Fox Footy Roundtable - Melbourne

[Slartibartfast 16,889]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

 

...but, I guess I'm not making my point very well 'Bob'. This post from 'Goffy' says it better...really well researched.

 

Or perhaps I'm not making mine.  You suggested that Richmond hadn't turned over their list.  I think they have.  I'm not suggesting they have been successful, just that they have tried.  As for Goffy I think he makes a good point.  But it would be interesting to benchmark Richmond against the Swans, Freo or Hawthorn.  Richmond have a core of good players who have performed consistently.  They haven't got much else.  

[rjay 24,599]

5 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Or perhaps I'm not making mine.  You suggested that Richmond hadn't turned over their list.  I think they have.  I'm not suggesting they have been successful, just that they have tried.  As for Goffy I think he makes a good point.  But it would be interesting to benchmark Richmond against the Swans, Freo or Hawthorn.  Richmond have a core of good players who have performed consistently.  They haven't got much else.  

Maybe I should have said they haven't improved their list.

To move forward you need to make bold decisions, a bit like the Tyson/Salem and Weideman/Oliver deals.

The Tiges haven't done this, it's the same old same old.

...anyway enough of them.

We are on the right track for a change.

[Gator 17,259]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

The difference is the quality we have to work with. I believe our young midfield with the addition of Oliver is the best young group in the game, add Hogan and McDonald as KF & KB and you have fair bit to work with.

Don't undersell the impact of Petracca either, think Hogan last year coming off a serious injury...

Trengove is fingers crossed but if he overcomes the injury, and so far so good then he will be a better than good player for us.

 

 

Exactly.

How many other clubs have the amount of top 10 talent in their 22 as Melbourne ?

It's nothing to be proud of btw, because we got them being insanely mediocre, but we they're ours nonetheless.

[P-man 13,366]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

The difference is the quality we have to work with. I believe our young midfield with the addition of Oliver is the best young group in the game, add Hogan and McDonald as KF & KB and you have fair bit to work with.

Don't undersell the impact of Petracca either, think Hogan last year coming off a serious injury...

Trengove is fingers crossed but if he overcomes the injury, and so far so good then he will be a better than good player for us.

The panel spoke excitedly about the young core we have assembled, Brad Johnson in particular.  The distinction was drawn between us and the Saints, with the Saints still needing to draft potential stars, and our potential stars already on the list.

Of course it helps that we beat St Kilda in the NAB, with most fans and commentators having the memory of s goldfish. But it's still nice to hear people talking so glowingly about Melbourne.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

2 hours ago, mo64 said:

Not sure how a roundtable discussion about Melbourne has anything to do with Hardwick/Richmond. 

There's no doubt that many on here have us being the "victim" when it comes to media analysis and commentary. The facts are:

- We won 7 games last year and had a shocking 2nd half to the year.

- We haven't recruited anyone of significance. Our biggest name recruit Melksham is on the sidelines.

- Only draftee likely to make an impact is Oliver. You can talk about Petracca and Trengove as being like new recruits, but after coming of serious injuries, our expectations of them need to be tempered.

- You can talk about natural imrovement from a young list, but every other club outside the eight is saying the same thing.

- We have a tough draw. The wins we had last year against the Pies, Cats and Dogs will be harder to achieve.

Any analyst in their right mind should have us winning no more than 10 games. We could have a breakout year like the Dogs, but it's highly improbable.

 

Fair comments but I'd add that Salem, Vandenberg, Frost and Gawn all missed plenty of footy last year. Viney missed a fair few and Tyson was allegedly golden-ticketed all year. Fair bit of extra value this year from that group, particularly the critical big Maxy. Dawes and Lumumba added so little last yaer you would think we are almost guaranteed a better return from them! I reckon Watts will finish top 5 in the bluey also. What I'm saying is that it is not just our young guns that we are expecting to improve, it is most of the squad bar the skipper, Vince, Dunn and a couple of others who are at their ceiling. I'd also add that our general depth seems much greater, last year the group of Bail, JKH, M.Jones, Toumpas, Michie, Newton and Grimes played 66 games. That's 3 blokes per week who didn't add much of anything if we're being honest. That equation should be much more favourable this year. There's also the big issue of the attacking gameplan and Goodwin's involvement, which from what we have seen looks promising.11 wins for mine.

Edited March 18, 2016 by Curry & Beer

[Gator 17,259]

20 minutes ago, P-man said:

Of course it helps that we beat St Kilda in the NAB, with most fans and commentators having the memory of s goldfish. But it's still nice to hear people talking so glowingly about Melbourne.

Unlike some, I really like listening to Plough.  He said prior to the game (and has said repeatedly for weeks) that "Melbourne will go past the Saints at 100 miles per hour".

He tipped the Saints before the match.

[Ted Lasso 18,783]

25 minutes ago, P-man said:

The panel spoke excitedly about the young core we have assembled, Brad Johnson in particular.  The distinction was drawn between us and the Saints, with the Saints still needing to draft potential stars, and our potential stars already on the list.

Of course it helps that we beat St Kilda in the NAB, with most fans and commentators having the memory of s goldfish. But it's still nice to hear people talking so glowingly about Melbourne.

The biggest difference between us and the Saints in my opinion is they're still relying on the older blokes, Roo, Joey, Steven, Armatidge, fisher and Dempster to really be the core of the team, ours has kind of been handed on the most part over to our young guys, Viney, Hogan, Tyson, Mcdonaly, Gawn, Brayshaw and co, with Jones and Vince this year playing an important but less vital role, so i think we are about two years ahead of where they are in terms of chasing a flag. 

having said that i don't think 2016 will be a year where we see a heap more wins and play finals, i still think we lack a quality partner for Jesse, some outside class and speed and our delivery out of the back line is still a bit to shaking to consistently beat good teams just yet. but i see us as an 8-12 win team, depending on how things go, but the big improvement i think will be close we get in our losses, i think we are now a team that won't be blown away and will put up a real fight every week regardless of who we play and where we play.

I also don't think the Saints have recruited all that well, Billings is a gun, but Dunstan i see as being solid but nothing special, McCartin is going to take some time and the jury is out, same with Goddard,

in terms of the young talent

 

• Tyson
• Viney
• Brayshaw
• Petracca
• Hogan
• Gawn
• Mcdonald
• Kent
• Salem
• Oliver
• Weiderman
• Trengove
• Stretch
• Harmes

 

 

• Billings
• Mcartin
• Bruce
• Goddard
• Hickey
• Dunstan 
• Greesham
• Lonie

Not sure i fi am missing any, but on exposed form i think our young players are miles better and will take the club forwrd, i am not convinced the saints have anything like the group to do that, still rely on the old blokes, 

 

Bruce and Billings are the only two on that list i believe would be certains in their next finals team, maybe lonie

[Grimes Times 1,278]

5 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Unlike some, I really like listening to Plough.  He said prior to the game (and has said repeatedly for weeks) that "Melbourne will go past the Saints at 100 miles per hour".

He tipped the Saints before the match.

 Ploughs season review

[CityDee 738]

We should plan to win everyweek - seriously . 1 week at a time play like we did against geelong skys the limit . 

[BrisbaneDemon 1,559]

33 minutes ago, Grimes Times said:

 Ploughs season review

I don't know about everyone else, but it is so foreign to hear football personalities talking positively about the MFC.  I'm loving it, but it's different to many years gone by haha

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

5 minutes ago, BrisbaneDemon said:

I don't know about everyone else, but it is so foreign to hear football personalities talking positively about the MFC.  I'm loving it, but it's different to many years gone by haha

does feel like we are in bizzarro land

 

[Adam The God 29,372]

13 hours ago, Grapeviney said:

BUT...Hawthorn is the only one of last year's finalists who we play twice, so I'm not really sure there's too much to complain about, and no-one has really complained about it until now. The fixture thread on here is almost all focussed on the commercial aspects, like scheduling and home opponents etc.

So two games this year of which I can possibly convert my Hawthorn-supporting girlfriend of nine years to Melbourne with an MFC win. I don't have high hopes though. With the exception of one match, they have owned us big time for the best part of a decade.

2 hours ago, rjay said:

The difference is the quality we have to work with. I believe our young midfield with the addition of Oliver is the best young group in the game, add Hogan and McDonald as KF & KB and you have fair bit to work with.

Don't undersell the impact of Petracca either, think Hogan last year coming off a serious injury...

Trengove is fingers crossed but if he overcomes the injury, and so far so good then he will be a better than good player for us.

Exactly. We have assembled an absurdly talented group of young mids and have two of our four bookends covered for the next decade. If Weiderman and Frost come along, there are our other two bookends. We can then start to poach good players from other sides in the FA and trade windows too. 

Amazing what a good pre-season comp can do to supporter confidence, eh?

Edited March 18, 2016 by AdamFarr

[Adam The God 29,372]

1 hour ago, P-man said:

The panel spoke excitedly about the young core we have assembled, Brad Johnson in particular.  The distinction was drawn between us and the Saints, with the Saints still needing to draft potential stars, and our potential stars already on the list.

Of course it helps that we beat St Kilda in the NAB, with most fans and commentators having the memory of s goldfish. But it's still nice to hear people talking so glowingly about Melbourne.

Well, I'd say that most commentators and fans had a very narrow-minded approach to the loses to the Saints over the past two years. People who were actually watching the game and thinking about the both lists could see that we were starting to assemble something, whereas the Saints were relying heavily on their older brigade. The media are very much focused on the now. They rarely look ahead at potential.

[Chris 2,892]

20 hours ago, Skuit said:

I don't read her. It's a personal vendetta that drives my desire for her to lose her job. 

I really struggle to get the issue with Caro, she has been right far more times than wrong which is far more than can be said for almost every other journo in the AFL. What was it that started your vendetta?

[Gator 17,259]

57 minutes ago, Peter Griffen said:

The biggest difference between us and the Saints in my opinion is they're still relying on the older blokes, Roo, Joey, Steven, Armatidge, fisher and Dempster to really be the core of the team, ours has kind of been handed on the most part over to our young guys, Viney, Hogan, Tyson, Mcdonaly, Gawn, Brayshaw and co, with Jones and Vince this year playing an important but less vital role, so i think we are about two years ahead of where they are in terms of chasing a flag. 

• Billings
• Mcartin
• Bruce
• Goddard
• Hickey
• Dunstan 
• Greesham
• Lonie

Not sure i fi am missing any, but on exposed form i think our young players are miles better and will take the club forwrd, i am not convinced the saints have anything like the group to do that, still rely on the old blokes, 

They would add Webster, Newnes, Freeman, Ross, Sinclair, but your point stands.

Our top end elite juniors are far superior.

[Adam The God 29,372]

19 minutes ago, ProDee said:

They would add Webster, Newnes, Freeman, Ross, Sinclair, but your point stands.

Our top end elite juniors are far superior.

I know we're comparing our young list with St Kilda's, but I think your point about "our top end elite juniors [being] far superior" stands across the competition. I think we're even ahead of the Bulldogs, because at least we have half a spine. They have more midfield depth, but star potential, I think we have them covered, even in the midfield.

Really only GWS and GCS could compete with us on that top end elite junior talent, but both of those sides have been diluted as they've lost key A graders in Treloar and Bennell respectively, while GCS look like losing O'Meara, Prestia and possibly even Swallow.

The talent those two teams had access to was always going to be spread around the competition a bit eventually, but the personnel that they've each lost has actually had a greater impact on their lists than I had anticipated.

Have I missed another team that has the volume of elite juniors we have? We won't make finals this year, but I think next year (injuries permitting) we could leapfrog from 9-12 position to 8-6 position. Exciting times.

Edited March 18, 2016 by AdamFarr

[Skuit 9,957]

2 minutes ago, Chris said:

I really struggle to get the issue with Caro, she has been right far more times than wrong which is far more than can be said for almost every other journo in the AFL. What was it that started your vendetta?

The way her personal vendetta against elements within the MFC drove her framing and journalistic bias during the tanking investigation. I don't judge a journo solely on being 'right' - Barret is quite often 'right' as well - but I like to read objective, insightful and balanced reporting rather than self-aggrandising pseudo-indignant point-scoring. Chief football writer? Chief muckraker. Compare with Quayle.

[Adam The God 29,372]

7 minutes ago, Skuit said:

The way her personal vendetta against elements within the MFC drove her framing and journalistic bias during the tanking investigation. I don't judge a journo solely on being 'right' - Barret is quite often 'right' as well - but I like to read objective, insightful and balanced reporting rather than self-aggrandising pseudo-indignant point-scoring. Chief football writer? Chief muckraker. Compare with Quayle.

If you then compare her reporting of the MFC issues to any issues covered at the RFC and you see her bias works both ways. That for me, makes her a poor journalist.

[DubDee 24,383]

4 hours ago, btdemon said:

Nobody replied to this post when I wrote it in another thread so I'm bumping my own post to here (probably not cool, I know), but I've poured a little cold water on my expectations for this season......... mind you, I'm still EXCITED!

"I've just been looking over the draw. It's very tough. 10 wins would be more than a pass mark. We play Essendon, Brisbane and Carlton only once. On the current predictions they are the only wins I would 'pencil in', and I would be ready with the eraser in regards to St Kilda. The "10 wins" target requires us to rack up some unexpected wins, and no doubt, I'm sure there might be a couple. I'm talking about wins against teams that are expected to finish in the top eight, such as GWS, Suns, Richmond, Collingwood, Nth Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney, Doggies or Port. However, it is going to take a few of these to reach 10 wins and I'm much less hopeful after looking over the draw. We have to play Hawthorn twice and thankfully Geelong, Freo and WC only once. To start with the momentum of 3-0 in the preseason is great but I'm less bullish about it than some on this site. I think PJ's target of finals in 2016 might be a season too early. I hope I'm very, very wrong".

Realistically, I'm thinking we can sneak a couple of unexpected wins and get to 7 or 8. Anything more would be great. I wish the ladder predictor was up and running on the AFL website. it'd be good to map some scenarios.

you cant say these are expected to make the top 8.  firstly there are 9 teams there and secondly there are top teams missing.  this is the middle group - 3-4 of which will make finals.  tough draw but we need to start seeing ourselves as the equal to these teams.   we beat the Tigers, pies and adelaide.  we can certainly beat the suns and hopefully GWS and dogs.   im hopeful of a 50-50 record aginst these teams.

this is our year to take the jump!

[grazman 7,279]

3 hours ago, mo64 said:

- We haven't recruited anyone of significance. Our biggest name recruit Melksham is on the sidelines.

- Only draftee likely to make an impact is Oliver. You can talk about Petracca and Trengove as being like new recruits, but after coming of serious injuries, our expectations of them need to be tempered.

- You can talk about natural imrovement from a young list, but every other club outside the eight is saying the same thing.

-I think this is where some of the superficial aspects of analysing teams lists comes in.  I'd argue your first point is not assessable until after the season.  The footy world wasn't going ga ga at the thought of Bernie Vince coming to the Dees, now according to the panel he's been just about the best pick up of the last few years.  Bugg and Kennedy might not have quite as big a profile as Melksham, but they make our list better and importantly fit the demographic we're targeting.

-Talking about the impact that new recruits might have is not really a factual statement, it's an opinion - if Oliver continues in the same fashion, Petracca has a similar impact to Brayshaw last year (not unreasonable I would have thought) and Trengove can get half way to his 2012 form, we're a better side this year than last. 

-I think it's a little absurd to compare the natural improvement of talent like Hogan, Brayshaw, Viney etc to most sides outside the eight with the exception of GWS. (lets compare apples to apples) We have the 16th youngest list, but as Prodee pointed out its the quality of player we have been able to select that is the point of difference in the expectations.  If you want to talk facts, the stats will show that with the picks we've had (and proper development) we have a much greater chance of our youth 'improving' compared to a team like St Kilda.  

 

Edited March 18, 2016 by grazman

[rpfc 28,048]

Most of all teams improvement will come from younger players getting better, more comfortable, more consistent, etc.

I think we are ripe for rapid improvement with the talent and the age bracket that talent is in.

I just don't know when it will ignite.

[nutbean 8,838]

34 minutes ago, AdamFarr said:

 The media are very much focused on the now. They rarely look ahead at potential.

How many times have we heard about our potential. It is a wonder that no one looks ahead to our potential.

But they huge difference now is what I think will be called the "Roos legacy" - if he has said it once he has said it a thousand times - develop and teach, develop and teach. And the club has put it's money where Roos mouth is - Getting in coaches like McCarthy and focusing heavily on developing the talent whilst trying his best to take pressure of them by not rushing them ( although the likes of Brayshaw and Oliver have form which demands they be played early) and not placing unrealistic expectations on them.

[mo64 5,489]

4 minutes ago, grazman said:

-I think this is where some of the superficial aspects of analysing teams lists comes in.  I'd argue your first point is not assessable until after the season.  The footy world wasn't going ga ga at the thought of Bernie Vince coming to the Dees, now according to the panel he's been just about the best pick up of the last few years.  Bugg and Kennedy might not have quite as big a profile as Melksham, but they make our list better and importantly fit the demographic we're targeting.

-Talking about the impact that new recruits might have is not really a factual statement, it's an opinion - if Oliver continues in the same fashion, Petracca has a similar impact to Brayshaw last year (not unreasonable I would have thought) and Trengove can get half way to his 2012 form, we're a better side this year than last. 

-I think it's a little absurd to compare the natural improvement of talent like Hogan, Brayshaw, Viney etc to most sides outside the eight with the exception of GWS. (lets compare apples to apples) We have the 16th youngest list, but as Prodee pointed out its the quality of player we have been able to select that is the point of difference in the expectations.  If you want to talk facts, the stats will show that with the picks we've had (and proper development) we have a much greater chance of our youth 'improving' compared to a team like St Kilda.  

 

You're comparing a B&F player from another club in Vince to fringe players in Bugg and Kennedy. Vince had exposed form, whilst Bugg and Kennedy were battling to get a game with sides that didn't make the eight. They may make our list better because they're replacing substandard players, and that doesn't guarantee additional wins.

I'm bullish about Brayshaw, Oliver and Petracca going forward, but as Terry Wallace pointed out, we need to give them time. I'm not as confident with Trengove having any impact this year.

The youngest list argument doesn't carry any weight for mine. The strength of your list is all about how many A and B graders you currently have, not about the potential of your list due to age. With free agency, teams can leapfrog others with 1 or 2 key acquisitions.

And I'm not sure why everyone is using St.Kilda as a comparison. It's their senior players that towelled us up last year, and they're still playing. Long term we should surpass them, but this year their senior players are still a concern to us. 

I thought that Wallace's analysis was spot on. With our draw, 8 wins is a pass mark.

 

 

[Sir Why You Little 36,632]

2 hours ago, mo64 said:

You're comparing a B&F player from another club in Vince to fringe players in Bugg and Kennedy. Vince had exposed form, whilst Bugg and Kennedy were battling to get a game with sides that didn't make the eight. They may make our list better because they're replacing substandard players, and that doesn't guarantee additional wins.

I'm bullish about Brayshaw, Oliver and Petracca going forward, but as Terry Wallace pointed out, we need to give them time. I'm not as confident with Trengove having any impact this year.

The youngest list argument doesn't carry any weight for mine. The strength of your list is all about how many A and B graders you currently have, not about the potential of your list due to age. With free agency, teams can leapfrog others with 1 or 2 key acquisitions.

And I'm not sure why everyone is using St.Kilda as a comparison. It's their senior players that towelled us up last year, and they're still playing. Long term we should surpass them, but this year their senior players are still a concern to us. 

I thought that Wallace's analysis was spot on. With our draw, 8 wins is a pass mark.

 

 

Good assessment 10 wins is bottom line for me...It's time the players really pushed those pain barriers, suprise even themselves...

[grazman 7,279]

4 hours ago, mo64 said:

You're comparing a B&F player from another club in Vince to fringe players in Bugg and Kennedy. Vince had exposed form, whilst Bugg and Kennedy were battling to get a game with sides that didn't make the eight. They may make our list better because they're replacing substandard players, and that doesn't guarantee additional wins.

I'm bullish about Brayshaw, Oliver and Petracca going forward, but as Terry Wallace pointed out, we need to give them time. I'm not as confident with Trengove having any impact this year.

The youngest list argument doesn't carry any weight for mine. The strength of your list is all about how many A and B graders you currently have, not about the potential of your list due to age. With free agency, teams can leapfrog others with 1 or 2 key acquisitions.

And I'm not sure why everyone is using St.Kilda as a comparison. It's their senior players that towelled us up last year, and they're still playing. Long term we should surpass them, but this year their senior players are still a concern to us. 

I thought that Wallace's analysis was spot on. With our draw, 8 wins is a pass mark.

 

 

Nothing guarantees wins except playing better than the opposition.  Keeping in mind most expert assessments of our upcoming season are actually based on last years performance which is why so many preseason prognostications look so silly in hindsight.  So how many A and B graders do you expect to have this year?

Using the data that the roundtable used for elite (top10%) and above average (top 35%) premiership contenders have around 15 on their list in the first two categories and finalists somewhere between 10-13.

For mine I expect a fit Jones, along with Vince, Garlett, Gawn, Hogan, McDonald, Viney, Salem,  and Tyson to be above average or better this year. (that's 9- not too far away)  Lumumba, has in the past as well (not sure if he will again), while Watts, VDB and Kent could as well based on their preseason form. Dunn, Jetta, Garland, Harmes, Pederson, Kennedy, Bugg, Matt Jones I expect to be in the average range.  Brayshaw, Oliver, Petracca, Frost, Hunt etc I don't expect to be anything other than break even for this year, but clearly like you say there are lots of reasons to be bullish about the first three (although Frost might actually have a few seasons below average before he starts to show the fruits of development). Trenners as you say is just too much of an unknown quantity, but if he can get back then obviously it makes us just that much better. 

Now I'm happy to be corrected, but in the last two years we tracked according to club expectations (though 7 last year was at the bottom end of their target). They've set a target of finals for this year.  Maybe they're right and maybe they're wrong, all I'm saying is that they're more likely to know what is a pass mark and what isn't compared to any of the media experts or armchair analysts.