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In a positive note I do need to give a shout out to McVee and Bowey. Along with Salem they are the smartest players in our side and the most skilled. We need the ball in these three guys hands as much as possible and potentially need one to play a bit further up the ground to give us some better looks going inside 50.

Fatigue certainly is a factor...I'm tired of watching us kick points.

Fatigue is a moot point I reckon. And to he honest so is the connection and forward issues palaver. Though it didn't help having three super talls in Brown, Grundy and gawn in such horrendous conditions. Or losing our best kick for goal early for that matter. We didn't lose because of fatigue or game plan, structure, set up, etc etc. We lost that game away with our woeful kicking for goals. Again. It really is a simple as that. We dominated that game, and should have won it easliy. We smashed them in every key stat, including shots for goal. Twenty shots at goal in those conditions is fine. Particularly when the opposition could only manage 12. The expected score of 77 -43 tells the tale. A five goal win turned into a loss because we miss shots on goal we should make. Bottom line, we have too many poor kicks. Wet weather exacerbates that huge issue. The winning goal by kelly was the perfect example of how good technique stands up under pressure and in terrible conditions. And our ball handling skills are also a big worry, again exacerbated by wet weather. Even tracc fumbles way too often.

Probably best.

I have a lot of sympathy for our defenders, who are absolutely dominating, only to watch our forwardline break down so spectacularly at the other end. Bowey kicking a goal yesterday was just so ironic. Of course one of our most talented ball users who is of course a defender, goes forward and nails a shot on goal. He must be wondering WTAF is going on. It might be time to switch things up and look to push Bowey or McVee to a wing and/or half forward, because frankly if I have to keep watching the dysfunctional mess that is our forwardline, I am going to poke both my eyes out with a hot stick.

Unfortunately there will not be a Podcast dissecting the Demons vs Giants game. I’m currently overseas and the internet where I am is more inaccurate than the Demons. I was barely able to watch the last half of the game and I can only use Demonland when switching over to Data Roaming and half the time it is 3G or Edge speeds. Apologies to our listeners but we will be back next week.

Just put Petty at chf and bring Tomlinson in.

Appreciate your update. I am fearing he won't play again this year and have resigned myself to that fact, along with our chances of winning a flag slipping away. I just hope it is not an injury that will impact him long term, because he is so important to us. Fingers crossed it's something he can get right and come back cherry ripe in 2024. Please pass on all the good healing vibes from every Melbourne supporter. I think he is one player that is universally regarded as one of our very very best and most important! As for the vitriol, I think it's only as bad as you take it. There is as much good analysis mixed in with obvious and understandable frustration, as there is out and out rubbish. I am sure the players are feeling very frustrated, and so it is only fair that supporters feel the same. I can count on one hand the spiteful comments I've seen here post match to be honest. Most of it is people trying to make sense of the recent poor form, especially forward of centre. As far as footy forums go, this has to be one of the best ones for analytical discussion vs pure [censored] ratio. I don't know that you'd ever log on to a Carlton or Richmond supporter forum!

When is the AFL going to get with the times and determine wins based on expected scores. We’d be unstoppable.

The game felt like my younger days on the nightclub scene. Spend two hours working up the courage to chat to a pretty lady in the corner and as soon as you take a couple of steps in her direction bang, some dude in a really tight T-shirt starts with the Travolta moves next to her.

90 minutes ago I swore off football forever. 5 minutes ago I brought a $60 seat for this match. [censored] off Demons. I love you.

My issue is that we haven't settled on a best 23 and it's July! I don't know what our best mix is. Do you? and more worryingly, do our coaches? I just don't understand why we persevered with Petty forward, only to throw him down back again just as Tomlinson was finding good form and we were starting to get back to our defensive best. And it's not as if Petty is setting the world on fire down back. He's been good, but it feels counterproductive when we have someone else who can step into that role, and a forwardline screaming for anything resembling quality.

Don’t lump me in with others who perhaps approach the topic with “shallow” analysis. I’ve done my best to post my views in detail and with reference to the same material that is used to argue we must necessarily have engaged in a heavy loading phase over the last few weeks. It feels to me as though you are reasoning backwards. Your subsequent post to this one takes our last 5 scores and says “look at these low scores, that clearly shows we are fatigued”. There’s a link missing in between. As I’ve said before, I fully accept that we carefully structure our training loads week to week. What I don’t presently accept is that we’ve engaged in a loading block to such an extent that it significantly explains our poor performances of late. In your view, is it consistent with loading/fatigue as a significant factor that we dominated time in possession, CPs, clearances, time in forward half, forward half turnovers, and scoring shots? When I said “it’s not loading”, I meant it. Our biggest issue right now isn’t loading. It’s how we choose to structure and play.

I'm sorry but it's just a nonsense. The psychology of 'trying to hard' when you're losing and getting desperate and the Melbourne 'red myst' thing that we revert to is much more relevant to our inaccuracy. Not fatigue. The fatigue argument just doesn't fly. You can't be winning almost every stat line against opponents but losing games and putting that down to mainly fatigue. A fatigued side is not dominating stat lines. There are 10 things I'd list as problems before bringing fatigue into the conversation. We have been losing the same way for over a year. Longer even. If you actually averted your attention, you'd see the problem areas that most see. And you'd realise that fatigue is always present in varying degrees across seasons. And it simply doesn't need the kind of microscopic looking over that you continue to give it. This is a game plan, list and personnel issue. It is as simple as that.

Whatever was in the first few pages it is still no reason to generalise and say many poster's analysis is shallow. Posters were clearly disappointed and angry. Let them vent. It is what a fan forum is about. Thank you for not putting me in the 'sticking your head in the sand' category.

Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney (Round 16, 2023) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231606 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 62.9 66.4 -3.5 Kicking Efficiency 50.0 56.8 -6.8 Metres Gained 6679 6582 +97 Inside 50s 73 46 +27 Shots At Goal 26 12 +14 Shots Per Inside 50 35.6 26.1 +9.5 Contested Possessions 187 143 +44 Ground Ball Gets 133 108 +25 Intercepts 113 108 +5 Intercept Marks 19 12 +7 Centre Clearances 14 2 +12 Stoppage Clearances 33 26 +7 Contested Marks 6 4 +2 Marks Inside 50 5 3 +2 Hitouts 34 24 +10 Hitouts To Advantage 8 9 -1 Tackles 57 72 -15 Tackles Inside 50 17 5 +12 Def One On One Loss % 28.6 11.1 +17.5 Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 182 162 2 192 182 3 173 225 4 196 181 Match 186 187 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average* Jack Viney 26 65 53.7 Alex Neal-Bullen 28 64 50.1 Angus Brayshaw 23 52 28.3 Christian Petracca 21 47 49.8 Kysaiah Pickett 23 47 42.1 James Harmes 24 47 36.3 Joel Smith 20 43 27.8 Christian Salem 13 31 31.7 Lachie Hunter 15 30 24.0 Tom Sparrow 13 28 44.1 Kade Chandler 15 28 32.3 Ed Langdon 13 28 28.2 Brodie Grundy 14 28 26.9 Jake Melksham 13 27 15.0 Trent Rivers 8 22 24.0 Jake Lever 13 22 13.3 Harrison Petty 8 19 20.9 Ben Brown 8 19 10.8 Max Gawn 8 17 22.1 Jake Bowey 8 14 20.5 Steven May 5 13 14.1 Judd McVee 7 12 18.9 Bayley Fritsch 0 0 19.0 * Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player. Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 61% 39% 2 57% 43% 3 63% 37% 4 52% 48% Match 60% 40% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarterly values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Category For Against Diff G B T G B T Kick-in 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1 Centre Bounce 1 0 6 0 0 0 +6 Stoppage (Other) 1 6 12 1 0 6 +6 Turnover 3 9 27 6 4 40 -13 Category For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in 0 2.9 1 2.7 Centre Bounce 6 10.7 0 7.1 Stoppage (Other) 12 21.9 6 21.7 Turnover 27 54.1 39 39.3 Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in D50 0 2.9 1 2.7 Centre Bounce Centre 6 10.7 0 7.1 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.4 0 2.1 Stoppage (Other) Centre 1 2.8 0 0.9 Stoppage (Other) Wing 3 10.7 6 6.6 Stoppage (Other) F50 8 7.9 0 12.0 Turnover D50 1 10.3 7 5.5 Turnover Centre 0 8.2 0 5.4 Turnover Wing 14 29.0 26 20.3 Turnover F50 12 6.7 6 8.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season D50 1 13.6 8 10.3 Centre 7 21.7 0 13.4 Wing 17 39.7 32 26.9 F50 20 14.6 6 20.1 Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season 11 33.5 15 23.5 Shots at goal Team Shots G B T Acc. General Play Melbourne 17 2 10 22 11.8 Greater Western Sydney 6 3 3 21 50.0 Set Position Melbourne 9 3 4 22 33.3 Greater Western Sydney 6 4 1 25 66.7 Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 % Christian Petracca 12 75 66.2 74.6 Angus Brayshaw 12 75 18.5 16.0 Jack Viney 11 69 68.5 74.6 Max Gawn 9 56 47.5 65.5 Tom Sparrow 8 50 47.8 32.2 Brodie Grundy 7 44 56.6 83.7 James Harmes 3 19 27.8 14.6 Trent Rivers 2 12 4.8 0.0 Kysaiah Pickett 0 0 12.2 1.3 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 3.6 3.5 Harrison Petty 0 0 1.1 0.0 Clayton Oliver 82.8 86.5 James Jordon 19.0 0.2 Tom McDonald 5.4 0.0 Jacob van Rooyen 5.3 Josh Schache 0.0 13.8 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2023 % 2022 % Max Gawn 48 56 44.1 57.8 Brodie Grundy 34 40 49.8 77.4 Ben Brown 3 4 3.7 3.6 Harrison Petty 0 0 2.5 0.0 Steven May 0 0 0.1 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0.1 0.1 Jacob van Rooyen 9.6 Tom McDonald 8.9 7.0 Josh Schache 6.7 13.4 Clayton Oliver 0.0 0.0 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2023) To Adv. % (2022) Max Gawn 48 17 6 31.6 33.6 Brodie Grundy 34 16 2 31.8 30.2 Ben Brown 3 1 0 0.0 14.3 Harrison Petty 0 0 0 22.2 Tom McDonald 25.0 33.3 Jacob van Rooyen 16.7 Josh Schache 33.3 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Kieren Briggs 58 20 8 Lachlan Keeffe 27 4 1 Expected score from Champion Data 77 - 43

Extremely poor list and player management cost us a chance at a flag in 2022 (historically dominant Casey season with no reward for those players while the senior team was full of niggles and underdone players) and it looks like history is repeating in 2023.

I get the disappointment, but saying things like ‘I give up’ and ‘I don’t care’ simply isn’t true. It’s after 10 on a Sunday night and you’re on Demonland. I’ve got some bad news for you. You care a lot.

With no outlet for my considerable emotional burden this week, I’m assuming I’ll be able to put in a claim to Demonland to pay for my counsellor expenses?

Lot of Kozzie sledging on here, just be aware: 22 goals, behind only Fritsch (29) Ave 5.9 score involvements, behind only Trac & Clarry 12 goal assists, behind only Trac (20) 22 marks i50, behind only Fritsch (30) 4.5 ave tackles, behind only Viney (5.8), Clarry (5.6), ANB (5). He’s outright first for tackles i50. He flies for some marks he shouldn’t, takes shots at goal he could pass, sometimes sprays some kicks but he ain’t the problem and anyone who thinks he’s going anywhere near Casey is kidding themselves.

If you saw him walking off the ground at half time, you could see how upset he was. He was visibly distraught. At this point in his career there is absolutely no doubt in mind it is mental. All in his head. This is a guy who kicked an impossible soccer goal in a grand final when everything was on the line. He is a NSM and one of the best players in the game. He needs to seek help to get over the mental demons that are haunting him around goal, because nothing he does at training seems to be working when he’s out on the field.

Not as bad as last year with some exposure to JVR, Smith, Laurie, and Rivers going into the middle. Not enough though. But now they have added their ‘5th dimensional’ dropping of in form players like Brown in Rd 4 and Tomlinson last week. This FD needs to refocus on the simple; what is the most straightforward decision to make.

Dee Listing for those curious 70 - Petraca 40 - Clarry 35 - Viney 17 - Lever 16 - May 15 - Gawn 12 - Grundy 10 - Langdon 9 - Pickett 7 - Gus 6 - Chin & Rivers 5 - Hunter 4 - Pig & Salem 2 - Tmac & Fritta 1 - Bowser

Thanks for the info. Please send best wishes to Pauline and pass on to Fritta that all DL looks forward to his eventual return and good luck with his rehab.

Came here to say exactly this. Fatigue can't be to blame for 5.15 when we're at +67 Disposals, +27 i50s, +10 Hitouts, +20 Clearances, +44 Contested possessions, etc, etc. It's madness to suggest it is. If we were fatigued, we'd be getting smashed all over the place, but we aren't. It's skills, gameplan, coaching or players. Perhaps even a bit of all 4. I'm bitterly disappointed with the loss but it's hard to say the players didn't gave it their all when looking at the stats. It's a shame but it really is a problem that should be fixable, the million dollar question is can they do it in time?

You cannot drop Kosi. No matter how 'down' on form he is, he is one of only two forwards in our side who can make something out of nothing, and is a reliable kick for goal. Considering the other one might not play again this season, if you drop Kosi you might as well concede that we won't kick more than 5 goals a game.

Bloke needs to see a different sports psych. I know the club has one, but he needs external help. It is completely in his head. He also needs to get to work on his deficiencies. Like, seriously work on them. Tracc loves being a personality of the game, but right now he needs to look at fine tuning his skills, which may mean focusing solely on football. I am all for players having a life outside of football, but not when they are out of form to the degree he is. I will probably cop heat for this post, but his primary job is to play football. He has talent but knows he is not performing to the level he is capable of

I seem to remember at the beginning of last year, (about 3 rounds in?), King was using our forward line as an example of why we are so dangerous and hard to defend against. It was footage of essentially our entire forward line in constant motion which stretched out defenders so they couldn't converge on the incoming ball. Options everywhere. Why did that stop? Now I watch Melbourne and it's majority bomb it 20 meters out with very little movement on the whole. Maybe get that cracking again? Get one of Bowie/Mcvee/Salem up the ground to allow for better entries to our forwards and for gods sake go back to the method that was lauded at the beginning of last year?

He's heard the same press conference 30 times because the problem is still the same. Its been going on for 4 years bar the last 6 weeks of 2021 He's a defensive coach that consistently says 'our method keeps us in games and gives us a chance to win' He is totally inflexible in his approach and he and Stafford have NFI about how to manage a forward line.

Bairstow was out. The English reaction is disgusting and so hypocritical given the Starc catch saga yesterday. But it is helping them try to win the match. They are heaping the pressure on us and Stokes has taken the liberty. Can't bowl Green if he's going to bowl like that, but we can't afford not to bowl Green without Lyon. We really needed Starc to hold that catch off Green's bowling to get rid of Stokes. We might not get another chance and if he keeps striking it like he has been, we are a bowler down and only going to offer up more bad balls. Truth be told, it's been an incredible performance for us to even have had this enormous lead. We've batted in the worst conditions and bowled in the best batting conditions, all whilst being a bowler down. England never should have fallen this far behind. But by virtue of how far behind they fell, if they do get up and win from here (they're nearly favourites right now given Stokes' form), they are going to ride the "injustice" of the Bairstow dismissal and the high of coming from behind all through the series. The Ashes is almost certainly going to be decided in the next 2 hours.

We can't keep playing forwards because they can defend, if they're not hitting the scoreboard enough: Smith, ANB, Chandler, Grundy, previously Spargo. We obviously need a mix, but JVR was bringing sufficient forward half defensive pressure but with the ability to be a forward. Smith brings forward pressure but with no real forward ability. JVR brings at least equal, if not better, structure than Smith too. With Fritsch out, we need natural forwards. At the moment it's Brown and Pickett. The rest are in there to be role players. That mix is wrong.

In centre corridor Out Boundary

Pretty close the mark with the exception of Rivers - thought he was good.

Who honestly cares about Gawn being ‘Gawn’? We dominate games and can’t finish - that is not on the ruckmen. Jumping at shadows all over the place… We need to commit to better decision making and delivery into the forward line, and create space and structure to maximise our strengths. Its not easy but it is simple.

It’s both. The expected score metric tells you that we’re not scoring what we’re expected to score based from the shots we’re generating. We’re taking too many shots on angles, but we’re missing too many shots that aren’t so hard.

Goodwins Coaching is sub par ATM, coupled with selection stubbornness will be another wasted year with talent getting older. Goodwin has got our attacking game awfully wrong. The club is going backwards... Death by a thousand cuts.

But, again, 77 points from 73 I50s is not good. 45 is just awful but 77 is still revealing a poor connection forward.

Brown had more touches than Melksham and Smith combined. He also had more touches than Riccardi and Hogan - obviously we had more ball and time in forward half but still, it shows he was working hard to get involved in conditions which weren't ideal at all. There is zero point to bringing him back for that game, getting that performance, and then dropping him for a game at Marvel. It would outrank the decisions to drop Tomlinson and JVR. He will play this weekend, with JVR either taking Fritsch's spot or replacing Smith. We need to see if a Brown-JVR combo can work.

66 points The cumulative points we have beaten by over our 6 losses! The biggest 2 losses being 27 and 15 points Being in control for the majority of these games Running out of time to get it right

Binman, most people in this forum respect your analysis and views and what you say here is 100% correct IMO. But the question facing us now is how do we fix it? Just rotating personnel through our forward line until we stumble onto some connection there seems a purile response to a very real problem that last year saw us exit finals in straight sets. Only 2 of our goals yesterday came from our permanent forwards the others coming from bowey (backman) grundy(ruck) and langdon (wing). That is clearly not a return thats going to win us games. Yes, it didn't help that our most reliable goal kicker was subbed off early in the first quarter but he is only one player and if you disregard his behind only 6 of the 20 shots we had on goal came from our genuine forwards in Chandler,Picket ANB,Smith and BBB. It seems to me that the problem is not just inaccurate kicking but also how many quality looks our forwards are actually getting at the goals. I dont believe BBB was part of the problem yesterday. It was not a day for big forwards and Hogan didnt get on the scoreboard at all at the other end. But it was perfect conditions for the smalls and with 73 inside 50 they clearly under performed.

If you cant see a connection issue, our utterly clueless fwd set ups and a return to down. the line bomb it to the fwd pocket then I can't help you.

Kozzie is copping it hard on here. Not in great form I'm not disputing that but even with that in mind he was our best small forward yesterday and still managed to make a couple of things happen to get us back into the game. Drop someone else.

Mate, if it was a huge factor, you'd be seeing similar results across all top teams. Which just isn't happening? The way you pick and choose what you see to suit this bs narrative is just nauseating. And you're at the same time talking Collingwood's form down by suggesting the Suns are fatigued because 'this is what happens to them in the second half of the year'. Do you realise how silly that sounds?!? By your loading logic, it should be Collingwood who struggled up there against the Suns. And the Power and Brisbane should also be seeing a dip in performance.. You're living in an echo-chamber and finding whatever you want to suit your argument. The head in sand stuff is you!

Also ...why is fatigue any more a factor/excuse/contingent with the Dees and not 17 other clubs ? Its a furphy.

Not really on the players though. They were continuing to defend the way we set up to defend, by pressing up into the forward half. Absent a coaching directive, they weren't going to drop back into the D50 and have no influence unless GWS got the ball that deep. They were always going to sit high. IMO we press too high but once you accept that press, I think the blame for how sides score out the back is a coaching one, not a leadership or player one.

STOKES GONE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Agreed. He has the Pendlebury extra second ability and hits targets constantly. Very smart footballer. Give him a crack and who knows, he could be the answer going inside 50 we need.

Weekly post. McVee is wasted in the backline. Any danger of giving him a run thru the middle. If butchers like Harmes, Anb, Petracca are allowed to hit kicks inside 50, maybe let the one guy who actually cares about and is able to dispose effectively have a go. Yeh nah, maybe not.

We need new faces in the team. Been going to the well too much and it's time for a new look. Taj, Howes, Laurie, anyone. I want to see if these guys can play at all, at least there will be learnings.

How do you know it's not that simple. Give him 10 minutes. Change it up. What is stupid is doing the same thing with the same players and expecting different results. Clearly our ball use is a problem. His ball use is one of our best. I'm not asking to put Jake lever in there. What exactly would be the worst thing that would happen? Our whole game plan comes crashing down if he has 2 rotations on ball? Lol. When something isn't working try something different.. what exactly have the coaches tried that's different That's the point.