Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 21

[Demonland 66,671]

WHO GIVES A PETRACCA? by Whispering Jack

Melbourne's last home game for yet another dismal season could not have been played at a more suitable time for the game it promises to be, nor against a more appropriate opponent.

It happens at the end of a week during which the game itself has been on trial, when the competition has been exposed in a court as having questionable scruples and considering itself in many ways above the law. This is a competition which favours the strong and gives lip service to helping its weak by doing it favours like giving out meagre compensation to those who are drawn to play at times that are unattractive, making it difficult for them to gather the crowds from which they can draw their life blood.

And so it happens that this game which is so important to the clubs, perversely because it will determine how low they will finish and therefore decide the only thing that remains important to them at this time of the season (and how high in draft order), will be played out at the MCG in front of a small crowd in the late afternoon/early evening out of the gaze of a football world that doesn't really care and will shun the game in favour of other potentially more exciting things to watch on their television sets on a late winter's afternoon. Like the test pattern.

Does this game therefore even merit a preview?

Most likely not because if you take a look at the size of GWS Giants' injury list, with so many of its players out for the remainder of the season, you get the feeling that they might barely muster up a squad to make the flight down to Tullamarine for the game. The last time I saw an injury list so extensive was that of Melbourne circa 2009 and we all know how that ended up.

The wags are describing the game as the "Petracca Cup" in honour of the upcoming draft's flavour of the month and the word is that he's the man most wanted by the Giants whose ladder position stunningly dropped below that of Melbourne last week despite the fact that the Dees suffered a 50-point defeat. Now, if they could achieve that in a home game, it's going to be mighty hard not to lose to them on your own dung heap.

That is not to say that the Demons at home and in front of a small but strongly partisan crowd will definitely have their own way in this affair. They demonstrated a fortnight ago how limited their appetite and capacity was for playing attacking football when they had another lowly opponent in Brisbane at their mercy early in the final quarter. Coach Paul Roos was quoted in this weeks Inside Football that the defensive mindset that enveloped his team in the final term of the loss to Brisbane wasn't a direction from the coach's box, but was player driven but surely thats been their focus for most of the year?

And that's why they could easily lose this time against football's babes if they decide to play sloppy pedestrian football in the super defensive style that has marked a team that struggles regularly to kick ten goals in two hours of football.

THE GAME

Melbourne v GWS Giants at the MCG Sunday 17 August, 2014 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 3 wins GWS Giants 2 wins

At the MCG Melbourne 2 wins GWS Giants 0 wins

Past five years Melbourne 3 wins GWS Giants 2 wins

The Coaches Roos 0 wins Cameron 1 win

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports Channel 3 at 3.00pm (live)

RADIO - SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win - $1.48 GWS Giants to win - $2.65

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

GWS Giants 10.19.79 defeated Melbourne 7.5.47 at Spotless Stadium Round 3, 2014

Bereft of any key forwards and light on for ruck power against a keen opposition in difficult conditions, Melbourne got to within a point early in the final quarter and then simply gave up the ghost against a team inspired by the dominance of Shane Mumford.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Colin Garland

HB: Jeremy Howe, Lynden Dunn, Jack Grimes

C: Bernie Vince, Jack Watts, Daniel Cross

HF: Viv Michie, James Frawley, Jack Viney

F: Dean Kent, Chris Dawes, Max Gawn

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson

I/C: Dom Barry, Matt Jones, Aidan Riley, Christian Salem

EMG: Rohan Bail, Jack Fitzpatrick, Jordie McKenzie

IN: Jack Grimes, Christian Salem

OUT: Rohan Bail, Jay Kennedy-Harris (both omitted)

GWS GIANTS

B: Adam Kennedy, Lachie Plowman, Heath Shaw

HB: Jono O'Rourke, Phil Davis, Matt Buntine

C: Devon Smith, Adam Treloar, Toby Greene

HF: Rhys Palmer, Adam Tomlinson, Will Hoskin-Elliott

F: Joshua Kelly, Jonathon Patton, Tom Boyd

FOLL: Shane Mumford, Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel

I/C: Tomas Bugg, James Stewart, Mark Whiley, Nathan Wilson

EMG: Jon Giles, Tim Golds, Zac Williams

IN: James Stewart, Mark Whiley, Nathan Wilson

OUT: Tim Golds, Jed Lamb, Zac Williams (all omitted)

NEW: James Stewart (Sandringham U18), Mark Whiley (Finley)

If anyone believes that I'm suggesting that Melbourne is even remotely considering tanking they should think again. While the "Petracca Cup" might be how most of the football world perceives a game such as this, where the teams are essentially playing off for 16th spot, Melbourne certainly cannot afford to lose a game that would be its seventh defeat on the way to nine losses in a row to end its first season under coach Roos.

A win means a lot more to a club which needs to retain membership numbers and hope for the future after eight barren seasons without seeing finals action. Their opposition continues to be propped up by its AFL creator and benefactor and can therefore survive on home crowds of six to seven thousand and little local support but the Demons know that, unless they begin to show significant on field improvement, they will remain on the precipice.

Moreover, the draft experts keep saying that there are a number of different candidates for the top four or five draft picks so if it comes down to pick 2 or 3 then it means only that there are some minor strategic differences between success or failure in this game.

The common measure among conspiracy theorists on whether a team is "tanking" or not is the number of players for who stumps have been pulled up early and have undergone season ending surgery. While the Giants qualify under this scenario, with almost half their players missing from their round three win over the club, the opposite applies with the Demons who actually have players returning to the ranks.

Back in round three, the game was dominated and won by the Giants after three close quarters, by a single player in the guise of Shane Mumford who was simply outstanding with 60 hit outs and who thereby set up numerous attacking moves with his outstanding work around the ground and at the stoppages. The Demons have Mark Jamar and Max Gawn working the ruck this time and whilst one simply mustn't underestimate the work of Mumford for the Giants they now have the opportunity to be at least competitive in an area where they were not when they met earlier in the season.

Gawn's major role is expected to be up forward where he will also be partnered by Chris Dawes who is due for a day out after a few quiet weeks. James Frawley will also no doubt play in attack as well. The last time they met he was there for the first time and was the only key in a very undersized, undermanned and dysfunctional attack.

If Roos maintains that his team's recent over the top negativity was player driven and not coach driven then surely, against a lesser side like GWS, his charges will have faith in the players he has selected up forward and they will take the game on to go forward the direct way enough times to kick a winning score?

The Giants' other advantage when they met at Spotless Stadium earlier in the season was its young, fit, running midfield which is now showing signs of fatigue after a long season. They have plenty of their guns now missing and with two newcomers on the field on Sunday, they cannot be expected to perform in front of what will be a small but hostile pro Melbourne crowd willing their players home.

And if they lose the right to Petracca, then so be it. Over the past decade, they have acquired enough first round draft picks for then to be entirely justified in asking, "who gives a Petracca?"

[CBDees 3,162]

A game where a successful tank will be all but nigh impossible. On this basis, [since we forego Petracca], then let's hope that we can follow it up with commanding wins over the Eagles in the West and North at Etihad, with Hogan kicking a bag in the last game of the season.

The above is adopting a "glass half-full" philosophy!

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,491]

drawn to play at times that are unattractive, making it difficult for them to gather the crowds from which they can draw their life blood.

Excellent preview Jack but what's wrong with a 3:20pm start?

You get to do all your odds and ends from 8-1pm and then head off to the footy. Then at the end of the game it's dinner time.

Plus this game is on free to air which will please the sponsors.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

FFS the Saints will finish last! This match decides pick 2 and 3

If we lose I might actually cry. Very hard to argue that Roos has made much ground if we can't beat this watered down pathetic outfit at the G

[old dee 23,093]

A game where a successful tank will be all but nigh impossible. On this basis, [since we forego Petracca], then let's hope that we can follow it up with commanding wins over the Eagles in the West and North at Etihad, with Hogan kicking a bag in the last game of the season.

The above is adopting a "glass half-full" philosophy!

Half full CBD it looks to spilling over to me.

[Chook 14,618]

I prefer the abbreviation "the Pee Cup", because it better illustrates my disdain for this whole thing.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

29 scoring shots to 12 in the last game and yet we were a chance in the last quarter, amazing.

[dazzledavey36 49,550]

iNS: Grimes, Mckenzie, Fitzpatric, Salem

OUTS: Jay Kennedy Harris.

[Maggot 1977 263]

Surely they are having a lend of us naming Jordie on the extended bench !!!

Grimes comes in at the expense of Bail & I would like to see Salem in for Jones.

[rjay 24,099]

Surely they are having a lend of us naming Jordie on the extended bench !!!

Grimes comes in at the expense of Bail & I would like to see Salem in for Jones.

Grimes has come in at the expense of JKH.

[Maggot 1977 263]

right you are

[DeeSpencer 23,546]

Grimes has come in at the expense of Watts or Barry being primarily half back flankers. Maybe they'll rotate there but more likely is to see them play forward and wing. Roos has shown time and again he wants to pick reliable defensive types in the back half. Fair enough that JKH drops back a level.

As for the 4 to pick for the bench - well definitely Barry and Riley, I think they both did enough last week. May as well play Salem as well, whilst he doesn't have the longest stretch of VFL form underneath him he has the talent. Then it's take your pick of McKenzie, Bail or Jones. I'd go Bail and have him as the sub.

[_becks_ 35]

Jack Grimes coming back does not excite me one bit. I dont think that he is part of the future, he must be a damn fine leader if they keep playing him.

Barry, Bail, Jones & Riley on the bench.

Riley was quite good as the sub last week but probably deserves a chance for a full game. Thought Barry was good last week. Jones plays midfield. Bail as the sub (i cant stand the sub rule!)

[old dee 23,093]

Jack Grimes coming back does not excite me one bit. I dont think that he is part of the future, he must be a damn fine leader if they keep playing him.

Barry, Bail, Jones & Riley on the bench.

Riley was quite good as the sub last week but probably deserves a chance for a full game. Thought Barry was good last week. Jones plays midfield. Bail as the sub (i cant stand the sub rule!)

I am not a fan becks but in all honest he is as good as it gets at the Dees at present.

He is in our best 22.

[Moneider96 1,045]

I'm keen to see what GWS' late withdrawals will be.

[old dee 23,093]

I'm keen to see what GWS' late withdrawals will be.

MIoTW!

[dees189227 11,134]

This game is a must win. If we lose this then it will be shattering and it would feel like we have gone backwards. If we do drop this the media will be on our backs again. Please melbourne just win and win easily.

I read on twitter that kick to kick is back on the G after the game.

[Moneider96 1,045]

Mlotw? Movieline of the week? Oh thanks bud!!! Luv you too

[old dee 23,093]

Mlotw? Movieline of the week? Oh thanks bud!!! Luv you too

Mystery injury of the week

[Moneider96 1,045]

Ahh sorry thought you were being a smart ass. What's the bet Patton is going to be a late withdrawal. Apparantly he's got a 'corked' hip.

[Yossarian 1,808]

Please... please no Jordie.

[DemonOX 8,551]

Grimes is back and JKH is out. WTF

Would rather JKH in he team tbh.

[Moneider96 1,045]

You don't get games when you can only manage 4 disposals. The kid is clearly buggered. I expect better next year

[titan_uranus 22,912]

Of that bench I'd hope for Salem, Barry, Riley and Bail.

Grimes replaces M Jones, Salem replaces JKH.

Absolutely no reason to play McKenzie (except for that one big reason).

[george_on_the_outer 7,080]

iNS: Grimes, Mckenzie, Fitzpatric, Salem

OUTS: Jay Kennedy Harris.

..and with no Pedersen again this week, will Fitzy get a chance in lieu of McKenzie or Bail? PR did say he wanted to see who wanted to be there next year.....