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Champion Data's 2018 Ladder Predictor

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By Demonland
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Demonland Legend

Demonland   65,201

Posted
Posted

 

CHAMPION DATA’S 2018 PREDICTIONS

TEAM - CHANCE TO MAKE TOP 8 - CHANCE TO FINISH LAST (if above less than 1 per cent)

1. Adelaide Crows - 80 per cent

2. Sydney Swans - 79%

3. Port Adelaide - 76%

4. GWS Giants - 69%

5. Richmond - 65%

6. Geelong Cats - 64%

7. Collingwood - 63%

8. Melbourne - 60%

9. Western Bulldogs - 48% - 2%

10. Essendon - 39% - 3%

11. St Kilda - 38% - 3%

12. West Coast Eagles - 34% - 4%

13. Hawthorn - 26% - 6%

14. Gold Coast Suns - 16% - 11%

15. Carlton - 13% - 14%

16. Fremantle - 13% - 13%

17. Brisbane Lions - 10% - 18%

18. North Melbourne - 9% - 21%

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/what-chance-does-your-afl-club-have-to-play-finals-in-2018-champion-datas-predicted-ladder/news-story/047bd04a782a4b2ac248cba7045929b2?nk=b50b8574857a0709b7d360f7b8617e3a-1519967072

890EF89A-80F8-4970-BAE4-8FDD84DA3650.jpeg

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PaulRB Redleg

PaulRB   5,948

Posted
Posted (edited)

And this was the champion Data predictions for 2017 made in March 2017... with actual finishing spots (deviation from predicted)...

So Champion data...

  • Predicted two teams finishing spots accurately (Port 5th & Brissie last)
  • for the 16 teams they failed to predict accurately their average error was 3.875 spots on ladder out
  • They failed to predict the rise of Essendon (+8), Richmond (+7) and Geelong (+6)
  • They failed to predict the fall of Doggies (-7) and Collingwood (-6)

FULL SIMULATION RESULTS (via Champion Data)

1. GWS Giants - 17.1 wins - 99.2% chance of finals - 4th (-3)

2. Sydney Swans - 14.5 - 89.5% - 6th (-4)

3. Western Bulldogs - 14.4 - 89.3% - 10th (-7)

4. Adelaide Crows - 14.2 - 86% - 1st (-3)

5. Port Adelaide - 13.8 - 82.7% - 5th (0)

6. West Coast Eagles - 13.3 - 75.6% - 8th (-2)

7. Collingwood - 12.4 - 61.5% - 13th (-6)

8. Geelong Cats - 12.4 - 61.1% - 2nd (+6)

9. Hawthorn - 11.6 - 46.6% - 12th (-3)

10. Richmond - 10.4 - 25.4% - 3rd (+7)

11. Fremantle - 10.3 - 25% - 14th (-3)

12. Melbourne - 10.2 - 23.1% - 9th (+3)

13. St Kilda - 9.7 - 17.1% - 11th (+2)

14. Gold Coast Suns - 8.9 - 8.9% - 17th (-3)

15. Essendon - 8.2 - 5.2% - 7th (+8)

16. North Melbourne - 7.6 - 3.1% - 15th (+1)

17. Carlton - 5.5 - 0.2% - 16th (+1)

18. Brisbane Lions - 3.6 - 0% - 18th (0)

Edited by PaulRB
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Mazer Rackham Trident

Mazer Rackham   14,969

Posted
Posted

Here's my champion data prediction.

Coll and Haw swap coaches, and Coll push for the 8, and Haw finish well outside it.

Give Buckley GWS's list and they still finish outside the 8.

"Champion" data could well be "Bloke down the pub" data for all the wisdom it imparts.

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biggestred Redleg

biggestred   4,311

Posted
Posted

Collingwood finished 13th last year giving them an absolute arm chair of a ride in the draw. Brissie freo blues twice, first 8 games at the g (and a good start is always so important) so i think they will perform above how good their list is.

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dl4e Redleg

dl4e   5,585

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Posted
1 hour ago, biggestred said:

Collingwood finished 13th last year giving them an absolute arm chair of a ride in the draw. Brissie freo blues twice, first 8 games at the g (and a good start is always so important) so i think they will perform above how good their list is.

And those 3 sides you states are more than capable of beating the filth.

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Josh Redleg

Josh   1,420

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, PaulRB said:

And this was the champion Data predictions for 2017 made in March 2017... with actual finishing spots (deviation from predicted)...

So Champion data...

  • Predicted two teams finishing spots accurately (Port 5th & Brissie last)
  • for the 16 teams they failed to predict accurately their average error was 3.875 spots on ladder out
  • They failed to predict the rise of Essendon (+8), Richmond (+7) and Geelong (+6)
  • They failed to predict the fall of Doggies (-7) and Collingwood (-6)

FULL SIMULATION RESULTS (via Champion Data)

1. GWS Giants - 17.1 wins - 99.2% chance of finals - 4th (-3)

2. Sydney Swans - 14.5 - 89.5% - 6th (-4)

3. Western Bulldogs - 14.4 - 89.3% - 10th (-7)

4. Adelaide Crows - 14.2 - 86% - 1st (-3)

5. Port Adelaide - 13.8 - 82.7% - 5th (0)

6. West Coast Eagles - 13.3 - 75.6% - 8th (-2)

7. Collingwood - 12.4 - 61.5% - 13th (-6)

8. Geelong Cats - 12.4 - 61.1% - 2nd (+6)

9. Hawthorn - 11.6 - 46.6% - 12th (-3)

10. Richmond - 10.4 - 25.4% - 3rd (+7)

11. Fremantle - 10.3 - 25% - 14th (-3)

12. Melbourne - 10.2 - 23.1% - 9th (+3)

13. St Kilda - 9.7 - 17.1% - 11th (+2)

14. Gold Coast Suns - 8.9 - 8.9% - 17th (-3)

15. Essendon - 8.2 - 5.2% - 7th (+8)

16. North Melbourne - 7.6 - 3.1% - 15thd (+1)

17. Carlton - 5.5 - 0.2% - 16th (+1)

18. Brisbane Lions - 3.6 - 0% - 18th (0)

Wow PaulRB that's impressive, quick mafs

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D4Life Redleg

D4Life   2,301

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Demonland said:

Fixed

It’s fun to speculate, but I can’t recall anyone predicting the Dogs in 16 and Tigers in 17 to win flags. Champion Data love the Magpies but Reid & Cox as key forwards and Dunn & Moore as the key backs, doesn’t sound to flash for me!

To date pre season seems to have gone well, AFLX just a bit of fun, JLT beating North was positive, but best of all is the improvement of Melksham, Harmes, ANB, OMac and Salem to name a few, then pretty clear pre seasons for Max, Hogan, Hibberd and Brayshaw. Lever obviously a strong addition and Fritsch showing great signs.

Even Viney & Jones preseasons really not much different to last year. Tyson preseason still ether than last year.

It feels like we have at least a dozen players who have improved or are better prepared than going into round 1 last year and trying to pick the team for Geelong isn’t easy.

Should be a great year! Hopefully finishing between 3-6!!

 

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