Stone motherless and (almost) last

[McQueen 17,864]

Its a serious question. What's our combined record in the first five games since 2007? Probably about 5 wins 30 losses?

Or our first round record since then? 1 draw?

Our new additions are still mainly kids (Hogan, Tyson, Michie, Salem). Our ready to go additions are Cross (hardly a game winner) and the decent but hardly remarkable Vince.

Not to mention no matter how good a coach Roos is we were 2-20 last year with a percentage of 54. I don't think Roos himself expects big changes right away regarding wins. In that means he'll focus on performance, getting that percentage above 80 and then worry about away wins and wins at Etihad.

I expect an improvement and a percentage of 75 if not 85 but I can't predict when that will translate to wins. Not to mention that the expansion teams, Carlton and West Coast are 4 of the more unpredictable teams in the comp.

I tend to agree but hope we're wrong. I asked Tadgh Kennelly last year about what impact Roos would have at the Dee's (pre trade/draft) and he expected that the hidings will stop but the losses will continue. As you've pointed out above, the recruits aren't the elite players required to cause the dramatic turn around we want to see but they're surely capable of making us a considerably tougher team to win the ball from.

The obvious difference which you've missed is the forward line. Regular appearances from Clark, Dawes, the inclusion of Hogan along with Howe back in the forward half along with a few more F50 entries will be telling on the scoreboard. Success breeds success in this sport and whils we don't have midfield stars like Port Adelaide do (that helped their amazing year) I expect to see a completely different team this year.

It's all about a fit, best 22.

[Slartibartfast 16,122]

I don't care about the first 5 games as such although we'll know by the end of them whether the optimism of some is vindicated. I'm one who is genuinely optimistic.

Where we finish, or how we go, this year will depend on how bad we really were last year. Two wins and a percentage of 54 is about as bad as it gets but I can't get away from the fact that under Bailey, a totally dysfunctional club and a divided footy department we won 8.5 games in 2011.

Out of that 2011 list is Bartram, Bate, Bennell, Cook, Davey, Davis, Green, Gysberts, Jurrah, Macdonald, Maric, Martin, Moloney, Morton, Petterd, Rivers, Scully, Sylvia, Warnock, Jetta and Wonaeamirri. 21 from our primary list. IMO only Rivers, Moloney, Green and Bartram are players who really consistently impacted.

On are Hogan, Salem, Toumpas, Viney, Dawes, Byrnes, Clark, Cross, Tyson, Michie, Riley, Vince, Barry, Kennedy Harris, Hughes, Nicholson (RP), Clisby, Terlich, Jones, Kent, Petersen and Evans (RP). You'd have to think that Cross, Vince, Dawes and Clark could have the impact of the 4 major players we lost and the balance of players are better than those lost.

(I've ignored the rookie list and think I've missed one or two players!)

Interestingly I reckon of the players lost only 3 were genuine mids - Gysberts, Moloney and Scully. You could argue one or two others - Sylvia and Morton. Scully and Gysberts played 25 games between them in 2011 and Moloney 22 for a total of 47 midfield games. There are 9 genuine mid replacements - Salem, Toumpas, Viney, Cross, Tyson, Michie, Vince, Jones and Riley. You could argue a couple of others - Evans and Kent. You'd have to reckon that group would play 100 games between them this year.

Now if Roos is a better coach than Bailey and we have a better list with much more depth in our midifield - why is it so hard to believe we can improve very significantly on last year and not surpass what we did in 2011?

You'd have to think players like Grimes, Howe, McKenzie, Trengove and Watts, who all played some good footy under Bailey, will be better under Roos with another 2 years under the belt. And it's interesting to think that in 2011 Jurrah and Watts were our key forwards - FMD, how did we score (Jurrah 40, Green 37, Sylvia 25 and Watts 21)? Bailey was a lot better than many gave him credit for.

Our best team on the field this year is quite capable of being competitive with most other than the top tier.

One of the things I'm most please about this year is the players are now in a good environment where they can express themselves. Tynan and Taggert will be wondering what happened to their careers.

January really is the time for optimism isn't it!

[mjt 640]

Well we all know what PR thinks of the NaB Cup so no one is really going to know until R d 1 .

[DeeSpencer 23,655]

Well we all know what PR thinks of the NaB Cup so no one is really going to know until R d 1 .

His approach to preseason matches may change with a young team in his first year compared to a veteran team that he'd be coaching over the course of many years though.

I expect the first game to be irrelevant. It's way too far out from round 1 and has a gap to the next fixtures but I'm expecting the second nab challenge and the game at Casey to be treated seriously and attacked full on. If we get blown away by Geelong and Hawthorn then I wont have much confidence in to round 1. Our players need to know they can compete in those practice matches other wise they wont have the confidence to win round 1 anyway.

[Whispering_Jack 28,118]

I don't care about the first 5 games as such although we'll know by the end of them whether the optimism of some is vindicated. I'm one who is genuinely optimistic.

I share your optimism but have to disagree with you about the first 5 games. It's vital after what's happened in our recent past that we get off to a good start. Early wins breed confidence and with that comes momentum and once young teams learn how to win, it removes all the self-doubt among individuals and within the team. I think we need early wins to help get us out of the rut.

[CBDees 3,162]

I share your optimism but have to disagree with you about the first 5 games. It's vital after what's happened in our recent past that we get off to a good start. Early wins breed confidence and with that comes momentum and once young teams learn how to win, it removes all the self-doubt among individuals and within the team. I think we need early wins to help get us out of the rut.

A classic example being Port Adelaide last year!

[Whispering_Jack 28,118]

A classic example being Port Adelaide last year!

Port did have a great start last year (assisted by playing MFC and GWS in the two opening rounds). They went on to win their first five games before losing the next five and then fronted up for a second time against GWS to go 6/5 at the halfway mark. They then went on to chalk up some wins against top sides like the Swans and Collingwood which by all reports were on the back of the team's good form and confidence levels.

Another good example but in reverse would be the way the English cricketers had the confidence knocked out of them early in the series. Look at the way they've been travelling since the start of the tour and the first test in Brisbane which coincided with draft day in November.

[rjay 24,185]

Well we all know what PR thinks of the NaB Cup so no one is really going to know until R d 1 .

I think we will have a pretty good idea. It won't be the results but will be how we go about it in the NAB that will point to the season proper.

[dees189227 11,265]

It will be interesting to see and god help us it doesn't happen that we have an awful start to the year if the media target Roos like they did with Bailey and Neeld.

Roos can say well I'm working on a rebuild on top of a rebuild on top of a rebuild.

By the way, you would hate to be a Melbourne supporter and a Melbourne Heart supporter. The AFL finishes and you have to sit through another season of another team losing every week bar last night.

[deejammin' 2,096]

I can see us being 1-4, but 0-5 I would be very dissapointed...

I really can't see why the writers at the Hun think the Saints will be so capable.

They were not very good last year (admittedly better than us) and have since lost a coach, added a first time senior coach months after every other team alledgedly as a result of serious issues in the senior playing group. This has left them a full two months behind every other club in planning and adding Richardson when he had no input on their drafting strategy and trade period.

They have lost two quality and experienced players as trades in MacEvoy and Dal Santo and replaced them with young kids and a fringe players in Savage and Delaney. Had Milne, Koshitsche and Blake retire and replaced them with kids.

They have the bulk of senior responsibilities in the midfield carried by Lenny Hayes (who is getting on) and Leigh Montagna who won't play in round one.

Their ruck stocks are young and inexperienced, their backline looks thin and is largely carried by Fisher who is getting on and Gilbert who is enigmatic at best.

Their forward line is completely reliant on Reiwolt, who rarely dominates against us. With guys like Lee and Maister backing him up, which is hardly a scary proposition, especially if our three KPB's play well.

As for the mids while Jack Steven is a quality player with the loss of Dal Santo he will now face hard tags and may not have the same impact as last year. While Hayes, Armitage, Jones, and co. are probably a better unit than our mids it is a contest we should be able to break even in and if this happens with a superior backline and forwardline this is a very winnable contest.

I think St Kilda are in big trouble this year, injuries to Hayes and Reiwolt will see them struggling to win any games. This is our most winnable game of the year and even with the Etihad curse I don't think the Saints have the cattle, or have had the time for their coach to properly instigate a game plan and repore with the players to win. I've been wrong before but I see this as our best chance and can't understand how the Hun sees them winning two of the first 5.

[beelzebub 22,718]

Its got me stuffed how anyone (media etc ) can seriously think the Saints will be anything other than bottom 2.Theyre going to be cactus !!!

[rumpole 483]

Add Bernard Vince being seen in the Chris Dawes Rehab centre this week.

I don't think it's been a very good pre season in terms of numbers on modified programs.

I don't think modified programmes are necessarily the ogres that many people might think. These days sports medicine recovery programmes are scientifically based so that players actually derive great benefit whilst on them and this is particularly so in the off season. Generally, during the season a hamstring injury might mean missing three weeks but why take risks during the off season? You can afford to be more conservative and keep players off the actual track for longer while, at the same time, give them programmes to aid long lasting recovery. This means we don't see them out there at training and think the skies falling down when the opposite might be true.

[Slartibartfast 16,122]

I share your optimism but have to disagree with you about the first 5 games.

We are probably on the same page but if we lose the first 5 and win 12 for the year I'll be happy. But I did say that at the end of 5 games we'd know if our optimism was vindicated.

[Whispering_Jack 28,118]

Nathan Jones agrees that we're on the up and up - Nathan Jones is confident the new look Dees will improve

[Return to Glory 7,846]

Nathan Jones agrees that we're on the up and up - Nathan Jones is confident the new look Dees will improve

Well he would say that, wouldn't he - P Keating

[Return to Glory 7,846]

And Mandy Rice Davies

[The Third Eye 213]

Well he would say that, wouldn't he - P Keating

And the coach would say that he's able to work more on the skills of the players which, after all, the lack of which together with a decent gameplan is what's held us back in the past few seasons.

Demons hoping to turn up heat with midfielders

One of the biggest changes implemented by Roos in his first season at the helm of Melbourne has been to tweak its pre-season training strategy, believing the players were sufficiently fit to "do a bit more skills prior to Christmas than perhaps what they did in the past".

"They did a big pre-season last year with running and I think they were ready to take the next step, to skill-based training and gameplans," the coach said.

This is where we will improve even if it doesn't happen overnight.

[old dee 23,256]

Nathan Jones agrees that we're on the up and up - Nathan Jones is confident the new look Dees will improve

Did you expect him to say he thinks we will win one game this year WJ?

Talk is Cheap lets see what May brings

[daisycutter 28,724]

just love pre-season

[old dee 23,256]

just love pre-season

And still no losses dc

[daisycutter 28,724]

shhhhh, don't remind me.........it still hurts

[Whispering_Jack 28,118]

Did you expect him to say he thinks we will win one game this year WJ?

Talk is Cheap lets see what May brings

Of course I didn't expect him to say that because that's not the way he thinks. It's more the content of the story and the reason for the improvement and how the footy department's going about it that's relevant.

[old dee 23,256]

Of course I didn't expect him to say that because that's not the way he thinks. It's more the content of the story and the reason for the improvement and how the footy department's going about it that's relevant.

I understand WJ just a smart arse Sunday comment.

The MFC has burnt me too many times especially the last six years.

I am now firmly in the "believe it when I see it" camp

Negative? Yep

Cynical? Yep

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,475]

This is not about wins breeding confidence in the group. This is about early losses (particularly bad ones) kicking the confidence out of them they have built over the summer. An early win against the Saints reinforces the direction and hardwork regardless of what happens in the the next couple of rounds. A 0-3 record could make you stop believing in the Roos majik that has been sprinkled everywhere over the pre-season.

2 and 3 over the first 5 is the pass mark as far as I'm concerned.

[Blistering 493]

This is not about wins breeding confidence in the group. This is about early losses (particularly bad ones) kicking the confidence out of them they have built over the summer. An early win against the Saints reinforces the direction and hardwork regardless of what happens in the the next couple of rounds. A 0-3 record could make you stop believing in the Roos majik that has been sprinkled everywhere over the pre-season.

I think it's a bit of both actually. We need to build up confidence and ensure we don't crack under the weight of failure as indicated by posters above. Port Adelaide gradually built up their confidence last year but we also don't want to go down the path of the Pommy cricketers either.