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Looking ahead ... the Path to September


Diamond_Jim
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I had to have a chuckle at fox footy with their ladder prediction, they still have us winning all four games. There is literally no analysis, they're just going on who they think the favourites will be week to week. A 10 year old can do that with basic info. 

The strange good news is that apart from Brisbane we play teams we are evenly matched against, which going on what we've seen this year means we're more likely to bring our best game. 

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http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-01/the-stats-files-why-the-demon-rollercoaster-is-wobbling

Interesting article on afl.com today that shows we have dropped off big time in scoring, quarters won and contested ball. Hopefully the coaching staff have got solution to get us back on track as we're currently on the cusp of missing finals.

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3 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-01/the-stats-files-why-the-demon-rollercoaster-is-wobbling

Interesting article on afl.com today that shows we have dropped off big time in scoring, quarters won and contested ball. Hopefully the coaching staff have got solution to get us back on track as we're currently on the cusp of missing finals.

Yes, interesting (and depressing) to read: 

"Last year was the first time since 2007 that the Demons won two of their final four games, and they haven't won three of their last four home and away games since 2005. 

They last won all four of their final home and away games in 2000 when they played in the Grand Final, starting the run from round 19 sitting fourth on the ladder with 10 wins (same number as this season).

That's one for the dreamers but why shouldn't Melbourne dream?

It's the first time since 2006 that the club has been in the mix when the whips started cracking.

August is here and the Demons need to come alive."

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7 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-01/the-stats-files-why-the-demon-rollercoaster-is-wobbling

Interesting article on afl.com today that shows we have dropped off big time in scoring, quarters won and contested ball. Hopefully the coaching staff have got solution to get us back on track as we're currently on the cusp of missing finals.

Ignoring that those numbers dropped because most of our midfield has been out. Classic herald sun, happy to ignore common sense to make an article 

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20 minutes ago, Abe said:

Ignoring that those numbers dropped because most of our midfield has been out. Classic herald sun, happy to ignore common sense to make an article 

They mentioned it.

But yes, I fully agree; it's common sense.

Demon's score less points when missing lots of players. No sh!t.

 

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It still shows we have dropped off in contested ball and tackling. We had the wind advantage in the last quarter on the weekend against a bottom two team and yet got smashed around the ball and out scored. That was not due to personnel, that was due lack of effort and desire. It's been a theme earlier in the year when we had most of our list available also.

No excuses anymore. We need to turn up and win.

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33 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I dont reckon Nostradamus could pick the result of the Dees last 4 H&A games...

Probably already has. He talked in quatrains after all !!

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This week is huge for us, I could be completely wrong but I feel like one of he reasons why we lost to North is the classic "getting ahead of yourself" scenario. We had just come off a very hard fought win against Port who people consider a top 4 contender and we're facing GWS this week. Sandwiched in there is a match against 17th placed North Melbourne and I'm sure a few of the players were already setting their minds to GWS. 

This is where the leaders and senior players failed over the weekend, at quarter time and 3 quarter time they needed to make a statement to drag the players up. 

Anyway enough wrist slashing about the loss, I've done my best to maintain a "one week at a time" mantra. The times I didn't were after the WC win and the Port win, back to one week at a time. 

This week could well determine our whether we're in a dog fight for the final places or get in there comfortably. We can most definitely beat GWS but it's 50/50 for me and they've got a good record in Canberra.

I really want finals action!!!!

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9 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-01/the-stats-files-why-the-demon-rollercoaster-is-wobbling

Interesting article on afl.com today that shows we have dropped off big time in scoring, quarters won and contested ball. Hopefully the coaching staff have got solution to get us back on track as we're currently on the cusp of missing finals.

Nathan Jones, you say? I swear I heard somebody say Nathan Jones. It is a little disappointing that his role wasn't talked up a bit more in the article. Seriously, the change exactly matches his availability. A note to slip into the pocket of anyone who doubts his leadership value.

Meanwhile, yes, it it possible that we can win all four remaining, which would likely put us in the top 4. If we win three, we're fine in the 8, if we only win two, then it gets a bit tricky and we'll need other results to go our way. Winning only one doesn't bear thinking about.

If we only win two games and our fate is in the hands of other, then we really want Adelaide to find some red hot form (all their games are against teams in that jam for the 8). Having GWS go nuts - galvanised by the pain of their narrow loss to us in Canberra, of course - would be almost as good. Also... if Carlton can do to a few other teams what they did to us last year and many other times, well, I still wont forgive them but some of the sting will pass.

This weekend would be considered the least likely of the remaining games for us to win. Win it, and the whole picture changes.

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41 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

This weekend would be considered the least likely of the remaining games for us to win. Win it, and the whole picture changes.

I thought the same after our Port Adelaide win. Suddenly 13-14 wins looked a shoe-in. After the weekend I'll just be grateful if we can get to 12.

A week is definitely a lonnnng time in footy.

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In a vain attempt at expectations management, I'm trying to remind myself that at the start of the year I would have penciled in some late season losses for our young team. This could really go down to the wire, the wire being the Pies in the last round. Of course, if we win this week, the lid will be well and truly off again.

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Just now, Dees_In_October said:

In a vain attempt at expectations management, I'm trying to remind myself that at the start of the year I would have penciled in some late season losses for our young team. 

This is why we got guys like Hibberd, Melksham and Lewis.

We have enough veterans in the team and with VInce and Jones to return a late season fade out is not acceptable under any circumstances.

If it happens again, we need an entire new fitness and conditioning staff and the current lot should be sent to the firing squad.

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1 hour ago, Dees_In_October said:

In a vain attempt at expectations management, I'm trying to remind myself that at the start of the year I would have penciled in some late season losses for our young team. This could really go down to the wire, the wire being the Pies in the last round. Of course, if we win this week, the lid will be well and truly off again.

Well a win this week still gives us shot at top 4. If we lose but can win the last 3 then Sydney losing to Geelong & Adelaide should give us a home final against them. If we lose 2 then im afraid Essendon should overtake us on percentage, and then we're relying on the Bulldogs to lose 2 out of 3   with games against GWS/Port & Hawthorn at home. 

Absurdly, if we lose 2 and sneak into the 8 above the Dogs and below Essendon, we might have a better shot against Port at Adelaide Oval than winning 3 and still having to play Sydney at the SCG, if the Swans hold 6th.

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We just have to keep winning now.

I have the Dogs winning there remaining 4 and the Bummers not far behind winning at least 3.

I am hoping the Cats and Crows can knock off Sydney. If this happens Sydney win 2 from 4.

West Coast and the Saints have tougher last 4.

It might come down to % to hold a spot. None of our remaining games are % boosters. Maybe the Lions if we can get hold of them.

Nathan Jones is a massive IN... His leadership, contested ball, run & carry and long kicking cannot be under estimated. 

Bernie Vince down back massive also.

We can do it! Go Dees!

 

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I have us winning only 2 from the last 4.

I think we will lose to the Giants, beat the Bears and drop one of St Kilda or Collingwood.

Last weeks loss was catastrophic...but that's just based on my predictions.

Beat the Giants and we will lock in our spot.

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MAssive win for Sydney last night. Almost guarantees them a place in 5th or 6th and a home final. 

If Melbourne don't win 4 and only 2 or 3 then we are mostly likely to finish 7th or 8th and play our first final interstate against port or Sydney.

not sure which I would rather play. 

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Yep it's a shame but I give us no chance now, just can't see us winning our last 3 games, we have had some great wins but also some shocking loses I am certainly willing too give the club the benefit of the doubt and put it down to a development year and we have certainly had some injury concerns and other issues, and no doubt it will be a bloody long pre season now, but make no mistake FINALS Next year are non negotiable, next year if we don't make it then serious questions need to be asked of the whole club 

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