THE EQUATION by Whispering Jack

The equation is really simple now. Win the game and you finish in seventh place and face a trip to either Adelaide or Sydney in the first week of the finals or lose and sweat it out until Sunday night when the result of the West Coast v Adelaide game is known.

It's a situation of the club's own making, the result of a failure to win games against lesser credentialed teams and/or failure to apply the blowtorch when you're in full control in games like Port Adelaide or last week against the Brisbane Lions when the lead was by 32 points at the 5 minute mark of the final quarter.

But it's water under the bridge now and all that stands between Melbourne and the finals is the old arch nemesis in Collingwood.

There are no excuses either.

There's an air of desperation about the Magpies. There's confusion, uncertainty and doubt about the coaching position. Eddie seems to no longer be the golden haired saviour who could be relied upon to find a way to revive their flagging fortunes. The club seems to be on its knees.

The Melbourne injury list appears to be more or less under control, give or take a Jack Viney and a few players who provide depth and for once, the Demons face a side that has far more top players sidelined with injury. Bernie Vince and Jack Watts have both escaped possible suspensions from the weekend's games and Christian Salem is back after doing his penance for a week.

The selectors have available to them, close to the best material to enable them to pick a winning team to lift the club out of the pit of misery it has occupied for more than a decade.

What could possibly go wrong?

THE GAME

Collingwood v Melbourne at MCG Saturday 26 August 2017 at 1.45pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Collingwood 146 wins, Melbourne 83 wins 5 drawn

At the MCG Collingwood 79 wins, Melbourne 63 wins 3 drawn

Last Five Meetings Collingwood 1 win, Melbourne 4 wins

The Coaches Buckley 0 wins, Goodwin 1 win

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel, live at 1.30pm.

Radio - Triple M 3AW ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Collingwood $2.30 to win, Melbourne $1.62 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 15.14.104 defeated Collingwood 15.10.100 at MCG in Round 12, 2017

The Demons were staring defeat in the face at half time when the Magpies held a 23 point lead but they dug deep and turned their game around in the second half. When Jack Watts kicked the sealer, the home crowd erupted.

THE TEAMS

COLLINGWOOD

B: Brayden Maynard, Lynden Dunn, Tyson Goldsack
HB: Jeremy Howe, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp
C: Steele Sidebottom, Taylor Adams, Tom Phillips
HF: Josh Daicos, Darcy Moore, Callum Brown
F: Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox, Will Hoskin-Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy, Josh Thomas, Adam Treloar
I/C: James Aish, Tim Broomhead, Kayle Kirby, Matthew Scharenberg
EMG: Jarryd Blair, Jackson Ramsay, Josh Smith
 
IN: Tyson Goldsack, Brodie Grundy, Kayle Kirby
 
OUT: Jarryd Blair, Josh Smith (omitted), Ben Reid (soreness)

MELBOURNE

B: Michael Hibberd, Oscar McDonald, Neville Jetta 
HB: Nathan Jones, Tom McDonald, Jayden Hunt 
C: Jordan Lewis, Christian Petracca, Christian Salem 
HF: Clayton Oliver, Jesse Hogan  Jake Melksham 
F: Jeff Garlett, Cameron Pedersen, James Harmes 
FOLL: Max Gawn, Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince 
I/C: Angus Brayshaw, Mitch Hannan, Alex Neal-Bullen, Jack Watts 
EMG: Declan Keilty, Corey Maynard, Josh Wagner

IN: Christian Salem, Jack Watts

OUT: Billy Stretch (omitted), Josh Wagner (omitted)

Melbourne and Collingwood are both known for being hard at it, high disposal teams that are usually unable to sustain the pressure for the full 100 minutes of a game. They are therefore inconsistent both between games and within them. 

However, the seventh-placed Demons have everything to fight for in this match while the Magpies are limping towards the line after what has been another disappointing season. They haven't completely given up the fight but they do go into the final-round clash without some of their stars who gave their season a boost soon after these teams met in mid-year. They are missing skipper Scott Pendlebury, Jordan De Goey, Alex Fasolo, Levi Greenwood, Travis Varcoe and Daniel Wells and yet have given some of the top sides plenty of trouble over the past month or so.

Melbourne which has this week selected possibility its strongest possible side bar the injured co-skipper Viney, struggled last week to hold off the bottom side, the Brisbane Lions, and not long ago lost for the second time this year to the other wooden spoon contender, North Melbourne. On that basis, it's a wonder that the Demons are still in contention and if they lose to another team outside the top 8 in Collingwood, then they truly are not yet ready for finals football.

The ruck duel between Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy shapes up as one of prime importance. The Demon midfield and forward line looks capable of besting the Pies, particularly if Jesse Hogan and Cam Pedersen can emulate last week's form and if the Jack Watts of the middle part of the season turns up to play.

There are a lot of ifs in this game but with the equation down to a very simple win or lose scenario, I expect Melbourne to end its finals drought and win by 20 points.

Its game 22... ROUND 23

Relax. We've got this.

Need to get Watts and Salem into the team to add some sublime delivery skill which was an area we were lacking in last week.

Based on prior games, Collingwood need to score over 100 points for them to win. This is something they have done a few times this year, but Melbourne's defence has been pretty solid all year. As long as the midfield holds sway...

Season defining.

Can someone take a nice big placcard with "Success"  on it.

Adams and Co might like to know what that looks like 

Is this our biggest game for the club since 06?

6 minutes ago, GawnWithTheWind said:

Is this our biggest game for the club since 06?

Let's hope Taylor Adams is still a bit dizzy and treloar has a Thursday night bender involving booze, hookers and a goat. Grundy becomes Jewish and can't play on a Saturday and Sidebottom trips on the way to the game. 

Sorry just some thoughts !

Go dees and a big game from petracca !

Because of their pretty good ability to retain the footy in the middle, the Magpies have a tendency to hold possession switching across wings looking for an entry into the 50. If pressed they will bomb it in. If we play an extra mobile tall across CHB we should rebound ok. They also spend their tickets before half time. We do this as well but rekindle efforts in the last.

So in my mind:

• We will be behind at half time and come back late in the 3rd.
• TMac and Omac to roam CHB and have lots of interceptions.
• Hunt and Salem get 20+ possessions feeding off the big Macs.
• Gawn and Tracc to still struggle as they are running out of puff.
• Pederson to be in the best especially in the ruck.
• Gawn to float down and kick a couple.
• Hogan to play more of a decoy.
• Watts on HFF and taking 10+ marks down the wing.

 

 

It's a worry!

Adelaide have cemented a top two finish playing away against a desperate Weagles who just have to win.

Dees come up against a Collingwood side who have been decent without finishing the job. Have they one last push? Melb have lost a bit of their x factor with Garlett, Gawn, Petracca and others down. Salem, Frost and Watts being dropped and Viney hobbling on crutches.

Can we do it? Sure! Will we do it? Mmnn!

2 hours ago, dee-tox said:

It's a worry!

Adelaide have cemented a top two finish playing away against a desperate Weagles who just have to win.

Dees come up against a Collingwood side who have been decent without finishing the job. Have they one last push? Melb have lost a bit of their x factor with Garlett, Gawn, Petracca and others down. Salem, Frost and Watts being dropped and Viney hobbling on crutches.

Can we do it? Sure! Will we do it? Mmnn!

I'm confident Adelaide will do everything they can to win, it's not ideal to go into a finals campaign with 2 losses from previous 2 games they will want to win

5 minutes ago, brendan said:

I'm confident Adelaide will do everything they can to win, it's not ideal to go into a finals campaign with 2 losses from previous 2 games they will want to win

Agree - they'll be fuming they dropped their game last week, especially at home

Umpires this week Debbooy, Rosebury and Parnell

Our destiny is in our players mind.  It isn't going to just happen, in fact Collingwood would love to knock us out of finals, like we would to them.  Essentially we should be sitting on top of the ladder looking at home finals, the 4 games against Fremantle, Hawthorn and North x 2 are the difference between enjoying the last week not caring about the result to hoping like hell our players turn up to play and we win.

Some final round disasters from yesteryear, to make us feel all warm and fuzzy prior to the game:

1998:

Geelong V Essendon, MCG.

Essendon were 12-9 and Geelong were 8-13 which is pretty much the records of Melb and Coll this weekend. Essendon had to win to secure a finals berth. Geelong stunned them by 10 points. Essendon then had to rely on Richmond doing a Richmond and losing to the Dees the next day. Luckily for the Dons, the Wizard kicked 6, took mark of the year, we won by 75 points and Essendon just snuck into finals.

1997:

Melbourne V Fremantle, MCG

Carlton and Freo were on equal wins but Carlton had the slighty better percentage. So if Freo won and Carlton lost (which they did to Richmond) then Freo would replace Brisbane in the finals. Freo were playing the horrible 3 win Melbourne side so it would be a fait accomply for the Dockers right? Wrong as they chocked by 40 points as us Dee fans enjoyed a rare day out. The Dockers missed the finals despite playing the wooden spooners.

1997:

Carlton V Richmond,  Princes Park

The biggest disaster of the 3 by far, which happened on the same day as the Melb V Freo game. All Carlton had to do was look at the scoreboard at 3 qtr time and they would've noticed that Freo were down by 36 points to Melbourne and therefore out of the finals race. Carlton win and they replace Brisbane in the 8. The Blues held a 14 point lead over the Tigers who were in the bottom 4 at the end of 1997 and had Mad Monday on their mind. Yet somehow Carlton produced the biggest choke job you could imagine as the Tigers over-ran them by 2 points on their home turf. End result - Carlton and Freo both miss finals despite playing sides who were done for the season.

Fortunately there have been no recent example of the above kind of choke jobs.

Let's hope we come switched on come Saturday.

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Blistering said:

Need to get Watts and Salem into the team to add some sublime delivery skill which was an area we were lacking in last week.

The kicking to Hogan was pretty good......

Percentage booster.

whispering I think if we win and Richmond lose we can play the tigers.

 I remember in 1987 I think when we had to win the last round against the bulldogs  to get into the finals for the first time in a gazillion years and we did it. 

I was so excited that we finally made the finals I was running through the house yelling "we r in the finals" about 10 times. That memory has stayed with me to this day. 

I hope this Saturday afternoon will be another long lasting memory for all the right reasons and with any luck I can repeat the above  

Go dees. 

This weeks game against the Pies is going to show who is upto it individually and as a team.

Cant wait too see who grabs the bull by the horns...

I am sure Nathan Jones will be one of many.

I think the boys step up and get the job done. I am quitely confident..

18 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Some final round disasters from yesteryear, to make us feel all warm and fuzzy prior to the game:

1998:

Geelong V Essendon, MCG.

Essendon were 12-9 and Geelong were 8-13 which is pretty much the records of Melb and Coll this weekend. Essendon had to win to secure a finals berth. Geelong stunned them by 10 points. Essendon then had to rely on Richmond doing a Richmond and losing to the Dees the next day. Luckily for the Dons, the Wizard kicked 6, took mark of the year, we won by 75 points and Essendon just snuck into finals.

1997:

Melbourne V Fremantle, MCG

Carlton and Freo were on equal wins but Carlton had the slighty better percentage. So if Freo won and Carlton lost (which they did to Richmond) then Freo would replace Brisbane in the finals. Freo were playing the horrible 3 win Melbourne side so it would be a fait accomply for the Dockers right? Wrong as they chocked by 40 points as us Dee fans enjoyed a rare day out. The Dockers missed the finals despite playing the wooden spooners.

1997:

Carlton V Richmond,  Princes Park

The biggest disaster of the 3 by far, which happened on the same day as the Melb V Freo game. All Carlton had to do was look at the scoreboard at 3 qtr time and they would've noticed that Freo were down by 36 points to Melbourne and therefore out of the finals race. Carlton win and they replace Brisbane in the 8. The Blues held a 14 point lead over the Tigers who were in the bottom 4 at the end of 1997 and had Mad Monday on their mind. Yet somehow Carlton produced the biggest choke job you could imagine as the Tigers over-ran them by 2 points on their home turf. End result - Carlton and Freo both miss finals despite playing sides who were done for the season.

Fortunately there have been no recent example of the above kind of choke jobs.

Let's hope we come switched on come Saturday.

 

 

 

That 97 one against Freo did cross my mind in the last few days actually. I still remember Smokey Dawson's commentary on Magic 693 while being there.

7 minutes ago, DemonOX said:

 I remember in 1987 I think when we had to win the last round against the bulldogs  to get into the finals for the first time in a gazillion years and we did it. 

I was so excited that we finally made the finals I was running through the house yelling "we r in the finals" about 10 times. That memory has stayed with me to this day. 

I hope this Saturday afternoon will be another long lasting memory for all the right reasons and with any luck I can repeat the above  

Go dees. 

Ox, I cried, i had a shower and kept crying, tears of joy, I remember it so well, my wife thought I was mad. She was right.

8 minutes ago, layzie said:

That 97 one against Freo did cross my mind in the last few days actually. I still remember Smokey Dawson's commentary on Magic 693 while being there.

That Freo team wasn't very good though - 10 wins and a % of 92, they lost their last 3 as well - wouldn't have done much even if they had made finals!

5 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Ox, I cried, i had a shower and kept crying, tears of joy, I remember it so well, my wife thought I was mad. She was right.

That's ok mandee, as dees supporters we r all a bit mad!

1 minute ago, sisso said:

That Freo team wasn't very good though - 10 wins and a % of 92, they lost their last 3 as well - wouldn't have done much even if they had made finals!

This is true. Kingsley Hunter was their best forward for crying out loud!