The "Best Available" challenge

[old55 23,626]

There's a lot of talk about "best available" when drafting and I confess to being a supporter - I'd prefer we choose the better player over the needs player, I think in the long run that should deliver a better result when combined with trading for need. But what really is "better" when you're not comparing the same attributes - there's talls, smalls, X-factor, sure things ...

I thought a little exercise might be in order - we've had some early draft picks recently, how about ranking our players who will be under 23 at the start of the 2011 season in your draft order if they made up this year's draft pool. I've listed them in actual draft order:

1-Watts, 1-Scully, 2-Trengove, 4-Morton, 11-Gysberts, 12-Frawley, 14-Grimes, 17-Blease, 18-Tapscott, 19-Strauss, 20-Maric, 30-Petterd, 34-Gawn, 35-Bennell, 46-Garland, 50-Fitzpatrick, 51-Jetta, 64-Bail, 66-McNamara, PSD1-Jurrah, RD1-McKenzie, RD19-Wonaeamirri, RD34-Spencer

Put them in draft order if that was this year's pool.

Edited October 18, 2010 by old55

[John Dee 445]

Jurrah should be removed from this discussion as he was not available to be drafted in the National Draft. He had to get special dispensation from the Commission to get into the Pre-Season Draft; where we were surreptiously waiting, courtesy of Chris Johnson(at least that is what I tell Carlton supporters).

[old55 23,626]

Jurrah should be removed from this discussion as he was not available to be drafted in the National Draft. He had to get special dispensation from the Commission to get into the Pre-Season Draft; where we were surreptiously waiting, courtesy of Chris Johnson(at least that is what I tell Carlton supporters).

Just rank them in your order now

Edit: Jurrah is actually the most interesting to place IMO

Edited October 18, 2010 by old55

[H_T 3,049]

There's a lot of talk about "best available" when drafting and I confess to being a supporter - I'd prefer we choose the better player over the needs player, I think in the long run that should deliver a better result when combined with trading for need. But what really is "better" when you're not comparing the same attributes - there's talls, smalls, X-factor, sure things ...

I thought a little exercise might be in order - we've had some early draft picks recently, how about ranking our players who will be under 23 at the start of the 2011 season in your draft order if they made up this year's draft pool. I've listed them in actual draft order:

1-Watts, 1-Scully, 2-Trengove, 4-Morton, 11-Gysberts, 12-Frawley, 14-Grimes, 17-Blease, 18-Tapscott, 19-Strauss, 20-Maric, 30-Petterd, 34-Gawn, 35-Bennell, 46-Garland, 50-Fitzpatrick, 51-Jetta, 64-Bail, 66-McNamara, PSD1-Jurrah, RD1-McKenzie, RD19-Wonaeamirri, RD34-Spencer

Put them in draft order if that was this year's pool.

Fair point.

Frawley, Scully, Jurrah, Grimes, Trengove, Watts, Garland, Morton, McKenzie, Petterd, Bail, Gysberts, Bennell, Wonaeamirri, Jetta, Blease, Tapscott, Spencer, Gawn, Fitzpatrick, Strauss, Maric, McNamara.

Easier said than done. Jurrah was a tricky one.

*Disclaimer...I haven't put alot of thought into it.

edit: The top 6 could be shuffled around a bit. Watts could be higher. I reckon most of our top 6's will be pretty consistent. In saying that it, in a way it highlights and supports the importance of H's top 6 thread some time ago, in assessing our list's strengths.

Edited October 19, 2010 by High Tower
Forgot McNamara - sorry Tom.

[mauriesy 7,302]

Scully

Frawley

Trengove

Jurrah

Watts

Garland

Grimes

Petterd

Morton

McKenzie

Gysberts

Wonaeamirri

Tapscott

Bail

Bennell

Blease

Gawn

Spencer

Jetta

Strauss

Maric

Fitzpatrick

McNamara

Still difficult to separate actual achievement from potential. You could raffle the last nine spots.

[Axis of Bob 11,836]

It's not about where he was picked, it's about where he would theoretically be picked now. So he stays in.

Anyway, it's a very interesting challenge and one that is exceptionally difficult.

Scully

Watts

Jurrah

Trengove

Frawley

Grimes

Morton

Garland

Gysberts

McKenzie

Blease

Tapscott

Bennell

Petterd

Spencer

Fitzpatrick

Strauss

Gawn

Wonaeamirri

Bail

Maric

Jetta

McNamara

There are some really, really tough ones in there to rate. What is important to note is that if this were to be a draft then the top 7 or 8 would be pretty much unprecendented in terms of talent. That leaves me with a lot of hope for the future.

But it really is a difficult question and you can see exactly why recruiters have such a hard time rating players and why some rate them differently to others. If you had to choose who was pick one, and you missed out on Liam Jurrah, then how would you feel? Alternatively, if you took Jurrah then how would you feel about missing Scully? Or Watts. Or Trengove. Or the AA Frawley. Or Grimes etc.

The hardest thing, though, was rating players like Blease, Gawn, Fitzpatrick and Spencer. These players have so much development left in them that you just don't know where they're going to end up. Will they plateau and never quite be up to the level, or will they continue their development - and then where do they stop? Does Blease become Aker, or does he become Alex Gilmour? Does Gawn become Sandilands, or Brendan Van Shaik? Does Spencer become Jolly, or Shane Neaves? Does Fitzpatrick become Tippett, or any one of a number of skinny ruck/forwards that you never hear of again?

[H_T 3,049]

But it really is a difficult question and you can see exactly why recruiters have such a hard time rating players and why some rate them differently to others. If you had to choose who was pick one, and you missed out on Liam Jurrah, then how would you feel? Alternatively, if you took Jurrah then how would you feel about missing Scully? Or Watts. Or Trengove. Or the AA Frawley. Or Grimes etc.

The hardest thing, though, was rating players like Blease, Gawn, Fitzpatrick and Spencer. These players have so much development left in them that you just don't know where they're going to end up. Will they plateau and never quite be up to the level, or will they continue their development - and then where do they stop? Does Blease become Aker, or does he become Alex Gilmour? Does Gawn become Sandilands, or Brendan Van Shaik? Does Spencer become Jolly, or Shane Neaves? Does Fitzpatrick become Tippett, or any one of a number of skinny ruck/forwards that you never hear of again?

I found it difficult for the same reasons. And why I had the like of Wonna & Jetta in front of the likes of Blease & Tapscott, is because I know what we're going to get with the former; given old55's task for 'this draft'. Whilst Blease & Tapscott despite promising reports is somewhat an unknown in my book. Even though my hunch/forecast tells me the latter two might well be better players.

[Roost It 1,434]

Jeez, we've got a fair list don't we!

[jacey 333]

1 Watts

2 Frawley

3 Jurrah

4 Trengove

5 Scully

6 Grimes

Garland

Gysberts

McKenzie

Morton

Petterd

Bennell

Wonaeamirri

Blease

Tapscott

Gawn

Bail

Jetta

Spencer

Strauss

Maric

Fitzpatrick

McNamara

Watts is the best talent we have. Frawley stitches up the bookends. A lot of ppl will argue Jurrah as most talented but i think Watts and Frawley will be more important.

Despite placing Watts and Frawley one and 2, I still maintain best talent available rather then reaching for a tall. If both players are scouted to have equal ceilings, go for the tall but happy to take another mid.

[CarnTheDees 52]

PSD1-Jurrah

12-Frawley

14-Grimes

1-Scully

2-Trengove

30-Petterd

1-Watts

46-Garland

RD19-Wonaeamirri

35-Bennell

11-Gysberts

RD1-McKenzie

4-Morton

64-Bail

18-Tapscott

51-Jetta

...

The rest

...

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Great topic.

Scully

Frawley

Jurrah

Trengove

Watts

Grimes

Morton

Garland

Gysberts

McKenzie

Blease

Tapscott

Bennell

Petterd

Spencer

Fitzpatrick

Strauss

Gawn

Wonaeamirri

Bail

Maric

Jetta

McNamara

Ummed and ahhed over the top 5

[e25 5]

I was going to post one, but I reckon Rhino has it.

But what does this list tell us..?

[Radar Detector 1,347]

Watts

Frawley

Scully

Grimes

Morton

Jurrah

Trengove

Gysberts

Petterd

Garland

McKenzie

Blease

Tapscott

Gawn

Fitzpatrick

Bail

Bennell

Wonaeamirri

Spencer

Strauss

Jetta

Maric

McNamara

Incredibly tough exercise, not least because of the varying degrees of development in some players with similar body types, for example talls like Frawley vs Watts. Had to make a call based on where I would see them all at the same age.

Edited October 19, 2010 by Deemolition

[Hannabal 4]

Scully

Watts

Trengove

Frawley

Grimes

Jurrah

Morton

Gysberts

Blease

Petterd

Garland

McKenzie

Tapscott

Bail

Wonaeamirri

Bennell

Fitzpatrick

Gawn

Strauss

Maric

Jetta

Spencer

McNamara

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Scully

Jurrah

Frawley

Trengove

Grimes

Watts

Petterd

Tapscott

McKenzie

Garland

Wonaeamirri

Gysberts

Bennell

Blease

Morton

Bail

Fitzpatrick

Gawn

Jetta

Spencer

Maric

Strauss

McNamara

[jayceebee31 761]

Jurrah

Frawley

Gawn

Grimes

Trengove

Tapscott

Scully

Watts

Morton

Gysberts

McKenzie

Petterd

Garland

Wonaeamirri

Bail

Bennell

Blease

Spencer

McNamara

Strauss

Fitzpatrick

Jetta

Maric

One of the hardest tasks that I have done..probably miles out when we look at thisagain in 10 years or so..just shows how much talent we currently have and we did not iclude Jones etc..whom I thought qualified..

Edited October 19, 2010 by jayceebee31

[old55 23,626]

Scully

Watts

Frawley

Trengove

Jurrah

Grimes

Garland

Morton

Gysberts

Blease

McKenzie

Bennell

Tapscott

Fitzpatrick

Gawn

Spencer

Bail

Wonaeamirri

Petterd

Maric

Strauss

Jetta

McNamara

=========

B: Bennell Frawley Bail

Grimes Garland Morton

M: Spencer McKenzie Scully

Blease Gysberts Trengove

F: Tapscott Watts Petterd

Fitzpatrick Jurrah Wonaeamirri

I: Maric Strauss Jetta McNamara Gawn

Edited October 19, 2010 by old55

[mauriesy 7,302]

Jurrah

Frawley

Gawn

Grimes

Trengove

Tapscott

Scully

Watts

If the players listed were in the pool for the 2010 draft, I'd struggle to see how Gawn would go at #3, given that he was #34 last year, is still overcoming injury and hasn't yet played an AFL game. Others (e.g. Watts, Trengove, Scully, Grimes etc.) would have to go higher, surely?

[e25 5]

Well, you see, Gawn is tall which means he's a certainty to be just as good as Sandilands, who is also very tall.

Anyway, besides this being a fun ego-feeding exercise, what does it tell us about our list or about the concept of "best available"..?

edit: fixing up the iPhone auto-incorrect...

Edited October 19, 2010 by E25

[Roost It 1,434]

Scully

Frawley

Watts

Trengove

Grimes

Jurrah

Morton

Garland

Mckenzie

Gysberts

Petterd

Bail

Wonaeamirri

Tapscott

Bennell

Jetta

Fitzpatrick

Gawn

Strauss

Maric

Spencer

McNamara

[Deeoldfart 8,035]

Interesting hypothetical, and damn difficult to complete!

Mine:

1. Frawley: KPDs are not easy to find in the draft, and are vital to team success. Chip has already proved himself to be a top-liner.

2. Scully: Absolute gun midfielders are worth their weight in gold.

3. Watts: KPFs are also critical to team success and hard to find in the draft. Jack has already shown enough to suggest to me that he will be very good. His versatity is also an asset.

4. Jurrah: Has the X-factor in spades, and applies it consistently. Something you just can't teach.

5. Grimes: Has all the attributes of an excellent leader.

6. Trengove: Hard working, highly skilled and consistent mid. Every team needs a few of them.

7. Petterd: Hard bodied, strong marking, sound kicking medium forward. Very important ingredient in successful teams. Ricky wouldn't have ranked nearly so high on my list 12 months ago.

8. Garland: Smooth, pacy, reliable defender. Can play short or tall which is a huge asset.

9. Gysberts: Ball magnet, in-and-under mid with excellent hands. All top teams need one.

10. Mckenzie: Inside mid who works his backside off and tackles like a Demon. Complements our more classy mids.

11. Morton: Height and endurance could make him special, and very difficult to match up on, but needs to bulk-up to improve his contested work.

12. Fitzpatrick: Tall and agile goalkicking and ruck prospect. Top teams must have one, especially with the new interchange rules. Difficult to jag a good one in the draft.

13. Blease: Outstanding pace and long kicking could complement our array of developing mids to a tee. I really liked him before he was drafted, and havn't changed my mind.

14. Wonaemirri: Another forward with a touch of the x-factor.

15. Gawn: As per Fitz. and probably would have ranked ahead of him if it hadn't been for his pre-draft ACL.

16. Tapscott: Our Paul Chapman equivalent? Very valuable if he turns out half as good.

17 to 23. Bail, Bennell, Spencer, Strauss, Jetta, McNamara, Maric: Foot-soldiers, but every team needs them.

(edit: typos. ..... and there's probably more).

Edited October 19, 2010 by Deeoldfart

[Jordie_tackles 354]

Watts, Frawley, Scully, Trengove, Grimes, Morton, Mckenzie, Gysberts, Petterd, Garland, wonnaemirri, Bennell, Blease, Tapscott, Strauss, Gawn, Fitzpatrick, Bail, Jetta, Maric, Spencer, Mcnamara

This is hard, we have seen some play others havnt.... how can we rate the “potential” of Gawn, Blease, Strauss, Tapscott and Fitzpatrick when they havnt played?

We know what some are capable of so can judge them, but others we don’t know if they justify their spot or not?

Anyway thats my order.

Blease and maybe tapscott may be higher if they had played games at this stage

[H_T 3,049]

But what does this list tell us..?

From what has been posted so far, I think we can collectively identify our top 6 players at present. U/23 top 6 that is.

[beelzebub 23,380]

Frawley

Jurrah

Scully

Watts

Trengove

Grimes

Petterd

Gysberts

Garland

McKenzie

raffle the rest lol

[e25 5]

From what has been posted so far, I think we can collectively identify our top 6 players at present. U/23 top 6 that is.

And, bar Jurrah (for obvious reasons) those top 6 are all high draft picks.

Does that not say we should go for the best available players at those early picks, because they will force their way into the side and become one of our best regardless of what position they play..?

Possibly.

Read into it what you will.

But I don't think any of those players were picked based on needs.