Looking ahead ... the Path to September

[brendan 3,433]

Good thing is next week most of top 8 play each other 

 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Collingwood isn't a certain win, we only just beat them last time.

[brendan 3,433]

21 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Collingwood isn't a certain win, we only just beat them last time.

Agree I was going to put it at 60/40 our way I'm hoping by that stage pies have cue in the rack and send some players off for surgery 

[Pates 9,631]

Finals are far from a lock but the Carlton win helped ease the pressure a lot. Given the injuries this loss was always coming, if we can get Tyson and Watts back against Port and get the job done there it will really help. Lose to them and we're back in a big pack where literally anything can happen. 

Let's keep taking it one week at a time.

[Guest]

The reality is....we will more than likely lose this week. 

The possibility is that we get enough personnel and condition back to launch a late season charge.

If not...it's not our year.

[Pates 9,631]

3 minutes ago, Stretch Johnson said:

The reality is....we will more than likely lose this week. 

The possibility is that we get enough personnel and condition back to launch a late season charge.

If not...it's not our year.

Despite what Port produced this week I don't rate them, at home we can definitely beat them. I don't think it's likely we'll lose, I rate it a 50/50. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,404]

We need (ed) to beat one of the unholy trinity of Port, GWS and Adelaide (which we have now lost) to give us the luxury of losing one of the "easier" games.

Still confident that we will make the eight with 13 wins.

Port have a lot to play for next week as second position is a possibility for them over the remaining weeks. Will be another tough one in which our percentage could take a battering just like last night.

Need some heroics from a number of players to cause an upset.

North at Iceberg Park in Hobart will be a strong contrast to Darwin.

[Ted Lasso 18,924]

Port 50/50 

north 55/45 

giants 40/60 

saints 50/50

lions 60/40 

pies 55/45 

 

i think we need four wins to lock in finals 

all are winnable, 

i think we will win the next two games lose to the giants and beat the saints, lions and pies 

[DemonLad5 1,642]

I'm pessimistic but i'm terrified that we will have our finals spot taken by Essendon or WB who both have very soft draws. I did a ladder predictor and had us losing to Port and GWS, but beating StKilda, Collingwood, Brisbane, North and finishing 7th. I had then changed the St Kilda game to a loss and still had us finishing 8th. Saints have a pretty tough finish. Sydney and Port (both away) in the next fortnight so will be very tough for them to make it.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,638]

What road to September.

[titan_uranus 24,936]

Sydney, Port, Richmond, West Coast, Essendon and the Dogs all won this week, which doesn't help us. St Kilda losing does, though, and they are a good chance of losing their next two as well, and falling to 9-9.

Beating Port will make a huge difference to our finals chances.

[puntkick 325]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Sydney, Port, Richmond, West Coast, Essendon and the Dogs all won this week, which doesn't help us. St Kilda losing does, though, and they are a good chance of losing their next two as well, and falling to 9-9.

Beating Port will make a huge difference to our finals chances.

Really , well I'll be stuffed !

[Skuit 10,018]

There's an end of 2005 in the brewing here. I would advise getting any scheduled maintenance on pacemakers taken care of in advance. 

[GoD's67 111]

In such an even year, 12 wins and a good percentage might be enough, 13 a definite. We will just make it and with some luck might hit the finals with close to our best team on the field and most players back with at least 3-4 matches under their belts!

[Mogwai 17]

15 hours ago, Abe said:

Port 50/50 

north 55/45 

giants 40/60 

saints 50/50

lions 60/40 

pies 55/45 

 

i think we need four wins to lock in finals 

all are winnable, 

i think we will win the next two games lose to the giants and beat the saints, lions and pies 

God I love your optimism! I will have to search your posts out in tough times!

Edited July 16, 2017 by Mogwai

[DemonWA 3,889]

Best thing about this season is that finals are still very much on the cards. I think we can make it BUT even of we dont its clear that the squad we have put together is going to hace a tilt over the coming years. So whether we make it this year or at dome time over the next few, im confident that when we do that we wont be making up numbers. 

[What 18,810]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-07-16/the-run-home-your-clubs-road-to-september

 

Look at each teams run home... the only thing I know for sure is that Sydney will play finals.

Its impossible to say who will make it out of Melbourne, Essendon, Bulldogs, West Coast and St Kilda.

The Tigers are no certainty either, they only need to win 2 of 6 and would need to keep their %, but they have a tough run and it may come down to %. 

The Saints have a very tough month coming up, so they are probably the most vulnerable.

Edited July 16, 2017 by Petraccattack

[JV7 2,349]

Dreamt we won the flag last night... Gees it felt real, can only imagine if it really happened!

[Biffen 12,939]

44 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Dreamt we won the flag last night... Gees it felt real, can only imagine if it really happened!

That  totally contradicts itself.

As you stated the vividness of the dream then stated you could not imagine the same scenario actually occurring .

 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

21 hours ago, Abe said:

Port 50/50 

north 55/45 

giants 40/60 

saints 50/50

lions 60/40 

pies 55/45 

 

i think we need four wins to lock in finals 

all are winnable, 

i think we will win the next two games lose to the giants and beat the saints, lions and pies 

Port is 20/80, their midfield is too strong, especially with Vince likely to be out.

North is 60/40, they are rubbish but we struggle against them, expect Ben Brown to kick a bag.

Giants is 20/80.

Saints is 60/40, a good win in round 1 but that was a long time ago with close to a full list.

Lions is 80/20, we should be too strong.

Collingwood is 60/40, they are better than their form suggests and we only just got over the top of them last time.

I agree that we need to win at least four of the next games, fingers crossed we get more luck on the injury front.

[Deeoldfart 8,001]

5 hours ago, DemonWA said:

Best thing about this season is that finals are still very much on the cards. I think we can make it BUT even of we dont its clear that the squad we have put together is going to hace a tilt over the coming years. So whether we make it this year or at dome time over the next few, im confident that when we do that we wont be making up numbers. 

I reckon we are 50 / 50 to play finals, and I'll be very disappointed if we don't, but I agree with you DemonWA, the future looks very bright which ever way it turns out.   Whether we make it or not this year, it will be a very different feeling going into the FA / trade / draft periods this year, knowing that we are looking to put some iceing on the cake, rather than growing the wheat to make the flour etc, etc.  Great time to be  Melbourne supporter eh?

[DemonLad5 1,642]

51 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Port is 20/80, their midfield is too strong, especially with Vince likely to be out.

North is 60/40, they are rubbish but we struggle against them, expect Ben Brown to kick a bag.

Giants is 20/80.

Saints is 60/40, a good win in round 1 but that was a long time ago with close to a full list.

Lions is 80/20, we should be too strong.

Collingwood is 60/40, they are better than their form suggests and we only just got over the top of them last time.

I agree that we need to win at least four of the next games, fingers crossed we get more luck on the injury front.

I'd say Port is a bit better than 20/80. Also Vince is a defender 

Edited July 16, 2017 by DemonLad5

[brendan 3,433]

Just played around with ladder predictor had us beating nth, saints, Brisbane, Collingwood and we finish 6th playing Richmond 1st week, if we lose just 1 of the above games we finish 8th on percentage lose 2 and we are out, it's going to be tight, a win this week releases the pressure a bit my ladder was

crows

cats

giants

port

swans

dees

tigers

bombers

with eagles and dogs all missing on percentage, this ladder would be good for us we do not want to play Sydney in our 1st final in over 10 years

[Diamond_Jim 12,404]

2 hours ago, brendan said:

Just played around with ladder predictor had us beating nth, saints, Brisbane, Collingwood and we finish 6th playing Richmond 1st week, if we lose just 1 of the above games we finish 8th on percentage lose 2 and we are out, it's going to be tight, a win this week releases the pressure a bit my ladder was

crows

cats

giants

port

swans

dees

tigers

bombers

with eagles and dogs all missing on percentage, this ladder would be good for us we do not want to play Sydney in our 1st final in over 10 years

north is the first of the must wins.

Lose that one and we will need an upset against GWS.

Hard to see us getting over Port unless they play badly and we get a real lift across the board from the team.

Was a little surprised Goodwin didn't try a game plan that restricted the Crows scoring ability on the rebound. If they kicked accurately (which they did in that first quarter) we were always going to be in trouble. (Remember had the Swans kicked accurately that would have been a much bigger loss.)

[Sydee 4,274]

If we can't beat the teams remaining in our draw it's a bit pointless making finals anyway !

i want to make finals when we can beat those teams - not limp into the finals and get smashed first game

the team has improved and has been continually improving for the past 3 years we just need that trend to be sustained - then you just never know