OVER THE RAINBOW by Whispering Jack

There is a theory that the story behind "The Wizard of Oz" was inspired by Australia. After all, we know the country is often colloquially referred to as "Oz" and in the book upon which film was based, Oz is an island continent somewhere to the west of California with inhabited regions bordering on a great desert. That iconic movie was the inspiration that moved young people of a generation or two to dare to dream, to overcome adversity and to triumph in hard times. 

The theme of dreaming for better times must have a familiar ring for Demon fans after experiencing a decade of despair but in recent weeks, the skies seem to have cleared, turned to blue and produced rainbows all around. Suddenly, their team's season has come alive. 

The road map to the finals is very much a straight line. They need to beat Carlton this Sunday at the MCG, prevail at the Cattery a week later and hope that the two New South Wales teams beat the currently eighth-placed North Melbourne by enough to turn around the Kangaroos' narrow percentage advantage of 3.7 per cent. That's all.

It sounds so simple and by no means a fantasy, but this is real life and dreams don't always come true. 

Standing between the Melbourne Football Club and the dreams of its fans this week is Carlton. Since that groundbreaking end of season contest in late 2007 that came to be known as the Kreuzer Cup, the Demons have struggled against the Blues and there have been  some disastrous results for them over those years. Carlton has emerged victorious in eight of the last nine matches between the clubs and four of those wins have been by more than 50 points.

Despite their poor record, Melbourne came into their last encounter at around the this time last year as firm favourites but they couldn't raise a gallop. They were terrible.

This time around, Carlton is struggling, having lost nine on the trot, while Melbourne's season is just gathering momentum. They have the competition's dominant ruckman, an emerging midfield with Dom Tyson striking a rare vein of great form and the team is chockfull of young running footballers who don't stop. And things can only get better if Jesse Hogan, who has been battling for the past month, hits his straps. 

This is the moment for the Demons. There are no happy little bluebirds around to spoil their dreams - it's their turn to fly.

Melbourne by 23 points

THE GAME

Carlton v Melbourne at MCG Sunday 21st August, 2016 at 1.10pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Carlton 116 wins Melbourne 89 wins Drawn 2

At MCG Carlton 49 wins Melbourne 49 wins

Past five meetings Carlton 4 wins Melbourne 1 win

The Coaches  Bolton 0 wins Roos 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel Live at 1.00pm

RADIO - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Carlton to win - $4.10 Melbourne to win - $1.24

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Carlton 12.6.78 defeated Melbourne 7.13.55 at the MCG Round 21, 2015

At one stage late in the second quarter, Carlton held a 53 point lead and had kicked 10 goals to a single Demon goal. Some might have found consolation in the comeback that saw the team score five goals to Carlton's two in the second half and to finish with a slender advantage in scoring shots over the Blues but in truth, their performance was rubbish.

THE TEAMS

CARLTON

B: Zach Tuohy, Sam Rowe, Jacob Weitering 
HB: Dylan Buckley, Lachie Plowman, Sam Docherty 
C: Kade Simpson, Sam Kerridge, Ed Curnow 
HF: Jack Silvagni, Liam Jones, David Cuningham 
F: Matthew Kreuzer, Levi Casboult, Matthew Wright 
FOLL: Andrew Phillips, Patrick Cripps, Bryce Gibbs 
I/C: Dennis Armfield, Liam Sumner, Dale Thomas, Simon White  
EMG: Blaine Boekhorst, Nick Graham, Andrejs Everitt

IN: Liam Sumner

OUT: Blaine Boekhorst (Omitted)

MELBOURNE

B: Sam Frost, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta
HB: Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald, Tomas Bugg
C: Billy Stretch, Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson
HF: Angus Brayshaw, Jack Watts, Aaron vandenBerg
F: Christian Petracca, Jesse Hogan, Dean Kent
FOLL:  Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney
I/C: Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen, Clayton Oliver, Sam Weideman
EMG: Colin Garland, James Harmes, Cameron Pedersen

IN: Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen, Sam Weideman

OUT: Jeff Garlett (illness), James Harmes (omitted), Cameron Pedersen (omitted)

If the boys get going early in the game I fully expect a 10+ goal win.

Amen to all that Jack!

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

hope that the two New South Wales teams beat the currently eighth-placed North Melbourne by enough

No, we shouldn't be dealing in hope.  Best that we take control of our own destiny and beat the Baggers by 10+ goals to bridge the current net 59 points for / points against deficit.  Then any Swans victory margin will be an added percentage buffer and a one point victory by GWS in round 23 will suffice....

1 hour ago, Copuchas said:

No, we shouldn't be dealing in hope.  Best that we take control of our own destiny and beat the Baggers by 10+ goals to bridge the current net 59 points for / points against deficit.  Then any Swans victory margin will be an added percentage buffer and a one point victory by GWS in round 23 will suffice....

Nothing would hype the media up more than us having a bigger percentage coming into round 23. Funnily enough the way Sydney is playing at the moment there's every chance we will have the percentage advantage before the Carlton game even starts.

14 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

Nothing would hype the media up more than us having a bigger percentage coming into round 23. Funnily enough the way Sydney is playing at the moment there's every chance we will have the percentage advantage before the Carlton game even starts.

Yes, it is important pyschologically that this is the case ie take percentage out of the equation and reduce it to outright wins by us and GWS.  It also eliminates any possibility of GWS trying to fabricate an outcome where they win but by a margin that's too narrow to bridge a remaining percentage differential.  Because as Dermott commented on the Fox coverage on Sat nite, there's seven other teams that wouldn't want a form side on a roll ie Melbourne in the finals.

 

3 minutes ago, Copuchas said:

Yes, it is important pyschologically that this is the case ie take percentage out of the equation and reduce it to outright wins by us and GWS.  It also eliminates any possibility of GWS trying to fabricate an outcome where they win but by a margin that's too narrow to bridge a remaining percentage differential.  Because as Dermott commented on the Fox coverage on Sat nite, there's seven other teams that wouldn't want a form side on a roll ie Melbourne in the finals.

Without meaning to sound too negative... If I was another club I would take an inexperianced Melbourne 100 times before taking North who have a proven finals record. Look at what happened to Richmond the year they came charging home, I will always take a finals loss over missing out but I would be astounded if we were any more than just competitive in a final. 

4 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

Without meaning to sound too negative... If I was another club I would take an inexperianced Melbourne 100 times before taking North who have a proven finals record. Look at what happened to Richmond the year they came charging home, I will always take a finals loss over missing out but I would be astounded if we were any more than just competitive in a final. 

Of course. But from another club's point of view, do you want your finals campaign derailed by a pretender on a momentum bender who have worked up a full head of steam and spend the lot beating you (and who are then unceremoniously bundled out the next week)?

You want to play North who are wounded and bleeding and build up your own finals momentum.

I reckon that this week is the "bridging the percentage" week. If we are any chance, you would want to be going to Geelong with a win loss equation to make finals. Rather than thinking that we have to bet Geelong by "X" amount.

If we're serious about making the finals this game will be over by halfway through the second quarter.

Carlton have a fair bit of spirit under Bolton.

But if we don't batter them I'll eat my hat.  

45 minutes ago, Ricky P said:

Carlton have a fair bit of spirit under Bolton.

But if we don't batter them I'll eat my hat.  

Do you want fries with that.????

6 hours ago, Devil is in the Detail said:

I reckon that this week is the "bridging the percentage" week. If we are any chance, you would want to be going to Geelong with a win loss equation to make finals. Rather than thinking that we have to bet Geelong by "X" amount.

Agree. We don't want a situation where GWS can choose to play the Kangas again by not beating them by a big enough margin to get us into the 8. The Kangas might be playing to not lose by more than 25 or so points.

 

Edited August 18, 20169 yr by johndemons

7 hours ago, Ted Fidge said:

Of course. But from another club's point of view, do you want your finals campaign derailed by a pretender on a momentum bender who have worked up a full head of steam and spend the lot beating you (and who are then unceremoniously bundled out the next week)?

You want to play North who are wounded and bleeding and build up your own finals momentum.

Think 1987. No-one gave us any chance of beating anyone in those finals. Momentum is a wonderful thing and we will have heaps of it if the results go our way over the next fortnight.

is anyone else worried about rain playing a part in keeping Carlton in this game? 

IN MIchie, ANB Weid...funnily enough i got this an hour ago on my phone!? Or am I Sandra Sully?

45 minutes ago, Dees2014 said:

Think 1987. No-one gave us any chance of beating anyone in those finals. Momentum is a wonderful thing and we will have heaps of it if the results go our way over the next fortnight.

Triple like

Show's over for Dawes? 

So the selection committee has added Michie, Neale-Bullen and Weideman. Why not Salem?

Edited August 18, 20169 yr by Skin D
.

Would be happy to see either of Michie or ANB replace Harmes but am anticipating them being named in the 25 man squad is a good will gesture only.

 

I can see Michie replacing Harmes who has been named on the bench.

Jeffy must be good to go...can`t see any of these 3 replacing him??

 

A no change bench if ever I've seen one.

Doubt they'll be changes