Comparison of Dees v Dogs

[youami 54]

I think we all agree the dogs are a pretty good team, so I thought I'd have a look to see how they did it, to try to understand when/if the dees will rise and how we might compare.

 

The dogs jumped in 2015, and look to have a sustainable future for the long term.

 

I think, based on the table below the dogs are two years ahead of us.

 

So if the dogs made the finals in 2015, it would mean the dees would make finals in 2017, I think the dees 17 side might be better than the dogs 15 side, so dees may limp in a year earlier.  It assumes we can keep hogan etc.

 

I would expect Jones, Vince to be the equivalent of Boyd and Murphy in two years time, both probably playing off half back.

 

If you compare the draft classes (considering the two year gap), I would think the dees compare favourably in all comparable classes. 

 

Much will depend on the Petracca, Brayshaw, Weideman, Oliver combo, compared to Stringer, Macrae, Bontempelli, Boyd.  That is the big unknown for the Dees, whereas the dogs already have a pretty good idea of what they have.

 

I think one more year of patience, then the dees will rise, also I don't think we are that far off, in spite of last weeks results.

2015

2012

2010

ND 25

Dunkley, Josh

MD

2

Hogan, Jesse

ND22

Mitch Wallis

ND26

Collins, Kieran

ND

19

Kennedy, Ben

ND44

Tom Liberatore

ND35

Adams, Marcus

ND

26

Viney, Jack

RD22

Luke Dahlhaus

ND

48

Kent, Dean

RD39

Jason Johannisen

2014

ND

52

Jones, Matt

ND26

McLean, Toby

ND

68

Terlich, Dean

ND27

Webb, Lukas

RD

1

Frost, Sam

ND39

Hamilton, Declan

ND45

Dale, Bailey

2011

2009

ND

3

Tyson, Dom

ND23

Koby Stevens

2015

2013

ND

3

Oliver, Clayton

ND1

Tom Boyd

2010

2008

ND

7

Weideman, Sam

ND4

Marcus Bontempelli

PLS

Bugg, Tomas

ND31

Jordan Roughead

ND

46

King, Mitch

ND60

Mitch Honeychurch

ND

35

Newton, Ben

RD30

Liam Picken

ND

50

Hulett, Liam

ND

44

Michie, Viv

RD

6

Wagner, Josh

ND

53

McDonald, Tom

RD

41

Smith, Joel

RD

17

Pederson, Cam

2014

2012

2009

2007

ND

2

Petracca, Christian

ND5

Jake Stringer

ND

2

Trengove, Jack

ND43

Easton Wood

ND

3

Brayshaw, Angus

ND6

Jack Macrae

ND

10

Melksham, Jake

RD

Suckling, Matt

ND

40

Neal-Bullen, Alex

ND21

Nathan Hrovat

ND

34

Gawn, Max

ND

42

Stretch, Billy

ND49

Lachie Hunter

ND

53

McDonald, Oscar

RD 13

Shane Biggs

2008

2004 or earlier

RD

2

Vandenburg, Aaron

ND

1

Watts, Jack

2004

Dale Morris

RD

20

White, Mitchell

ND

51

Jetta, Neville

2002

Will Minson

RD

6

Jeffrey Garlett

2001

Matthew Boyd

2013

2011

1999

Robert Murphy

ND

9

Salem, Christian

ND57

Tory Dickson

2007

ND

40

Kennedy-Harris, Jay

PSD11

Fletcher Roberts

ND

14

Grimes, Jack

ND

57

Hunt, Jayden

RD9

Lin Jong

RD

35

Spencer, Jake

RD

2

Harmes, James

RD27

Tom Campbell

RD

19

King, Max

RD62

Jack Redpath

2006

ND

28

Dawes, Chris

ND

46

Garland, Colin

2005

ND

12

Jones, Nathan

ND

32

Vince, Bernie

2004

ND

15

Dunn, Lynden

RD

20

Lumumba, Herieter

[whatwhat say what 22,091]

They nailed 2012.

 

If Boyd does become a serious player for them they will have ended up doing well in 2013.

 

We desperately need a draft year that is a game-changer for us.

 

All the good sides probably have two to three that they seem to knock it out of the park with.

 

Our development has been so awful for so long we just need to hope that you are right and we are on that sort of trajectory.

[MadAsHell 4,209]

Think 2014 could end up being that game changer draft for us. I have high hope for all of CP5, Gus, Nibbler, Billy, Oscar, Vandenberg & White.

Only issue i have with the OP is you've listed Boyd going to the Dogs at the end of 2013 when it was the end of 2014.

[Skuit 9,951]

A lot of water to come but being a couple years behind some a couple very daunting lists makes me feel uneasy. Imagine we waited fifty years to peak during another team's dynasty? Shivers. I still think that Essendon 2000 was one of the best teams to have ever been. Picked the wrong year.

[praha 11,106]

7 hours ago, DemonAndrew said:

They nailed 2012.

 

If Boyd does become a serious player for them they will have ended up doing well in 2013.

 

We desperately need a draft year that is a game-changer for us.

 

All the good sides probably have two to three that they seem to knock it out of the park with.

 

Our development has been so awful for so long we just need to hope that you are right and we are on that sort of trajectory.

2014. Petracca, Brayshaw, ANB, Stretch.

Anyway, these comparisons are useless. The Dogs aren't coming back from anywhere near as far back as we were. They played in three straight Prelims don't forget only a few years ago. Plenty of finals experience and guidance there that Melbourne lacks. I think we are realistically 2-3 years behind where the club *wants* to be. I can't see us turning a corner anytime soon. I think we'll just continue this slow upwards climb until we break through. It won't be the revolutionary breakthrough and change that we saw with the Dogs and Port a few years ago. They were polishing a dusty old antique with a bit left in it yet. We're polishing a turd.

Finals in 2016 is a possibility but unlikely. Too tight between 5th and 12th and we're most definitely closer to 12th. 2017 would be a "scrape into finals" year, but even then, we can't understate just how far back we're coming from. I don't think the club wants to admit that. I think they're doing a great job of selling hope and selling our list as being better than what it is.

Edited April 7, 2016 by praha

[Dee-licious 1,947]

Look at their 2010 draft. I know 2 were father sons but to get your back flank and forward flank in Johanneson and Daulhaus from the rookie draft really helps! I know that they have gotten rid of a lot of deadwood but so much depth in their rookie drafts! Well done Dogs recruiting. 

For us, I do think 2013-15 have to be our core for us to make it. If you think about it: 

Harmes <player x> <player x>
Salem McDonald White 
Stretch Oliver Neal Bullen 
VDB Weiderman <player x>
JKH Hogan Hunt
<player x> Brayshaw Petracca

King, King, Hulett, Wager 

There is enough talent in there and we have nailed our VDB and Harmes rookie picks. The fact that White and now Wagner are playing are great signs for those 2. 

Now it is development and hoping that we have the same curve as the dogs. 

[dee-luded 2,959]

 

the Bullies have built their current Club & list on this platform   >   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Bulldogs#2000s

Its all happened on solid leadership from the passionate Smorgan,  & the solid lengthy development of Eade..   The finances were settled & the culture changed by the 2 of them.

Add young draft picks entering a healthy environment to learn within, & things start to blossom.  Maca & his assistants would have shaken the players from any comfort zone developing in the list,  & then Luke Beveridge enters the picture,  to add new energy & positivity.

Add new building facilities,  and a dash of pride,  & nudge that snowball along.

Really as simple as that.   The doggies have always had the inner tenacity.    Their club's nature is bred on it,   & they sing about it every week,  to reinforce it in the back of their minds.

[John Crow Batty 8,766]

Hang on, wearn't the Bulldogs in disarray 2 seasons ago? Top players walked, coach sacked, management flapping about like headless chooks and many predicted here they were in for a big slide. Enter Beveridge and they have risen like the Phoenix. I would give him full credit for what has happened because it would have been far easier to continue the downward spiral. Their players perform with a passion and energy we can only dream about. If we had  that, we would have been on the up with them. Macca did bugger all IMO. 

Edited April 8, 2016 by america de cali

[chook fowler 19,248]

I really like what Caleb Daniel brings to their midfield. Works really hard to run to the right position and always delivers to advantage. Has overcome the size disadvantage to become an important player. Great recruiting.

[jackaub 1,402]

1 hour ago, praha said:

2014. Petracca, Brayshaw, ANB, Stretch.

Anyway, these comparisons are useless. The Dogs aren't coming back from anywhere near as far back as we were. They played in three straight Prelims don't forget only a few years ago. Plenty of finals experience and guidance there that Melbourne lacks. I think we are realistically 2-3 years behind where the club *wants* to be. I can't see us turning a corner anytime soon. I think we'll just continue this slow upwards climb until we break through. It won't be the revolutionary breakthrough and change that we saw with the Dogs and Port a few years ago. They were polishing a dusty old antique with a bit left in it yet. We're polishing a turd.

Finals in 2016 is a possibility but unlikely. Too tight between 5th and 12th and we're most definitely closer to 12th. 2017 would be a "scrape into finals" year, but even then, we can't understate just how far back we're coming from. I don't think the club wants to admit that. I think they're doing a great job of selling hope and selling our list as being better than what it is.

Yes and if we cant beat Essendon will will finish behind last year

ie No improvement

[Redleg 40,065]

41 minutes ago, america de cali said:

Hang on, wearn't the Bulldogs in disarray 2 seasons ago? Top players walked, coach sacked, management flapping about like headless chooks and many predicted here they were in for a big slide. Enter Beveridge and they have risen like the Phoenix. I would give him full credit for what has happened because it would have been far easier to continue the downward spiral. Their players perform with a passion and energy we can only dream about. If we had  that, we would have been on the up with them. Macca did bugger all IMO. 

Macca set up Beveridges' list and did the hard early work. Beveridge who is doing well, got the benefit of development and games played by his boys, gaining experience. When he came in they were ready to fire. Beveridge clearly has the players playing for him though. 

[John Crow Batty 8,766]

10 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Beveridge clearly has the players playing for him though. 

Raises the question  for whom our players are playing for?  3 seasons of snail pace development under the Roos regime sees us more or less at the same level  as in early 2014. Tangible improvement has to happen this season or we have to find our own Beveridge. And that will be a matter of luck more than anything else.

Edited April 8, 2016 by america de cali

[Redleg 40,065]

1 minute ago, america de cali said:

Raises the question  for whom our players are playing for?  3 seasons of snail pace development under the Roos regime sees us more or less at the same  as in early 2014.  

Not sure last week they even played. Roos has only had them for two seasons not three. They did show flashes in the NAB Cup of a more attacking style. Hopefully we see more of that during the season. 

[Redleg 40,065]

A disappointing thing is that players are re signing at all other clubs but ours ATM. That is worrying. 

[John Crow Batty 8,766]

2 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Not sure last week they even played. Roos has only had them for two seasons not three. They did show flashes in the NAB Cup of a more attacking style. Hopefully we see more of that during the season. 

I am counting this season also but you are right. 2014 and 15 we started  like we were improving then fell away. Seems like we are heading the same way.  

[Winners at last 5,150]

No comparison. Obviously.

Here's what Max said after the Round 1 win.

___________________________________________________________________

While Gawn said the group was thrilled with the win, they must now maintain their momentum.

“We won Round 1 last year as well and then we didn’t really go on with it. It’s all about the next few weeks and how we recover and what we do at training this week,” he said.

“We want to go on with this. Obviously we’ve won three NAB games in a row, but that doesn’t really matter. It’s been a long time since we’ve won two or three AFL games in a row.

“We we’ve got a couple of games coming up that will be testers.”

[praha 11,106]

2 hours ago, jackaub said:

Yes and if we cant beat Essendon will will finish behind last year

ie No improvement

I am as frustrated as anyone but it's Round 2. After we lost 3 in a row vs Freo, Sydney and Hawthorn, people had us below 2014 and potentially finishing last again. Granted they were three top teams but we've been here before. Let's not forget the Bombers were leading Sydney in Sydney by 40 points in Round 1 last year and lost but almost won...with arguably a worse team than they fielded on Saturday.

They then beat Hawthorn in round 2.

Like Roos said, this is the AFL, any one team can get up against any opposition irrespective of ladder position if they play to win and stick to the plan. Melbourne did not stick to the plan on Saturday and lost. It's not the end of the world. I am just saying that we are still only a 8-12-win team, and 12 wins may not be enough for 8th this year. You're going to need a very strong percentage and we don't score enough to do that.

Edited April 8, 2016 by praha

[junk 342]

It is like comparing Jarslberg Cheese ( $36 Kg) against chalk.

[jnrmac 19,890]

6 hours ago, praha said:

2014. Petracca, Brayshaw, ANB, Stretch.

Anyway, these comparisons are useless. The Dogs aren't coming back from anywhere near as far back as we were. They played in three straight Prelims don't forget only a few years ago. Plenty of finals experience and guidance there that Melbourne lacks. I think we are realistically 2-3 years behind where the club *wants* to be. I can't see us turning a corner anytime soon. I think we'll just continue this slow upwards climb until we break through. It won't be the revolutionary breakthrough and change that we saw with the Dogs and Port a few years ago. They were polishing a dusty old antique with a bit left in it yet. We're polishing a turd.

Finals in 2016 is a possibility but unlikely. Too tight between 5th and 12th and we're most definitely closer to 12th. 2017 would be a "scrape into finals" year, but even then, we can't understate just how far back we're coming from. I don't think the club wants to admit that. I think they're doing a great job of selling hope and selling our list as being better than what it is.

That was 2008, 09 and 10. That is a fair while ago.

[Johnny Karate 559]

Western Bulldogs' recruiting has obviously been excellent. They nailed early picks in Stringer, Macrae and Bontempelli. They've had a very good run with FS recruits in Liberatore, Wallis and Hunter (and they will hope Z Cordy). Their speculative recruiting has also worked out pretty well in netting the likes of Dahlhaus, Johanisson, Adams, Jong with low draft picks. They have also been pretty clever with their recruiting of role players from other clubs in Suckling, Biggs, Stevens and Crameri (sometimes). The Tom Boyd deal is still up in the air but they've probably recruited as well as any other club over the past 5 seasons. 

It also helps that they've had stability in their administration, experienced on field leaders in M Boyd, Murphy, Picken and Morris and appear to have a very good coach.

I'd say they are probably 3 years ahead of us. However, if Hogan, Petracca, Brayshaw, Salem and Viney turn out to be as good as I think they can, we can go past them.

Edited April 8, 2016 by Johnny Karate

[Gator 17,228]

56 minutes ago, ENYAW said:

It is like comparing Jarslberg Cheese ( $36 Kg) against chalk.

Rubbish.

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

2 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Rubbish.

Agree. We aren't that good.

Edited April 8, 2016 by Devil is in the Detail

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

14 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I hope your 445th is better than your 444th.

Don't bet on it.

[praha 11,106]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

That was 2008, 09 and 10. That is a fair while ago.

Still, you can't understate the influence it has on talent coming in and the feeling around the place. They played finals in recent memory. And consistently. 

[Adam The God 29,329]

7 hours ago, praha said:

Still, you can't understate the influence it has on talent coming in and the feeling around the place. They played finals in recent memory. And consistently. 

But the blokes who are their leaders consistently faltered at the second last hurdle too. In some ways that could work against them in a stronger way than our lack of experience in failed finals campaigns.

EDIT. I hope that makes sense. It is getting late now though.

Edited April 8, 2016 by AdamFarr