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The History of 0 and 2

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Demonland Legend

Demonland   70,326

Posted
Posted

Don't shoot the messenger.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/collingwood/collingwood-melbourne-essendon-under-pressure-ahead-of-round-2-as-they-look-to-put-season-back-on-track/news-story/e85cbe002143010f47c2391472239e8b

The heat is on a host of highly-fancied sides heading into Round 2, as history shows teams that lose their first two games rarely make finals.

Since 2010, 49 teams have made 0-2 starts to the season.

Only three of those — or a measly 6.5 per cent — have finished in the top-eight at season’s end, being Collingwood (2018) and Sydney (2017 and 2014)

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Die Hard Demon Mighty Demon

Die Hard Demon   1,213

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Well considering pies made the granny last year.. I'd be more than happy to take a 0 - 2 start if it meant the same result. 

But unlike the Pies last year, we have a much tougher draw. So i'd be genuinely concerned if we don't win this weekend.

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beelzebub Legend

beelzebub   23,200

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13 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Don't shoot the messenger.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/collingwood/collingwood-melbourne-essendon-under-pressure-ahead-of-round-2-as-they-look-to-put-season-back-on-track/news-story/e85cbe002143010f47c2391472239e8b

The heat is on a host of highly-fancied sides heading into Round 2, as history shows teams that lose their first two games rarely make finals.

Since 2010, 49 teams have made 0-2 starts to the season.

Only three of those — or a measly 6.5 per cent — have finished in the top-eight at season’s end, being Collingwood (2018) and Sydney (2017 and 2014)

Funny you bring this up. It was brought to my attention halfway through the last quarter.

It really doesn't bode well. Lose two and it's catch up footy and invariably an awkward percentage gap.

Can't lose this week.

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ArtificialWisdom Redleg

ArtificialWisdom   4,044

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There's no reason to panic if we lose this week. I think we need to scrape our way to 3-3 then we'll be ok. Essendon, Sydney, St Kilda games are going to be the must wins. From there we can still build a strong season. If we win this week or the Richmond game that's a bonus.

Having said that I still think that Kadina Park suits us because it's so skinny. Port exposed us on the spread. That is much more difficult in Geelong without the width. A win this week would not be a shock. The only question if we can win contested footy, If we do that we win.

 

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Lucifers Hero Legend

Lucifers Hero   38,985

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A bit of scaremongering in that article!

What it doesn't say is Sydney were 0-6 after round 6 in 2017 but made the 8 being 6th on the ladder at round 23 with a Home final!  I'll take that any day of the week.

A lot didn't work on Saturday and we were outgunned, outsmarted and outplayed.  Coaches will make changes in tactics and players.  Things will get a lot better for us.  Keep the faith, folks. 

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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Sir Why You Little Legend

Sir Why You Little   36,670

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Being kept scoreless in a final Quarter on our home ground is very serious

We have problems that us mere supporters don’t know about. 

I will reserve my judgement till Rounds 5-6, but we had better play with a killer attitude next week or else this year will be another nothing season. 

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beelzebub Legend

beelzebub   23,200

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1 hour ago, Wiseblood said:

Not much in that.  We've come back from 0-3 before and made finals, so losing this weekend doesn't worry me in the slightest (unless we lose very badly).

I thought this year wasn't about making finals...I thought it was about making THE final.

 

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hemingway Redleg

hemingway   7,615

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

I thought this year wasn't about making finals...I thought it was about making THE final.

 

Oh give me the off season any day, where we have our hopes, dreams and expectations, so much better than the cold reality of defeat and pessimism. 

One game in and I am sick already of the footy media, pundits, ex-players, second rate journos spruiking their half baked opinions and angles on the game and the fortunes of clubs. I am already in shut down mode on all the external stuff. 

Edited by hemingway
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beelzebub Legend

beelzebub   23,200

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12 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Well, to make THE final, we need to make the finals first.

Obviously

My reference of course was to what the expectations are.

Just playing finals ?... That's a fail for mine.

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Wiseblood Legend

Wiseblood   24,637

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9 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Obviously

My reference of course was to what the expectations are.

Just playing finals ?... That's a fail for mine.

Expectation for us would definitely be to at least make a Grand Final, especially after last year.

It doesn't hurt to continue to make the finals, though.  I'm not saying I'd be satisfied by that, but all the indications are that with the pre-season we've had, we might take time to get going, and thus we may not finish high enough on the ladder (say, finish 7-8) to have a real tilt at it this year.

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beelzebub Legend

beelzebub   23,200

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1 minute ago, Wiseblood said:

Expectation for us would definitely be to at least make a Grand Final, especially after last year.

It doesn't hurt to continue to make the finals, though.  I'm not saying I'd be satisfied by that, but all the indications are that with the pre-season we've had, we might take time to get going, and thus we may not finish high enough on the ladder (say, finish 7-8) to have a real tilt at it this year.

Il completely concur I feared it might take a month to really get going. That said I'm not enthralled to see players cooked half through the first quarter of the first game and held scoreless in the last.

There's a bit of a chasm between struggling a bit....and abysmal.

I believe you'll need to be top4 with some hefty home advantages in finals to lift the cup.

I'm not visualising it currently.

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praha Legend

praha   11,131

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Nothing stat. A better insight would be the finishing position of the season prior of the teams that start 0-2. How many are actually bound for, expected to and/or have goals set to realistically play finals?

The reason so few teams that start 0-2 make finals is because most teams that start 0-2 just aren't very good and were never playing finals to begin with. The teams that have started 0-2 and ended up making it, were expected to and always were going to play finals. 

Really, is starting 0-2 any worse than starting 1-2, and then losing by 70 points and 50 points like we did last year vs Hawks and then Richmond?

It's selective analysis at its best.

 

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Supermercado Redleg

Supermercado   2,784

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3 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

A bit of scaremongering in that article!

What it doesn't say is Sydney were 0-6 after round 6 in 2017 but made the 8 being 6th on the ladder at round 23 with a Home final!  I'll take that any day of the week.

A lot didn't work on Saturday and we were outgunned, outsmarted and outplayed.  Coaches will make changes in tactics and players.  Things will get a lot better for us.  Keep the faith, folks. 

One team in 120 years coming back from a 0-6 start isn't much of a comfort. May as well say West Coast came back from 0-1 to win the flag last year so start queuing for Grand Final tickets now.

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beelzebub Legend

beelzebub   23,200

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1 hour ago, dl4e said:

Didn't we make the finals in 06 being 0-4 ?

We won round 4

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DV8 Trident

DV8   2,271

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12 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

A bit of scaremongering in that article!

What it doesn't say is Sydney were 0-6 after round 6 in 2017 but made the 8 being 6th on the ladder at round 23 with a Home final!  I'll take that any day of the week.

A lot didn't work on Saturday and we were outgunned, outsmarted and outplayed.  Coaches will make changes in tactics and players.  Things will get a lot better for us.  Keep the faith, folks. 

Most of the AFL stats were during a very unequal competition.  These days the comp is becoming very even, so much of those stats are just redundant.

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