MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - ROUND 6

[Demonland 72,450]

ADVENTUROUS by Whispering Jack

No sooner had the battle-wearied Demons stopped to rest and lick their wounds from the Anzac Day eve clash with the Tigers, than it was time to select the team to take on Essendon which grabbed their spot in the top eight with their triumphant win over Collingwood on Tuesday. 

Melbourne has certainly been through the wringer in the past month, particularly so after the events of the Carlton game in round 2. At that time, the headlines were about the loss to suspension of Jesse Hogan and Jordan Lewis but in the interim injuries in mid-game in rounds 3 and 5 to tall ruckmen Max Gawn and Jake Spencer interspersed with other injuries and calamities such as poor kicking for goal and poor decision-making at crucial times in matches have all taken their toll.

So much so that what looked like being a bright start to a new era of success and likely finals appearances is unravelling before our very eyes. While Hogan and Lewis are now both free of their suspensions, the Demons have a crisis on their hands - they need to dramatically recast their side after three consecutive losses. 

This challenge is something that doesn't necessarily have to be looked at from a position of despair or loathing. Melbourne remains strong in the midfield and continues to be build up its stocks in this area with the return of a Lewis determined to atone for the sin of his three week suspension. Everyone agrees that Simon Goodwin needs to be adventurous to come up with a plan to overcome the current crisis, and if he succeeds, then it will strengthen his team in the long run and make it more formidable when his big men eventually do return.

The main task at hand is to reshape the ruck lineup while ensuring that the forward line structure can also operate efficiently. In recent weeks, when the team's ruckmen have gone down in mid game or had to be rested, their replacements have come almost exclusively from tall forwards resulting in a depletion of their ranks causing scoring to dry up.

With the shortage of tall ruckmen likely to be an ongoing issue for two months, the way that coach Simon Goodwin and his team respond to this crisis and the tactics and strategies they come up with to solve the problem could well determine the course of the club throughout the season and beyond.

THE GAME 

Essendon v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium Sunday, 30 April, 2017 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Essendon 129 wins Melbourne 81 wins 2 draws

At Etihad Stadium Essendon 3 wins Melbourne 1 win

The last five meetings Essendon 3 wins Melbourne 2 wins

The Coaches Worsfold 0 wins Goodwin 0 wins

MEDIA

TV – Fox Footy Channel - Live at 1;00pm

RADIO - 

THE BETTING

Essendon $1.92 to win Melbourne $1.92  to win

THE LAST TIME THEY MET 

Essendon 11.14.80 defeated Melbourne 10.7.67 at the MCG, Round 2, 2016

One of Melbourne's low points during the Paul Roos years was its loss at the hands of the depleted but determined Bombers at the MCG a week after they beat the highly fancied Giants. The Demons had been notable for producing massive form swings when expected to perform well but this one took the cake.

THE TEAMS 

ESSENDON

B: Patrick Ambrose, Michael Hurley, Martin Gleeson 
HB: Mark Baguley, Mitch Brown, Ben McNiece 
C: Travis Colyer, Zach Merrett, Andrew McGrath 
HF: Orazio Fantasia, Cale Hooker, David Zaharakis 
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Joe Daniher, Brendon Goddard 
FOLL: Tom Bellchambers, Ben Howlett, Dyson Heppell 
I/C: Josh Green, Conor McKenna, Darcy Parish, Jobe Watson 
EMG: Kyle Langford,Brent Stanton, James Stewart

IN: Tom Bellchambers, Martin Gleeson, Ben Howlett, Kyle Langford, Conor McKenna, James Stewart

OUT: Aaron Francis (rested), James Kelly (rested), Matt Leuenberger (rested),Brent Stanton (omitted)

MELBOURNE 

B: Michael Hibberd, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta 
HB: Jordan Lewis, Sam Frost, Bernie Vince 
C: Jayden Hunt, Nathan Jones,  Jake Melksham 
HF: Christian Petracca, Jack Watts, Alex Neal-Bullen 
F: Jay Kennedy-Harris, Mitch Hannan, Jeff Garlett 
FOLL: Cameron Pedersen, Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney 
I/C: Tomas Bugg, Oscar McDonald, Christian Salem, Dom Tyson
EMG: James Harmes, Billy Stretch, Sam Weideman

IN: Tomas Bugg, Mitch Hannan, Jordan Lewis, Oscar McDonald, Cameron Pedersen

OUT: James Harmes (omitted), Jesse Hogan (family bereavement), Jake Spencer (shoulder), Timothy Smith (lung), Billy Stretch (omitted)

GIVE US A REST PLEASE

My how the worm has turned. This time last year, the Bombers were so light on in their playing stocks that they had to turn to the AFL for the right to supplement their list with additional top ups coming mostly from suburban competitions and retirees. Notwithstanding that they had half a dozen hacks in their line up, they were too good for the Demons in their round 2 match at the MCG. The Dees were just too arrogant - they thought all they had to do to win was to just turn up.

Fast forward a little over 12 months and we see an Essendon brimming full of confidence following their famous ANZAC Day victory over Collingwood resting Aaron Francis, Josh Kelly and Matt Leuenberger for their match up against an injury-depleted Melbourne at their nemesis ground Etihad Stadium. 

The sheer arrogance of it?

Knowing that the Demons are heading into Sunday's match up without their two leading ruckmen in Max Gawn and Jake Spencer, the Bombers have decided that the 201 cm, 108 kg Tom Bellchambers who hasn't seen duty in the AFL for almost two years will be good enough to do the job against a 193 cm Cam Pedersen who is now apparently several kgs lighter than his "official" weight of 99 kg recorded prior to his off season shoulder surgery.

The Bombers can talk about resting players because of the short break but their supporters are thinking this time around that all their team has to do to win is just turn up.

All the Demons will be hoping for is that Pedersen can stand up for more than the half a game of football their ruck personnel are currently lasting for these days in order that the team can get an even break at the stoppages.

Whilst it's true that Melbourne has struggled to put together four quarters of consistency with key players going down in mid-game in recent weeks, I have a feeling that things might not be as bad as they look. After all, they managed to stay in the game against the Tigers until time on in the last quarter despite having virtually no rotations available. And they have Jordan Lewis back with the mission of atoning for his sins and actually giving the team something back for those barren three weeks of his absence.

The Demons need to improve their efficiency inside fifty metres, particularly early in games. They had the opportunity in each of their last three matches to put away the opposition in the opening half and but for their failure to do so, could well have been sitting on 5 - 0 instead of a 2 - 3 win/loss ratio. There's a lot of coulda, shoulda and woulda in there but Simon Goodwin has promised to be adventurous and sooner or later, fortune will favour the brave. 

Melbourne has the midfield talent to overcome the apparent ruck disadvantage and besides, I think it's time for a turn of good fortune. If nothing else, the supporters deserve a rest after a month of things going horribly wrong. They're bound to go right very soon.

Melbourne by 12 points

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,400]

Essendon are now favourites....

Bombers $1.88

Demons $1.92

Once again comes down to mindset.

We will win.

[McQueen 17,865]

I'm passing thru Melbourne following some business in Newcastle tomorrow and have booked tickets for me and my Dad, who will travel up from the Western District. Having an interstate membership only, I couldn't believe the cost of two tickets - one a pensioner concession and my own general admission totalling $115.00 in some pretty average seats!

Regardless of cost, I'm very pleased to catch a game of footy with the old man and I'm quietly confident that we'll pull this one off against the cheaters.

????

[old dee 23,801]

5 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I'm passing thru Melbourne following some business in Newcastle tomorrow and have booked tickets for me and my Dad, who will travel up from the Western District. Having an interstate membership only, I couldn't believe the cost of two tickets - one a pensioner concession and my own general admission totalling $115.00 in some pretty average seats!

Regardless of cost, I'm very pleased to catch a game of footy with the old man and I'm quietly confident that we'll pull this one off against the cheaters.

????

Good luck Steve I hope you have a great day with your father.

I miss mine even though he has been gone for a long time.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,865]

Anyone know how Petracca's progressing?

Sick of the opposition benefiting from our injuries (particularly in-game) and suspensions to our key players, while most of our opposition have been full strength. 

Edited April 26, 2017 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Bitter but optimistic 22,242]

23 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I'm passing thru Melbourne following some business in Newcastle tomorrow and have booked tickets for me and my Dad, who will travel up from the Western District. Having an interstate membership only, I couldn't believe the cost of two tickets - one a pensioner concession and my own general admission totalling $115.00 in some pretty average seats!

Regardless of cost, I'm very pleased to catch a game of footy with the old man and I'm quietly confident that we'll pull this one off against the cheaters.

????

Hope you see a win Steve but your timing is unfortunate - away games at that Shithole!!!

[McQueen 17,865]

20 minutes ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Hope you see a win Steve but your timing is unfortunate - away games at that Shithole!!!

Tell me about it! I had a actullay planned the trip earlier this week to catch the Anzac eve game and then a few weeks ago the wife pulls the "I've booked a surprise weekend down south" on me. I'd burnt all available points on fishing trips of late so she had me cornered! Already given her the heads-up about next years Anzac game to avoid any issues. ?

[old dee 23,801]

1 minute ago, McQueen said:

Tell me about it! I had a actullay planned the trip earlier this week to catch the Anzac eve game and then a few weeks ago the wife pulls the "I've booked a surprise weekend down south" on me. I'd burnt all available points on fishing trips of late so she had me cornered! Already given her the heads-up about next years Anzac game to avoid any issues. ?

Interesting Steve my wife is constantly urging me to go to games.

Her comments run along the line of "what are you going to do sit home here drink whisky and sulk?"

 

[praha 11,240]

Very weird that 6 weeks in, we've had 2 home games. No BOJ sponsor and only two home games can't be good for the bottom line ... sucks that by the time we get a string of home games we'll probably be on a long losing streak... standard AFL scheduling.

Anyway, I'm worried about their talls. Daniher is a hot head that if on a roll early will continue his form. If he goals in the first 5 minutes -- which would be typical -- then he'll have an on day.

Even without rucks I think we're a 4-5 goal better team but that was the same case against Freo and Richmond.

One week at a time. No idea how this goes.

I guess it's a nice feeling now to go into a game expecting and wanting a win, as opposed to simply "wanting them to try".

[Lucifers Hero 40,005]

This article could be posted in any number of current threads.  As it talks to how we play without ruckmen and without a 3rd man up option thought I would post it here  http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-04-27/the-rule-change-causing-a-demons-dilemma

Selection/game plan options:

• Sam Frost might get the job with Watts acting as back-up, as happened on Monday night.
• Watts has been good but he will be cooked if he takes on the ruck for the next six weeks. 
• In any event, his class is needed elsewhere.
• Frost is a competitor who has speed and can jump, but he is just 194cm.
• Cam Pedersen is another option after a reasonable game in the VFL, however he may be needed as a forward to replace Tim Smith...while Oscar McDonald could go down back to replace Frost. 
• Another option is to leave out Pedersen and use Watts as a second forward/ruckman and have Lewis pinch-hit in the ruck too.
• Lewis has shown he has a leap so he might be deployed occasionally at boundary throw-ins, mixing and matching midfielders as the nominated ruckman to confuse the opposition and the opposing ruckman. 
• ...the other imperative for the Demons, particularly on a fast deck such as Etihad Stadium, will be to get numbers around the ball to stifle the opposition. 
• It is something Melbourne is good at however its players will have to use the ball well when exiting stoppages because it will be outnumbered in other areas of the ground. 
• Alternatively it could put numbers behind the ball, conceding the stoppage to some extent and use pace and guile to rebound hard against the opposition, creating scoring chances in open space. 
• It's a tough ask but a good challenge for Goodwin and his team's desire to play fearless football. 

The last line says it all.  Hopefully we can pull it off - Certainly plenty of motivation having 3 ex EFC coaches and 2 ex EFC players and a team full of players who were embarrassed by EFC last year.

It has certainly become a baptism of fire for Goodwin. 

[beelzebub 23,380]

Hades is all about fire 

[3Dee 1,153]

41 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Anyone know how Petracca's progressing?

Was it the same knee as the ACL?

[praha 11,240]

Just looking at tickets. AFL Members on the wing appears full... where do Melbourne members sit? There is an option for "AWAY AREA" but then it makes me select from all the different areas around the ground. Where would Melbourne members normally sit?

[Bitter but optimistic 22,242]

35 minutes ago, old dee said:

Interesting Steve my wife is constantly urging me to go to games.

Her comments run along the line of "what are you going to do sit home here drink whisky and sulk?"

 

How is the current vintage of Pinot coming along OD?

[old dee 23,801]

Just now, Bitter but optimistic said:

How is the current vintage of Pinot coming along OD?

No idea Bbo I have had a falling out with the producers So I am now in the same boat as you.

Dependant on Dan Murphy.

[praha 11,240]

Okay, highly recommend that if you are yet to get your tickets for this game, you should very soon. AFL Members is completely full on level 1, and I've been relegated to aisle 5 (pocket) on level 3. Suspect they fill section by section so if they're selling tickets that close behind the goals on level 3 I suspect it's filling up very quickly. Predict a sell-out.

[Lucifers Hero 40,005]

This may sound sacrilegious - lets treat this like a preseason game to test a new game plan (without a ruckman) and rest everyone who is injured or has serious niggles, especially Petracca.  And if Jones, Vince or Viney are playing injured rest them as well.  Don't even think of bringing Weideman back in - let his knee rest.

Not in any suggesting we not try to win but it is a very long season with some key people already out for a long time.  It may be a chance to give someone in the wings another go.   We just can't afford to risk more serious injuries.  After all it is at Eithad - no place for anyone carrying an injury. 

Then regroup and make a fresh start vs Hawthorn the following weak.

[DubDee 25,962]

55 minutes ago, old dee said:

Interesting Steve my wife is constantly urging me to go to games.

Her comments run along the line of "what are you going to do sit home here drink whisky and sulk?"

 

go to the game and then you can do that when you get home.  best of both worlds!

[old dee 23,801]

Just now, DubDee said:

go to the game and then you can do that when you get home.  best of both worlds!

Sadly that is usually what happens but with her system she gets 4 hours peace.

[pineapple dee 2,892]

59 minutes ago, old dee said:

Interesting Steve my wife is constantly urging me to go to games.

Her comments run along the line of "what are you going to do sit home here drink whisky and sulk?"

 

A couple of years ago whilst I was watching a Dees V Bulldogs game my wife went outside and flicked off the power at the box. I think I was carrying on like a pork chop. After a couple of moments I grabbed my single malt and a glass with some ice went outside, Had a couple of triples and a sulk. I felt much better afterwards.

[old dee 23,801]

1 minute ago, pineapple dee said:

A couple of years ago whilst I was watching a Dees V Bulldogs game my wife went outside and flicked off the power at the box. I think I was carrying on like a pork chop. After a couple of moments I grabbed my single malt and a glass with some ice went outside, Had a couple of triples and a sulk. I felt much better afterwards.

Now there is a scenario I know well.

[M_9 2,085]

As this is the Dons' first home game at Etihad I would expect their members to be there in force - anything up to 40k, I doubt there'll be more than 10k Demons.
Even so, that's a big crowd.

Milkshake and Pig bound to get plenty of abuse.

[old dee 23,801]

1 minute ago, M_9 said:

As this is the Dons' first home game at Etihad I would expect their members to be there in force - anything up to 40k, I doubt there'll be more than 10k Demons.
Even so, that's a big crowd.

Milkshake and Pig bound to get plenty of abuse.

With the Jesse news M_9 I doubt there will be 10K

[beelzebub 23,380]

Can't wait for Sun 

[old dee 23,801]

4 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Can't wait for Sun 

It just came out here bb. Never any in the dome of death so don't expect any joy in a few days mate.