GAMEDAY - Round 14

[praha 11,266]

Tonight actually determines if we're top 4 or just a top 8 team. Not the end of the world if we lose but we definitely want to win if we have hopes for a top 4 finish.

[Willmoy1947 4,244]

6 hours ago, small but forward said:

We need to rethink our strategy of more Friday night games.

im not going to get any work done today checking this thread.

I'll post in a few minutes, in the meantime cogitate on brown paper bags......

[Gorgoroth 13,205]

7 hours ago, SFebey said:

If Port play like they did last week I think we’ll win, if they play like they did v Tigers I think we’ll lose. I don’t think they’re as good as the media beat up but then again neither are we as we’ve beaten no one.

I was confident before I saw the changes, the outs I’m happy with but think we may be monstered down back. No small forward either on a potential dewy night, whereas I would’ve brought in Garlett. Should be one of the games of the year, go dees.

Pretty much exactly what my thoughts were.

6 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

Reckon we're a sneaky chance.  The first 15 minutes will tell us plenty - if we allow Port too much room and let them win it out of the middle then we're in big trouble.  Rectify this and put some pressure on and we can win it.

First 15 minutes tell us the game normally, first 5 usually tells us plenty.

But if it’s good it takes me until about the final siren to believe we are a chance ?

[Willmoy1947 4,244]

4 hours ago, hemingway said:

Be brave, full Dees kit. Half the fun. In the old days, we would always go into enemy territory with the full kit, and I can tell you, the ferals in those days make today’s ferals look like bashful gentlemen. 

Ahh....Windy Hill and Vic Park, my nostrils a quiver............

[Willmoy1947 4,244]

3 hours ago, timbo said:

I really would like to know if there's a data set containing teams playing, frees for against, umpires in game, frees awarded by umpire to which team and for what and what quarter and where the game is. Then apply a bit of analysis to see if there's any correlation between umpires and teams. 

 

Anyone aware are of any such data? Anyone here with any R or equivalent experience? Happy to have a play with the data but only new to stats and machine learning 

Try AFL House

[DemonLad5 1,642]

1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

We’re 6 - 0 away from the MCG this year.

We’re 3 - 0 at the new Adelaide Oval. We accounted for Port twice last season from memory.

We’re 2 - 4 at the MCG this season.

On those facts, I’ll back us in to win tonight. Ironically if it was at the G you’d tip Port. We need to  learn to play our home ground or we’re ever going to get anywhere come finals time!

Dees by 11 points.

3-1 at Adelaide oval 

[george_on_the_outer 7,855]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Pretty obvious move for mine. We've lost the stoppages convincingly in the last few weeks, so Tyson's clearance strengths will contribute to our midfield and his weakness of lack of foot speed won't get shown up given Port's slower midfielder.

Tyson replaced Spargo, so how does he play in the middle?  We haven't lost getting our hands on the ball, it has been the lack of outside run.  That is where Collingwood cut us up, and unless it it addressed so Port will cut us up. 

 

Edited June 22, 2018 by george_on_the_outer

[Adam The God 30,657]

22 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

Tyson replaced Spargo, so how does he play in the middle?  We haven't lost getting our hands on the ball, it has been the lack of outside run.  That is where Port will cut us up. 

 

I reckon Harmes will play on the outside. Maybe on a wing. Otherwise, Jones goes to half back or the wing.

Harmes' strengths are working hard and getting into good position to receive. He's improved on his tackling and contested work this year, but he should be utilised on the outside IMO.

[FireInTheBennelly 4,104]

1 hour ago, willmoy said:

Try AFL House

Exactly. The umps are just following orders. One only needs to see what happened after Razor took complete control of our match a few weeks back. As an employer you reward the staff that follow instructions. Razor got the Friday night game the following week. Job well done son. He was at his arrogant best in that game as well, despite having to carry around a head the size of the Goodyear blimp.

[SFebes 4,884]

I'm sick in the guts, wanting to vomit but the anxiety is telling my brain don't spew. HUGE GAME! Time to hit the frothies.

[Clintosaurus 7,937]

9 minutes ago, FireInTheBelly said:

Exactly. The umps are just following orders. One only needs to see what happened after Razor took complete control of our match a few weeks back. As an employer you reward the staff that follow instructions. Razor got the Friday night game the following week. Job well done son. He was at his arrogant best in that game as well, despite having to carry around a head the size of the Goodyear blimp.

Yep. I reckon City Hall want us in the finals - just not sure where. Top 4 please Gil. 

[Deemania since 56 6,791]

2 hours ago, timbo said:

I'll see if champion have it but it's probably proprietary and or $$

 

be good to fold it into a website "ratetheumpires"

Great idea, but don't expect a forthcoming response - it would remain 'eyes only in confidence'. What would the general public know about it? Don't spend dollars on it either. Not worth the inquiry. Just a bit of fun ... perhaps.

[FireInTheBennelly 4,104]

5 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

Yep. I reckon City Hall want us in the finals - just not sure where. Top 4 please Gil. 

I think you're right, but not sure about the Top 4. It'd be nice to get a Bulldogs Circa 2016 leg up....

[Engorged Onion 10,224]

Am I being provocative if I giggle at the weekly posts for Trac to have a ‘huge game’..? mind I hope he does...

[FireInTheBennelly 4,104]

3 minutes ago, Danelska said:

Am I being provocative if I giggle at the weekly posts for Trac to have a ‘huge game’..? mind I hope he does...

They have to get it right eventually don't they? He's definitely due to rip one apart.

[Deemania since 56 6,791]

6 minutes ago, FireInTheBelly said:

I think you're right, but not sure about the Top 4. It'd be nice to get a Bulldogs Circa 2016 leg up....

The revenues from a GF win probably saved the Doggies...which was a good thing. For the AFL, a cheap way out of a temporary but impending footy club collapse under their watch.They were a great team then, so one never knows.....???

 

23 minutes ago, SFebey said:

I'm sick in the guts, wanting to vomit but the anxiety is telling my brain don't spew. HUGE GAME! Time to hit the frothies.

Have one for me ... I'm going to have a few whiskies before the game at our club where it is $2.50 a double, and my mum taught me to drink in moderation like a gentleman, so I cannot drink from two hands; at once!

Edited June 22, 2018 by Deemania since 56

[DSP 1,488]

33 minutes ago, SFebey said:

I'm sick in the guts, wanting to vomit but the anxiety is telling my brain don't spew. HUGE GAME! Time to hit the frothies.

I shall be joining you come game time.

Have to get home first, cook dinner, put little demon to bed.

Then its time to rip into that Makers Mark.

Hope we turn up this week!

[brendan 3,453]

Into $2.20 on Sportsbet so the punters are having a crack we were $2.60 few days ago 

[SFebes 4,884]

1 minute ago, DSP said:

I shall be joining you come game time.

Have to get home first, cook dinner, put little demon to bed.

Then its time to rip into that Makers Mark.

Hope we turn up this week!

If we dont turn up this week, we deserve to miss finals

[BigFez 1,474]

3 minutes ago, brendan said:

Into $2.20 on Sportsbet so the punters are having a crack we were $2.60 few days ago 

Could get $4 on the tri-bet last night for Dees to win by +15.5.  That's into $3.40 now.  Wonder why all of a sudden we are being backed.  It's only been since this morning.

[DeleteUser 638]

47 minutes ago, FireInTheBelly said:

Exactly. The umps are just following orders. One only needs to see what happened after Razor took complete control of our match a few weeks back. As an employer you reward the staff that follow instructions. Razor got the Friday night game the following week. Job well done son. He was at his arrogant best in that game as well, despite having to carry around a head the size of the Goodyear blimp.

Sure but data plotted out would sure expose it

[shorty 233]

1.Won in the middle tonight.

2.Harmes to Polec(barometer)

3. Let's not concede a goal in the first minute AS I MAY EXPLODE.

4.Reminder to self don't go apesht when the Hoff kicks his 2nd as he always gets two against us.

5.Dont call Ling a stupid wrang ...t!!!!!

Go Dees.

 

[Docs Demons 1,806]

We must improve in middle from the Maggies game. Captains, Jones and Viney need to improve big time and show all that we are capable of winning big games. Good win tonight and we will get more Prime games next year. This is a simple game tonight. We MUST see ball, get ball and deliver ball and a win is ours.

[FireInTheBennelly 4,104]

7 minutes ago, timbo said:

Sure but data plotted out would sure expose it

I did it last year early on the piece, but the laptop I was using fried the hard drive so I no longer have the analysis and I CBF doing it again. It certainly showed there potentially were umpires 'favouring' different teams and vice versa, however there's no real way of knowing without identifying each individual umpires free kicks.

Of the one's I consider the big three, Razor, Pannell and Nicholls, 2 of them were generally involved in negative counts for us, but one of them was definitely a big positive. I thought it was very strange at the time, and I can't remember which one it was.

Like I say I've lost all the stuff, however I do have AFL umpire appointments data from 2015 to an early round last year. I initially asked the AFLUA for it, but they flicked me off to the Victorian Library or something. Thought that was quite odd as well.

[armstrong35 262]

Port are my most hated team. Always have been and always will be. This is a game I want to win. 

Drinks start now. Go Dees!