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THE ROAR MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS

JAG001
in Melbourne Demons

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Posted
Finger FMI Average Ranking
A cut above the rest
Richmond 1.672 1.589 1.518 1.491 1.568 1
Legitimate competition
Melbourne 0.984 0.836 0.979 0.787 0.896 2
West Coast 0.820 0.976 0.808 0.898 0.875 3
Geelong 0.732 0.855 0.819 0.903 0.827 4
Collingwood 0.798 0.753 0.782 0.601 0.734 5
Semi-legitimate competition
GWS Giants 0.760 0.567 0.648 0.564 0.635 6
Sydney 0.333 0.502 0.358 0.998 0.548 7
Splashing about at sea level
Port Adelaide 0.208 0.325 0.259 0.479 0.318 8
Hawthorn 0.208 0.214 0.451 0.310 0.296 9
Essendon 0.230 0.362 0.181 -0.019 0.189 10
Adelaide 0.093 0.288 -0.047 0.342 0.169 11
North Melbourne -0.268 -0.121 0.047 -0.045 -0.097 12
Below average, but respectably so
Brisbane 0.109 -0.641 -0.264 -0.675 -0.368 13
St Kilda -0.770 -0.790 -0.596 -0.850 -0.752 14
Fremantle -0.940 -0.948 -0.886 -0.935 -0.927 15
Western Bulldogs -1.224 -1.069 -1.187 -0.983 -1.115 16
Witness protection program
Gold Coast -1.743 -1.617 -1.762 -1.989 -1.778 17
Carlton -2.301 -2.082 -2.109 -1.846 -2.084 18
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    So we are ranked second best chance for the flag, yet we may not even make the finals.

    Its really going to hurt if we miss again.  We could have done some damage in last years finals too.

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    am i retarded because i don't understand the table or is the table confusing?

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    As there is no explanation to what the figures mean or represent it is just numbers, that looks like we’re 2nd best but 60% behind Tigers.

    what is FMI?

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    From the article:

    “On the chart below, I’ve translated all those numbers from the first list into standard deviations, so we can compare them across the four rating systems. Zero means the team is exactly on the average rating. Positive numbers indicate ratings above the mean and negative indicate teams below the mean.”

    https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/07/25/math-geeks-guide-true-afl-ladder/

     

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    Surely Richmond can’t be that far ahead?

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    Thanks for the link radar detector, provides some context.

    Four points this weekend means more!

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    What hope do Carlton have if they are in witness protection yet Channel 7 keeps telling us where they are on Friday nights.

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    • Haha 9
    58 minutes ago, D4Life said:

    Thanks for the link radar detector, provides some context.

    Four points this weekend means more!

    Enlightening perspective from the tables. SD is a good measure representing a team's recorded aptitudes (positives).

    It just amazes me that whilst Richmond is deservedly 'at the top' on the 'aptitude' scale, the MFC is a clear second in its performances this year without the 'wins on the board' that the latter is obviously due. However, an overlay of the reasons why we are struggling relative to other teams is needed for that vital information which explains and/or demonstrates our actual likelihood of not making deep progress into the finals.

    As I harp on about umpiring and officially organised results of games before players even step onto the ground, my conviction of this occurrence is strongly supported by evidence of this nature not published (or pursued) in this statistical offering or in any allegedly official, honest evaluation of the games that are played in this AFL competition. 

    The evidence stems only from an observational perspective of the conduct of game after game, game after game. Team strengths, aptitudes and game dominance tendencies are measured in such statistical analyses; the power of intended outcomes is only observational and highlights the dreaded evidence of an uneven playing field where umpiring opportunities consistently overturn such aptitude evidence into outcomes of game loss - the ugly head of vested interest and distinct preference - for hidden reasons - is reared.

    Explain that, AFL!

     

    Edited by Deemania since 56

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    • Like 1

    Title should say raw rather than roar (unless the stats are only related to the lions and tigers who both enjoy a good roar from time to time)

    Edited by —coach—

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    Go to the AFL ladder, order by percentage and you get a pretty similar looking list... But it's all looking good for the future given our list demographic but unfortunately the wins (or lack thereof) is all that really matters.

    I think we all know we are a very capable side, but capable is all. Until we prove otherwise we only have potential and some pretty numbers

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    • Like 1

    1 hour ago, small but forward said:

    What the F does Pythagoras know about football anyway?

    I think he played half forward for Athens against Sparta ?

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    2 hours ago, —coach— said:

    Title should say raw rather than roar (unless the stats are only related to the lions and tigers who both enjoy a good roar from time to time)

    The Roar is the website that the article was taken from. 

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    • Thanks 1
    1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    I think he played half forward for Athens against Sparta ?

    A terrific little goal sneak too. The only player in that team who doesn't struggle kicking goals from an angle.

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    We would be the best team ever to miss finals if we choked from here.

    9 hours ago, MurDoc516 said:

    am i retarded because i don't understand the table or is the table confusing?

    A little from column A and a little from column B.

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    5 hours ago, D4Life said:

    As there is no explanation to what the figures mean or represent it is just numbers, that looks like we’re 2nd best but 60% behind Tigers.

    what is FMI?

    i can work out the first two letters but the I has me stumped

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    • Haha 1
     
    3 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

    What hope do Carlton have if they are in witness protection yet Channel 7 keeps telling us where they are on Friday nights.

    They're  'in-need-of'  witness protection, as they're fans will want bloods soon.

     

    The Swans better beware, of another raid from the blues.

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