

What I have noticed over the years watching Spring Carnivals is that horses that finished 1st or 2nd at their most recent start, regardless of where that may have been, figure prominently in most races.  Moreso than at the average race meeting.  Of course, often there are quite a few runners in a race with that form, sometimes not so many.  I have had some good results by basing trifectas and particularly quinellas, around them.

Off to get my copy of the Sportsman now and will drop some selections for tomorrow in later. I already like Shillelagh in whichever race it goes round in. Huge run last start.

Cheers

PD

Hi, I'm a bit late to the party and just started discovering other threads.

I thoroughly enjoy horse racing especially this time of year and I'm looking forward to future discussions and thoughts from you.

 

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58 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Hi, I'm a bit late to the party and just started discovering other threads.

I thoroughly enjoy horse racing especially this time of year and I'm looking forward to future discussions and thoughts from you.

 

I sometimes get a good tip from a mate D77 but I wouldn't ever trust my own tips!

However, I've sometimes done ok with a parlay place bet (pick 4)  ... gotta really study the form though.

 

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30 minutes ago, Macca said:

I sometimes get a good tip from a mate D77 but I wouldn't ever trust my own tips!

However, I've sometimes done ok with a parlay place bet (pick 4)  ... gotta really study the form though.

 

Cheers Macca, Derby day is my favourite and like you mentioned best betting day on the calendar. 

I owned a few horses myself but sold out about two years ago. A friend in Sydney stayed in and needless to say those horses ended up multiple city winners.

He gets some tips from the Waterhouse camp but no success lately. 

ProperDee mentioned  horses that have finished top two in their most recent starts figure prominently and that's a pattern I have followed lately.

I can't wait for the tribe to go to bed tonight, a lot of reading to do.

Edited by Demon77
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Never bought into race horses although I've had a few opportunities to do so (part owner only!)

I do have a first cousin who was a high profile bookmaker though ... retired now.  We share the same way of thinking - percentage plays,  analysis,  probability factors etc. 

Bookies can do well unless they're not totally switched on.  As for us punters,  we need a good dose of luck just to break even.

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I have had a bit of a study today and come up with a few at Flemington.  I am not a fan of favourite runners (although there is great value tomorrow if you are).

Race 1 - 12 Almighty,  Race 4 - 6 Vengeur Masque Race 5 - 6 Jukebox,  Race 7 - 11 Ocean's Fourteen, Race 8 - 9 Shillelagh.

I will also have a go at Lola's Diamond on the Gold Coast, Race 3 - 6 and Monteaux at Doomben, Race 3 - 3.

Good luck fellas.

Cheers

PD

 

 

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Decided on trifecta's in the end.  I'm feeling lucky - I've got a few of your tips included@ProperDee so here's hoping.  Thanks for the heads up on the 2 tips in QLD.  A trifecta @ Doomben race 3 looms large.

For what it's worth I'm also going to parlay up 4 races (each way on each selection)  All 4 horses will run close to being favourite but I just reckon all 4 should be in the finish.  But it's buyer beware ladies & gentlemen ... I'm often the world's worst tipster.

Race 2 no.1 Bring Me Roses

Race 3 no.5 Nieta (now there's an omen)

Race 7 no.1 Ace High

Race 8 no.1 Tosen Stardom

 

Good punting to all

Mac

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

Edited by Macca
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Main Stage in the Derby is part owned by Dusty and a few other Richmond boys. 

I won't be backing it because I don't do Richmond well but everything they touch has turned to gold this year especially Mr Main Stage himself.

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