WELCOME TO THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB – JAKE MELKSHAM

[HulkHogan 69]

I have good confidence that Roo's and Goodwin can change this man into a good player. Goodwin's relationship with him means a lot more than we may think.

[SaberFang 7,151]

[censored].

[What 18,810]

I for one am happy with this trade. Sure the WADA may come into play but the maximum I could see him being rubbed out for is a year, probably more likely 6 months so it shouldn't be a huge issue.

If we take pick 25 to the draft we have to select a kid who we aren't sure how they will turn out, put them into the gym to build an AFL body and likely wait a year or two before they can consistently compete. With Melksham we get a ready made player who has shown to have ability at AFL level and who will be helped by stability at a new club.

Hopefully the next deal is Bugg for our third round pick and we can somehow improve our draft position with the Howe trade.

Some good points there Dom.

If Melk is rubbed out a year or so, the kid we'd take at pick 25 would likely take much longer than 12 months to get up to speed at AFL level. If he made it at all. Makes me feel a bit better thinking about it that way.

[The heart beats true 18,123]

I'll take him in our best 22 over Jordie, Bail, Terlich and Riley.

Sometimes drafting is just about improving the middle to bottom end of your best team. That's what this deal seems like for me.

Don't understand all the hand wringing over this really. You guys could be accused of being overly 'negative'.

Welcome Jake. Play well. Go Dees.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

like most, I'm not able to get very enthused about this. What I do know though is that Roos and Co have generally knocked it out of the ball park with their trading and drafting the past 2 seasons, so I feel comfortable backing the play they have made here.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,754]

Wise, do you really think we don't understand that!!

We are outraged because that could have been done on Monday!

It wasn't - strongly suggesting we were not prepared to give up 25 on its own.

We have! We rolled over - to that crap lot near the airport.

That is the issue.

How do you know "we rolled over"? Perhaps Essendon were asking for a second round draft pick and a player who we didn't want to part with. Maybe we stayed firm and they rolled over.

[Macca 16,967]

Past pick 25's

2014 Daniel Nielson Nth

2013 Daniel Mc Stay

2012 Spencer White

2011 Sebastian Ross

2010 Patrick Karnezis

2009 Aaron Black

So is a ready made Melksham better? I say yes give him a another go under Goodwin.

A better way of judging these things is to only use the drafts prior to 2010 as a template ... with a bigger sample size - say, picks 23 - 27.

I can't be bothered doing it but an educated guess tells me that most of the picks would be "bust like" with about 10-15% being very good or top players. There'd be about 15-20% who were decent players with the rest being C or D graders or worse.

So, about a 1 in 3 chance of getting a decent player or a top player is best case scenario with pick 25. And about a 2 out of 3 chance of drafting a C or D grader or a complete bust.

However, Melksham could well become a decent player who we don't have to start from scratch with - that being the case, we passed up about a 1 in 8 chance of snagging a top player (at a guess)

Here's all the drafts from 2000-2009 if someone wants to take the time to analyse that pick range. It should be remembered that all the recruiters have to go on is under 18 footy and that's why the draft remains a bit of a lottery.

2000 draft

2001 draft

2002 draft

2003 draft

2004 draft

2005 draft

2006 draft

2007 draft

2008 draft

2009 draft

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,754]

like most, I'm not able to get very enthused about this. What I do know though is that Roos and Co have generally knocked it out of the ball park with their trading and drafting the past 2 seasons, so I feel comfortable backing the play they have made here.

I also think our expectations are now higher. In recent seasons we traded in Michie, Riley and Frost (along with some better credentialed players such as Tyson, Vince,etc). I can't recall what we gave up for those three, but I seem to recall a level of satisfaction with those recruits before they even physically entered the doors of the club. I think Melksham has a track record above each of them.

[ManDee 7,147]

A better way of judging these things is to only use the drafts prior to 2010 as a template ... with a bigger sample size - say, picks 23 - 27.

I can't be bothered doing it but an educated guess tells me that most of the picks would be "bust like" with about 10-15% being very good or top players. There'd be about 15-20% who were decent players with the rest being C or D graders or worse.

So, about a 1 in 3 chance of getting a decent player or a top player is best case scenario with pick 25. And about a 2 out of 3 chance of drafting a C or D grader or a complete bust.

However, Melksham could well become a decent player who we don't have to start from scratch with - that being the case, we passed up about a 1 in 8 chance of snagging a top player (at a guess)

Here's all the drafts from 2000-2009 if someone wants to take the time to analyse that pick range. It should be remembered that all the recruiters have to go on is under 18 footy and that's why the draft remains a bit of a lottery.

2000 draft

2001 draft

2002 draft

2003 draft

2004 draft

2005 draft

2006 draft

2007 draft

2008 draft

2009 draft

I went back to 2009 the year that Melksham was drafted.

I would rather a proven average player at pick 25 than a lucky dip 3 year wait for maybe a player.

[SaberFang 7,151]

Is it POSSIBLE they made a handshake agreement not to take Parish with pick 4 in exchange for us paying overs here?

[What 18,810]

Is it POSSIBLE they made a handshake agreement not to take Parish with pick 4 in exchange for us paying overs here?

Maybe a handshake deal not to take Curnow if the Bombers get picks 4 and 5.

But theyd have to know theyd be getting pick 5 from the Saints and right now that looks unlikely.

[Norm Smith's Curse 2,602]

Before u bag him check out his 2013 season highlights.

[Macca 16,967]

I went back to 2009 the year that Melksham was drafted.

I would rather a proven average player at pick 25 than a lucky dip 3 year wait for maybe a player.

I'm positive that all the clubs do all the analytics on the draft pick number & the players who are likely to be available and then weigh up what the best choice is.

The "percentage play" is a very real thing with drafting especially so because we draft players at such a young age. What we were giving up may not be worth as much as what we get in a trade.

Then there's the sum of all the parts to consider - it's not just the one deal in isolation.

[KingDingAling 3,758]

laughable trade. When Melksham gets 2 years, with a bit of luck Goodwin goes with him.

[What 18,810]

I wonder how many emails Roos and PJ have already gotten about this trade lol

[daisycutter 29,615]

How do you know "we rolled over"? Perhaps Essendon were asking for a second round draft pick and a player who we didn't want to part with. Maybe we stayed firm and they rolled over.

srsly?

[nutbean 8,838]

I wonder how many emails Roos and PJ have already gotten about this trade lol

more to the point - it would priceless to see his eyes roll back in his head on receiving emails bagging out a trade before he has even played a game for us.

[poita 3,902]

What I do know though is that Roos and Co have generally knocked it out of the ball park with their trading and drafting the past 2 seasons, so I feel comfortable backing the play they have made here.

Lumumba

Riley

Michie

Newton

Cross (served a purpose but already gone)

Frost (played two games)

If that is "generally knocking it out of the ball park with trading and drafting", then you are very easily pleased. By my count we have brought in nine experienced players under Roos for three wins - Vince, Garlett and Tyson - and six that have been of dubious benefit.

Forgive me for not doing cartwheels over any of Melsham, Kennedy and Bugg, particularly when Hawthorn are about to add Carlisle to their list and West Coast have picked up Reddan and Jetta.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,754]

srsly?

y

[Chris 2,892]

Lumumba

Riley

Michie

Newton

Cross (served a purpose but already gone)

Frost (played two games)

If that is "generally knocking it out of the ball park with trading and drafting", then you are very easily pleased. By my count we have brought in nine experienced players under Roos for three wins - Vince, Garlett and Tyson - and six that have been of dubious benefit.

Forgive me for not doing cartwheels over any of Melsham, Kennedy and Bugg, particularly when Hawthorn are about to add Carlisle to their list and West Coast have picked up Reddan and Jetta.

Harsh on Cross, served a purpose which was and still is highly valued by the club, so much so he is still there. Never undervalue his influence over the players or where the club is going.

Also very harsh on Frost, the bloke did something to his toe and couldn't get on the park. Hardly a fail, but not a success yet either, too early to tell.

[SaberFang 7,151]

Roos should probably disable his email right now.

[Chris 2,892]

y

Some people seem to like to treat assumptions and rumour as fact. The only fact we have is that the trade has happened and we gave up pick 25. How that came about is pure conjecture of which we have no idea. Who knows, the dons may have been asking for a first round pick like they are with Carlisle, wouldn't surprise me as they are renowned for over valuing their players and not getting anything done because of it.

[sue 9,106]

Amusing to reflect on how much positivity is expressed when we nominate 18 year-old "Johnny Hasn't-Played-an-AFL-game" as an early pick in the lottery of the draft, yet how much negativity is being expressed about this bloke. Let's wait and see.

[nutbean 8,838]

Forgive me for not doing cartwheels over any of Melsham, Kennedy and Bugg, particularly when Hawthorn are about to add Carlisle to their list and West Coast have picked up Reddan and Jetta.

For the life of me, I'm struggling to understand why any player would choose to go to Hawthorn or West Coast over our club.

[nutbean 8,838]

Roos should probably disable his email right now.

Nah...he is used to receiving emails from morons.