Looking ahead ... the Path to September

[What 18,810]

1 hour ago, brendan said:

How's everyone's ladder predictions looking now, if we play like we did yesterday I can only see us winning 1 maybe 2 more which just has us making up the numbers unfortunately 

Have us finishing 8th on percentage with 12 wins. Losing the next two, winning the last two.

We could win all 4...  or we could lose all 4.   Who bloody knows.

[Ted Lasso 18,913]

I don't see this loss as the end of our finals dream although we now have to win a 50/50 game to lock up our spot. 

I think we'll knock off the giants, lose to the saints and win the last two 

[brendan 3,433]

Just did ladder predictor I have us losing next 2 and winning last 2 games with us finishing 9th really hope I'm wrong but yesterday's performance has left me void of confidence, win next week and then things change 

adelaide

geelong

richmond

gws

bulldogs

port

sydney

essendon 

we miss out on percentage 

[picket fence 16,806]

We are done, will not make it nor do we deserve to!

Edited July 30, 2017 by picket fence

[Diamond_Jim 12,390]

We are still on track for 13 wins which should see us in the 8.

So disappointing to lose yesterday with what was almost a best 22 against a bottom of the ladder team.

Will need an enormous improvement to beat GWS but hopefully we win those last three against the Saints, Lions and Collingwood.

Lose two and hawthorn will almost certainly take our spot as they will have 12.5 wins due to their draw against GWS.

Beat GWS and of course life is a bed of roses at least for the following week.

[JV7 2,349]

I reckon we win 3 of the last 4 and we'll end up with Sydney in Sydney or the Dogs... Great our first final in 11 years against the either of last years grand finalists... Reckon the 8 wont change from here 

[jackaub 1,402]

On 20 July 2017 at 3:18 PM, Diamond_Jim said:

Toiges have a much harder draw than the Dees

They play:

Giants at the MCG

Suns at the GC

Hawks at the MCG

Cats at Kardinia Park

Dockers at Freo

Saints at the MCG

Everyone of those games is 50/50 at best and you could make a good case that they would win 3 at most leaving them on 13 wins at best, Hard to see them ending up fourth or fifth.

If they beat the Giants they will be doing well and perhaps they deserve to be rated.

yes  but unlike us they can beat teams below them that they should beat right?

the demon train is on a side track going nowhere at the moment

[junk 342]

Such a huge disappointment to lose to North, we were suppose to be at full strength minus jones. Perhaps some of our players think they are better than wahat they are.

[Deemented Are Go! 3,676]

Whilst the losses to Nth (twice), Freo and a struggling Hawthorn are bitterly disappointing, if you said to me we'd be 7th on the ladder after R19 with a good crack at finals at the start of the year, I'd take it. 

I reckon we can make it. 

[junk 342]

Path to September,is there free Shiraz for supporters? Team leads us up a garden path. 

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

I predict us to scrape in, but its dissapointing because we had the potential to finish 4th or 5th IMO

[SaberFang 7,151]

25 minutes ago, Deemented Are Go! said:

Whilst the losses to Nth (twice), Freo and a struggling Hawthorn are bitterly disappointing, if you said to me we'd be 7th on the ladder after R19 with a good crack at finals at the start of the year, I'd take it. 

I know where you're coming from, but if you told me at the start of the year we'd beat the Eagles at Domain, Adelaide at AO, Port at the MCG and wins against St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton at Etihad, I'd be expecting us to make top 6 in a canter.

Instead we look likely to limp into finals, or miss them entirely, because we've dropped so many winnable games with [censored]-poor, drunk-on-bathwater performances. We can thank any of the 3 losses under a goal for this situation, all against crap opposition we should've beaten. Nobody else playing for finals has a resume as poor as ours in this respect. Even Port Adelaide are above us, and they haven't beaten anyone inside the top 8! But they consistently show up against lesser opposition and put them to the sword. That's what separates us from other teams: delivering on expectations.

Even Richmond, who few here rate, sit two games clear of us despite several tight losses against two potential contenders (GWS & Bulldogs) and Fremantle.

Edited July 30, 2017 by SaberFang

[Ted Lasso 18,913]

10 minutes ago, SaberFang said:

I know where you're coming from, but if you told me at the start of the year we'd beat the Eagles at Domain, Adelaide at AO, Port at the MCG and wins against St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton at Etihad, I'd be expecting us to make top 6 in a canter.

Instead we look likely to limp into finals, or miss them entirely, because we've dropped so many winnable games with [censored]-poor, drunk-on-bathwater performances. We can thank any of the 3 losses under a goal for this situation, all against crap opposition we should've beaten. Nobody else playing for finals has a resume as poor as ours in this respect. Even Port Adelaide are above us, and they haven't beaten anyone inside the top 8! But they consistently show up against lesser opposition and put them to the sword. That's what separates us from other teams: delivering on expectations.

Even Richmond, who few here rate, sit two games clear of us despite several tight losses against two potential contenders (GWS & Bulldogs) and Fremantle.

I would much rather beat top 8 sides as consistently as we have and drop the odd game against a bottom side than be totally incapable of beating a good side the way port seem to be 

[SaberFang 7,151]

Just now, Abe said:

I would much rather beat top 8 sides as consistently as we have and drop the odd game against a bottom side than be totally incapable of beating a good side the way port seem to be 

Even though it's put us at jeopardy of making the 8? I'd rather we had two percentage boosting wins against Fremantle & North Melbourne and dropped one of the Adelaide/West Coast games. As it stands, we're precariously placed to miss the 8 on percentage unless we can win 3 of our final 4.

[At the break of Gawn 4,452]

2 hours ago, ENYAW said:

Such a huge disappointment to lose to North, we were suppose to be at full strength minus jones. Perhaps some of our players think they are better than wahat they are.

It's a bitter pill to swallow, but North are very good at Blundstone arena, no matter who the opposition. Just take a look at their record at the ground.

http://afltables.com/afl/venues/bellerive_oval.html

I predict the Dees will bounce back and beat GWS, Saints, Lions but somehow lose to the Pies after resting on our laurels. 

 

[Pates 9,626]

10 hours ago, picket fence said:

We are done, will not make it nor do we deserve to!

Far from done. We need to win three to close to guarantee finals (nothing has change in that respect from last week) and we can definitely beat all four of our opponents. But not the way we played yesterday. 

Yesterday has to be the last blip on the radar or I agree we are cooked. GWS are not in good form so are very beatable, we're past our "hoodoo" with the Saints so we don't have that hanging over our heads, Brisbane FFS has to be a win, and the Pies we beat earlier in the year we can definitely do it again. 

Similar to how it was last year it's laid out for us, it's down to the players having the mental resolve to pick themselves off the mat like they've done a few times this year. 

[Ted Lasso 18,913]

32 minutes ago, SaberFang said:

Even though it's put us at jeopardy of making the 8? I'd rather we had two percentage boosting wins against Fremantle & North Melbourne and dropped one of the Adelaide/West Coast games. As it stands, we're precariously placed to miss the 8 on percentage unless we can win 3 of our final 4.

Pointless making the 8 if we aren't any threat to the teams in the finals. Right now I doubt any team would go into a game against us feeling confident. 

[SaberFang 7,151]

3 minutes ago, Abe said:

Pointless making the 8 if we aren't any threat to the teams in the finals. Right now I doubt any team would go into a game against us feeling confident. 

No disagreements there, but it's equally pointless making the 8 if we're too mentally weak to put away cellar-dwellers. Two losses to North Melbourne, Fremantle and Hawthorn are an indictment on the mentality of our club.

Losses to Sydney and Adelaide I can stomach.

[rpfc 28,079]

I have vivid memories of the 13 goals straight GWS kicked on us at Manuka either last year or the year before.

But we get our captain back and have enough forward to kick a winning score. 

I can see us flaming out in this last month, of course I can; I was one of the first to define MFCSS...

But I can also see us going on a tear too - we will found out how much of our neurosis we are projecting, or how much they are reflecting.

But we are 10 and 8 and August is relevant again.

Bring it on.

[What 18,810]

1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

 

I predict the Dees will bounce back and beat GWS, Saints, Lions but somehow lose to the Pies after resting on our laurels. 

 

Ill glady take it - would make the final round a semi dead rubber as we would have sewed up a final spot with 1 game left.

[Coq au vin 755]

The players look tired and have lost intensity. We'll lose the next 4 games and finish 11th.

[bandicoot 1,395]

14 minutes ago, Diamond said:

The players look tired and have lost intensity. We'll lose the next 4 games and finish 11th.

Classic demonland post.

[bandicoot 1,395]

I have Dogs winning next 4 and finishing with 56 points - 5th

port winning 2 and 52 points and big % - 6th

melbourne winning 3 and 52 points - 7th

Essendon winning 3 and finishing with 48 points. Equal 8th

swans winning 2 and 48 points equal 8th

west coast only winning 2 and finishing with 44 points

if we only win 2 then we will be equal 8th with sydney and essendon and % will come into play. 

Cant see Sydney dropping too much and essendon are equal with us atm however if they win 3 from 4 you would assume % will improve. 

We have to win 3 of the next 4 as I can't see us getting in on % alone

Edited July 30, 2017 by bandicoot

[SaberFang 7,151]

If we can only win 2, they need to be bloody solid wins. And our losses need to be within a few goals.

Otherwise we'll be out of finals only by percentage.

[Gorgoroth 12,757]

Be interesting to see their mindset vs GW$.

They have the upper hand. Don't think we will win it. Saints 50/50,

Lions we win, pies 50/50 if their form continues