CROSSING THE RUBICON - TAKE TWO

[Demonland 72,155]

CROSSING THE RUBICON - TAKE TWO by JVM

When Melbourne met Hawthorn earlier this season, I felt that surely the time had come when this young team could step up and beat a good quality team that was down on form a little. After all, the Hawks had struggled against the less fancied Adelaide Crows in the opening round was not at full strength while the Demons had dominated the hard ball gets in their tied fixture against the Sydney Swans.

As it turned out, those theories about Alistair Clarkson's men having peaked and being on the brink of some kind of dramatic freefall into football oblivion were clearly exaggerations. Melbourne not only lost its seventh game on the trot to Hawthorn (the last six of them on Dean Bailey's watch) and, indeed, the team was spiflicated under the weight of the Hawthorn forward press, just one week after Adelaide had overpowered the Hawks at AAMI Stadium.

In any event, there would be no crossing of the Rubicon on that day for the Demons. They were within sight of the riverbank at the game's halfway point but a torrent of gushing water struck them and caused a retreat to the other side. Since that time, the club has maintained a form of equilibrium showing it has the ability to prevail over the weak but remains pathetic against the strong. Against the in-betweens, it's still something of a raffle. Today, its record stands at seven wins, seven losses and a draw. Two of those victories have been against teams that currently occupy berths in the top eight - Essendon and Fremantle. If it wants to make the finals, it will have to displace one of them and it will have to win at least four more of its remaining seven matches.

This means that if Melbourne is to finish in this year's top eight, it will have to cross the Rubicon and prevail over at least one of Hawthorn (at the MCG), Geelong (at Skilled Stadium), Carlton (at the MCG) and West Coast (at Etihad).

In order to do so, the Demons will need to recreate history by emulating their late run of 1987 when they won their last six home and away matches and broke through to make the finals against all odds.

But making history is what crossing the Rubicon all is about.

THE GAME Melbourne v Hawthorn at the MCG Sunday 24 July 2011 at 2.10pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 74 wins Hawthorn 79 wins

At MCG Melbourne 35 wins Hawthorn 38 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 5 wins Hawthorn 13 wins

The Coaches Bailey 0 wins Clarkson 6 wins

MEDIA

TV - Channel 7 3:30 pm (delayed telecast)

RADIO -

THE BETTING Melbourne $4.00 to win Hawthorn $1.25 to win.

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Hawthorn 16.26.122 defeated Melbourne 12.5.77 in Round 2, 2011 at the MCG

The inaccurate Hawks could have put the Demons away in the first quarter but they were so off target that they led by a matter of points at the first break.

Melbourne then broke away with some brilliant football in the second term to lead by in excess of four goals before they were reeled back to 19 points at half time and from that point on Hawthorn imposed its forward press on its lighter bodied opposition kicking 8.11 to 1.1 in a devastating display.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs James Strauss James Frawley Daniel Nicholson

Half backs Colin Garland Jared Rivers Nathan Jones

Centreline Jack Trengove Colin Sylvia Lynden Dunn

Half forwards Ricky Petterd Liam Jurrah Luke Tapscott

Forwards Brad Green Jack Watts Addam Maric

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Jordie McKenzie

Interchange Matthew Bate Jordan Gysberts Jeremy Howe Stefan Martin

Emergencies Jamie Bennell Max Gawn Matthew Warnock

In Matthew Bate Lynden Dunn

Out Cale Morton Tom Scully (knee)

HAWTHORN

Backs Tom Murphy Josh Gibson Kyle Cheney

Half backs Brent Guerra Grant Burchill Paul Puopolo

Centreline Shane Savage Sam Mitchell Jordan Lewis

Half forwards Liam Shiels Lance Franklin Michael Osborne

Forwards Shaun Burgoyne David Hale Cyril Rioli

Followers Max Bailey Luke Hodge Brad Sewell

Interchange Luke Breust Xavier Ellis Isaac Smith Brendan Whitecross

Emergencies Jordan Lisle Ryley Milne Clinton Young

In Jordan Lewis Cyril Rioli

Out Ryley Milne Matt Suckling (back) Clinton Young

THIS WEEK by JVM

It's hard enough to cross physical and mental boundaries at any time than it is to do so a week after playing in the heat and humidity of Darwin. Last time the teams met, the Demon midfield was overwhelmed by its bigger bodied counterparts at the stoppages. Alistair Clarkson was able to alter the game's course so that the physical advantage of his team was the focus of the game. Dean Bailey will need to turn this around by concentrating on his team's strengths. In all honesty, I can't see where this will happen but I suspect the game will be closer than it was in the last half of Round 2. If Melbourne can bring its A game to the table, it could indeed be very, very close.

Hawthorn by 11 points.

IT FIGURES! by Sam the Stats Man

Melbourne has gone through an up and down season which one expects with young sides - in particular those that have their bouts of injuries. To give a brief insight into how this could happen, here's a rundown on the entire MFC list in alphabetical order:-

BAIL, Rohan MFC 7 games, 1 goal - a big improver until he incurred a PCL injury in Round 8 at Etihad. Still in recovery.

BARTRAM, Clint MFC 10 games, 2 goals, CFC 2 games, 2 goals - steady in defence until he recently lost his spot in the team and is on the fringe of selection.

BATE, Matthew MFC 3 games, 1 goal, CFC 10 games, 21 goals - out of form early in the piece and has been doing his penance at Casey where he has performed well and must be close to working his way back to AFL level.

BENNELL, Jamie MFC 12 games, 4 goals, CFC 3 games, 0 goals - keeps promising a lot but has failed to deliver to date.

BLEASE, Sam MFC 1 game, 0 goals, CFC 11 games, 5 goals - the speedy youngster has made steady progress in the VFL and made his debut recently as a substitute against the Bulldogs.

CAMPBELL, Robert ® CFC 5 games, 1 goal, CFC Reserves 2 games, 2 goals - hampered early in the season by an Achilles injury, Campbell has been working hard at Casey.

COOK, Lucas CFC 13 games, 10 goals - the promising youngster is cutting his teeth at Casey in anticipation of kick starting his AFL career in 2012.

DAVEY, Aaron MFC 8 games, 4 goals - coming back in the next week or so after a long layoff with a knee injury. Before that, he was struggling to achieve his previous high standards.

DAVIS, Troy CFC 7 games, 0 goals, CFC Reserves 4 games, 0 goals - missed games in the early part of the season because of a thyroid complaint and is working his way back at Casey.

DUNN, Lynden MFC 7 games, 9 goals, CFC 6 games, 14 goals - a drop in form and a suspension has seen him languishing at Casey in recent times.

EVANS, Michael ® MFC 4 games, 0 goals, CFC 10 games, 7 goals - the young rookie impressed when given his opportunity at elite level.

FITZPATRICK, CFC 1 game, 1 goal, CFC Reserves 5 games, 10 goals - was beginning to show form when he suffered a bad ankle injury. Returned to the reserves last week and was impressive first up.

FRAWLEY, James MFC 14 games, 1 goal - has overcome an injury-interrupted preseason to return as the team's preeminent defender.

GARLAND, Colin MFC 11 games, 0 goals, CFC 1 game, 0 goals - apart from a few week's break with an ankle injury has generally been very solid in defence.

GAWN, Max MFC 3 games, 1 goal, CFC 8 games, 2 goals, CFC Reserves 1 game, 1 goal - impressed when given a taste during the Russian's injury layoff.

GREEN, Brad MFC 15 games, 25 goals - hot and cold with the additional captaincy appearing to weigh heavily but is coming into good form especially when used up forward.

GRIMES, Jack MFC 6 games, 1 goal - young leader was in good form before a navicular injury early in the Adelaide game prematurely put an end to his season.

GYSBERTS, Jordan MFC 12 games, 3 goals, CFC 1 game, 0 goals - young midfielder continues to come on and show great promise.

HOWE, Jeremy MFC 6 games, 7 goals, CFC 5 games, 8 goals, CFC Reserves 1 game, 2 goals -has grabbed the opportunity to play at top level with both hands and has done well.

JAMAR, Mark MFC 9 games, 3 goals - his strong work in the ruck and around the ground were sorely missed during the six matches he missed with a knee injury.

JETTA, Neville MFC 7 games, 3 goals, CFC 5 games, 2 goals - a hand injury could not have come at a worse time for Jetta who was beginning to stake a claim for a permanent place in the Demons' team. First game back last week at Casey was very strong.

JOHNSTON, Cameron ® CFC 5 games, 0 goals, CFC Reserves 4 games, 0 goals - young rookie working his way into senior ranks at Casey after a late start through injury.

JONES, Nathan MFC 15 games, 8 goals - having a consistent season in the Melbourne midfield.

JURRAH, Liam MFC 15 games, 33 goals - the top goalkicker has yet to strike top form.

LAWRENCE, Kelvin ® CFC 8 games, 8 goals, CFC Reserves 3 games, 3 goals - young rookie has had an up and down introduction to the nation's football capital.

MACDONALD, Joel MFC 7 games, 0 goals, CFC 5 games, 0 goals - was hitting top form when struck down by a knee injury a few weeks ago. Due back in the next week or so.

MARIC, Addam MFC 7 games, 8 goals, CFC 7 games, 8 goals - has floated between AFL and VFL. Form at last start was promising.

MARTIN, Stefan MFC 14 games, 7 goals, CFC 1 game, 0 goals - the big improver as the backup ruckman to the Russian.

McDONALD, Tom CFC 13 games, 2 goals - a promising young tall impressing at Casey.

MCKENZIE, Jordie MFC 8 games, 0 goals, CFC 1 game, 0 goals, CFC Reserves 1 game, 1 goal - was restricted by a groin complaint early in the season but has shown his value since returning to the team.

MCNAMARA, Tom CFC 8 games, 5 goals, CFC Reserves 5 games, 4 goals - adapting to life as a midfielder at Casey and doing well.

MOLONEY, Brent MFC 15 games, 6 goals - one of the club's leading lights in the midfield. Has overcome his problems with off field discipline and is back in favour as a team leader.

MORTON, Cale MFC 10 games 3 goals, CFC 2 games, 0 goals - appears to be struggling for confidence and consistency.

NEWTON, Michael ® MFC 3 games, 5 goals, CFC 4 games, 13 goals - a foot injury has prevented him from nailing a senior position. Not expected to return for another two weeks.

NICHOLSON, Daniel ® MFC 6 games, 2 goals, CFC 6 games, 4 goals - put in some impressive performances after being promoted off the rookie list. Has good pace.

PETTERD, Ricky MFC 10 games, 15 goals, CFC 5 games, 8 goals - recent form has been excellent.

RIVERS, Jared MFC 13 games, 1 goal - apart from one or two glitches has gone well in a strong defence.

SCULLY, Tom MFC 6 games, 1 goals, CFC 1 game, 1 goal - knee injury kept him out for the first two months but made a big difference to the team's midfield on return.

SPENCER, Jake CFC 5 games, 0 goals - knee injury after five games with the Scorpions put paid to his 2011 seasons.

STRAUSS, James MFC 6 games, 0 goals, CFC 5 games, 0 goals - starting to develop into a solid defender.

SYLVIA, Colin MFC 15 games, 18 goals - enjoying a consistently good season and threatens to produce a match winning performance against a good side.

TAPSCOTT, Luke MFC 9 games, 1 goal, CFC 2 games, 0 goals - a strong debut season punctuated by a hamstring injury. His form is deserving of a rising star nomination before the year is out.

TRENGOVE, Jack MFC 12 games, 8 goals - stiff to miss three weeks through suspension for that tackle. Otherwise, is having a strong season.

WARNOCK, Matthew MFC 4 games, 0 goals, CFC 8 games, 0 goals - the out of favour defender is starring at Casey but finding it hard to displace the likes of Frawley, Garland and Rivers.

WATTS, Jack MFC 15 games, 16 goals - just keeps on getting better and is finally living up to the lofty standards of a first draft pick.

WONAEMIRRI, Austin MFC 5 games, 5 goals, CFC 2 games, 0 goals - struggled to overcome the effects of his personal tragedies over summer and was given compassionate leave to help him cope. Returns for the next VFL round.

[Demonland 72,155]

CHANGES

MELBOURNE

In Clint Bartram Matthew Bate Lynden Dunn Michael Evans

Out Cale Morton

HAWTHORN

In Jordan Lewis Jordan Lisle Cyril Rioli Brad Sewell

Out Matt Suckling (back)

[Redleg 40,895]

B: James Strauss, James Frawley, Daniel Nicholson

HB: Colin Garland, Jared Rivers, Nathan Jones

C: Jack Trengove, Colin Sylvia, Tom Scully

HF: Ricky Petterd, Liam Jurrah, Luke Tapscott

F: Brad Green, Jack Watts, Addam Maric

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Jordie McKenzie

I/C (from): Clint Bartram, Jordie Gysberts, Matthew Bate, Lynden Dunn, Stefan Martin, Jeremy Howe, Michael Evans

IN: Clint Bartram, Matthew Bate, Lynden Dunn, Michael Evans

OUT: Cale Morton (omitted)

[H_T 3,043]

HAWKS changes from last round:

IN: Lewis, Sewell, Rioli, Lisle

OUT: Suckling (back)

[Redleg 40,895]

HAWKS changes from last round:

IN: Lewis, Sewell, Rioli, Lisle

OUT: Suckling (back)

Pretty ordinary ins by the Hawks.

[Trengove the Magnifique 9 23]

Morton, Hallelujah

[GawnWithTheWind 604]

Honestly, I don't understand the inclusions of Bate and Dunn.

Dunn may provide something but Bate has been tried and tried and gives us nothing. We could be too top heavy now and really lack pace against a quicker hawks..

B: James Strauss, James Frawley, Daniel Nicholson

HB: Colin Garland, Jared Rivers, Nathan Jones

C: Jack Trengove, Colin Sylvia, Lynden Dunn

HF: Ricky Petterd, Liam Jurrah, Luke Tapscott

F: Brad Green, Jack Watts, Addam Maric

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Jordie McKenzie

I/C: Jordie Gysberts, Matthew Bate, Stefan Martin, Jeremy Howe

EMG: Mattew Warnock, Max Gawn, Jamie Bennell.

IN: Matthew Bate, Lynden Dunn

OUT: Cale Morton (omitted), Tom Scully (knee)

melbournefc.com.au

Who will be sub?

Gysberts?

[Grandson of a gun 276]

I agree Bate has been given plenty of opportunities, but he has also been destroying it at Casey consistently and realistically you still have to show blokes that you will reward good form in the two's.

The Hawks are also a harder bodied opponent and i believe that is something the match committee thought of with Bate and Dunn coming in.

I would love to see Blease get a sustained run at it to see where he is at but realistically, given form at Casey and injuries, what other options were there???

[Whispering_Jack 30,019]

Honestly, I don't understand the inclusions of Bate and Dunn.

Should have been a couple more changes if we want to win.

This is going to be close to our last roll of the dice to find a formula to beat a team above us and to find a way of playing finals.

If it doesn't work we go back to developing the list for the future.

[Guest hangon007]

Should have been a couple more changes if we want to win.

This is going to be close to our last roll of the dice to find a formula to beat a team above us and to find a way of playing finals.

If it doesn't work we go back to developing the list for the future.

But surely 11 1/2 wins can get you in ... there are plenty more games to go. However, you could be right.

[old55 23,546]

Should have been a couple more changes if we want to win.

This is going to be close to our last roll of the dice to find a formula to beat a team above us and to find a way of playing finals.

If it doesn't work we go back to developing the list for the future.

What other changes do you propose?

[Whispering_Jack 30,019]

But surely 11 1/2 wins can get you in ... there are plenty more games to go. However, you could be right.

There's always the possibility that circumstances enable a reassessment of the situation in a fortnight's time but this week's game is definitely the one we should be aiming to win if we're to remain in the fight for the finals. By the time we play Carlton and the Eagles, the task of catching up to the rest if we lose the next two could be beyond us because we will then almost certainly be relying completely on results of other games.

[Whispering_Jack 30,019]

What other changes do you propose?

I would have added Clint Bartram and Max Gawn this week.

Neither played last week so they both should be fresher than whoever they replace.

As to who they would replace, I don't know enough about the fitness and energy levels of those who played last week so I won't name names here and now but the club's fitness people would know more than me.

I liken it to the situation before we played the Bulldogs. It was the third game in a series of six day breaks. People within the club felt that there were a number of players who played tired and ran out of legs during the game. Jack Hill the blind miner could have worked that one out but why make the excuse after the fact?

As it was we brought one player into the team for that game, played him as the sub and he got onto the ground late in the third.

There's nothing wrong with that if your focus is purely on development and not on where you're going to finish this year and I'm happy to go along with this if it's the football department's policy.

[rpfc 28,383]

To me this is giving Bate and Dunn a chance to salvage something out of the year and their careers.

The pressure is on.

[Jaded No More 68,903]

We are going to get smashed.

Good times ahead

[Sir Why You Little 37,033]

To me this is giving Bate and Dunn a chance to salvage something out of the year and their careers.

The pressure is on.

I think you are right.....2 Boys who came right through the Bad Times are being given one more chance

This is it for Matty Bate and Lynden Dunn.....Good Luck Boys....i hope you are both still with us in 2012.

Don't get reported in the first 40 seconds Lynden...Play the Ball.

[Guest hangon007]

There's always the possibility that circumstances enable a reassessment of the situation in a fortnight's time but this week's game is definitely the one we should be aiming to win if we're to remain in the fight for the finals. By the time we play Carlton and the Eagles, the task of catching up to the rest if we lose the next two could be beyond us because we will then almost certainly be relying completely on results of other games.

Carlton game ...

This could be the cracker ... we have a certain little issue to sort out. I cant wait till we get our chance, then we will really see what we are made with.

Go Dees

[Friday 71]

go lyndon dunn.

The bloke has some height, stamina and reasonable ball use.

Can kick goals too. Multiple ones at that.

[maximum bob 462]

Bate and Dunn...god forbid...what are we trying to do?...go backwards?

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Bate and Dunn...god forbid...what are we trying to do?...go backwards?

On his day Dunn can play some good football and hasn't been a bad performer he's just lost form; Bate was a pretty good mark and very good kick until this year and I'm not sure what's going on in his head but if the two of them perform to the best of their ability they could help us win Sunday.

Both of them play hard at it football now, Bate never used to, and against the hawks you need that. They would be good in a side that had a lot of young kids and maybe they are on show for GWS?

[titan_uranus 25,000]

Vomit-worthy ins. Hate them.

Of course, I'd love to see them play well and help us put in a good performance, but I can't see it happening, and I can't see them being parts of our future, so I don't like the fact that they're in there now whilst others miss out. Oh well.

Bate to be the sub.

[Nasher 33,613]

Vomit-worthy ins. Hate them.

Of course, I'd love to see them play well and help us put in a good performance, but I can't see it happening, and I can't see them being parts of our future, so I don't like the fact that they're in there now whilst others miss out. Oh well.

Bate to be the sub.

To be fair, we're pretty close to the bottom of the barrel. Given that Bartram and Evans withdrew from the squad for injury, everyone left at Casey is either nowhere near ready, or plays in a role that would upset the team balance. Not sure who else is really missing out, per se.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Melbourne vs Hawthorn Round 18, 2011 - Experience Stats

Total games played by Team

Demons - 1,372

Hawks – 1,897

Average games played per player

Demons - 62

Hawks – 86

Average Height of Teams

Demons - 188cm

Hawks – 186cm

Average Weight of Teams

Demons - 86kg

Hawks – 86kg

Average games played by category

0-49

Demons - 23 / 12 (average games/number of players)

Hawks - 18 / 8

50-99

Demons - 72 / 4

Hawks - 80 / 4

100+

Demons – 135 / 6

Hawks - 158 / 10

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited July 23, 2011 by Rusty Nails

[titan_uranus 25,000]

To be fair, we're pretty close to the bottom of the barrel. Given that Bartram and Evans withdrew from the squad for injury, everyone left at Casey is either nowhere near ready, or plays in a role that would upset the team balance. Not sure who else is really missing out, per se.

I only had two names in mind, to be honest, MacDonald and Bennell. Not that Bennell really deserves a spot either, but there is at least the possibility of a future for Bennell, but in my mind there's no future in Bate or Dunn.

Actually, I'd prefer to see TMac getting a run than Bate.

Point is (and I think this is clear lol), I don't like Bate and Dunn.