Run home to Finals - 2018

[loges 6,767]

1 hour ago, Jones said:

If we win 1 of the next 3 games we will finish 8th.

If we win 2, we will finish 5th.

We need to win all 3 to be top 4.

If we lose all 3 we won't be playing finals.

Note: This is all assuming the favourites win, which at this time of the year they usually do

Thats good because we are a strong favourite with sportsbet at the moment for this weeks game.

[Pates 9,697]

3 hours ago, Jones said:

If we win 1 of the next 3 games we will finish 8th.

If we win 2, we will finish 5th.

We need to win all 3 to be top 4.

If we lose all 3 we won't be playing finals.

Note: This is all assuming the favourites win, which at this time of the year they usually do

Hopefully there’ll be some upsets just to throw things up as well. But I think that’s a simple likely scenario. 

Its tough to call, I can see us winning all three and I can see us losing all three, it’s so tight. 

[Chook 15,069]

Just did a ladder, so it's official:

Win 0 and we're 11th
Win 1 and we're 7th
Win 2 and we're 4th
Win 3 and we're 2nd

…massive stakes with every win.

Edited August 6, 2018 by Chook

[JV7 2,375]

Port vs  West Coast this week is interesting... If we win out we'd want Port to win so we can jump WC but if we drop 1 it's better for WC to beat Port, unsure who to barrack for!

FWIW I think we'll finish 5th. We'll go 2-1 in the remaining 3

Edited August 6, 2018 by JV7

[bobby1554 1,275]

3 hours ago, DemonWheels said:

We were on similar odds heading into the last few rounds last year. We found a way to screw that up so I can’t take any guidance from them.

Yeah, but we are a way better side now. First team to 2000 points for, by a mile

[Engorged Onion 10,226]

Nice one @bobby1554 - you forced me to do some quick sums

Over the 19 rounds thus far

we are 8.32 points per game (1 and a bit goals) behind Richmond in conceding (who are first in this field)

we are 9.05 points per game ahead of Richmond in scoring (who are the 2nd in this field)

As Goodwin says..we're not far off it - and considering the depth of experience of their core players (5-7 more years of experience compared to ours) and particularly since 2017 - Richmonds group of Rance, Martin Cotchin and a few others have missed perhaps 1 game each)...again compared to Hogan, Gawn, Viney, Tmac etc  -  we are delivering rather rather rather well.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Like others, I have done some ladder predicting, but mine is obviously spot on, so here goes...

0 wins = 10th = No Finals

1 win = 7th = Finals

2 wins = 5th = Home Elimination Final

3 wins = 2nd = Home Qualifying Final

[titan_uranus 25,255]

The strangeness of this season is evident in my thoughts on this week's game.

I feel that if we win, we're every chance to run the table and win all three. But I simultaneously feel like if we lose, we're every chance to lose all three.

If we win, we'll have won 5 out of 6, we'll have released significant pressure in beating a finals contender and a side we haven't beaten in 7 years, and we'll also be nearly-locked in for finals. I can see us taking that confidence, and without the ongoing pressure to qualify for finals, going to Perth and knocking off a Naitanui/Gaff/Kennedy-less West Coast. If we do that, I can see us taking that momentum through to GWS.

If we lose, we'll slip down to the bottom of the 8. We'll be level with North and probably Geelong (i.e. only % out of 10th). We won't have confirmed our finals spot and then the trip to Perth suddenly takes on huge meaning: lose it, and we'll be doing the whole "need to win Round 23" thing again. 

I just have so much riding on this week's game.

10 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

Not really:

• North and Geelong win all 3
• 2 of Port, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Sydney win 2

7 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

For accuracy I believe we miss on 13 wins if ANY 5 of the following 6 occur:

• North wins all 3
• Geelong wins all 3
• Hawthorn wins 2
• Collingwood wins 2
• Port wins 2
• Sydney wins 2

Because that puts them on 14 wins.

I wouldn't be calling any of this "probable", though.

If Geelong wins all three, Hawthorn has to beat Sydney. But if Hawthorn beats Sydney, Sydney has to beat us and GWS (at Spotless). Alternatively if Port wins two they have to beat at least one of West Coast and Collingwood at the G.

I think it's far more likely that at least two of the above fail (whether that's Hawthorn losing two, or Port losing two, or Sydney losing two, or North losing one). For us to miss on 13, pretty much every 8-point game has to go against us.

[Demon17 5,262]

11 hours ago, bobby1554 said:

Yeah, but we are a way better side now. First team to 2000 points for, by a mile

And the Eagles game is at the new Optus Stadium which is the exact dimensions as the G, so no surprises like the old WA ground which was narrow.  Should be helpful

[Pates 9,697]

17 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

And the Eagles game is at the new Optus Stadium which is the exact dimensions as the G, so no surprises like the old WA ground which was narrow.  Should be helpful

It’s an interesting one that because Subi really was a massive advantage for Freo and WC due to the unusual dimensions. Making it more like the G takes that side of things away, of course you still have the hostile crowd. 

We were hopeless at footy park vs Adelaide and Port but seem to like Adelaide Oval so far. Hopefully same thing can happen with Perth stadium. 

Edited August 6, 2018 by Pates

[Skuit 10,031]

On 7/30/2018 at 4:41 AM, Demonland said:

The sliding doors nature to the run home is killing me. 2nd or 9th or somewhere in between. Please transport me to the good alternate reality.

I read once that, of course, they produce two sets of 'championship' caps to throw around after the NBA decider. The false winner caps get sent to underprivileged South/Central American communities for charity - where they've since become bizarre alternative reality collector items which fetch obscenely high prices, upsetting the socio-economic equilibrium in these communities. Humans are strange.

[Deemania since 56 6,808]

17 hours ago, DubDee said:

I do think things will change, i'm just not sure when.  I will celebrate making finals when we get there. We are about 70% there at the moment and could easily miss

Interesting figure, 70%, as you mention, DubDee. It tallies with my (see above) estimation that over the past 2 years - but certainly this year - around 25% of  game outcomes for a Demon win have been taken from us by 'arranged' White Brethren decision-making to affect Demon surges, recoveries within games and dominance during games to the final siren. 

[Watson11 2,252]

 

Optus is the same size as Etihad (Marvel) as well.  These days I prefer that comparison considering we’ve won 7 out of 8 in the last 2 years at Marvel (versus 10 out of 22 at the G). Just shows there is no reason for our poor record at the G

 

 

[Demonstone 23,569]

1 hour ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Interesting figure, 70%, as you mention, DubDee. It tallies with my (see above) estimation that over the past 2 years - but certainly this year - around 25% of  game outcomes for a Demon win have been taken from us by 'arranged' White Brethren decision-making to affect Demon surges, recoveries within games and dominance during games to the final siren. 

You forgot to mention Elvis behind the grassy knoll causing 9/11 at the AFL's direction to distract from the faked moon landing.

[sue 9,277]

2 minutes ago, demonstone said:

You forgot to mention Elvis behind the grassy knoll causing 9/11 at the AFL's direction to distract from the faked moon landing.

While not defending Deemania's mania, the probability of actual 'conspiracies' and dubious dollar-driven behaviour by the AFL is far higher than anything NASA or Elvis could muster.   

[bandicoot 1,395]

2 hours ago, Demon17 said:

And the Eagles game is at the new Optus Stadium which is the exact dimensions as the G, so no surprises like the old WA ground which was narrow.  Should be helpful

It’s not the exact dimensions of the G... it’s closer to Etihad 

[SFebes 4,884]

6 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

It’s not the exact dimensions of the G... it’s closer to Etihad 

Field of play dimensions is 165m along the east-west axis and 130m on the north-south axis. This is slightly shorter than Domain Stadium (Subiaco Oval) but aligned with the MCG, which is 160m x 141m.

[Deemania since 56 6,808]

56 minutes ago, demonstone said:

You forgot to mention Elvis behind the grassy knoll causing 9/11 at the AFL's direction to distract from the faked moon landing.

You're correct I didn't mention it, considering that it was irrelevant to the point discussed. Sorry.

[bandicoot 1,395]

21 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

Field of play dimensions is 165m along the east-west axis and 130m on the north-south axis. This is slightly shorter than Domain Stadium (Subiaco Oval) but aligned with the MCG, which is 160m x 141m.

Optus Stadium - 165m - 130m

Etihad Stadium - 160m - 129m

MCG - 161m - 138m

The width of the ground is exactly like etihad. We play well on narrow grounds. I’m backing us in to win this 

 

[What 18,810]

Jack Viney back for our first final.. if we get there.

http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2018-08-07/first-week-of-finals-still-vineys-aim

[SFebes 4,884]

17 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Optus Stadium - 165m - 130m

Etihad Stadium - 160m - 129m

MCG - 161m - 138m

The width of the ground is exactly like etihad. We play well on narrow grounds. I’m backing us in to win this 

 

They're all pretty similar TBH. 2m diff either end and 4m either wing.

[leucopogon 1,519]

Lets face it, we've been the ultimate flat track bully side of the comp this year. I'm not reading too much into how much we've scored because most of that has been in the smashing of teams below us. I'm severely concerned that we have fallen at every hurdle against harder teams (maybe excepting the Adelaide away win). I'm extremely worried that we go 0-3 in the last three rounds and miss finals. This week is the ultimate put up or shut up game for the Dees.

[Dee tention 619]

I’ve got the Dees winning there last three games to finish 2nd and play West Coast at the G in the first final.

I have West Coast winning one of there last three and it ain’t against the Dees!

[Graeme Yeats' Mullet 6,791]

There's a little bit of getting ahead of yourselves here people...

We need to win 2 to be guaranteed a finals an none of them are easy (Gellong beating Hawthorn will hurt our chances)

As Goody said: let's just focus on the next challenge, the ladder will take care of itself

[radar 1,867]

Shades of 87!for me. 

I was away then and away now. 

87 saw Saints beat us at Waverley- last time I saw Robbie - and incidentally last game ever for Peter Moore and a few others. 

Monday after, I fly to UK - we win the next 6 including Western Oval. 

No internet or mobiles in 1987. 

I’m watching from afar now and hoping this does not go down to the wire in R23. Better check who Cats are playing at Kardinia Park for trivia buffs.